CollegeKingRex
CTG Regular
Been a great playoffs. Let's see if we can win the last one. I bet Denver +4.5 two full weeks ago when the line first came out, and I tagged it again for a bit more at +6 a few days later.
With kickoff rapidly approaching, let's look at the key factors that will likely determine who wins Super Bowl 50 tonight from Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, Calif.
Each top-seed advanced to the Super Bowl by winning its two home games in the the playoffs, albeit in vastly different manners. Carolina boatraced Seattle and Arizona in the first halves of each game, outscoring those two teams by a combined 55-7 in the first two quarters in games. They used a plus-8 turnover ratio (+2 vs. Seattle and +6 vs. Arizona) to advance to this game and that has been a strength all season.
Nothing new there; Carolina is tops in the league in turnovers forced, turnover margin and points off takeaways. Linebacker Luke Kuechly had an interception returned for a touchdown in each playoff game. The Panthers boast star players on all three levels of their defense.
Denver edged the Steelers in the divisional round before holding off a furious New England rally in the AFC Championship. Those playoff games mirrored Denver's regular-season modus operandi; the Broncos have now won a staggering ELEVEN games this season by seven points or fewer. Three times the Broncos rallied from 14 down to win, and they erased a 17-point deficit to tie the Colts on the road before losing by a field goal.
On paper, it seems like the 17-1 Panthers are a better team and should have their way today, even though Denver's defense ranks atop the league. The Broncos hit Tom Brady 20 times in the AFC title game, which was more than any QB took in any game all season.
Let's first look at Carolina's offense against Denver's defense, because this will dictate the way the game is played. As long as the Broncos can win up front and force punts, they will try to play the field position game, which will keep it low scoring for a good part of the 60 minutes.
Expect Cam Newton to run the ball 15-plus times today. It's the Super Bowl, so he'll have an entire offseason to heal from the banging and pounding he might take. Schematically, it would make sense for him to run it a lot early to neutralize the aggressiveness of the Denver front. Traps and fake jet sweeps are likely to be incorporated into the game plan to get the Broncos off of their front foot.
I have been really impressed with the Panther running game. It's hard to prepare for (two weeks helps) because of the mixed flow reads that constantly put the opposing front seven in a pickle. The Panthers eliminate defenders without ever even blocking them on a lot of plays because of hesistation and overpursuit. The option package stretches the defense horizontally and it's hard to hone in on a particular play or scheme because the plays are so similar when the Panthers line up.
Wade Phillips has always been a blitz-happy coordinator, and his Bronco defense reflected that this season. Brady and Newton are both very good against the blitz and Phillips dialed the blitzing back in the AFC title game, yet still was effective with just sending the front four. The mobility of Newton makes it hard to imagine Denver wanting to send more people at him. The Panthers don't have many good offensive weapons, however - outside of the league's MVP, and this will be the best pass rush he's seen all season.
Denver should succeed at getting the Panthers into undesirable down-and-distance situations and control the way the game is played. This in turn, leaves it up to Manning and the Denver offense to not make mistakes of its own. They've done a reasonable job of doing that since Manning came back in Week 17, with just one careless turnover in the last 9-plus quarters.
Manning will have to win the pre-snap war for Denver to move the ball, and watch for Kuechly to try and get Carolina into some different looks once Manning shuffles the deck for Denver at the line. The mental battle will be key, because Manning's physical limitations will make it difficult against Carolina's defense, which has two waves of defensive linemen to harass Manning throughout. That will be important, because the one area where Denver has an advantage is with its elite receivers against the depleted Panther secondary. Will Manning try to take some shots downfield or is his arm incapable of making those throws anymore?
In the end, it has the makings of a low-scoring game well into the second half. I have a great deal of respect for the Panthers, but this represents a pretty good class jump for them. Sure, they were impressive in the two home playoff wins but now must leave Charlotte. The NFC South was one of the weaker divisions in football, so the Panthers got the Saints, Buccaneers and Falcons twice each in addition to the AFC South, which is the weakest division in the league. Carolina has only been an underdog in two games all season; Denver has been five times now.
The Broncos have beaten New England twice, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Kansas City, Green Bay and Minnesota - all playoff teams. Carolina beat just four playoff teams during the regular season, two of which (Houston and Washington) got totally outclassed in the first round at home.
Denver's character and resilience were on full display all season, and the intangibles might be enough for them to find a way to win yet another close game. If not, there is another way - Carolina has shown a penchant for blowing leads. The Panthers had big leads against Indianapolis, Green Bay, the Giants and Seattle and let all four of those teams back into the game very quickly. Three of Denver's four losses were by 3, 3 and 7, suggesting that asking Carolina to cover five could be a tough ask. I don't see a 33-30 kind of game, but it's not impossible and I'm certainly not interested in betting the game UNDER because of that possibility.
Denver has been an underdog five teams this season, winning four of them and covering in all five. Manning goes out into retirement as a winner and the feel good story the NFL seemingly always longs for is complete.
Prediction: Denver 17, Carolina 16
The plays: Denver +4.5 and +6 for a combined 4.5 ish units.
GL and enjoy. Cocktail time!
:shake:
With kickoff rapidly approaching, let's look at the key factors that will likely determine who wins Super Bowl 50 tonight from Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, Calif.
Each top-seed advanced to the Super Bowl by winning its two home games in the the playoffs, albeit in vastly different manners. Carolina boatraced Seattle and Arizona in the first halves of each game, outscoring those two teams by a combined 55-7 in the first two quarters in games. They used a plus-8 turnover ratio (+2 vs. Seattle and +6 vs. Arizona) to advance to this game and that has been a strength all season.
Nothing new there; Carolina is tops in the league in turnovers forced, turnover margin and points off takeaways. Linebacker Luke Kuechly had an interception returned for a touchdown in each playoff game. The Panthers boast star players on all three levels of their defense.
Denver edged the Steelers in the divisional round before holding off a furious New England rally in the AFC Championship. Those playoff games mirrored Denver's regular-season modus operandi; the Broncos have now won a staggering ELEVEN games this season by seven points or fewer. Three times the Broncos rallied from 14 down to win, and they erased a 17-point deficit to tie the Colts on the road before losing by a field goal.
On paper, it seems like the 17-1 Panthers are a better team and should have their way today, even though Denver's defense ranks atop the league. The Broncos hit Tom Brady 20 times in the AFC title game, which was more than any QB took in any game all season.
Let's first look at Carolina's offense against Denver's defense, because this will dictate the way the game is played. As long as the Broncos can win up front and force punts, they will try to play the field position game, which will keep it low scoring for a good part of the 60 minutes.
Expect Cam Newton to run the ball 15-plus times today. It's the Super Bowl, so he'll have an entire offseason to heal from the banging and pounding he might take. Schematically, it would make sense for him to run it a lot early to neutralize the aggressiveness of the Denver front. Traps and fake jet sweeps are likely to be incorporated into the game plan to get the Broncos off of their front foot.
I have been really impressed with the Panther running game. It's hard to prepare for (two weeks helps) because of the mixed flow reads that constantly put the opposing front seven in a pickle. The Panthers eliminate defenders without ever even blocking them on a lot of plays because of hesistation and overpursuit. The option package stretches the defense horizontally and it's hard to hone in on a particular play or scheme because the plays are so similar when the Panthers line up.
Wade Phillips has always been a blitz-happy coordinator, and his Bronco defense reflected that this season. Brady and Newton are both very good against the blitz and Phillips dialed the blitzing back in the AFC title game, yet still was effective with just sending the front four. The mobility of Newton makes it hard to imagine Denver wanting to send more people at him. The Panthers don't have many good offensive weapons, however - outside of the league's MVP, and this will be the best pass rush he's seen all season.
Denver should succeed at getting the Panthers into undesirable down-and-distance situations and control the way the game is played. This in turn, leaves it up to Manning and the Denver offense to not make mistakes of its own. They've done a reasonable job of doing that since Manning came back in Week 17, with just one careless turnover in the last 9-plus quarters.
Manning will have to win the pre-snap war for Denver to move the ball, and watch for Kuechly to try and get Carolina into some different looks once Manning shuffles the deck for Denver at the line. The mental battle will be key, because Manning's physical limitations will make it difficult against Carolina's defense, which has two waves of defensive linemen to harass Manning throughout. That will be important, because the one area where Denver has an advantage is with its elite receivers against the depleted Panther secondary. Will Manning try to take some shots downfield or is his arm incapable of making those throws anymore?
In the end, it has the makings of a low-scoring game well into the second half. I have a great deal of respect for the Panthers, but this represents a pretty good class jump for them. Sure, they were impressive in the two home playoff wins but now must leave Charlotte. The NFC South was one of the weaker divisions in football, so the Panthers got the Saints, Buccaneers and Falcons twice each in addition to the AFC South, which is the weakest division in the league. Carolina has only been an underdog in two games all season; Denver has been five times now.
The Broncos have beaten New England twice, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Kansas City, Green Bay and Minnesota - all playoff teams. Carolina beat just four playoff teams during the regular season, two of which (Houston and Washington) got totally outclassed in the first round at home.
Denver's character and resilience were on full display all season, and the intangibles might be enough for them to find a way to win yet another close game. If not, there is another way - Carolina has shown a penchant for blowing leads. The Panthers had big leads against Indianapolis, Green Bay, the Giants and Seattle and let all four of those teams back into the game very quickly. Three of Denver's four losses were by 3, 3 and 7, suggesting that asking Carolina to cover five could be a tough ask. I don't see a 33-30 kind of game, but it's not impossible and I'm certainly not interested in betting the game UNDER because of that possibility.
Denver has been an underdog five teams this season, winning four of them and covering in all five. Manning goes out into retirement as a winner and the feel good story the NFL seemingly always longs for is complete.
Prediction: Denver 17, Carolina 16
The plays: Denver +4.5 and +6 for a combined 4.5 ish units.
GL and enjoy. Cocktail time!
:shake:
