CollegeKingRex
CTG Regular
Hi all, hoping for another profitable season in this shit, so GL to us all.
First, a word about the Niffel.
All the way until this morning, I had ONE BET this week on this shit, and it was the team who drafted first in April.
That shows you the level of confidence I have in trying to beat these markets. And I've worked harder than 99 percent of you on it - many dozens of hours of off-season research. So proceed with caution if you're trying to do this to win serious money. I would recommend you try beating the WNBA or weaker markets elsewhere if you want to make a good living in this business - and NOT the Niffel. Hell, you saw what happened to make the game land on the number Thursday night. Who can handicap that? It happens more and more every year.
The schedule-maker knew what he was doing when he sat down and made 14 of the 16 matchups involving all teams where the line is less than six points (the Thurs and Sun night games being the exceptions).
The Bucs finished 2-14 in Lovie Smith's first season, but sprinkled in there was a lot of bad luck and close losses. The Bucs had a Pythag win of 4.4 and performed at or around league average DVOA six times in 2014. Simply put, because of a league-average defense that should progress nicely in Year 2 of Smith's systems, Tampa is not a two-win team on paper this fall.
Tampa's defense won't be the issue, especially not today, facing a rookie quarterback and a woeful offense at home. The offense is where progress is needed. They were a good bit worse than everyone else last season, and penalties (yards and amount committed) were worst in the league by a great deal. Football Outsiders is bearish on the Bucs, but I'll quote a paragraph that they said explaining why I am bullish and think they can compete to win the unusually weak NFC South.
'Last August, first-year offensive coordinatorJeff Tedford had to leave the team in the preseason forhealth reasons, leaving Marcus Arroyo (the offensive coordinatorat 1-11 Southern Miss in 2013) to assume Tedford’sposition. This year, the much more experienced Dirk Koetterbrings almost certain improvement just by virtue of not repeatingthe 2014 patch-job. Since 2010, Koetter’s offenses inJacksonville and Atlanta committed about seven fewer penaltiesthan the league average each year'
Vincent Jackson and Mike Evans should run roughshod over a Titans secondary that is average at best. Bringing in Dick LeBeau to help Ray Horton run the defense likely suspends the rebuild on that side of the ball for another season.
While each defensive coach has worked together going back to their Pittsburgh days, they run 3-4 defenses that are wildly differing. LeBeau's 3-4 places is a 2-gap one, relying on the OLB's for a pass rush in much the same way the old Titans 4-3 D-ends did. Horton's 3-4 had notable 1-gap elements and was not too dissimilar to the Gregg Williams 2013's 4-3. This transition will make it even harder for the Titans to enjoy sustained success on defense, particularly early in the season.
The Bucs have tried to surround Winston with usable pieces, as they've spent 12 draft choices on offense in the last two seasons. Running back Doug Martin returns healthy for the first time since his electric rookie season in 2013. Tennessee had the second-worst rush defense in the league last fall.
On the other side, Smith scoured the market for plug-and-play types for his Cover-2. On that side, the Bucs have two elite-level talents, both of which are much better than anyone Tennessee will have on defense (David and McCoy).
Bottom line, the line is just a field goal and the market is telling you that these teams are about the same on paper. I'm not buying it. I forsee the Titans to sink to the bottom of the barrel in the AFC South and think Tampa will flirt with .500. The run toward mediocrity starts today.
Prediction: Tampa Bay 27, Tennessee 16
The play: Tampa -3 medium
I honestly have no other plays and nothing that I really like much. Indy at -1 or better seems right; they always find a way to win close games (even if they don't cover, which they're not being asked to do one without the other today) and give the analytics guys and sharpies the big middle finger in the process. I like Buffalo to win the East, however, and the Bills can have success with high-ceiling QB Taylor picking on a secondary with just 4 DB's active and no Mathis.
Lean Packers as well, and Miami. Other than that, all home dogs have more appeal to me than anyone laying on the road. Denver is cheap and i would consider laying 4 but with the unknowns in the new system it's a tough one. Like Arizona a bit but Walters seems on the Saints, so I'll steer clear. Like Jags some but i think that's Billy's side also and the number is ruined. Jets number a tad high but I'm not interested in betting on McCown. I do like Houston pretty good and swapped it with a friend at +102, and am helping another guy book another guy who is betting high. He bet KC so I'll need Houston as my other sweat just to win. I'm okay with that; the Texans would be the only other team I would consider betting today.
GL!
:shake:
First, a word about the Niffel.
All the way until this morning, I had ONE BET this week on this shit, and it was the team who drafted first in April.
That shows you the level of confidence I have in trying to beat these markets. And I've worked harder than 99 percent of you on it - many dozens of hours of off-season research. So proceed with caution if you're trying to do this to win serious money. I would recommend you try beating the WNBA or weaker markets elsewhere if you want to make a good living in this business - and NOT the Niffel. Hell, you saw what happened to make the game land on the number Thursday night. Who can handicap that? It happens more and more every year.
The schedule-maker knew what he was doing when he sat down and made 14 of the 16 matchups involving all teams where the line is less than six points (the Thurs and Sun night games being the exceptions).
The Bucs finished 2-14 in Lovie Smith's first season, but sprinkled in there was a lot of bad luck and close losses. The Bucs had a Pythag win of 4.4 and performed at or around league average DVOA six times in 2014. Simply put, because of a league-average defense that should progress nicely in Year 2 of Smith's systems, Tampa is not a two-win team on paper this fall.
Tampa's defense won't be the issue, especially not today, facing a rookie quarterback and a woeful offense at home. The offense is where progress is needed. They were a good bit worse than everyone else last season, and penalties (yards and amount committed) were worst in the league by a great deal. Football Outsiders is bearish on the Bucs, but I'll quote a paragraph that they said explaining why I am bullish and think they can compete to win the unusually weak NFC South.
'Last August, first-year offensive coordinatorJeff Tedford had to leave the team in the preseason forhealth reasons, leaving Marcus Arroyo (the offensive coordinatorat 1-11 Southern Miss in 2013) to assume Tedford’sposition. This year, the much more experienced Dirk Koetterbrings almost certain improvement just by virtue of not repeatingthe 2014 patch-job. Since 2010, Koetter’s offenses inJacksonville and Atlanta committed about seven fewer penaltiesthan the league average each year'
Vincent Jackson and Mike Evans should run roughshod over a Titans secondary that is average at best. Bringing in Dick LeBeau to help Ray Horton run the defense likely suspends the rebuild on that side of the ball for another season.
While each defensive coach has worked together going back to their Pittsburgh days, they run 3-4 defenses that are wildly differing. LeBeau's 3-4 places is a 2-gap one, relying on the OLB's for a pass rush in much the same way the old Titans 4-3 D-ends did. Horton's 3-4 had notable 1-gap elements and was not too dissimilar to the Gregg Williams 2013's 4-3. This transition will make it even harder for the Titans to enjoy sustained success on defense, particularly early in the season.
The Bucs have tried to surround Winston with usable pieces, as they've spent 12 draft choices on offense in the last two seasons. Running back Doug Martin returns healthy for the first time since his electric rookie season in 2013. Tennessee had the second-worst rush defense in the league last fall.
On the other side, Smith scoured the market for plug-and-play types for his Cover-2. On that side, the Bucs have two elite-level talents, both of which are much better than anyone Tennessee will have on defense (David and McCoy).
Bottom line, the line is just a field goal and the market is telling you that these teams are about the same on paper. I'm not buying it. I forsee the Titans to sink to the bottom of the barrel in the AFC South and think Tampa will flirt with .500. The run toward mediocrity starts today.
Prediction: Tampa Bay 27, Tennessee 16
The play: Tampa -3 medium
I honestly have no other plays and nothing that I really like much. Indy at -1 or better seems right; they always find a way to win close games (even if they don't cover, which they're not being asked to do one without the other today) and give the analytics guys and sharpies the big middle finger in the process. I like Buffalo to win the East, however, and the Bills can have success with high-ceiling QB Taylor picking on a secondary with just 4 DB's active and no Mathis.
Lean Packers as well, and Miami. Other than that, all home dogs have more appeal to me than anyone laying on the road. Denver is cheap and i would consider laying 4 but with the unknowns in the new system it's a tough one. Like Arizona a bit but Walters seems on the Saints, so I'll steer clear. Like Jags some but i think that's Billy's side also and the number is ruined. Jets number a tad high but I'm not interested in betting on McCown. I do like Houston pretty good and swapped it with a friend at +102, and am helping another guy book another guy who is betting high. He bet KC so I'll need Houston as my other sweat just to win. I'm okay with that; the Texans would be the only other team I would consider betting today.
GL!
:shake:
