CollegeKingRex
CTG Regular
Off two very successful cards in a row, let's see if I can keep it rolling...
From bottom to top this time, or from first fight to last:
Who is Westcott to lay anything to Edgar Garcia? Westcott looks like your next door neighbor, assuming you live in Alberta like he does. He's coming off two losses in his only two UFC appearances and hasn't won a fight since April of 2013. Garcia has been out since getting choked out by Urbina at UFC 180 (Nov. 2014) and hasn't won in almost two years. Not sure who decided this was a UFC-worthy fight, but I'll try the dog.
Garcia +135 for 1u
No clue in Tanaka and Soto. Gun to head I'd have to go with the dog again, which is Soto at +105 in this case. Nothing unless someone can talk me into a play. Joey Bagels likes Soto, but a friend from New York I respect is all over Tanaka. I know nothing about the asian fighter; Soto looked solid against Dillashaw in a huge step up in class but then got stopped in the first round next out. Pass at this level.
Poirier has done good work handling his business against two middle of the road guys at 155. His last loss came to McGregor at UFC 178 when fighting at 145. His versatility gives him a fighting chance at lightweight against Irish Joe Duffy but Irish Joe has really done little wrong. I was impressed with him in both of his UFC fights, and he's spent a total of less than one round inside the cage before dispatching two overmatched foes by knockout and by a triangle choke. Both fighters were subsequently cut, which worries me about who exactly Duffy has beaten. But Irish Joe handed McGregor his last loss more than five years ago and this fight certainly should headline the FS1 card or be on the PPV card. A solid fight, and with Duffy being bet down to -155, I can see value on the chalk. My only concern is that this will be his biggest class test - he's been given hand-picked guys to easily stop.
Irish Joe -155 for 1.5u
We'll find out some more about Scott "Hot Sauce" Holtzman tonight; the unbeaten 32-year old from Knoxville was impressive in his UFC debutby choking out an overmatched Greek kid in his UFC debut back in August. They're throwing another lemon at him tonight, as Drew Dober has only one win in his last five fights since getting called up to the UFC. Price got away from me but I see little chance of Dober winning. If I can lay 165, I'll go small, and if it goes down more I'll go for more.
Know zero about the skirts; Kish 4-0 and Ansaroff 6-4 with her last fight coming 14 months ago. Pass.
Noke is your classic grinder at welterweight; he's been up at the UFC level since June of 2010, racking up a 6-3 record and upsetting Sobotta by TKO three minutes in at UFC 193 only seven weeks ago. Alex Morono has won five in a row at a lower level but is a fill in here for Gastelum. Can't see Moreno competing.
Noke -300 for 1.5u
Hard to know what to expect out of Mayday McDonald; he's been out of the octagon for more than two years after losing by submission to Urijah Faber at 135. He's fighting a guy who split his only two UFC decisions, but I still know very little about Kanehara (other than he once fought to three straight draws back in Japan against three different guys back in 2005. How the fuck is that possible? Ring rust and the price keeping me off Mayday but I see little chance of him losing.
To the PPV portion...
Trujillo went 11 months between fights after losing to Ferguson, and promptly lost the same way to Tibau two months ago - by rearnaked choke. Sims is 1-1 in his two UFC fights. Could be entertaining but I lean Sims and missed the price. Pass.
Brandao is 6-3 in his nine UFC fights since joining the promotion at the end of 2011. The Brazilian has had a solid featherweight career and meets unbeaten (* - de la Torre choked him out before the CSAC overturned it) Brian Ortega. Ortega's first "official" UFC fight after that "no contest" was a knockout of Thiago Tavarez. So yeah, I'm not sold on Ortega by any means. I'll take Brandao here... Class edge and he's got bricks in those fists. He's always looking to press forward and is more experienced. He's a harder striker, a stronger wrestler and will be better on top position, allowing him to control the fight.
Brandao +160 for 2u.
Tumenov has won four straight since losing his UFC debut to Alcantara in a split decision early in 2014. Those four wins have come against suspect opposition, as his heavy hands have stopped three of those in the first round. Larkin actually began his career at 205, and is now fighting at 170. Good fight to watch, but no real opinion earlier in the week. Still, Larkin gone up against and beaten much tougher then Tumenov, and the price got out of control earlier today, so...
Larkin +225 for 1.5u
Miocic upped his record to 13-2 after wearing out Mark Hunt last May. His only losses have been to Struve and JDS. Arlovski has won six straight, four of which have come since coming back to the UFC. The Belarussian has been around since 1999 and has basically faught anyone and everyone in the heavyweight divisions of MMA. The Pit Bull likes to outwork folks, but Stipe is the toughest fight he's faced since Fedor in 2009. The skill set of Miocic seems superior and is why he's favored, but Arlovski is faster, more powerful and more entertaining. I'll be rooting him, so might as well sweat him as well.
Arlovski +190 for 1.5u
In the welterweight main event, Robbie Lawler faces Carlos Condit. Lawler has been around so long that the UFC was still naming its fights (UFC 37, 'High Impact' was his first fight in the promotion, back in May of 2002). He's won four in a row, including an impressive TKO of Rory MacDonald in UFC 189 back in July. That fight was an absolute war and took a lot of damage in that fight. I guess I should respect the welterweight champion a bit more than I do, but I really believe that he is the weakest champion of all current UFC belt-holders (though the 170 class isn't stocked with much talent at this point). He's as gritty as they come.
Condit is one of the more entertaining fighters at 170; he's won 30 fights in his career and only two have come by decision. He's busy early and often. After losing his UFC debut to Kampmann in April of 2009 he won five straight to get a crack at GSP, losing that in a five-round decision. Hangover? Probably, as he lost two of his next three before beating Thiago Alves in the headline fight of UFC Fight Night 67 in late May.
I'll go with Condit here. He's got great jiu-jitsu, is super aggressive and never stops. He strengthens as the fight wears on, so it will be vitally important to dig into Lawler's lead leg. Ruthless has excellent movement and can make his opponents miss during the exchanges, but his leg is vulnerable. Lawler also like to stand and counter, so the same elbow strikes Condit used to finish off Alves would come in handy to discourage Lawler from getting too close.
Condit -105 for 2u
GL!
:shake:
From bottom to top this time, or from first fight to last:
Who is Westcott to lay anything to Edgar Garcia? Westcott looks like your next door neighbor, assuming you live in Alberta like he does. He's coming off two losses in his only two UFC appearances and hasn't won a fight since April of 2013. Garcia has been out since getting choked out by Urbina at UFC 180 (Nov. 2014) and hasn't won in almost two years. Not sure who decided this was a UFC-worthy fight, but I'll try the dog.
Garcia +135 for 1u
No clue in Tanaka and Soto. Gun to head I'd have to go with the dog again, which is Soto at +105 in this case. Nothing unless someone can talk me into a play. Joey Bagels likes Soto, but a friend from New York I respect is all over Tanaka. I know nothing about the asian fighter; Soto looked solid against Dillashaw in a huge step up in class but then got stopped in the first round next out. Pass at this level.
Poirier has done good work handling his business against two middle of the road guys at 155. His last loss came to McGregor at UFC 178 when fighting at 145. His versatility gives him a fighting chance at lightweight against Irish Joe Duffy but Irish Joe has really done little wrong. I was impressed with him in both of his UFC fights, and he's spent a total of less than one round inside the cage before dispatching two overmatched foes by knockout and by a triangle choke. Both fighters were subsequently cut, which worries me about who exactly Duffy has beaten. But Irish Joe handed McGregor his last loss more than five years ago and this fight certainly should headline the FS1 card or be on the PPV card. A solid fight, and with Duffy being bet down to -155, I can see value on the chalk. My only concern is that this will be his biggest class test - he's been given hand-picked guys to easily stop.
Irish Joe -155 for 1.5u
We'll find out some more about Scott "Hot Sauce" Holtzman tonight; the unbeaten 32-year old from Knoxville was impressive in his UFC debutby choking out an overmatched Greek kid in his UFC debut back in August. They're throwing another lemon at him tonight, as Drew Dober has only one win in his last five fights since getting called up to the UFC. Price got away from me but I see little chance of Dober winning. If I can lay 165, I'll go small, and if it goes down more I'll go for more.
Know zero about the skirts; Kish 4-0 and Ansaroff 6-4 with her last fight coming 14 months ago. Pass.
Noke is your classic grinder at welterweight; he's been up at the UFC level since June of 2010, racking up a 6-3 record and upsetting Sobotta by TKO three minutes in at UFC 193 only seven weeks ago. Alex Morono has won five in a row at a lower level but is a fill in here for Gastelum. Can't see Moreno competing.
Noke -300 for 1.5u
Hard to know what to expect out of Mayday McDonald; he's been out of the octagon for more than two years after losing by submission to Urijah Faber at 135. He's fighting a guy who split his only two UFC decisions, but I still know very little about Kanehara (other than he once fought to three straight draws back in Japan against three different guys back in 2005. How the fuck is that possible? Ring rust and the price keeping me off Mayday but I see little chance of him losing.
To the PPV portion...
Trujillo went 11 months between fights after losing to Ferguson, and promptly lost the same way to Tibau two months ago - by rearnaked choke. Sims is 1-1 in his two UFC fights. Could be entertaining but I lean Sims and missed the price. Pass.
Brandao is 6-3 in his nine UFC fights since joining the promotion at the end of 2011. The Brazilian has had a solid featherweight career and meets unbeaten (* - de la Torre choked him out before the CSAC overturned it) Brian Ortega. Ortega's first "official" UFC fight after that "no contest" was a knockout of Thiago Tavarez. So yeah, I'm not sold on Ortega by any means. I'll take Brandao here... Class edge and he's got bricks in those fists. He's always looking to press forward and is more experienced. He's a harder striker, a stronger wrestler and will be better on top position, allowing him to control the fight.
Brandao +160 for 2u.
Tumenov has won four straight since losing his UFC debut to Alcantara in a split decision early in 2014. Those four wins have come against suspect opposition, as his heavy hands have stopped three of those in the first round. Larkin actually began his career at 205, and is now fighting at 170. Good fight to watch, but no real opinion earlier in the week. Still, Larkin gone up against and beaten much tougher then Tumenov, and the price got out of control earlier today, so...
Larkin +225 for 1.5u
Miocic upped his record to 13-2 after wearing out Mark Hunt last May. His only losses have been to Struve and JDS. Arlovski has won six straight, four of which have come since coming back to the UFC. The Belarussian has been around since 1999 and has basically faught anyone and everyone in the heavyweight divisions of MMA. The Pit Bull likes to outwork folks, but Stipe is the toughest fight he's faced since Fedor in 2009. The skill set of Miocic seems superior and is why he's favored, but Arlovski is faster, more powerful and more entertaining. I'll be rooting him, so might as well sweat him as well.
Arlovski +190 for 1.5u
In the welterweight main event, Robbie Lawler faces Carlos Condit. Lawler has been around so long that the UFC was still naming its fights (UFC 37, 'High Impact' was his first fight in the promotion, back in May of 2002). He's won four in a row, including an impressive TKO of Rory MacDonald in UFC 189 back in July. That fight was an absolute war and took a lot of damage in that fight. I guess I should respect the welterweight champion a bit more than I do, but I really believe that he is the weakest champion of all current UFC belt-holders (though the 170 class isn't stocked with much talent at this point). He's as gritty as they come.
Condit is one of the more entertaining fighters at 170; he's won 30 fights in his career and only two have come by decision. He's busy early and often. After losing his UFC debut to Kampmann in April of 2009 he won five straight to get a crack at GSP, losing that in a five-round decision. Hangover? Probably, as he lost two of his next three before beating Thiago Alves in the headline fight of UFC Fight Night 67 in late May.
I'll go with Condit here. He's got great jiu-jitsu, is super aggressive and never stops. He strengthens as the fight wears on, so it will be vitally important to dig into Lawler's lead leg. Ruthless has excellent movement and can make his opponents miss during the exchanges, but his leg is vulnerable. Lawler also like to stand and counter, so the same elbow strikes Condit used to finish off Alves would come in handy to discourage Lawler from getting too close.
Condit -105 for 2u
GL!
:shake:
