Rexy's Oct 2013 International Fixtures...

CollegeKingRex

CollegeKingRex

CTG Regular
Quite a few plays in the coming days. Exciting time, as many slots for Brazil will be decided in the coming days.

UEFA plays:

Denmark -0.25 +108 small only. Italian lineup has a few no-names and they've already qualified. The early result in Armenia was favorable for the Danes, who just need to take care of business today to be in a prime spot for a possible play-off spot.


Sweden OVER 2.5 -115 small to medium. This one could lose, because of cautious play from both sides, each of which are playing for second behind Germany in their group. But each team has playmakers, and ultimately, will be playing for three points based on goal differential (for one side) and last day opponent (the other). Should be interesting, but OVER seems right to me.

Albania +1/2 -101 small. These shaving fixing fuckers aren't gonna get much of my money, but they certainly offer some value in this spot at home, still fighting for their lives.

Iceland -285 worst price ML medium to big. you have a problem with my laying -285 with Iceland ? I like their side plenty, and they've been gutty in the qualifying. It's a big price but seems a good spot versus an island country in the cold. In short, about as bad a road trip as there is for anyone in all of Europe.

Israel +2 even medium at Portugal. The Portuguese always seem to make this tougher on themselves than they should, and the Onthespot should give them all they want today.

Greece -140 small. Just took a small bite on a price that i feel is a smidge too low with a team still fighting for qualification at home against one who is finished.

Ukraine OVER 2.5 +110 medium to big vs. Poland. Two teams that need three points and will be scoreboard watching in Wembley after their game finishes (it starts in a few mins, with the England game going at 3 Eastern, one hour later).

Lean England UNDER, but they have an attacking lineup, and will be basing their attack perhaps on what happens in the first hour in Kharkiv. Will advise within the hour...


Back shortly with CONCACAF and CONMEBOL writeups and plays.

GL!

:shake:

:goal:
 
In CONCACAF, I have only one play tonight. While I will be keeping my ears tuned to what's happening in the Jamaica-US game, I will really be interested to see what happens at Azteca, where the Mexicans need a win over Panama to put themselves in position to qualify for the playoff with New Zealand next month. They have struggled to score throughout the year, and now come in with a new coach. Not sure what they can expect tonight. You can be sure CONCACAF will try to rig it for them to win, undoubtedly, but I could never lay that price.

The real value today lies in San Pedro Sula, where the Hondurans will try to wilt the already-qualified Ticos in the insufferable heat. They've gotten hot at the right time, beating the beaners at Azteca and getting a point at home to Panama last out. But that was a night game; this one will be played in the afternoon, where the Catrachos have already beaten the US in the first round of qualifiers earlier this year. Costa Rica despises Mexico, yet has the biggest say of anyone in terms of where they qualify, as they host Mexico next week in the last round of qualifying, and will surely want to beat them the same way they beat the US last month. It should be interesting for sure, but a laydown today would surprise me zero. I've seen it before out of an already-qualified Tico team in 2005.

The play: Honduras -130 worst price big.
 
In South America, two games will draw the bulk of attention. Peru is out, Argentina is playing a second team and is already qualified, and figure that it will be tough to see more than three goals there, but I can't bet them UNDER against a shoddy Peru defense. Paraguay is out, and Venezuela is all but out. The sucker size is Venezuela but the price seems to not agree, as you can barely take plus-money on them to win. Pass.

In Barranquilla on the northern (hot) Caribbean coast, Chile will travel to Colombia in search of any result, which would likely keep it out of the playoffs, while the bloodthirsty Colombians will hope to qualify today after having suffered colossal collapses in each of the last few campaigns. A DRAW would be my preference here but I'll pass on this one and watch the tape later (will be focused in Honduras and Quito).

Speaking of Quito, the most important match of the day anywhere figures to be the Uruguay match at Ecuador. Just a few months ago, it would seem unthinkable that the Uruguayans could catch Ecuador for fourth and avoid the two-legged playoff that will be against Jordan next month for the final spot. But Ecuador has been in shaky form, losing a player to death, getting blasted by a second-string German side in a friendly and then notching just four points in their four qualifiers since. Meanwhile, Uruguay won at Venezuela and Peru (both direct rivals for fifth at the time) to dispatch of those countries and then beating Colombia 2-0 in a rowdy Montevideo last matchday. But winning at Ecuador's mountain Quito fortress will be difficult - the stadium sits as one of the highest in the world among soccer-fervent countries. Assume Uruguay to sit deep and try to counter with Luis Suarez. Ecuador has enough to figure out the stingy Uruguay defense, which features some old-timers that could tire as the game wears on in the second half. I look for it to be offensive.

The play: OVER 2.25 -105 medium in Quito. I would bet the DRAW but something tells me Ecuador gets what they need out of this match at home.

GL!

:goal:
 
twinkee - this one on Honduras is one of my biggest soccer bets of all time. Circled it a month ago when i saw the fixtures for CONCACAF. CR already qualified, it sets up perfect. Just have to hope for no fuckery from the CONCACAF folks who want Mexico to pass Hondos for 3rd...
 
too early to tell. Not much movement today. Syndicates figure to get involved later. Whichever way it steams, they've probably got it right.
 
Does Honduras settle with a draw knowing they have Jamaica next? (may be dumb question, but only concern)
 
Intrigued by ur strong play on honduras.
Thinking of dropping hammer
 
CollegeKingRex said:
twinkee - this one on Honduras is one of my biggest soccer bets of all time. Circled it a month ago when i saw the fixtures for CONCACAF. CR already qualified, it sets up perfect. Just have to hope for no fuckery from the CONCACAF folks who want Mexico to pass Hondos for 3rd...
Click to expand...
BANG

I'd wager your bet was bigger than mine....still the biggest soccer bet of my life also

I owe the Honduran some big bucks

Glad we cashed.....super nice heading into the weekend
 
Dollaz said:
Does Honduras settle with a draw knowing they have Jamaica next? (may be dumb question, but only concern)
Click to expand...
In retrospect, the Honduran I talked to said NO

He said the reggae boys are not very good, but the surface in Jamaica is like playing on clay and that NO TEAM likes it....huge advantage JAM....for some CONCACAF squads they never win there
 
You are 100 percent right regarding the Kingston playing surface. The total on this game now is 1.75 at pinnacle, to give you some idea about "The Office".

Nothing for me in that one although leaning UNDER, as a draw will be good enough to send the Hondos through.

Ticos don't think much of gringos, but they don't like beaners, either. If CONCACAF doesn't intercede with the proceedings, then expect CR to vigorously defend their San Jose fortress, where they have picked up maximum points through all four qualifiers. They want not only to draw, but to win and knock the Mexicans out of the playoff spot. Of course, the USA will have to help the cause by losing to Panama (certainly possible) in Panama City. By bringing down a B-type side, they've already made it possible. Bottom line, although Mexico has had great success here in the past, the line isn't close to being right. Sure, the pressure is off, but the beaners only need a draw, so expect them to play for one. An easy take here.

THe play: Costa Rica +1/2 -114 medium.

No real opinion in Panama or Jamaica.

In South America, the stars align for the DRAW in Santiago, but I don't expect the Chileans to play along. Their fans would have none of that, as they are among the most exciting teams in the world. Ecuador is not nearly the same team on the road as they are at their mountain fortress in Quito. I don't think Chile will try to embarrass them, but blowing the 3-goal lead in the wilting Barranquilla heat the other day could well have them red-assed here. Chile is the side.

The play: Chile +146 medium.

A slight lean to Colombia tonight in Asuncion now that the pressure to qualify is off, but I'd have to see a lineup before I could get involved.

Uruguay fielding a first-unit side while the Argentines will be sending over several reserves. Montevideo is traditionally a tough place for teams to go in and steal points, and Uruguay's home form has been solid in the last few months.

The play: Uruguay +115 small to medium.

No opinion in Peru. GL fellas. Can't wait to watch the CR/Mexico game. I know it's good for the region if Mexico makes it to Brazil, but God I'd love them to stay home the year after they won Olympic Gold. That would be pure fucking gold...
 
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