CollegeKingRex
CTG Regular
I'll have thoughts on the other games tomorrow when I get time.
The two national semifinals (how great is it to say that about college football in addition to college basketball?) are on New Year's Day. The first semi is the third-seed Florida State Seminoles going back to the Rose Bowl to play against second-seed Oregon. The Seminoles won the (final) BCS Championship at this Pasadena venue early in the 2014 calendar year.
These Noles have now won 29 games in a row, and like in 2014, they were unbeaten in the 2013 calendar year. Unlike in 2013, however, this team struggled in almost every which way possible, especially for a team that somehow emerged unbeaten despite the numerous land mines.
Getting into the off-season and in-season issues with FSU quarterback Jameis Winston is extraneous at this point. You'd have to be living under a rock to not know what he and his team have been through. The redshirt sophomore has never lost, however, despite stats that pale to his 2013 Heisman Trophy-winning numbers.
Winston will face a defense that just tore through Arizona in the Pac 12 Championship, with the Ducks avenging their only regular season loss in the process. That said, All-American corner Ifo Ekpre-Olomu hurt his knee in mid-December and his absence will change things in the Duck secondary. He was a Thorpe Award finalist (top 3 cover corners in the country), and senior Troy Hill will slide into the top cover role, presumably against FSU stud wideout Rashad Greene.
The senior had 93 (!) catches in the 2014 season and has always been Winston's top option. Stud tight end Nick O'Leary figures to benefit here if the Ducks try to take away Greene. While the Noles are short on offensive guys with standout numbers in contrast to 2013, Winston was playing with a variety of ailments during the season. His ankle was in constant pain from Halloween until the ACC Title win over Georgia Tech, and he should be healthy enough to make plays in this game.
Sure, Oregon scored 45 ppg and outclassed every opponent at least once this season, but the Seminoles have plenty of speed and strength (when would they ever not?) to stay on the same field with the Duck offensive skill players. Many teams had success against the 'Noles this season by controlling the ball and clock and keeping Winston on the sideline. By contrast, Oregon does everything with tempo and speed; they won't be trying to hold the ball. The Ducks have the ball for just more than 27 minutes per game, numbers that are well below Georgia Tech, Boston College, Louisville and Clemson. Those are all squads that took the Seminoles to the brink by playing their preferred styles, having the ball more than half the game.
Oregon began its winning streak at this venue against UCLA, covering in each of its last eight wins as well after the regular season loss to Arizona. There is little doubt that Heisman trophy winner Marcus Mariota was a worthy recipient. He will cause some problems for the Seminoles with his athleticism and decision-making. He rarely throws an interception and should be in the same discussion for first quarterback off the board in this spring's NFL Draft.
Special teams should favor the Seminoles. Kicker Roberto Aguayo is an NFL-ready stud now, having never missed an extra point and going 46-for-49 on field goals. Should it come down to that, FSU will be in position to win it, as they did under late Winston-led drives all season.
If nothing else, a blueprint has been provided to Oregon SHOULD it get behind. The Ducks have only trailed one time after three quarters and have yet to fall behind by more than 10 at any point. In 2013, Florida State won every game by double digits and was a DD-fave against Auburn in the title game before falling behind 21-3.
Yet in contrast to last season, the 2014 Seminoles have been tied or trailing going into the fourth quarter five times. Three times they've been down by at least two touchdowns, and won SEVEN games by six points or less in racking up a 3-10 ATS record through 13 games. Florida State would be 51-1 in its last 52 games if they were a nine-point underdog in every game like the Seminoles will be in the Rose Bowl.
No team has been better in bowls in recent history. The Noles are 6-0 in their last six bowl games, and have covered in nine of their last 10.
The last three paragraphs make for all of the intangibles you'd need to handicap this one. It makes for an easy recommendation: Take Florida State plus the points, and I've already put in a moneyline play on Florida State as well.
Call it a big play for 3.5 ish units all when done; value lies for 2.5 ish or more plus the points, as the math dictates that the money always comes for the dog ML in these games and the favorite minus the points (math guys are all over FSU plus the points and Oregon ML for the pot scooper etc).
Good night and GL; I'll try to spit out a paragraph or two out from the other games but I have zero plays at this point other than Florida State.
:shake:
The two national semifinals (how great is it to say that about college football in addition to college basketball?) are on New Year's Day. The first semi is the third-seed Florida State Seminoles going back to the Rose Bowl to play against second-seed Oregon. The Seminoles won the (final) BCS Championship at this Pasadena venue early in the 2014 calendar year.
These Noles have now won 29 games in a row, and like in 2014, they were unbeaten in the 2013 calendar year. Unlike in 2013, however, this team struggled in almost every which way possible, especially for a team that somehow emerged unbeaten despite the numerous land mines.
Getting into the off-season and in-season issues with FSU quarterback Jameis Winston is extraneous at this point. You'd have to be living under a rock to not know what he and his team have been through. The redshirt sophomore has never lost, however, despite stats that pale to his 2013 Heisman Trophy-winning numbers.
Winston will face a defense that just tore through Arizona in the Pac 12 Championship, with the Ducks avenging their only regular season loss in the process. That said, All-American corner Ifo Ekpre-Olomu hurt his knee in mid-December and his absence will change things in the Duck secondary. He was a Thorpe Award finalist (top 3 cover corners in the country), and senior Troy Hill will slide into the top cover role, presumably against FSU stud wideout Rashad Greene.
The senior had 93 (!) catches in the 2014 season and has always been Winston's top option. Stud tight end Nick O'Leary figures to benefit here if the Ducks try to take away Greene. While the Noles are short on offensive guys with standout numbers in contrast to 2013, Winston was playing with a variety of ailments during the season. His ankle was in constant pain from Halloween until the ACC Title win over Georgia Tech, and he should be healthy enough to make plays in this game.
Sure, Oregon scored 45 ppg and outclassed every opponent at least once this season, but the Seminoles have plenty of speed and strength (when would they ever not?) to stay on the same field with the Duck offensive skill players. Many teams had success against the 'Noles this season by controlling the ball and clock and keeping Winston on the sideline. By contrast, Oregon does everything with tempo and speed; they won't be trying to hold the ball. The Ducks have the ball for just more than 27 minutes per game, numbers that are well below Georgia Tech, Boston College, Louisville and Clemson. Those are all squads that took the Seminoles to the brink by playing their preferred styles, having the ball more than half the game.
Oregon began its winning streak at this venue against UCLA, covering in each of its last eight wins as well after the regular season loss to Arizona. There is little doubt that Heisman trophy winner Marcus Mariota was a worthy recipient. He will cause some problems for the Seminoles with his athleticism and decision-making. He rarely throws an interception and should be in the same discussion for first quarterback off the board in this spring's NFL Draft.
Special teams should favor the Seminoles. Kicker Roberto Aguayo is an NFL-ready stud now, having never missed an extra point and going 46-for-49 on field goals. Should it come down to that, FSU will be in position to win it, as they did under late Winston-led drives all season.
If nothing else, a blueprint has been provided to Oregon SHOULD it get behind. The Ducks have only trailed one time after three quarters and have yet to fall behind by more than 10 at any point. In 2013, Florida State won every game by double digits and was a DD-fave against Auburn in the title game before falling behind 21-3.
Yet in contrast to last season, the 2014 Seminoles have been tied or trailing going into the fourth quarter five times. Three times they've been down by at least two touchdowns, and won SEVEN games by six points or less in racking up a 3-10 ATS record through 13 games. Florida State would be 51-1 in its last 52 games if they were a nine-point underdog in every game like the Seminoles will be in the Rose Bowl.
No team has been better in bowls in recent history. The Noles are 6-0 in their last six bowl games, and have covered in nine of their last 10.
The last three paragraphs make for all of the intangibles you'd need to handicap this one. It makes for an easy recommendation: Take Florida State plus the points, and I've already put in a moneyline play on Florida State as well.
Call it a big play for 3.5 ish units all when done; value lies for 2.5 ish or more plus the points, as the math dictates that the money always comes for the dog ML in these games and the favorite minus the points (math guys are all over FSU plus the points and Oregon ML for the pot scooper etc).
Good night and GL; I'll try to spit out a paragraph or two out from the other games but I have zero plays at this point other than Florida State.
:shake:
rayer
