Rexy's Week 10 College...

CollegeKingRex

CollegeKingRex

CTG Regular
Made a few plays earlier today from Jaco. One is still good, with a writeup pilfered straight from the Gold Sheet on a game I made much higher...

'Though Memphis has shown incremental improvement under 2nd-year HC Justin Fuente, the fact remains the Tigers haven't yet learned how to win the close games and play a full four Qs. And so far, Memphis has only defeated one team that has a winning record since Fuente took over, which was the ugly 14-10 victory over Rice last year. That's not the case with 5-2 Cincy, which needs one more win to become bowl eligible. And with a rugged slate the rest of the way, HC Tommy Tuberville placing real extra importance on this one to assure a rewarding postseason trip. Aggressive Tiger D will try to apply pressure, but the stout Cincy OL has allowed a meager 5 sacks this year. And Bearcats' strong-armed, 6th-year sr. QB Brandon Kay has been more than OK, completing 70.2%, with 13 TDs and only 4 picks. Kay has developed solid rapport with 5-9 soph WR Shaq Washington, who has 31 catches over the last 4 games. And the inconsistent Memphis attack (20 ppg), under the guidance of still-learning RS frosh QB Paxton Lynch, will have trouble finding a rhythm vs. a fast, physical Cincy D ranked 8th nationally in yards allowed (286.9 ypg). Cincy players were upset with their lackluster effort in the 26-20 upset loss at South Florida, but look for an intense effort from rested Cincy on national TV.'

The play: Cincinnati -3 -105 and -2.5 flat combined medium to big

I have several more but I am shitfaced, hung over, sunburned and generally tired. So I'll post them tomorrow.

:shake:

GL to all this week...
 
Bout time you got your cobbler ass to the beach and got some sun and fun.....GL Rex.
 
I bet it again, these CRIS guys are stubborn as mules. And I am as well. This is now a big 4u bet at -1 (still good at the current -2). Bottom line, Cincy is the superior team with a bit of extra rest against a Memphis team that's just not ready to win games like this. Cincy is a bowl-caliber team, and Memphis is a 5-win type team. It won't be long, as this Fuentes has the ball going in the right direction, but not tonight, and now have to lay virtually nothing...
 
I just keep thinking about how Cincy shit the bed vs. Illinois, can't get it out of my head......
 
I just have to trust my numbers here. When I make it 8.5 or 9 and another guy I respect makes it 8.5 or 9, then the CRIS jackoffs open 5 and then slide it down inside 3, I feel I have to teach them a lesson. One of us will be right, it's just a numbers game. I sent Mike D a message about the horsies; spent about 4 hours today working on the Santa Anita Friday and Saturday cards, decided best way was to plunk down their $20 ransom for the all access shit. Hopefully he sends me his shit, and I can make some informed calls. I think I'm gonna go in on the Pick-6 with some guys, about $1500 deep or so, chop it up 8 or 10 or 15 ways, see if we can run into something.

:shake:
 
A little syndicate action for the Pick 6 is always a lot of fun and I used to do that with Mike and some of the guys back here. Hope you do well in the Breeders Rex.
 
:shake:
Thanks for pushing me over the edge Rex. I thought the line was super fishy and I tend to steer clear of those games when I get that feeling.
 
thanks fellas. Win by 13, miss a 44 yard field goal, turn the ball over inside the 10 and miss an extra point. I'd say I had much the best of it here.

PointX - if you do your own work and come up with your own numbers, the opposite should be true. You might win some and lose some, but my biggest bets come when the line gets further away from my price.

No plays tonight as of now.
 
one play for now.

346 Tulsa -3 medium. I guess the hatred of UT-San Antonio continues, as even with a big adjustment up in my power ratings after them ass-ramming me last week, i still made Tulsa more than a touchdown favorite. This looks like a mismatch to me at the line of scrimmage. Despite Tulsa disappointing and floundering all year, they still should be vastly superior to a start-up D-I program that lacks the depth and scholarships to compete for 60 minutes on the road. These two teams are not equal in terms of talent, so I expect the Hurricanes to finally give a performance worthy of their ability. The value is only on the favorite here after countless disappointing efforts has oddsmakers and bettors alike dismissing them. Green back at QB for Tulsa after missing the Tulane game should give them enough of a lift to get over this small impost.
 
373 Arkansas State +3.5 medium to big. Who made this line? Wrong team favored for sure despite Arky State's repeated struggles this season under first-year coach Harsin. The same type of talent gap exists that does in the previous game I discussed. ASU should not lose to South Bama under any circumstances, to be perfectly honest. I would be embarrassed to be a dog to that team and I am sure Harsin has been letting them know about it this week in practice, etc. An easy take.
 
GL Rex. Nice hit last night. I'm high on Tulsa this week as well.

Really appreciate all the work you put in here. Keep up the strong work
 
389 Okie State +125 ML small and +120 medium to big. Game is a cinch to go down if I'm reading the market right, and I believe the Cowboys will be the favorite at kickoff. I made them 5 point favorites, so it's an easy play at this price.
 
310 Troy State -3 small to medium. Browning has been the QB at Monrow for 13 years, he gets the Sun Belt Carlos Huerta award this year. He scares me, but Troy State is a superior team and should cover the small number at home.
 
CollegeKingRex said:
373 Arkansas State +3.5 medium to big. Who made this line? Wrong team favored for sure despite Arky State's repeated struggles this season under first-year coach Harsin. The same type of talent gap exists that does in the previous game I discussed. ASU should not lose to South Bama under any circumstances, to be perfectly honest. I would be embarrassed to be a dog to that team and I am sure Harsin has been letting them know about it this week in practice, etc. An easy take.
Click to expand...
GL here....hard to bet against SA

No play for me....USA has cost me a shit ton
 
348 Air Force.

Listen, I realize this team has one win and none against I-A comp but they are not nearly as bad as they are being rated, regardless of QB issues. A dog (at Grande) at home to the Army? What?

The play: AFA -106 medium ML.
 
Thoughts on Florida Atlantic please...... I saw some folks on Rivals talking about they wanted to back up the truck on Tulane, usually that's a sign to go the other way....
 
Against you in Lubbock Rex....eye test for me has Tech better than Okie State by a score....gl today
 
MCG - No real opinion on FAU, I made 4 before the turmoil and coaching change. don't see much there either, sharp money or sucker at this point

UNLV i made San Jose 4 on top, no strong opinion
 
397 Boise will be a play at some point, I missed a good price earlier fuckin with the horses. I assume the CRIS guys will push it back down and I will lay 7 flat or better medium.

I like Jorja some on paper, but I only made them 1 so could not lay that. Seems sharp both ways. I saw a stat I could not believe, the first time since 1929 or 1939 that both teams are entering off two straight-up losses. That's insane.
 
330 Georgia Tech will be a bet at -10, as I feel they will shove that down again. Pitt stinks and GT has played all the good teams already, there is still value there it seems.
 
Any thoughts on Clem, K St, Texas, WVU?

I like GT as well -- good luck on your plays, and thanks for all the info.
 
Texas -26.5 medium. These guys pushed it too far. Tejas going the right way these days.

Clempson no idea. K-State no idea. West By God Virginia is the computer/database side but i made game 12, who knows
 
thanks fellas, no thoughts on the Niffel today, tough card. I bet Redskins small only. Might play a 3-team teaser with Dallas, Carolina and Green Bay, as I see little to no chance of any of those teams losing.
 
CollegeKingRex said:
thanks fellas, no thoughts on the Niffel today, tough card. I bet Redskins small only. Might play a 3-team teaser with Dallas, Carolina and Green Bay, as I see little to no chance of any of those teams losing.
Click to expand...
I like Carolina today, think their defense has really improved from last year and figure Atl will have a hard time stopping their running game. Falcons have had a hard time running the ball too, and then of course all the injuries to their WR corps have really killed them. Did you do any good on the Breeders?
 
I had Declaration of War and Fort Larned in the big race, just missed a big cash there, one hell of a horse race that was, one of the best I've ever seen at the finish. I had Wise Dan big, betting him against the field in the matchups at CRIS everytime he was +105 or +110. He was always 4/5 on the tote, so while everyone else got back $3.60, I was making $4.20 and $4.40, it was pretty sweet.

Friday i won pretty good. Saturday started bad but did okay with the euros in the F&M Turf, tried to beat Groupie Doll, which didn't work, tried to beat Mizdirection which didn't work, got ran down at the wire in the Juvenile, stupidly left out Magician (another euro) in the Turf and was never in the sprint. Lost decent at the window but did better on matchups.
 
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