CollegeKingRex
CTG Regular
GL to all this season. Had three of four good years from 2011-2014 before losing about 30 units last year (no time to post after April, but that should change in 2016).
Had to get some temporary credit at a couple of my outs to get down on these, as there are several plays I like here. Ratings here are not the same as my individual game units; these plays are for more over 160-plus games but the 1-5 unit scale works. Most of my game plays will be from 1 to 3 units, with the avg bet in the 1.5 and 2u range. For season win, ratings are on a 0-5 unit scale. 0 is pass, 1 is a small play, 5 is the largest play.
Season wins: The NL East
BRAVES: The closest resemblance to any major league team to Atlanta this decade would be the Houston Astros from 2011-13, who went into full tank mode. Atlanta hit the reset button early last season and those changes and upgrades won't show up at the major league level for likely two more years. Unfortunately for them, the new stadium (SunTrust Park) opens north of downtown in Cobb County next season, so Atlanta would like to be a bit more competitive by then.
Longtime Braves executive John Schuerholz is now the team's vice chairman; this comes after 25 years as either general manager or team president. He is 75 and will be around long enough to get inducted into the Braves Hall of Fame this season at Turner Field, but expect little other joy to come out of the former Olympic stadium this summer.
My play: 3 rating on UNDER 66.5 +110
MARLINS: The Marlins underachieved their way to a 71-91 record in 2015, though injuries were certainly a culprit, as standout pitcher Jose Fernandez and all-world outfield Giancarlo Stanton each only played about half of the season. It was supposed to be a breakout season. Maybe with new manager Don Mattingly in town, the Marlins will finally exceed some of the expectations, though the total on their wins has already dropped a full win and some juice from the openers of six weeks ago.
The East is one of the weaker divisions in baseball, and if this squad can stay remotely healthy, they certainly rate as more talented than Philadelphia or Atlanta by nine miles and should fit in comfortably in the middle, with the top two far ahead and the bottom two far behind. The Marlins look like the definition of mediocrity on paper.
My play: 0 rating at 79.5 wins. No play.
METS: The defending National League champions came out of nowhere last season to steal the pennant. They were overmatched by Kansas City's small-ball, baserunning and defense in the World Series, but easily exceeded all expectations - at least after the July 31 trade deadline. To that point, the Mets were last in baseball at just 3.5 runs per game. Trading for Yoenis Cespedes helped jolt the offense to an ungodly six runs per game in August, and adding Travis d'Arnaud and David Wright back from injuries boosted the offense to 6.5 runs per game in all September games before the Mets clinched the division.
With the rest of the division playing to 80 games below .500 last season, it's hard to see the Mets falling too far with all of their young aces in the rotation. But we're more likely to see the offense from the first four months than from the last two, even with Cespedes re-signing. The line has gotten bet up high enough that it's hard to have OVER, even with the two dregs of baseball probably gifting the Mets 25 wins this season.
My play: 2 rating on UNDER 90.5 even
NATIONALS: Washington won 13 less games last season than in 2014, and that precipitous drop cost manager Matt Williams his job. While new manager Dusty Baker isn't an x's and o's guru by any means, he's always been a player's manager. The talent is there for the Nats to succeed, so Baker is probably not a bad choice to steer the ship, even though the analytics people loathe him for his old-school style.
Bryce Harper is a generational talent, the rotation should be one of the best in the league, and things started promising in Florida. Washington thrashed the Mets in their final Grapefruit League game Wednesday, 12-1. The Nationals finished the spring 18-4 (with three ties) and outscored opponents 169-88. That doesn't always portend success, but after last year's cratering, lookout for a big move in 2015.
My play: 4 rating on OVER 88.5 -125
PHILLIES: Philadelphia finished 63-99 last season, so the question now is whether the big club has bottomed out yet. The organization has finally rid itself of almost all of its dead weight, including woebegone former GM Ruben Amaro. There is nothing resembling a staff ace, the lineup is going to be full of young (not quite ready?) talent that will experience growing pains in the first year of the new regime at the big-league level.
Having the chance to play Atlanta 19 times will help somewhat, but the two worst teams in the league will both be thinking about next season and long out of contention by the time they face off for the first time on May 10.
My play: 2 rating on UNDER 67 -115
NL East Predictions
1. Nationals
2. Mets
3. Marlins
4. Phillies
5. Braves
Season wins: The NL Central
BREWERS: The Brewers dropped 14 wins from its surprising 2014 entity, which was in playoff contention into September. New 30-year old general manager David Stearns is an Ivy Leaguer that will likely take a similar path to Houston - he was there when the Astros started their rebuild. The Milwaukee farm system is going to start pezzing out some major league ready talent, but not until 2018 or so.
This means the Brewers will be battling Cincinnati to stay out of the cellar in 2016, and on paper only those two are better than Atlanta or Philly heading into the season. The best thing about the Brewers this season is the chance to listen to 82-year old Bob Uecker doing play-by-play while he's still working. But the team itself won't be shaking hands after games more than 65 times this season, as the reset button has been firmly punched.
My play: 4 rating on UNDER 70 -110
CARDINALS: St. Louis again won 100 games last season. The only major losses in free agency went to the Cubs, as outfielder Jason Heyward bolted for the money and pitcher John Lackey goes to Chicago as the veteran presence that has had October success. Does that account for 14 wins? Absolutely not. Lackey will be replaced in the rotation by veteran bulldog Adam Wainwright, who lost his 2015 with an Achilles tendon injury but seems ready to assume staff ace status again. Mike Leake is also added to the rotation to eat up innings; he pitched several years in Cincinnati so he knows the division.
The division, and the league in general, still runs through St. Louis until the Cubs and Pirates prove it to us that it doesn't.
My play: 4 rating on OVER 86.5 -105
CUBS: Correlation certainly plays a part in these season wins and division projections. I forecast the Pirates and Cardinals to be better than most, so that leaves one of the Big Three in this division to get squeezed, and it will be the Cubs. If this team were to ever win the World Series, it would be a cause for mourning for bookmakers everywhere for a full week (at least until a big November NFL weekend got them out of the red). Year in and year out, Cubs backers make the pilgrimage to Las Vegas (or to their offshore or local bookmaker) and tithe to the Cubs winning the series. It's found money every year - at least since 1908.
It's obvious GM Theo Epstein has upgraded the roster and manager Joe Maddon knows how to push the right buttons. While the Cubs won 97 games last season, the total this time around is 11 full wins higher than in 2015 after it's been bet through the roof (the first opener I saw in February had the Cubs at 89 flat. That number seems reasonable; this one does not). Maddon has done this before, breaking through with Tampa in 2008 before the 2009 Devil Rays fell flat on their faces. This team can still make the playoffs, but two teams a little better populate their division.
My play: 4 rating on UNDER 93.5 even
PIRATES: Meet the National League equivalent to Kansas City, in a league where great baserunning and defense should lead to more wins than what the Royals can rack up in the AL. Pittsburgh won 98 games last season before succumbing to Jake Arrieta's right arm (one year after Madison Bumgarner stung them) in the NL Wild Card game at PNC Park. Why the big dropoff?
It certainly doesn't seem merited, even with losing three starters. Juan Nicasio might well enjoy a career renaissance now that he's under the tutelage of pitching coach Ray Searage, the best in the business. Gerrit Cole and Francisco Liriano are co-aces and Tyler Glasnow could be a stud by midseason. If Gregory Polanco breaks out in right field, the Pirates could have the best outfield in the league; Andrew McCutcheon has been MVP and Starling Marte is a bag of dynamite in left field. This appears Pittsburgh's best chance to get to the World Series in a long time - provided it can avoid or get through the wild-card game.
My play: 5 rating on OVER 85.5 +105
REDS: Does anyone remember last year's predictions, where I picked the Reds to win the division? I sure hope not; it's ranked among one of my biggest whiffs since I've been doing this back around the turn of the century. Cincy stumbled to a 64-98 record, its worst since the 1982 Reds went 61-101. Yikes. Manager Bryan Price appears overmatched in his role, and outside of first baseman Joey Votto, the Reds really don't have any players on their current roster that would challenge for everyday roles at any of the top three in the division.
Luckily, there's Milwaukee to pick on 19 times, but then again there are 57 games against the top three in the division. If right fielder Jay Bruce or Votto get injured for any length of time, then the Reds are fielding a AAA team. Some consider them the worst team in the league, period. I won't go that far, but I will admit that this doesn't look like a rebuild; this team just stinks. Value has been taken out from the opener, so it's a bit smaller at this level.
My play: 1.5 rating on UNDER 70.5 -135
NL Central prediction:
1. Pirates
2. Cardinals
3. Cubs
4. Reds
5. Brewers
Season wins: The NL West
DIAMONDBACKS: Say this for Arizona, it wants to win and it wants to win on a grand stage. The franchise is embroiled in some bitter disputes with Maricopa County in trying to get upgrades to Chase Field, threatening to move if they're not done. On the field, the Diamondbacks paid a premium for pitcher Zack Grienke to pry him from the Dodgers, in addition to adding the best 17-loss pitcher I've ever seen (Shelby Miller of Atlanta, he of the 3.02 ERA). Manager Chip Hale also was an upgrade from A.J. Hinch in the dugout and the rebuild from Tony LaRussa and Dave Stewart seems well on its way.
Still, Arizona is swimming upstream against Dodger money and the mystique of the even-year Giants. The Snakes were historically young last season; they were just the seventh team since 1950 to have every primary starter in the field and all five primary rotation guys in their age-28 year or younger. They've done a great job of turning non-elite prospects and late draft choices into more-than-serviceable if not outstanding major league players. This might bear fruit in 2016, but 2017 seems a fairer bet for the breakout.
My play: 1 rating on OVER 82 -120
DODGERS: The two big developments at Chavez Ravine that bear watching this season are 1) seeing Vin Scully call every game and 2) how Dave Roberts reacts to being in the manager's chair. There is little doubt that with the cunning front office and the open checkbook ownership gives them, winning is inevitable for both the short and long term.
About point No. 2, Roberts is the first minority manager in franchise history. He was a bench coach for the analytically-savvy Bud Black at San Diego for a couple of seasons and has been praised throughout baseball for his people skills. This could bode well given the Alpha-male personalities roaming the Dodger clubhouse that Don Mattingly simply couldn't handle anymore. This is a big number, but the Dodgers are the most talented team in the division, even-year theatrics be damned. Regarding point No. 1, Scully has called Dodger baseball since 1950, when the team was in Brooklyn. This is rumored to be the best announcer in history's final season. Let's hope not. Either Scully or Connie Mack has worked in baseball every season since 1886; the only year of overlap was 1950. Let that sink in.
My play: 3 rating on OVER 89.5 -105
GIANTS: San Francisco has won World Series titles in 2010, 2012 and 2014, yet has not won more than 88 games since the 2012 season. Credit manager Bruce Bochy for pushing all of the right buttons in October; it's just up to the team to get him there before he and ace pitcher Madison Bumgarner work their magic. Denard Span was brought in from Washington to hit at the top of the order with breakout second baseman Joe Panik.
This is a tough call on the Giants; almost everyone thinks they will win between 87-91 games so it's hard to forecast wins and even more difficult to rate their chances to make the playoffs with all of the possible traffic that will inhabit that window of wins in the National League. Rest assured, if they get even to the Wild Card game and Bumgarner is available, no one will want to see the Giants.
My play: 0 rating at 88.5 wins. No play.
PADRES: The two big developments at Petco Park that bear watching this season are 1) seeing another long-time broadcaster in the NL West enjoying his swan song, as Dick Enberg will yield the microphone to Don Orsillo as the main play-by-play voice of the Padres in the coming months. And 2) on the field, it will be interesting to see how the Padres react to new manager Andy Green, who will not turn 39 until the weekend before the All-Star break.
About point No. 2, Green won manager of the year twice in the Southern League at Double-A in 2013-14 before a promotion to third-base coach at Arizona last season. Green is supposedly poised beyond his years and a big believer advanced analytics - he was largely in charge of Arizona's defensive positioning last season. Minor league results don't ever guarantee future success in baseball but Green is favored to have a long managerial career if he wants one. Regarding point No. 1, Enberg is 80, has called John Wooden UCLA basketball games, LA Rams 1960s Fearsome Foursome games on radio, and no one will ever say "Oh, my!" without most astute observers thinking about him.
My play: 2 rating on OVER 72 -115
ROCKIES: The Rockies have failed to win 70 games in three of the last four seasons, and started on yet another rebuild last season under new GM Jeff Bridich when trading Troy Tulowitzki to Toronto at the trade deadline. Bridich is the latest of yet another analytics-favoring GM, but the moves he made for 2016 are nothing more than year-long band aids; veterans who serve to keep the seats warm for a farm system that is as stocked as it's ever been. It won't be long until some of that youthful talent is on display at Coors Field.
Colorado's league-worst 5.04 ERA in 2015 is bad enough, but the Rockies struck out just seven batters per nine innings as a staff. To prove it's not just playing at altitude causing the pitching issues, the Rockies have had a league-worst ERA (4.41) on the ROAD since late 2010. It takes time to develop some of the younger talent. While the Rockies might win some games with these veterans here or there, they're still the worst team out west.
My play: 3 rating on UNDER 71 -115
NL West prediction:
1. Dodgers
2. Giants
3. Diamondbacks
4. Padres
5. Rockies
Season wins: The AL East
BLUE JAYS: General manager Alex Anthopolous left, as did ace pitcher David Price. Yet the bulk of the offense that scored a dizzying 891 runs (127 more than the second-place Yankees) returns, and if shortstop Troy Tulowitzki settles in better, he'll only be helping a lineup with three guys who hit 39 or more home runs in 2015.
Pythagorean wins are determined by runs scored and allowed. The Blue Jays were a 103-win team last season disguised in a 93-69 record. Despite finishing with only the fifth-best record in the league, the Jays were +221 runs. Next best was St. Louis, who finished with +122 runs. There simply won't be a big dropoff from that sort of run disparity, and no one in the East is beating this team, who I consider the favorite to outslug everyone and win it all.
My play: 5 rating on OVER 87 -115
ORIOLES: The Orioles made the ALCS as recently as 2014, but dropped 15 games back (to .500) from that squad last season. The decline seems favored to continue, as simply put, Buck Showalter doesn't have enough quality arms to combat the sluggers in the high-rent district of the AL East.
No one stands out as a potential staff ace on Opening Day, and depth isn't easy to come by in the rotation, either. Unlike Toronto, the Orioles won't be able to blast their way out of trouble. Aside from Manny Machado and Adam Jones, there aren't enough explosive bats (and gloves) in the lineup to expect the O's to threaten last year's mark.
My play: 3 rating on UNDER 78 -115
DEVIL RAYS: Kudos to new manager Kevin Cash for steering Tampa to 80 wins last season despite the barrage of injuries that gashed the everyday lineup and forced numerous callups from Durham to fill in the rotation for weeks on end. Assuming some of those arms stay healthy this season, Tampa can reasonably expect a solid effort every time out from a rotation including Chris Archer, Jake Odorizzi, Drew Smyly and Matt Moore.
Run scoring was the problem last season; if third baseman Evan Longoria is forced to miss any extended action, the offense would likely quickly go on the fritz again. The Rays were second-to-last in runs scored in the AL last season and even a modest bump there coupled with good health and decent pitching make Tampa a team no one will want to face in September.
My play: 3 rating on OVER 82.5 +110
RED SOX: I'm continued to be baffled by the constant over-hype that Boston gets from both local and national media, but will gladly try to profit off it again. The Red Sox did sign David Price in the offseason and bolstered the third-worst bullpen in the league last season by trading for Padre closer Craig Kimbrel. The high total suggests Boston should contend.
Rather, the Sox have been a scattershot bunch in recent years, finishing well below .500 in three of the last four seasons (winning the World Series in 2013 was a nice consolation prize). Hanley Ramirez disappointed in his first season as a Red Sox left fielder, unless you enjoyed chuckling at him trying to figure out the Fenway Park Green Monster. Third baseman Pablo Sandoval actually lost his starting job to Travis Shaw at the end of March. Only one way to bet these guys until they prove otherwise.
My play: 4 rating on UNDER 87.5 -110
YANKEES: The Bronx Bombers slugged their way to the postseason last fall and should at least be a bit healthier heading into this campaign. Health is a relative word to this bench, however, as the lineup is littered with several stalwarts in their mid-30s and beyond. They've not recorded a single win in the postseason since 2012, but Joe Girardi has been patient and cunning with his bullpen use, and he gets fireballer Aroldis Chapman after the former Reds closer serves a 30-game suspension to start the season.
It does seem that the Yankees are trying to transition into a younger and more defensive-minded team, but it can be tough to teach an old dog new tricks on the fly. Perhaps those changes will better take root in 2017, though never discount an offensive team in an offensive park with three potential top-of-the-line closers in your bullpen and six guys battling for five rotation spots.
My play: 0 rating on 85 wins. No play.
AL East prediction:
1. Blue Jays
2. Yankees
3. D-Rays
4. Red Sox
5. Orioles
Season wins: The AL Central
INDIANS: Cleveland played another season of .500-ish ball, unable to overcome an 11-20 start to its 2015 despite lofty preseason expectations. Evidently, a lot of people must like the core of that team, because the front office kept it together, and the season wins total is higher than that of World Series winner Kansas City somehow.
The Indians are swimming in shallower waters in the AL Central these days, with the White Sox in a rebuild, Detroit on a descent and the Twins probably not quite there on their own ascent. But no one hit more than 19 homers last for the Tribe, and reigning Cy Young winner Corey Kluber received two or fewer runs in 18 of his 32 starts, losing 16 times last season. Not enough evidence for me to see seven games worth of improvement.
My play: 2 rating on UNDER 87 -120
ROYALS: Kansas City's first championship since 1985 was surprising to some, but the Royals were the fifth-best team in the league by Pythagorean wins, so it wasn't totally fluky. The defensive prowess across all positions and baserunning is atop the league, with no one else really even close in either category. Most of the talent is still young and club-controlled.
The core is in place and the bullpen will continue to be lights out with the addition of Joakim Soria as a setup man with Kelvin Herrera to get to fireballing closer Wade Davis. The Royals are probably a better team than they were last year. Assuming the hunger is still there, and the health stays relatively good, there's no reason to think they cannot repeat.
My play: 4 rating on OVER 84.5 even
TIGERS: Not sure where the respect for Detroit is coming, though some sharp people saw right through it, betting their total down more than two wins since the mid-February release. Even so, there's still value going under this total. The Tigers have enough cracks in the foundation that their "very good" form from 2011-2014 is far enough in the rearview mirror that a total rebuild is probably necessary. Unfortunately, owner Mike Ilitch (he of Little Caesars fame and also owner of the Detroit Red Wings) turns 87 in July and doesn't have the patience to oversee the necessary rebuild. Look closely enough and this resembles the Phillies on about a 3-year delay, only without the 2008 ring.
Detroit won just 74 games last season with an underperforming, overpaid core; with a $170 million payroll and a farm system that is at the bottom of the league according to Baseball Prospectus, help is NOT on the way. The bullpen is among the worst in baseball, the rotation lacks a true ace and new additions Justin Upton and Cameron Maybin are also veterans who will try to fit into a lineup full of them. How will they improve nine wins? Playing to 75 wins would be an improvement and can't be considered a failure when you look at the cards the Tigers have dealt themselves by trying to stay competitive despite the window slowly closing last season.
My play: 4 rating on UNDER 82.5 -105
TWINS: Year 2 of the Paul Molitor Era as manager in Minneapolis should tell us a lot. The secondary statistics showed us that the Twins were outscored by four runs last season, yet finished 83-79 and in the wild-card chase all the way into the last weekend of the season. This, from a team that was largely panned to finish with one of the worst records in the league. Interestingly enough, the Twins had one of the worst ERA's in the league and the offense was in the middle of most offensive stats.
So how did they end up with a winning record? Steady clubhouse veteran Torii Hunter returned for one last season and provided a solid influence on the youngesters. Or maybe it was just Molitor magic. In a division where they look to be a middle-of-the-road team, the number seems about right here.
My play: 0 rating on 79.5 wins. No play.
WHITE SOX: Chicago's south side team has won 63, 73 and 76 games in the last three seasons, finishing 33, 17 and 19 games out of first, respectively. On the field, vice president Kenny Williams is trying to improve the product, adding third baseman Todd Frazier and shortstop Jimmy Rollins. Both are veteran presences; Rollins has won a World Series and Frazier won the Home Run Contest last season in front of his hometown Cincinnati fans.
Off the field, Williams embroiled himself in a controversy, as he asked first baseman Adam LaRoche to stop bringing his 14-year old son to the ballpark every day during spring training. This upset the over-the-hill LaRoche so much that he prematurely retired with $13 million left on his contract to play out 2016. Not sure how that can make things any better in the clubhouse, even if the on-field product is going to improve. When you hit fewer homers than any team in the league despite playing at one of the best hitter's ballparks, there are offensive issues.
My play: 3 rating on UNDER 80.5 +115
AL Central prediction:
1. Royals
2. Indians
3. Twins
4. White Sox
5. Tigers
Season wins: The AL West
ANGELS: The value has been blasted out of this play. Anaheim was 85-77 and missed the playoffs by just one win last season. The Angels are now in dire danger of completely blowing the prime years of the best player the game has seen in a long time. Anaheim hasn't won a playoff game since 2009 and Mike Trout continues to put up numbers at his age that compare to anyone who has ever played on both sides of the ball.
Unfortunately, he hasn't had much help. The Angels jettisoned their former GM, who landed on his feet at division rival Seattle. New GM Billy Eppler helped bring in defensive upgrades at shortstop and third base, with Andrelton Simmons and Yunel Escobar. But neither of those guys consistently hit, and the offense doesn't have anyone to consistently produce runs outside of a healthy Albert Pujols and Trout. Longtime manager Mike Scioscia might have worn out his welcome after winning his battle with Jerry DiPoto. This could be the year he loses the war, and his job.
My play: 0 rating on 79.5 flat. No play.
ASTROS: Houston completed a rebuild last season that saw it win 35 more games than it did in the 2013 tank-job. It now has teams all over the league evaluating (and emulating, in some cases) the way they compete. If you don't think you're good enough to sustain consistent runs into October, then just throw in the towel, dump salary and bite the bullet for two or three years. The problem is that the front office in Houston is playing chess, while most everyone else is playing checkers. Jeff Luhnow is that good, and manager A.J. Hinch proved more than capable of applying his analytics on the diamond.
The Astros are entertaining; they play in a small park, run hot and cold on offense and have added to their young arms by obtaining Doug Fister in the offseason. I'm still not sold that the sudden jump will be sustained this season as the rest of the league has a decent report on the young Astro talent, pitching and hitting alike. They were still just 86-76 last season and I can't see an improvement.
My play: 3 rating on UNDER 87.5 -115
ATHLETICS: Oakland gets the usual Billy Beane caveat/asterisk. Buyer beware regardless of which way you go. Last season's anomaly in the whole league, the A's finished with 68 wins, worst in the American League by six full games. This despite having a positive run-differential into September! Most astute observers consider manager Bob Melvin one of the game's best, but they have underperformed Pythagorean expectations by a combined 21 games in the last two seasons, a startling number. The free fall from the July trade deadline in 2014 when the A's sent Yoenis Cespedes to Boston for Jon Lester has been more calamitous than precipitous.
The problems stemmed from a defense that led the league in errors and a bullpen that was one of the worst in the league according to secondary stats. Oakland was 31-53 in games decided by two runs or fewer, a statistic that will eventually even itself out. Signs point to a possible quick turnaround, but there are a lot of question marks in the rotation beyond All-Star Sonny Gray and the offense looks just adequate. Will it be enough to overcome the defense and pitching questions? Playing to the same run differential of last season will get the A's to 77 wins. I think they're a smidge better than that.
My play: 3 rating on OVER 75.5 -135
MARINERS: Another organization that purged the front office, the Mariners dipped 11 wins from their 2014 surge to finish 76-86 last season. Scott Servais will take over in the dugout, coming over from Anaheim with new GM Jerry DiPoto. Servais was a big-league catcher in parts of 11 seasons and is generally lauded for his communications skills. But he's got no managerial experience at any level, and no Seattle manager has lasted more than three years since Lou Piniella left in 2002 - two significant strikes against him.
DiPoto shuffled the deck in the bullpen, traded for some starters to go behind Felix Hernandez and traded for at least three everyday regulars. Most roster overhauls don't lead to immediate success and the Mariners are steering in yet another direction with the new pieces in the front office. This looks like a .500 team on paper, and I've been more bullish on these guys than most in this decade. A lean to UNDER, but at this price, it's a pass.
My play: 0 rating on 82.5 wins. No play.
RANGERS: Credit the front office for the hire of manager Jeff Banister. The rookie manager of 2015 must have found turning the Rangers into division champions relative child's play considering what he's been through in life: decades working with the Pirates when they were a laughingstock, broken bones, temporary paralysis and cancer (in reverse order of importance, obviously). He did a great job of adapting to the talent on hand in 2015 and should do the same this season. He also relied on many young and unproven players (Rougned Odor, Delino DeShields and Keone Kela) while the top relievers at the end of last season were all devoid of postseason experience and had yet to qualify for arbitration.
The injuries of 2014 led to the breakout of last season, as Texas stayed relatively healthy and went to the playoffs for the fifth time in six years. Age and durability issues will start to creep up with some of the Texas veterans, but this is a deep and intimidating lineup that will be one of the best teams in the league provided they stay healthy. Another playoff trip seems in the offing.
My play: 3 rating on OVER 83.5 even
AL West prediction:
1. Rangers
2. Astros
3. Mariners
4. Athletics
5. Angels
GL to all this season.
:shake:
Had to get some temporary credit at a couple of my outs to get down on these, as there are several plays I like here. Ratings here are not the same as my individual game units; these plays are for more over 160-plus games but the 1-5 unit scale works. Most of my game plays will be from 1 to 3 units, with the avg bet in the 1.5 and 2u range. For season win, ratings are on a 0-5 unit scale. 0 is pass, 1 is a small play, 5 is the largest play.
Season wins: The NL East
BRAVES: The closest resemblance to any major league team to Atlanta this decade would be the Houston Astros from 2011-13, who went into full tank mode. Atlanta hit the reset button early last season and those changes and upgrades won't show up at the major league level for likely two more years. Unfortunately for them, the new stadium (SunTrust Park) opens north of downtown in Cobb County next season, so Atlanta would like to be a bit more competitive by then.
Longtime Braves executive John Schuerholz is now the team's vice chairman; this comes after 25 years as either general manager or team president. He is 75 and will be around long enough to get inducted into the Braves Hall of Fame this season at Turner Field, but expect little other joy to come out of the former Olympic stadium this summer.
My play: 3 rating on UNDER 66.5 +110
MARLINS: The Marlins underachieved their way to a 71-91 record in 2015, though injuries were certainly a culprit, as standout pitcher Jose Fernandez and all-world outfield Giancarlo Stanton each only played about half of the season. It was supposed to be a breakout season. Maybe with new manager Don Mattingly in town, the Marlins will finally exceed some of the expectations, though the total on their wins has already dropped a full win and some juice from the openers of six weeks ago.
The East is one of the weaker divisions in baseball, and if this squad can stay remotely healthy, they certainly rate as more talented than Philadelphia or Atlanta by nine miles and should fit in comfortably in the middle, with the top two far ahead and the bottom two far behind. The Marlins look like the definition of mediocrity on paper.
My play: 0 rating at 79.5 wins. No play.
METS: The defending National League champions came out of nowhere last season to steal the pennant. They were overmatched by Kansas City's small-ball, baserunning and defense in the World Series, but easily exceeded all expectations - at least after the July 31 trade deadline. To that point, the Mets were last in baseball at just 3.5 runs per game. Trading for Yoenis Cespedes helped jolt the offense to an ungodly six runs per game in August, and adding Travis d'Arnaud and David Wright back from injuries boosted the offense to 6.5 runs per game in all September games before the Mets clinched the division.
With the rest of the division playing to 80 games below .500 last season, it's hard to see the Mets falling too far with all of their young aces in the rotation. But we're more likely to see the offense from the first four months than from the last two, even with Cespedes re-signing. The line has gotten bet up high enough that it's hard to have OVER, even with the two dregs of baseball probably gifting the Mets 25 wins this season.
My play: 2 rating on UNDER 90.5 even
NATIONALS: Washington won 13 less games last season than in 2014, and that precipitous drop cost manager Matt Williams his job. While new manager Dusty Baker isn't an x's and o's guru by any means, he's always been a player's manager. The talent is there for the Nats to succeed, so Baker is probably not a bad choice to steer the ship, even though the analytics people loathe him for his old-school style.
Bryce Harper is a generational talent, the rotation should be one of the best in the league, and things started promising in Florida. Washington thrashed the Mets in their final Grapefruit League game Wednesday, 12-1. The Nationals finished the spring 18-4 (with three ties) and outscored opponents 169-88. That doesn't always portend success, but after last year's cratering, lookout for a big move in 2015.
My play: 4 rating on OVER 88.5 -125
PHILLIES: Philadelphia finished 63-99 last season, so the question now is whether the big club has bottomed out yet. The organization has finally rid itself of almost all of its dead weight, including woebegone former GM Ruben Amaro. There is nothing resembling a staff ace, the lineup is going to be full of young (not quite ready?) talent that will experience growing pains in the first year of the new regime at the big-league level.
Having the chance to play Atlanta 19 times will help somewhat, but the two worst teams in the league will both be thinking about next season and long out of contention by the time they face off for the first time on May 10.
My play: 2 rating on UNDER 67 -115
NL East Predictions
1. Nationals
2. Mets
3. Marlins
4. Phillies
5. Braves
Season wins: The NL Central
BREWERS: The Brewers dropped 14 wins from its surprising 2014 entity, which was in playoff contention into September. New 30-year old general manager David Stearns is an Ivy Leaguer that will likely take a similar path to Houston - he was there when the Astros started their rebuild. The Milwaukee farm system is going to start pezzing out some major league ready talent, but not until 2018 or so.
This means the Brewers will be battling Cincinnati to stay out of the cellar in 2016, and on paper only those two are better than Atlanta or Philly heading into the season. The best thing about the Brewers this season is the chance to listen to 82-year old Bob Uecker doing play-by-play while he's still working. But the team itself won't be shaking hands after games more than 65 times this season, as the reset button has been firmly punched.
My play: 4 rating on UNDER 70 -110
CARDINALS: St. Louis again won 100 games last season. The only major losses in free agency went to the Cubs, as outfielder Jason Heyward bolted for the money and pitcher John Lackey goes to Chicago as the veteran presence that has had October success. Does that account for 14 wins? Absolutely not. Lackey will be replaced in the rotation by veteran bulldog Adam Wainwright, who lost his 2015 with an Achilles tendon injury but seems ready to assume staff ace status again. Mike Leake is also added to the rotation to eat up innings; he pitched several years in Cincinnati so he knows the division.
The division, and the league in general, still runs through St. Louis until the Cubs and Pirates prove it to us that it doesn't.
My play: 4 rating on OVER 86.5 -105
CUBS: Correlation certainly plays a part in these season wins and division projections. I forecast the Pirates and Cardinals to be better than most, so that leaves one of the Big Three in this division to get squeezed, and it will be the Cubs. If this team were to ever win the World Series, it would be a cause for mourning for bookmakers everywhere for a full week (at least until a big November NFL weekend got them out of the red). Year in and year out, Cubs backers make the pilgrimage to Las Vegas (or to their offshore or local bookmaker) and tithe to the Cubs winning the series. It's found money every year - at least since 1908.
It's obvious GM Theo Epstein has upgraded the roster and manager Joe Maddon knows how to push the right buttons. While the Cubs won 97 games last season, the total this time around is 11 full wins higher than in 2015 after it's been bet through the roof (the first opener I saw in February had the Cubs at 89 flat. That number seems reasonable; this one does not). Maddon has done this before, breaking through with Tampa in 2008 before the 2009 Devil Rays fell flat on their faces. This team can still make the playoffs, but two teams a little better populate their division.
My play: 4 rating on UNDER 93.5 even
PIRATES: Meet the National League equivalent to Kansas City, in a league where great baserunning and defense should lead to more wins than what the Royals can rack up in the AL. Pittsburgh won 98 games last season before succumbing to Jake Arrieta's right arm (one year after Madison Bumgarner stung them) in the NL Wild Card game at PNC Park. Why the big dropoff?
It certainly doesn't seem merited, even with losing three starters. Juan Nicasio might well enjoy a career renaissance now that he's under the tutelage of pitching coach Ray Searage, the best in the business. Gerrit Cole and Francisco Liriano are co-aces and Tyler Glasnow could be a stud by midseason. If Gregory Polanco breaks out in right field, the Pirates could have the best outfield in the league; Andrew McCutcheon has been MVP and Starling Marte is a bag of dynamite in left field. This appears Pittsburgh's best chance to get to the World Series in a long time - provided it can avoid or get through the wild-card game.
My play: 5 rating on OVER 85.5 +105
REDS: Does anyone remember last year's predictions, where I picked the Reds to win the division? I sure hope not; it's ranked among one of my biggest whiffs since I've been doing this back around the turn of the century. Cincy stumbled to a 64-98 record, its worst since the 1982 Reds went 61-101. Yikes. Manager Bryan Price appears overmatched in his role, and outside of first baseman Joey Votto, the Reds really don't have any players on their current roster that would challenge for everyday roles at any of the top three in the division.
Luckily, there's Milwaukee to pick on 19 times, but then again there are 57 games against the top three in the division. If right fielder Jay Bruce or Votto get injured for any length of time, then the Reds are fielding a AAA team. Some consider them the worst team in the league, period. I won't go that far, but I will admit that this doesn't look like a rebuild; this team just stinks. Value has been taken out from the opener, so it's a bit smaller at this level.
My play: 1.5 rating on UNDER 70.5 -135
NL Central prediction:
1. Pirates
2. Cardinals
3. Cubs
4. Reds
5. Brewers
Season wins: The NL West
DIAMONDBACKS: Say this for Arizona, it wants to win and it wants to win on a grand stage. The franchise is embroiled in some bitter disputes with Maricopa County in trying to get upgrades to Chase Field, threatening to move if they're not done. On the field, the Diamondbacks paid a premium for pitcher Zack Grienke to pry him from the Dodgers, in addition to adding the best 17-loss pitcher I've ever seen (Shelby Miller of Atlanta, he of the 3.02 ERA). Manager Chip Hale also was an upgrade from A.J. Hinch in the dugout and the rebuild from Tony LaRussa and Dave Stewart seems well on its way.
Still, Arizona is swimming upstream against Dodger money and the mystique of the even-year Giants. The Snakes were historically young last season; they were just the seventh team since 1950 to have every primary starter in the field and all five primary rotation guys in their age-28 year or younger. They've done a great job of turning non-elite prospects and late draft choices into more-than-serviceable if not outstanding major league players. This might bear fruit in 2016, but 2017 seems a fairer bet for the breakout.
My play: 1 rating on OVER 82 -120
DODGERS: The two big developments at Chavez Ravine that bear watching this season are 1) seeing Vin Scully call every game and 2) how Dave Roberts reacts to being in the manager's chair. There is little doubt that with the cunning front office and the open checkbook ownership gives them, winning is inevitable for both the short and long term.
About point No. 2, Roberts is the first minority manager in franchise history. He was a bench coach for the analytically-savvy Bud Black at San Diego for a couple of seasons and has been praised throughout baseball for his people skills. This could bode well given the Alpha-male personalities roaming the Dodger clubhouse that Don Mattingly simply couldn't handle anymore. This is a big number, but the Dodgers are the most talented team in the division, even-year theatrics be damned. Regarding point No. 1, Scully has called Dodger baseball since 1950, when the team was in Brooklyn. This is rumored to be the best announcer in history's final season. Let's hope not. Either Scully or Connie Mack has worked in baseball every season since 1886; the only year of overlap was 1950. Let that sink in.
My play: 3 rating on OVER 89.5 -105
GIANTS: San Francisco has won World Series titles in 2010, 2012 and 2014, yet has not won more than 88 games since the 2012 season. Credit manager Bruce Bochy for pushing all of the right buttons in October; it's just up to the team to get him there before he and ace pitcher Madison Bumgarner work their magic. Denard Span was brought in from Washington to hit at the top of the order with breakout second baseman Joe Panik.
This is a tough call on the Giants; almost everyone thinks they will win between 87-91 games so it's hard to forecast wins and even more difficult to rate their chances to make the playoffs with all of the possible traffic that will inhabit that window of wins in the National League. Rest assured, if they get even to the Wild Card game and Bumgarner is available, no one will want to see the Giants.
My play: 0 rating at 88.5 wins. No play.
PADRES: The two big developments at Petco Park that bear watching this season are 1) seeing another long-time broadcaster in the NL West enjoying his swan song, as Dick Enberg will yield the microphone to Don Orsillo as the main play-by-play voice of the Padres in the coming months. And 2) on the field, it will be interesting to see how the Padres react to new manager Andy Green, who will not turn 39 until the weekend before the All-Star break.
About point No. 2, Green won manager of the year twice in the Southern League at Double-A in 2013-14 before a promotion to third-base coach at Arizona last season. Green is supposedly poised beyond his years and a big believer advanced analytics - he was largely in charge of Arizona's defensive positioning last season. Minor league results don't ever guarantee future success in baseball but Green is favored to have a long managerial career if he wants one. Regarding point No. 1, Enberg is 80, has called John Wooden UCLA basketball games, LA Rams 1960s Fearsome Foursome games on radio, and no one will ever say "Oh, my!" without most astute observers thinking about him.
My play: 2 rating on OVER 72 -115
ROCKIES: The Rockies have failed to win 70 games in three of the last four seasons, and started on yet another rebuild last season under new GM Jeff Bridich when trading Troy Tulowitzki to Toronto at the trade deadline. Bridich is the latest of yet another analytics-favoring GM, but the moves he made for 2016 are nothing more than year-long band aids; veterans who serve to keep the seats warm for a farm system that is as stocked as it's ever been. It won't be long until some of that youthful talent is on display at Coors Field.
Colorado's league-worst 5.04 ERA in 2015 is bad enough, but the Rockies struck out just seven batters per nine innings as a staff. To prove it's not just playing at altitude causing the pitching issues, the Rockies have had a league-worst ERA (4.41) on the ROAD since late 2010. It takes time to develop some of the younger talent. While the Rockies might win some games with these veterans here or there, they're still the worst team out west.
My play: 3 rating on UNDER 71 -115
NL West prediction:
1. Dodgers
2. Giants
3. Diamondbacks
4. Padres
5. Rockies
Season wins: The AL East
BLUE JAYS: General manager Alex Anthopolous left, as did ace pitcher David Price. Yet the bulk of the offense that scored a dizzying 891 runs (127 more than the second-place Yankees) returns, and if shortstop Troy Tulowitzki settles in better, he'll only be helping a lineup with three guys who hit 39 or more home runs in 2015.
Pythagorean wins are determined by runs scored and allowed. The Blue Jays were a 103-win team last season disguised in a 93-69 record. Despite finishing with only the fifth-best record in the league, the Jays were +221 runs. Next best was St. Louis, who finished with +122 runs. There simply won't be a big dropoff from that sort of run disparity, and no one in the East is beating this team, who I consider the favorite to outslug everyone and win it all.
My play: 5 rating on OVER 87 -115
ORIOLES: The Orioles made the ALCS as recently as 2014, but dropped 15 games back (to .500) from that squad last season. The decline seems favored to continue, as simply put, Buck Showalter doesn't have enough quality arms to combat the sluggers in the high-rent district of the AL East.
No one stands out as a potential staff ace on Opening Day, and depth isn't easy to come by in the rotation, either. Unlike Toronto, the Orioles won't be able to blast their way out of trouble. Aside from Manny Machado and Adam Jones, there aren't enough explosive bats (and gloves) in the lineup to expect the O's to threaten last year's mark.
My play: 3 rating on UNDER 78 -115
DEVIL RAYS: Kudos to new manager Kevin Cash for steering Tampa to 80 wins last season despite the barrage of injuries that gashed the everyday lineup and forced numerous callups from Durham to fill in the rotation for weeks on end. Assuming some of those arms stay healthy this season, Tampa can reasonably expect a solid effort every time out from a rotation including Chris Archer, Jake Odorizzi, Drew Smyly and Matt Moore.
Run scoring was the problem last season; if third baseman Evan Longoria is forced to miss any extended action, the offense would likely quickly go on the fritz again. The Rays were second-to-last in runs scored in the AL last season and even a modest bump there coupled with good health and decent pitching make Tampa a team no one will want to face in September.
My play: 3 rating on OVER 82.5 +110
RED SOX: I'm continued to be baffled by the constant over-hype that Boston gets from both local and national media, but will gladly try to profit off it again. The Red Sox did sign David Price in the offseason and bolstered the third-worst bullpen in the league last season by trading for Padre closer Craig Kimbrel. The high total suggests Boston should contend.
Rather, the Sox have been a scattershot bunch in recent years, finishing well below .500 in three of the last four seasons (winning the World Series in 2013 was a nice consolation prize). Hanley Ramirez disappointed in his first season as a Red Sox left fielder, unless you enjoyed chuckling at him trying to figure out the Fenway Park Green Monster. Third baseman Pablo Sandoval actually lost his starting job to Travis Shaw at the end of March. Only one way to bet these guys until they prove otherwise.
My play: 4 rating on UNDER 87.5 -110
YANKEES: The Bronx Bombers slugged their way to the postseason last fall and should at least be a bit healthier heading into this campaign. Health is a relative word to this bench, however, as the lineup is littered with several stalwarts in their mid-30s and beyond. They've not recorded a single win in the postseason since 2012, but Joe Girardi has been patient and cunning with his bullpen use, and he gets fireballer Aroldis Chapman after the former Reds closer serves a 30-game suspension to start the season.
It does seem that the Yankees are trying to transition into a younger and more defensive-minded team, but it can be tough to teach an old dog new tricks on the fly. Perhaps those changes will better take root in 2017, though never discount an offensive team in an offensive park with three potential top-of-the-line closers in your bullpen and six guys battling for five rotation spots.
My play: 0 rating on 85 wins. No play.
AL East prediction:
1. Blue Jays
2. Yankees
3. D-Rays
4. Red Sox
5. Orioles
Season wins: The AL Central
INDIANS: Cleveland played another season of .500-ish ball, unable to overcome an 11-20 start to its 2015 despite lofty preseason expectations. Evidently, a lot of people must like the core of that team, because the front office kept it together, and the season wins total is higher than that of World Series winner Kansas City somehow.
The Indians are swimming in shallower waters in the AL Central these days, with the White Sox in a rebuild, Detroit on a descent and the Twins probably not quite there on their own ascent. But no one hit more than 19 homers last for the Tribe, and reigning Cy Young winner Corey Kluber received two or fewer runs in 18 of his 32 starts, losing 16 times last season. Not enough evidence for me to see seven games worth of improvement.
My play: 2 rating on UNDER 87 -120
ROYALS: Kansas City's first championship since 1985 was surprising to some, but the Royals were the fifth-best team in the league by Pythagorean wins, so it wasn't totally fluky. The defensive prowess across all positions and baserunning is atop the league, with no one else really even close in either category. Most of the talent is still young and club-controlled.
The core is in place and the bullpen will continue to be lights out with the addition of Joakim Soria as a setup man with Kelvin Herrera to get to fireballing closer Wade Davis. The Royals are probably a better team than they were last year. Assuming the hunger is still there, and the health stays relatively good, there's no reason to think they cannot repeat.
My play: 4 rating on OVER 84.5 even
TIGERS: Not sure where the respect for Detroit is coming, though some sharp people saw right through it, betting their total down more than two wins since the mid-February release. Even so, there's still value going under this total. The Tigers have enough cracks in the foundation that their "very good" form from 2011-2014 is far enough in the rearview mirror that a total rebuild is probably necessary. Unfortunately, owner Mike Ilitch (he of Little Caesars fame and also owner of the Detroit Red Wings) turns 87 in July and doesn't have the patience to oversee the necessary rebuild. Look closely enough and this resembles the Phillies on about a 3-year delay, only without the 2008 ring.
Detroit won just 74 games last season with an underperforming, overpaid core; with a $170 million payroll and a farm system that is at the bottom of the league according to Baseball Prospectus, help is NOT on the way. The bullpen is among the worst in baseball, the rotation lacks a true ace and new additions Justin Upton and Cameron Maybin are also veterans who will try to fit into a lineup full of them. How will they improve nine wins? Playing to 75 wins would be an improvement and can't be considered a failure when you look at the cards the Tigers have dealt themselves by trying to stay competitive despite the window slowly closing last season.
My play: 4 rating on UNDER 82.5 -105
TWINS: Year 2 of the Paul Molitor Era as manager in Minneapolis should tell us a lot. The secondary statistics showed us that the Twins were outscored by four runs last season, yet finished 83-79 and in the wild-card chase all the way into the last weekend of the season. This, from a team that was largely panned to finish with one of the worst records in the league. Interestingly enough, the Twins had one of the worst ERA's in the league and the offense was in the middle of most offensive stats.
So how did they end up with a winning record? Steady clubhouse veteran Torii Hunter returned for one last season and provided a solid influence on the youngesters. Or maybe it was just Molitor magic. In a division where they look to be a middle-of-the-road team, the number seems about right here.
My play: 0 rating on 79.5 wins. No play.
WHITE SOX: Chicago's south side team has won 63, 73 and 76 games in the last three seasons, finishing 33, 17 and 19 games out of first, respectively. On the field, vice president Kenny Williams is trying to improve the product, adding third baseman Todd Frazier and shortstop Jimmy Rollins. Both are veteran presences; Rollins has won a World Series and Frazier won the Home Run Contest last season in front of his hometown Cincinnati fans.
Off the field, Williams embroiled himself in a controversy, as he asked first baseman Adam LaRoche to stop bringing his 14-year old son to the ballpark every day during spring training. This upset the over-the-hill LaRoche so much that he prematurely retired with $13 million left on his contract to play out 2016. Not sure how that can make things any better in the clubhouse, even if the on-field product is going to improve. When you hit fewer homers than any team in the league despite playing at one of the best hitter's ballparks, there are offensive issues.
My play: 3 rating on UNDER 80.5 +115
AL Central prediction:
1. Royals
2. Indians
3. Twins
4. White Sox
5. Tigers
Season wins: The AL West
ANGELS: The value has been blasted out of this play. Anaheim was 85-77 and missed the playoffs by just one win last season. The Angels are now in dire danger of completely blowing the prime years of the best player the game has seen in a long time. Anaheim hasn't won a playoff game since 2009 and Mike Trout continues to put up numbers at his age that compare to anyone who has ever played on both sides of the ball.
Unfortunately, he hasn't had much help. The Angels jettisoned their former GM, who landed on his feet at division rival Seattle. New GM Billy Eppler helped bring in defensive upgrades at shortstop and third base, with Andrelton Simmons and Yunel Escobar. But neither of those guys consistently hit, and the offense doesn't have anyone to consistently produce runs outside of a healthy Albert Pujols and Trout. Longtime manager Mike Scioscia might have worn out his welcome after winning his battle with Jerry DiPoto. This could be the year he loses the war, and his job.
My play: 0 rating on 79.5 flat. No play.
ASTROS: Houston completed a rebuild last season that saw it win 35 more games than it did in the 2013 tank-job. It now has teams all over the league evaluating (and emulating, in some cases) the way they compete. If you don't think you're good enough to sustain consistent runs into October, then just throw in the towel, dump salary and bite the bullet for two or three years. The problem is that the front office in Houston is playing chess, while most everyone else is playing checkers. Jeff Luhnow is that good, and manager A.J. Hinch proved more than capable of applying his analytics on the diamond.
The Astros are entertaining; they play in a small park, run hot and cold on offense and have added to their young arms by obtaining Doug Fister in the offseason. I'm still not sold that the sudden jump will be sustained this season as the rest of the league has a decent report on the young Astro talent, pitching and hitting alike. They were still just 86-76 last season and I can't see an improvement.
My play: 3 rating on UNDER 87.5 -115
ATHLETICS: Oakland gets the usual Billy Beane caveat/asterisk. Buyer beware regardless of which way you go. Last season's anomaly in the whole league, the A's finished with 68 wins, worst in the American League by six full games. This despite having a positive run-differential into September! Most astute observers consider manager Bob Melvin one of the game's best, but they have underperformed Pythagorean expectations by a combined 21 games in the last two seasons, a startling number. The free fall from the July trade deadline in 2014 when the A's sent Yoenis Cespedes to Boston for Jon Lester has been more calamitous than precipitous.
The problems stemmed from a defense that led the league in errors and a bullpen that was one of the worst in the league according to secondary stats. Oakland was 31-53 in games decided by two runs or fewer, a statistic that will eventually even itself out. Signs point to a possible quick turnaround, but there are a lot of question marks in the rotation beyond All-Star Sonny Gray and the offense looks just adequate. Will it be enough to overcome the defense and pitching questions? Playing to the same run differential of last season will get the A's to 77 wins. I think they're a smidge better than that.
My play: 3 rating on OVER 75.5 -135
MARINERS: Another organization that purged the front office, the Mariners dipped 11 wins from their 2014 surge to finish 76-86 last season. Scott Servais will take over in the dugout, coming over from Anaheim with new GM Jerry DiPoto. Servais was a big-league catcher in parts of 11 seasons and is generally lauded for his communications skills. But he's got no managerial experience at any level, and no Seattle manager has lasted more than three years since Lou Piniella left in 2002 - two significant strikes against him.
DiPoto shuffled the deck in the bullpen, traded for some starters to go behind Felix Hernandez and traded for at least three everyday regulars. Most roster overhauls don't lead to immediate success and the Mariners are steering in yet another direction with the new pieces in the front office. This looks like a .500 team on paper, and I've been more bullish on these guys than most in this decade. A lean to UNDER, but at this price, it's a pass.
My play: 0 rating on 82.5 wins. No play.
RANGERS: Credit the front office for the hire of manager Jeff Banister. The rookie manager of 2015 must have found turning the Rangers into division champions relative child's play considering what he's been through in life: decades working with the Pirates when they were a laughingstock, broken bones, temporary paralysis and cancer (in reverse order of importance, obviously). He did a great job of adapting to the talent on hand in 2015 and should do the same this season. He also relied on many young and unproven players (Rougned Odor, Delino DeShields and Keone Kela) while the top relievers at the end of last season were all devoid of postseason experience and had yet to qualify for arbitration.
The injuries of 2014 led to the breakout of last season, as Texas stayed relatively healthy and went to the playoffs for the fifth time in six years. Age and durability issues will start to creep up with some of the Texas veterans, but this is a deep and intimidating lineup that will be one of the best teams in the league provided they stay healthy. Another playoff trip seems in the offing.
My play: 3 rating on OVER 83.5 even
AL West prediction:
1. Rangers
2. Astros
3. Mariners
4. Athletics
5. Angels
GL to all this season.
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