CollegeKingRex
CTG Regular
The argument can certainly be made (and I might be the one making it) that despite all of the UFC’s best efforts in the past to stack its monumental numerical cards (UFC 100, 150 etc.), they have never put on a show with this much star power.
It has without a doubt been the best week in the history of the promotion, with a successful UFC Fight Night Thursday at the Cosmopolitan followed up by the Ultimate Fighter 22 Finale Friday. Saturday’s culmination of a three-night Las Vegas extravaganza is a 12-fight card at the MGM Grand Garden Arena.
The main event pits two of biggest feuding individuals in all of the UFC in the octagon together shortly after midnight Eastern Standard Time to duel for the undisputed featherweight championship. Jose Aldo and Conor McGregor will finally meet for the first time to unify the belt McGregor won in July when Aldo was forced to pull out of their initially-scheduled fight at UFC 189 due to injury.
Chad Mendes stepped in for Aldo and battled McGregor for the better part of two rounds before a probable lack of conditioning caught up to him, and the Irishman was able to lift the interim belt at 145 pounds. Almost a full year of anticipation has been building for tonight’s main event – Aldo hasn’t lost inside the Octagon in more than 10 years and McGregor hasn’t lost in more than five.
The UFC always touts the second-to-last fight of the night as the “co-main event of the evening”; usually that’s just overhype. When Bruce Buffer says it tonight, it should ring true, as Chris Weidman will try to defend his middleweight title against Luke Rockhold. Weidman is an unbeaten 13-0, with his last four fights having basically ended Anderson Silva's career by stopping him twice in succession, winning a decision against Lyoto Machida and knocking out Vitor Belfort in a little over two minutes earlier this year. Rockhold's last loss was to Belfort in May of 2013. He has won four fights since then to get to 14-2 and earn a shot at the belt, with a knock-out of Costas Philippou and submissions of Tim Boetsch, Michael Bisping and Machida.
Those two belts pit the clear-cut top contenders in their respective weight classes, and either fight would be strong as a stand-alone event. Together, they top a card that boasts as much depth as the promotion has ever put on.
The three other pay-per-view fights should have their own intrigue. Max Holloway and Jeremy Stephens kick things off on that portion of the card at about 10:10 EST – fight of the night possibilities exist here. Demian Maia and Gunnar Nelson will probably spend three rounds grappling with each other but both are very skilled. And Jacare Souza will finally meet Yoel Romero in a fight that could and probably should emerge as the next middleweight contender, so you can be sure Rockhold and Weidman will be interested in those proceedings.
The prelims start a little after 6:30 EST on UFC Fight Pass, with Marcio Alexandre Jr. meeting Court McGee. John Makdessi will tangle with Yancy Medeiros and Magomed Mustafaev meets Joe Proctor in the other two early fights.
At 8 EST, Fox Sports 1 takes over the coverage and shortly thereafter, the four other undercard fights will start, highlighted by the popular Urijah Faber meeting Frankie Saenz. The three fights preceding that showcase Kevin Lee against Leonardo Santos, Warlley Alves against Colby Covington and Tecia Torres against Jocelyn Jones-Lybarger.
Boxing has always cowered from running any big fight-nights in December, as they had proven to not do well in the past. So a decade ago, as a fledgling organization, the UFC started finding big December fight nights to be a gold-mine because there was no competition from a strong boxing card. It’s worked so well that the UFC has carved out their own spot on the December calendar, with the promise of a mouthwatering card coming as almost a Christmas present for the most ardent mixed martial arts supporters.
So, let's get to the picks.
Not sure who was in charge of opening this featherweight title line where it was, but they would have trapped me on Aldo if the limits were anything worth betting. On Oct. 25, the first few offices opened the line when Don Best posted it on the screen at somewhere in the McGregor minus-180 to 190 range. This, against Aldo, was has been called the pound-for-pound best in the world by some, having not lost in more than 10 years, and certainly the best featherweight in the sport’s history.
McGregor is someone who will not be ignored, obviously – especially at the betting windows, as thousands of Irishmen have descended on Vegas for this one. The contrast in lines will almost certainly be felt as the Vegas books will be drowned with McGregor money, but the value offshore might well be on him, as Aldo money will be and has been prevalent to drive this line near a “PICK”.
That said, McGregor is my play (and yes, it was made offshore at plus-money). Had this fight gone off in July (and with bettable odds anywhere near what I listed above), I would have been on Aldo. A few things have happened since the rib injury Aldo suffered to knock him out of the first fight. McGregor grappled with Rory MacDonald (who went on the same travelling tour to promote UFC 189 because he was fighting Robbie Lawlor for the welterweight title) and evidently suffered a knee injury while doing so, yet fought through that to knock out Chad Mendes and win the interim belt. This is the same Mendes who is a wrestler and who took Aldo the distance in Aldo’s last fight.
Aldo not only wants to win this fight, he wants to totally destroy the talkative Irishman. The problem with that is that he’ll end up being so aggressive that it will work against him. Aldo will over-commit on the attack and McGregor will eventually wear Aldo down with strikes. Both guys kick, but McGregor can kick not only with his legs, but also with heels. Ring rust is certainly not an impossibility for the Brazilian, either. This will be his first UFC fight since October of last year and only his fifth fight total in almost four years. McGregor is so long, and Aldo has mainly fought shorter guys, who have less reach.
Weidman is the deserving champion at 185 pounds, having some early UFC fights by submission before knocking out (KO or TKO) four of his last five victims. While Rockhold probably has more raw physical skills, he’ll have to be mentally tough enough to be the first one to ever beat Weidman. He isn’t going to be giving his belt away; Rockhold will have to take it. Weidman has the superior striking and does a good job of hiding his shots and setting them up. His ground-and-pound is very tough to overcome and is probably why the champion will enter as the favorite.
Rockhold enters with a 14-2 mark and is in any discussion about who the best pure athlete in all of the UFC. He could have played in many other sports, and probably made a living in doing so. He’s a scratch golfer, his father was a pro basketball player and his brother is a pro surfer.
Rockhold is a submission specialist, but his kicks are lethal enough to knock anyone out, Weidman included. He trains at American Kickboxing Academy with Cain Velasquez (former UFC heavyweight champion) and Daniel Cormier (former Olympic wrestler and current UFC light heavyweight champion). While Weidman was an All-American wrestler and that is his strength, but Rockhold sees guys bigger than that with similar wrestling skills on a daily basis, helping prepare those aforementioned champions before their own respective fights. For those reasons and at this price, the play is on Rockhold.
Yoel Romero isn’t getting any younger, but the Miami native just keeps on winning. The 38-year old is 10-1, having started his pro career less than six years ago and unbeaten since Sept. 10, 2011. His wrestling background, perhaps as the best in all of the UFC, should be too much for Romero Souza to overcome. An investment on Romero is correct there, and the market agrees with me as the line has moved fairly heavily toward the underdog as Saturday morning became Saturday afternoon in Las Vegas.
It’s a grappling dream in second pay-per-view fight as 38-year old Maia meets 27-year old Nelson. These two are the best in the entire welterweight division at jiu-jitsu, so a stoppage seems unlikely. If you don’t mind laying a bit of juice, this fight is almost a cinch to go the full 15 minutes, so OVER 2.5 is the recommended investment.
In the featherweight “J.V. game”, Holloway meets Stephens. Holloway has looked good and has won seven in a row since McGregor won a unanimous decision back on UFC Fight Night 26 on Aug. 17, 2013. He’s a clear-cut favorite, but Stephens has gotten better and is getting into his peak years now at age 29. He hasn’t been knocked out in more than two years (one time ever) and hasn’t been submitted in almost six, all while fighting the among the best in the division since 2007 (he was on the UFC 71 card, where Chuck Liddell/Rampage Jackson was the main event, for reference sake). Seven of his 11 losses have been by decision; the price tag here drives me to the underdog. I fucking love Holloway, one of my favorite guys going right now, so I'll actually be rooting AGAINST my bet here.
Faber is one of the top-10 draws in the UFC, yet is not even fighting on the pay-per-view card. He headlines the FS1 card with a fight against Saenz. Faber has shown time and time again that he wins these sorts of fights against those who aren’t truly established but can’t step up and beat the best in the bantamweight division. This should be a submission win, and handled fairly quickly. UNDER 2.5 rounds there at plus money is the play.
Alves meets Covington in a battle of unbeaten welterweights. Covington was an NCAA All-American wrestler and racks up points with takedown after takedown. Alves is athletic, but only in short bursts. Covington has the endurance to keep coming after Alves relentlessly for three rounds, if need be. The play is Covington.
Nothing in any of the earlier fights stands out in terms of value, and there are plenty of unknown factors in a few of them as well. Dollaz has a great thread.
The plays:
McGregor +120 for 1.5 units
Rockhold +130 for 1.5 units
Romero +120 for 2 units (would take +110 for the same, it's widely available)
Maia/Nelson OVER 2.5 rounds -210 for 2 units
Stephens at +450 for 1 unit
Faber/Saenz UNDER 2.5 rounds +125 for 2 units
Covington -125 for 2 units
GL tonight, thoughts welcome!
:shake:
It has without a doubt been the best week in the history of the promotion, with a successful UFC Fight Night Thursday at the Cosmopolitan followed up by the Ultimate Fighter 22 Finale Friday. Saturday’s culmination of a three-night Las Vegas extravaganza is a 12-fight card at the MGM Grand Garden Arena.
The main event pits two of biggest feuding individuals in all of the UFC in the octagon together shortly after midnight Eastern Standard Time to duel for the undisputed featherweight championship. Jose Aldo and Conor McGregor will finally meet for the first time to unify the belt McGregor won in July when Aldo was forced to pull out of their initially-scheduled fight at UFC 189 due to injury.
Chad Mendes stepped in for Aldo and battled McGregor for the better part of two rounds before a probable lack of conditioning caught up to him, and the Irishman was able to lift the interim belt at 145 pounds. Almost a full year of anticipation has been building for tonight’s main event – Aldo hasn’t lost inside the Octagon in more than 10 years and McGregor hasn’t lost in more than five.
The UFC always touts the second-to-last fight of the night as the “co-main event of the evening”; usually that’s just overhype. When Bruce Buffer says it tonight, it should ring true, as Chris Weidman will try to defend his middleweight title against Luke Rockhold. Weidman is an unbeaten 13-0, with his last four fights having basically ended Anderson Silva's career by stopping him twice in succession, winning a decision against Lyoto Machida and knocking out Vitor Belfort in a little over two minutes earlier this year. Rockhold's last loss was to Belfort in May of 2013. He has won four fights since then to get to 14-2 and earn a shot at the belt, with a knock-out of Costas Philippou and submissions of Tim Boetsch, Michael Bisping and Machida.
Those two belts pit the clear-cut top contenders in their respective weight classes, and either fight would be strong as a stand-alone event. Together, they top a card that boasts as much depth as the promotion has ever put on.
The three other pay-per-view fights should have their own intrigue. Max Holloway and Jeremy Stephens kick things off on that portion of the card at about 10:10 EST – fight of the night possibilities exist here. Demian Maia and Gunnar Nelson will probably spend three rounds grappling with each other but both are very skilled. And Jacare Souza will finally meet Yoel Romero in a fight that could and probably should emerge as the next middleweight contender, so you can be sure Rockhold and Weidman will be interested in those proceedings.
The prelims start a little after 6:30 EST on UFC Fight Pass, with Marcio Alexandre Jr. meeting Court McGee. John Makdessi will tangle with Yancy Medeiros and Magomed Mustafaev meets Joe Proctor in the other two early fights.
At 8 EST, Fox Sports 1 takes over the coverage and shortly thereafter, the four other undercard fights will start, highlighted by the popular Urijah Faber meeting Frankie Saenz. The three fights preceding that showcase Kevin Lee against Leonardo Santos, Warlley Alves against Colby Covington and Tecia Torres against Jocelyn Jones-Lybarger.
Boxing has always cowered from running any big fight-nights in December, as they had proven to not do well in the past. So a decade ago, as a fledgling organization, the UFC started finding big December fight nights to be a gold-mine because there was no competition from a strong boxing card. It’s worked so well that the UFC has carved out their own spot on the December calendar, with the promise of a mouthwatering card coming as almost a Christmas present for the most ardent mixed martial arts supporters.
So, let's get to the picks.
Not sure who was in charge of opening this featherweight title line where it was, but they would have trapped me on Aldo if the limits were anything worth betting. On Oct. 25, the first few offices opened the line when Don Best posted it on the screen at somewhere in the McGregor minus-180 to 190 range. This, against Aldo, was has been called the pound-for-pound best in the world by some, having not lost in more than 10 years, and certainly the best featherweight in the sport’s history.
McGregor is someone who will not be ignored, obviously – especially at the betting windows, as thousands of Irishmen have descended on Vegas for this one. The contrast in lines will almost certainly be felt as the Vegas books will be drowned with McGregor money, but the value offshore might well be on him, as Aldo money will be and has been prevalent to drive this line near a “PICK”.
That said, McGregor is my play (and yes, it was made offshore at plus-money). Had this fight gone off in July (and with bettable odds anywhere near what I listed above), I would have been on Aldo. A few things have happened since the rib injury Aldo suffered to knock him out of the first fight. McGregor grappled with Rory MacDonald (who went on the same travelling tour to promote UFC 189 because he was fighting Robbie Lawlor for the welterweight title) and evidently suffered a knee injury while doing so, yet fought through that to knock out Chad Mendes and win the interim belt. This is the same Mendes who is a wrestler and who took Aldo the distance in Aldo’s last fight.
Aldo not only wants to win this fight, he wants to totally destroy the talkative Irishman. The problem with that is that he’ll end up being so aggressive that it will work against him. Aldo will over-commit on the attack and McGregor will eventually wear Aldo down with strikes. Both guys kick, but McGregor can kick not only with his legs, but also with heels. Ring rust is certainly not an impossibility for the Brazilian, either. This will be his first UFC fight since October of last year and only his fifth fight total in almost four years. McGregor is so long, and Aldo has mainly fought shorter guys, who have less reach.
Weidman is the deserving champion at 185 pounds, having some early UFC fights by submission before knocking out (KO or TKO) four of his last five victims. While Rockhold probably has more raw physical skills, he’ll have to be mentally tough enough to be the first one to ever beat Weidman. He isn’t going to be giving his belt away; Rockhold will have to take it. Weidman has the superior striking and does a good job of hiding his shots and setting them up. His ground-and-pound is very tough to overcome and is probably why the champion will enter as the favorite.
Rockhold enters with a 14-2 mark and is in any discussion about who the best pure athlete in all of the UFC. He could have played in many other sports, and probably made a living in doing so. He’s a scratch golfer, his father was a pro basketball player and his brother is a pro surfer.
Rockhold is a submission specialist, but his kicks are lethal enough to knock anyone out, Weidman included. He trains at American Kickboxing Academy with Cain Velasquez (former UFC heavyweight champion) and Daniel Cormier (former Olympic wrestler and current UFC light heavyweight champion). While Weidman was an All-American wrestler and that is his strength, but Rockhold sees guys bigger than that with similar wrestling skills on a daily basis, helping prepare those aforementioned champions before their own respective fights. For those reasons and at this price, the play is on Rockhold.
Yoel Romero isn’t getting any younger, but the Miami native just keeps on winning. The 38-year old is 10-1, having started his pro career less than six years ago and unbeaten since Sept. 10, 2011. His wrestling background, perhaps as the best in all of the UFC, should be too much for Romero Souza to overcome. An investment on Romero is correct there, and the market agrees with me as the line has moved fairly heavily toward the underdog as Saturday morning became Saturday afternoon in Las Vegas.
It’s a grappling dream in second pay-per-view fight as 38-year old Maia meets 27-year old Nelson. These two are the best in the entire welterweight division at jiu-jitsu, so a stoppage seems unlikely. If you don’t mind laying a bit of juice, this fight is almost a cinch to go the full 15 minutes, so OVER 2.5 is the recommended investment.
In the featherweight “J.V. game”, Holloway meets Stephens. Holloway has looked good and has won seven in a row since McGregor won a unanimous decision back on UFC Fight Night 26 on Aug. 17, 2013. He’s a clear-cut favorite, but Stephens has gotten better and is getting into his peak years now at age 29. He hasn’t been knocked out in more than two years (one time ever) and hasn’t been submitted in almost six, all while fighting the among the best in the division since 2007 (he was on the UFC 71 card, where Chuck Liddell/Rampage Jackson was the main event, for reference sake). Seven of his 11 losses have been by decision; the price tag here drives me to the underdog. I fucking love Holloway, one of my favorite guys going right now, so I'll actually be rooting AGAINST my bet here.
Faber is one of the top-10 draws in the UFC, yet is not even fighting on the pay-per-view card. He headlines the FS1 card with a fight against Saenz. Faber has shown time and time again that he wins these sorts of fights against those who aren’t truly established but can’t step up and beat the best in the bantamweight division. This should be a submission win, and handled fairly quickly. UNDER 2.5 rounds there at plus money is the play.
Alves meets Covington in a battle of unbeaten welterweights. Covington was an NCAA All-American wrestler and racks up points with takedown after takedown. Alves is athletic, but only in short bursts. Covington has the endurance to keep coming after Alves relentlessly for three rounds, if need be. The play is Covington.
Nothing in any of the earlier fights stands out in terms of value, and there are plenty of unknown factors in a few of them as well. Dollaz has a great thread.
The plays:
McGregor +120 for 1.5 units
Rockhold +130 for 1.5 units
Romero +120 for 2 units (would take +110 for the same, it's widely available)
Maia/Nelson OVER 2.5 rounds -210 for 2 units
Stephens at +450 for 1 unit
Faber/Saenz UNDER 2.5 rounds +125 for 2 units
Covington -125 for 2 units
GL tonight, thoughts welcome!
:shake:
