CollegeKingRex
CTG Regular
I'll be firing some writeups I did now, with some picks later on today.
:shake:
JUVENILE TURF
The first of 13 Breeders' Cup races this year will feature a decidedly foreign flair to Americans. Of course, it should never be a surprise when European and other invaders try to come over to the United States and win a $1 million race on grass. Eight of the 20 horses pre-entered for the Juvenile Turf ran their last race on a different continent than North America. Six of them are guaranteed slots, should they decide to run.
That said, this won't be a race where the Europeans should dominate in either the wagering or on the track. Of the 20 pre-entered horses, 14 will be allowed into the field. Let's take a look at some of the 2-year olds that are drawing the most attention inside of a week until post time, which will be at 5:25 Eastern time as Santa Anita's sixth race on Friday, European invaders first.
Juddmonte Farms owns Commemorative, who should loom a large threat in this spot with wins in each of his last two on British grass, although his last effort he was tiring in the final furlong at Newmarket and his time (1:37.4) suggests that he'll need to improve to threaten these.
War Envoy has connections to be respected, with Michael Tabor as the owner and Aidan O'Brien as the trainer. He's never run farther than seven furlongs and has lost in each of his last five times out, although never beaten more than 3 1/2 lengths while running on good turf each time in Europe.
Wet Sail has won once in four races this year in Great Britain, but was beaten in a fairly-weak field the last time out.
Aktabantay placed first or second in each of his first five starts in Great Britain before running a solid sixth in his last race, losing by just 2 1/2 lengths. He is a late scratch, however.
Hootenanny comes back to the States after running his last two races in Great Britain and France. He broke his maiden in April at Keeneland before running third in a dirt sprint on the Pimlico sloppy track on Preakness Eve. He won a turf sprint at Ascot before taking two months off and finishing second by a half-length in France on Aug. 24, so he'll come into this one well rested, even though he's never ran farther than six furlongs. Irish bookmaker Paddypower.com rated him as the 13-to-8 favorite (risk $2 to be paid $5.25) in this race a week ago, so he must be respected under capable connections with Tabor and Wesley Ward.
There are several American-based horses than could contend as well. Conquest Typhoon won the Summer Stakes at Woodbine two starts back and figures to be competitive in this eight-furlong race, with speed and pace ratings that suggest that he should fit in well in this spot. Lawn Ranger invades off two wins on Kentucky turf, one at Kentucky Downs and the other in a Grade III stakes at Keeneland on Oct. 5, but his speed figures suggest that he might be in over his head here.
International Star beat Conquest Typhoon last out in the Grade III Grey Stakes, also at Woodbine on Oct. 5, but had to work plenty hard to do so, going from the rail to four-wide and getting up late in a great ride from jockey Ramon Hernandez.
Startup Nation was a disappointing fourth in his last start, the Grade III Pilgrim at Belmont Park on Sept. 28. He went off as a heavy 3-to-5 favorite, but did show some late life in the race after being listless for the first six furlongs. He won two races in August at Saratoga to kick off his career with Joel Rosario aboard, including a Grade II.
Imperia is a Godolphin horse that seems to fit in here. He was bred for $100,000 out of Medaglia d'Oro, a multiple stakes winner that ran no worse than eighth in all three Triple Crown races in 2002. His win in the Pilgrim under Jose Castellano was the highest last race speed rating and Kiaran McLaughlin is a trainer that must be respected in these types of races. His half-mile work on Oct. 15 (a 48.3 breeze) seems to indicate he'll be ready to fire again, although bettors probably won't get the same 11-to-2 that he went off at in the Pilgrim.
Danny Boy ran fourth and second in two Kentucky stakes, though his effort in the Bourbon with Julien Leparoux aboard has convinced trainer Dale Romans to keep him on the grass in this spot, and his Oct. 18 workout (59.1 in five furlongs at Santa Anita was the fifth-fastest of 83 that day) indicates that he could be live.
Offering Plan was another Pilgrim horse, finishing third there in a troubled trip after breaking his maiden in his first start a month earlier at The Spa. Chad Brown also trains this one, in addition to Startup Nation.
Luck of the Kitten is the second of two pre-entered for owners Ken and Sarah Ramsey, with International Star. Luck of the Kitten is moving up in class, but did win a stakes race at Santa Anita in his last out on Oct. 5. He'll need to run at that level or better to be competitive here.
DIRT MILE
The Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile is the one race that a woebegone handicapper thinks that he might have a shot. Unlike the other BC races, the Dirt Mile was capped at 12 horses to enter the starting gate. The remaining dozen BC races all allow for 14 horses to go to post, and some races (Turf Sprint) as many as 29 (!) horses were pre-entered last week.
With the defection of the now-retired Capo Bastone and the connections of Bourbon Courage choosing for him to try the Sprint, there should be 10 horses that enter the starting gate Friday afternoon at 6:05 p.m. EDT in the seventh running of the Dirt Mile.
No horse has ever won the race twice, but Goldencents will try to change that. The defending champion drew the rail here, and was nicked at the wire as the odds-on favorite in a 6-furlong race to Rich Tapestry, a horse who will be competing in the Sprint Saturday.
Goldencents won a 7-furlong race at Del Mar in his previous start, Aug. 24, breaking the track record in the process. Rafael Bejarano will ride for new trainer Leandro Mora. Doug O'Neill is serving a 45-day suspension and cannot enter horses into Breeders' Cup races under the convicted trainer rule.
The only international horse in this race is Bronzo, a Chilean who hit the board in all nine starts last year. Curiously, he's only raced four times this year, but won the Group II Copa de Oro in his last start on June 27 at Hipico Chile in Santiago, getting an automatic bid to the field as part of the Breeders' Cup Challenge "Win and You're In" promotion.
Tapiture and Vicar's in Trouble are the lone 3-year olds in this field. Vicar's in Trouble is a Louisiana-bred that won the Grade II Super Derby on Sept. 6 and was second in the Indiana Derby on Oct. 4 for trainer Mike Maker. John R. Velasquez will take the mount from the 3-hole, which is a good spot for his early running style. Cutting back to a mile should't hurt, either.
Tapiture should be a key contender as well. The West Virginia Derby winner was considering going in the Classic but decided to stick to 8 furlongs. His connections are familiar with this race, as another Winchell Thoroughbreds' homebred son of Tapit (Tapizar) won the Dirt Mile in 2012. Steve Asmussen trains and Rosie Napravnik will get the mount for the fourth straight time.
Fed Biz runs for the fourth time this year, and he's improved noticeably from his 2013 form, with a win and two seconds since he started his campaign on July 26 with a track-recod breaking win in the Grade II San Diego Handicap at Del Mar. Bob Baffert trains, and Martin Garcia rides.
Carve will try the race as well, for Louisville trainer Brad Cox, who will be entering his first-ever Breeders' Cup starter. The gelding might be in over his head here after running fifth in a Churchill prep, weaking to lose by more than four lengths at 3-to-1.
Golden Ticket will try this spot as well, and his best dirt speed is faster than the average winning speed of this race, but his recent figures have not been nearly good enough to convince anyone except for his most ardent followers.
Pants on Fire ran seventh in this race last year, and the 6-year old won his most recent prep, an ungraded stakes at seven furlongs.
Handsome Mike and Big Bane Theory are longshots to round out the field.
JUVE FILLIES TURF
Trainer Chad Brown has steadily climbed in stature as a trainer since going out on his own in late 2007 after spending many years under Bobby Frankel. The proof that he's "made it" as an elite-level trainer will come Friday at 6:50 p.m. EDT at Santa Anita Park, when the gates will open for the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf.
Brown will be saddling four horses, with the 2-for-2 Lady Eli being his lowest-priced shot (6-to-1) in the race. Irad Ortiz Jr. will ride for Sheep Pond Partners out of the 4-hole. Lady Eli won by three and was drawing clear even after the line in an impressive Grade III stakes win (Miss Grillo) at Belmont a month ago. Her mediocre speed figures are the one thing her doubters will try to beat.
Brown also sends the third and fourth place finishers of the Miss Grillo to the gate here, in Tammy the Torpedo and Partisan Politics. Those horses were both bet more heavily in the win pool in that start than Lady Eli, but failed to fire.
Sivoliere is perhaps the most game bullet that Brown will fire in this race. She will break out of the 6-hole with the irrepressable Gary Stevens aboard, coming back this time from reconstructive knee surgery. Sivoliere is shipping in from Europe and is 3-for-5, running third in her last start, the Group 3 Longines Prix du Calvados. That was more than two months ago, and she might relish the extra furlong here.
There are a couple of other Euro invaders that could pose a threat. Osaila has won three of her last four since July 17 but ran fifth in her only Group 1 race. Frankie Dettori will ride for trainer Richard Hannon Sr., but he'll have to be careful after getting stuck with an inside draw (No. 2).
Qualify got the other end of the stick, drawing the outside post in a field of 14. The Aidan O'Brien-trained filly won the CL and MF Weld Park Stakes at the Curragh last out.
British-bred Prize Exhibit ships in to run her ninth (!) race as a 2-year old. Canada is also represented here, as Conquest Stables' Conquest Harlanate won two different graded stakes on two different surfaces at Woodbine coming into this race, and has won three in a row for trainer Mark Casse. Patrick Husbands will ride COnquest Harlanate, a dangerous 10-to-1 breaking from post position No. 11.
The rest of the American contingent aside from Brown is formidable, as well. Morning line favorite Sunset Glow (7-to-2) will break from the 3-hole with jockey Victor Espinosa riding for Wesley Ward and Ten Broeck Farm. Sunset Glow went to Royal Ascot in June and ran second in the Group 3 Albany Stakes. She then came back to Del Mar to win two races on the polytrack; the Grade II Sorrento, then the Grade I Del Mar Debutante on Aug. 30.
She's been on the shelf since then, and not gone beyond 7 furlongs, but each of her four starts in succession has been longer than the last. Ward should have her cranked up here, and Daily Racing Form handicapper Mike Watchmaker considers the best 2-year old filly in the world coming into the race.
Rainha Da Bateria will ship in from her Fair Hill base off a win in the Grade III Jessamine Stakes at Keeneland in a Breeders' Cup Challenge "Win and You're In" race on Oct. 8. Joel Rosario will ride for trainer Graham Motion and owner Three Chimneys Farm. She's many of the intriguing "mid-shots" in this field of young fillies in the 10-1 or 15-1 range in the morning line.
Isabella Sings was beaten a neck by Conquest Harlanate in the Grade 2 Natalma at Woodbine and is also coming into this race off the same 7-week layoff her rival is; she was favored in that one and figures to draw some attention at the tote for trainer Todd Pletcher and his longtime No. 1 jockey, John R. Velazquez.
Quality Rocks cuts back to a mile after tiring late in her second place finish to Rainha Da Bateria in the Jessamine. Joel Lezcano will ride her out of the 10-hole for Bill Mott. The D. Wayne Lukas trained Lady Zuzu was an impressive maiden winner on Oct. 9 at Keeneland after getting trounced in the Grade 1 Spinaway at Saratoga earlier in the summer. That race was on the main track rated sloppy that day, so some handicappers will likely throw that effort out. Still, her speed figures in the other two efforts seem a notch below the best here.
Nicky's Brown Miss will start for owner/trainer Savino Capilupi out of the 8-hole. She won a small stakes at Kentucky Downs before running 10th in the Miss Grillo, behind all three Brown-trained horses. Brown will be gunning for his second Breeders' Cup win; his Maram won the first-ever Juvenile Fillies Turf back in 2008.
DISTAFF
Earlier in this campaign, the Breeders' Cup Distaff was expected to be one of, if not THE most anticipated races of the entire 2014 horse racing calendar year.
Two-time Breeders' Cup champion Beholder was expected to be favored to defend her Distaff crown until spiking a fever earlier this month and being shelved for this race. Her absence came on the heels of prime contender and four-time Grade I winner Princess of Sylmar being retired in September.
The absence of those two fillies takes some of the luster off the race, but 11 plenty capable others will go to post at 7:35 EDT in the ninth race at Santa Anita as the fourth and final Breeders' Cup Friday race.
The two horses starting on the outside of the 1 1/8-mile $2 million race will be prohibitive favorites.
Untapable was assigned the 5-to-2 morning line favorite for owner Winchell Thoroughbreds, trainer Steve Asmussen and jockey Rosie Napravnik. This will be her first time going against older horses, but she's already faced males (running fifth in the Haskell Stakes at Monmouth in her only defeat in six starts in 2014).
The even-money winner in the Kentucky Oaks this year will be difficult to handle if she comes close to running like that, and her Oct. 19 5-furlong zip in 58.3 was the fastest of 66 that day at that distance at Santa Anita, and signals she's likely ready.
To her outside is Close Hatches, the second place finisher in this event to Beholder last year. The 4-year old Bill Mott trainee started the year with a Grade II win in the Azeri at Oaklawn Park before winning three Grade I's at different tracks this summer. She threw in a clunker in the Grade I Spinster as a 1-to-5 favorite at Keeneland last time out. That puzzled her trainer, but has come out of that race in good form and is training well leading up to this spot.
Close Hatches won the Cotillion last year at Parx Racing; that's the same prep that Untapable used for this race last month), and she's won five Grade I races in her career. When you add the favt that Mott has won this race five times, more than any other conditioner, she could end up being the post time favorite despite opening 3-to-1 in the morning.
There will be plenty of early speed in the race. Tiz Midnight led for much of the way in the Grade I Zenyatta on Sept. 27 at Santa Anita before begrudgingly giving way to Beholder late. She figures to be near the front for Bob Baffert and Victor Espinoza.
Iotapa ran third in that same race and has three graded stakes wins in 2014, the most notable being an eye-popping 10-length win on the Vanity on June 14 at the same venue and 9-furlong distance as the Distaff. Her last two efforts have been considerably slower, however.
Belle Gallantey has two front-running wins in her last three starts, with the loss coming on the Saratoga slop. Throw that one out, and the Rudy Rodriguez trainee ridden by Jose Ortiz certainly is a threat, carrying the same 6-to-1 morning line price tag as Iotapa.
Two more starters out of the Spinster include its winner, Don't Tell Sophia, and second-place Ria Antonia. Don't Tell Sophia has four wins in five starts this year, and the 6-year old was beaten less than two lengths by Close Hatches on a wet-fast track in the Azeri. Ria Antonia won (*placed first through disqualification after running second) the Juvenile Fillies last year, and will break from the 9-hole with jockey Paco Lopez aboard. This season, Ria Antonia enters 0-for-8, with just three seconds to show for her efforts.
Valiant Emilia ships in from Peru after winning the Grade III Clasico Cesar del Rio Suito back on June 22. Her series of works have been mediocre, and Rafael Bejarano will get the mount for the Gary Mandella trainee.
Unbridled Forever was a beaten favorite in her last start on Oct. 4 in the Indiana Oaks and figures to rate below these according to speed figs, despite coming in the money in six of seven starts this season. Stanwyck, like Ria Antonia, is winless this season, but has been in the money in six of seven starts. Like Unbridled Forever, her speed figs rate her as an outsider.
L’Amour de Ma Vie rounds out the field and gives it an international touch. The British-bred gray, whose name translates to 'The Love of My Life', is 0-for-3 in Group 1 stakes this year, but has won a Grade II in Dubai and ran second in another at Royal Ascot. The Pia Brandt trainee has competed in Britain, France, Italy, and the United Arab Emirates and has been up and down. She comes into this race off a disappointing ninth-place finish as the favorite in the Group 1 Premio Vittoro di Capua in Italy on Sept. 28.
:shake:
JUVENILE TURF
The first of 13 Breeders' Cup races this year will feature a decidedly foreign flair to Americans. Of course, it should never be a surprise when European and other invaders try to come over to the United States and win a $1 million race on grass. Eight of the 20 horses pre-entered for the Juvenile Turf ran their last race on a different continent than North America. Six of them are guaranteed slots, should they decide to run.
That said, this won't be a race where the Europeans should dominate in either the wagering or on the track. Of the 20 pre-entered horses, 14 will be allowed into the field. Let's take a look at some of the 2-year olds that are drawing the most attention inside of a week until post time, which will be at 5:25 Eastern time as Santa Anita's sixth race on Friday, European invaders first.
Juddmonte Farms owns Commemorative, who should loom a large threat in this spot with wins in each of his last two on British grass, although his last effort he was tiring in the final furlong at Newmarket and his time (1:37.4) suggests that he'll need to improve to threaten these.
War Envoy has connections to be respected, with Michael Tabor as the owner and Aidan O'Brien as the trainer. He's never run farther than seven furlongs and has lost in each of his last five times out, although never beaten more than 3 1/2 lengths while running on good turf each time in Europe.
Wet Sail has won once in four races this year in Great Britain, but was beaten in a fairly-weak field the last time out.
Aktabantay placed first or second in each of his first five starts in Great Britain before running a solid sixth in his last race, losing by just 2 1/2 lengths. He is a late scratch, however.
Hootenanny comes back to the States after running his last two races in Great Britain and France. He broke his maiden in April at Keeneland before running third in a dirt sprint on the Pimlico sloppy track on Preakness Eve. He won a turf sprint at Ascot before taking two months off and finishing second by a half-length in France on Aug. 24, so he'll come into this one well rested, even though he's never ran farther than six furlongs. Irish bookmaker Paddypower.com rated him as the 13-to-8 favorite (risk $2 to be paid $5.25) in this race a week ago, so he must be respected under capable connections with Tabor and Wesley Ward.
There are several American-based horses than could contend as well. Conquest Typhoon won the Summer Stakes at Woodbine two starts back and figures to be competitive in this eight-furlong race, with speed and pace ratings that suggest that he should fit in well in this spot. Lawn Ranger invades off two wins on Kentucky turf, one at Kentucky Downs and the other in a Grade III stakes at Keeneland on Oct. 5, but his speed figures suggest that he might be in over his head here.
International Star beat Conquest Typhoon last out in the Grade III Grey Stakes, also at Woodbine on Oct. 5, but had to work plenty hard to do so, going from the rail to four-wide and getting up late in a great ride from jockey Ramon Hernandez.
Startup Nation was a disappointing fourth in his last start, the Grade III Pilgrim at Belmont Park on Sept. 28. He went off as a heavy 3-to-5 favorite, but did show some late life in the race after being listless for the first six furlongs. He won two races in August at Saratoga to kick off his career with Joel Rosario aboard, including a Grade II.
Imperia is a Godolphin horse that seems to fit in here. He was bred for $100,000 out of Medaglia d'Oro, a multiple stakes winner that ran no worse than eighth in all three Triple Crown races in 2002. His win in the Pilgrim under Jose Castellano was the highest last race speed rating and Kiaran McLaughlin is a trainer that must be respected in these types of races. His half-mile work on Oct. 15 (a 48.3 breeze) seems to indicate he'll be ready to fire again, although bettors probably won't get the same 11-to-2 that he went off at in the Pilgrim.
Danny Boy ran fourth and second in two Kentucky stakes, though his effort in the Bourbon with Julien Leparoux aboard has convinced trainer Dale Romans to keep him on the grass in this spot, and his Oct. 18 workout (59.1 in five furlongs at Santa Anita was the fifth-fastest of 83 that day) indicates that he could be live.
Offering Plan was another Pilgrim horse, finishing third there in a troubled trip after breaking his maiden in his first start a month earlier at The Spa. Chad Brown also trains this one, in addition to Startup Nation.
Luck of the Kitten is the second of two pre-entered for owners Ken and Sarah Ramsey, with International Star. Luck of the Kitten is moving up in class, but did win a stakes race at Santa Anita in his last out on Oct. 5. He'll need to run at that level or better to be competitive here.
DIRT MILE
The Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile is the one race that a woebegone handicapper thinks that he might have a shot. Unlike the other BC races, the Dirt Mile was capped at 12 horses to enter the starting gate. The remaining dozen BC races all allow for 14 horses to go to post, and some races (Turf Sprint) as many as 29 (!) horses were pre-entered last week.
With the defection of the now-retired Capo Bastone and the connections of Bourbon Courage choosing for him to try the Sprint, there should be 10 horses that enter the starting gate Friday afternoon at 6:05 p.m. EDT in the seventh running of the Dirt Mile.
No horse has ever won the race twice, but Goldencents will try to change that. The defending champion drew the rail here, and was nicked at the wire as the odds-on favorite in a 6-furlong race to Rich Tapestry, a horse who will be competing in the Sprint Saturday.
Goldencents won a 7-furlong race at Del Mar in his previous start, Aug. 24, breaking the track record in the process. Rafael Bejarano will ride for new trainer Leandro Mora. Doug O'Neill is serving a 45-day suspension and cannot enter horses into Breeders' Cup races under the convicted trainer rule.
The only international horse in this race is Bronzo, a Chilean who hit the board in all nine starts last year. Curiously, he's only raced four times this year, but won the Group II Copa de Oro in his last start on June 27 at Hipico Chile in Santiago, getting an automatic bid to the field as part of the Breeders' Cup Challenge "Win and You're In" promotion.
Tapiture and Vicar's in Trouble are the lone 3-year olds in this field. Vicar's in Trouble is a Louisiana-bred that won the Grade II Super Derby on Sept. 6 and was second in the Indiana Derby on Oct. 4 for trainer Mike Maker. John R. Velasquez will take the mount from the 3-hole, which is a good spot for his early running style. Cutting back to a mile should't hurt, either.
Tapiture should be a key contender as well. The West Virginia Derby winner was considering going in the Classic but decided to stick to 8 furlongs. His connections are familiar with this race, as another Winchell Thoroughbreds' homebred son of Tapit (Tapizar) won the Dirt Mile in 2012. Steve Asmussen trains and Rosie Napravnik will get the mount for the fourth straight time.
Fed Biz runs for the fourth time this year, and he's improved noticeably from his 2013 form, with a win and two seconds since he started his campaign on July 26 with a track-recod breaking win in the Grade II San Diego Handicap at Del Mar. Bob Baffert trains, and Martin Garcia rides.
Carve will try the race as well, for Louisville trainer Brad Cox, who will be entering his first-ever Breeders' Cup starter. The gelding might be in over his head here after running fifth in a Churchill prep, weaking to lose by more than four lengths at 3-to-1.
Golden Ticket will try this spot as well, and his best dirt speed is faster than the average winning speed of this race, but his recent figures have not been nearly good enough to convince anyone except for his most ardent followers.
Pants on Fire ran seventh in this race last year, and the 6-year old won his most recent prep, an ungraded stakes at seven furlongs.
Handsome Mike and Big Bane Theory are longshots to round out the field.
JUVE FILLIES TURF
Trainer Chad Brown has steadily climbed in stature as a trainer since going out on his own in late 2007 after spending many years under Bobby Frankel. The proof that he's "made it" as an elite-level trainer will come Friday at 6:50 p.m. EDT at Santa Anita Park, when the gates will open for the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf.
Brown will be saddling four horses, with the 2-for-2 Lady Eli being his lowest-priced shot (6-to-1) in the race. Irad Ortiz Jr. will ride for Sheep Pond Partners out of the 4-hole. Lady Eli won by three and was drawing clear even after the line in an impressive Grade III stakes win (Miss Grillo) at Belmont a month ago. Her mediocre speed figures are the one thing her doubters will try to beat.
Brown also sends the third and fourth place finishers of the Miss Grillo to the gate here, in Tammy the Torpedo and Partisan Politics. Those horses were both bet more heavily in the win pool in that start than Lady Eli, but failed to fire.
Sivoliere is perhaps the most game bullet that Brown will fire in this race. She will break out of the 6-hole with the irrepressable Gary Stevens aboard, coming back this time from reconstructive knee surgery. Sivoliere is shipping in from Europe and is 3-for-5, running third in her last start, the Group 3 Longines Prix du Calvados. That was more than two months ago, and she might relish the extra furlong here.
There are a couple of other Euro invaders that could pose a threat. Osaila has won three of her last four since July 17 but ran fifth in her only Group 1 race. Frankie Dettori will ride for trainer Richard Hannon Sr., but he'll have to be careful after getting stuck with an inside draw (No. 2).
Qualify got the other end of the stick, drawing the outside post in a field of 14. The Aidan O'Brien-trained filly won the CL and MF Weld Park Stakes at the Curragh last out.
British-bred Prize Exhibit ships in to run her ninth (!) race as a 2-year old. Canada is also represented here, as Conquest Stables' Conquest Harlanate won two different graded stakes on two different surfaces at Woodbine coming into this race, and has won three in a row for trainer Mark Casse. Patrick Husbands will ride COnquest Harlanate, a dangerous 10-to-1 breaking from post position No. 11.
The rest of the American contingent aside from Brown is formidable, as well. Morning line favorite Sunset Glow (7-to-2) will break from the 3-hole with jockey Victor Espinosa riding for Wesley Ward and Ten Broeck Farm. Sunset Glow went to Royal Ascot in June and ran second in the Group 3 Albany Stakes. She then came back to Del Mar to win two races on the polytrack; the Grade II Sorrento, then the Grade I Del Mar Debutante on Aug. 30.
She's been on the shelf since then, and not gone beyond 7 furlongs, but each of her four starts in succession has been longer than the last. Ward should have her cranked up here, and Daily Racing Form handicapper Mike Watchmaker considers the best 2-year old filly in the world coming into the race.
Rainha Da Bateria will ship in from her Fair Hill base off a win in the Grade III Jessamine Stakes at Keeneland in a Breeders' Cup Challenge "Win and You're In" race on Oct. 8. Joel Rosario will ride for trainer Graham Motion and owner Three Chimneys Farm. She's many of the intriguing "mid-shots" in this field of young fillies in the 10-1 or 15-1 range in the morning line.
Isabella Sings was beaten a neck by Conquest Harlanate in the Grade 2 Natalma at Woodbine and is also coming into this race off the same 7-week layoff her rival is; she was favored in that one and figures to draw some attention at the tote for trainer Todd Pletcher and his longtime No. 1 jockey, John R. Velazquez.
Quality Rocks cuts back to a mile after tiring late in her second place finish to Rainha Da Bateria in the Jessamine. Joel Lezcano will ride her out of the 10-hole for Bill Mott. The D. Wayne Lukas trained Lady Zuzu was an impressive maiden winner on Oct. 9 at Keeneland after getting trounced in the Grade 1 Spinaway at Saratoga earlier in the summer. That race was on the main track rated sloppy that day, so some handicappers will likely throw that effort out. Still, her speed figures in the other two efforts seem a notch below the best here.
Nicky's Brown Miss will start for owner/trainer Savino Capilupi out of the 8-hole. She won a small stakes at Kentucky Downs before running 10th in the Miss Grillo, behind all three Brown-trained horses. Brown will be gunning for his second Breeders' Cup win; his Maram won the first-ever Juvenile Fillies Turf back in 2008.
DISTAFF
Earlier in this campaign, the Breeders' Cup Distaff was expected to be one of, if not THE most anticipated races of the entire 2014 horse racing calendar year.
Two-time Breeders' Cup champion Beholder was expected to be favored to defend her Distaff crown until spiking a fever earlier this month and being shelved for this race. Her absence came on the heels of prime contender and four-time Grade I winner Princess of Sylmar being retired in September.
The absence of those two fillies takes some of the luster off the race, but 11 plenty capable others will go to post at 7:35 EDT in the ninth race at Santa Anita as the fourth and final Breeders' Cup Friday race.
The two horses starting on the outside of the 1 1/8-mile $2 million race will be prohibitive favorites.
Untapable was assigned the 5-to-2 morning line favorite for owner Winchell Thoroughbreds, trainer Steve Asmussen and jockey Rosie Napravnik. This will be her first time going against older horses, but she's already faced males (running fifth in the Haskell Stakes at Monmouth in her only defeat in six starts in 2014).
The even-money winner in the Kentucky Oaks this year will be difficult to handle if she comes close to running like that, and her Oct. 19 5-furlong zip in 58.3 was the fastest of 66 that day at that distance at Santa Anita, and signals she's likely ready.
To her outside is Close Hatches, the second place finisher in this event to Beholder last year. The 4-year old Bill Mott trainee started the year with a Grade II win in the Azeri at Oaklawn Park before winning three Grade I's at different tracks this summer. She threw in a clunker in the Grade I Spinster as a 1-to-5 favorite at Keeneland last time out. That puzzled her trainer, but has come out of that race in good form and is training well leading up to this spot.
Close Hatches won the Cotillion last year at Parx Racing; that's the same prep that Untapable used for this race last month), and she's won five Grade I races in her career. When you add the favt that Mott has won this race five times, more than any other conditioner, she could end up being the post time favorite despite opening 3-to-1 in the morning.
There will be plenty of early speed in the race. Tiz Midnight led for much of the way in the Grade I Zenyatta on Sept. 27 at Santa Anita before begrudgingly giving way to Beholder late. She figures to be near the front for Bob Baffert and Victor Espinoza.
Iotapa ran third in that same race and has three graded stakes wins in 2014, the most notable being an eye-popping 10-length win on the Vanity on June 14 at the same venue and 9-furlong distance as the Distaff. Her last two efforts have been considerably slower, however.
Belle Gallantey has two front-running wins in her last three starts, with the loss coming on the Saratoga slop. Throw that one out, and the Rudy Rodriguez trainee ridden by Jose Ortiz certainly is a threat, carrying the same 6-to-1 morning line price tag as Iotapa.
Two more starters out of the Spinster include its winner, Don't Tell Sophia, and second-place Ria Antonia. Don't Tell Sophia has four wins in five starts this year, and the 6-year old was beaten less than two lengths by Close Hatches on a wet-fast track in the Azeri. Ria Antonia won (*placed first through disqualification after running second) the Juvenile Fillies last year, and will break from the 9-hole with jockey Paco Lopez aboard. This season, Ria Antonia enters 0-for-8, with just three seconds to show for her efforts.
Valiant Emilia ships in from Peru after winning the Grade III Clasico Cesar del Rio Suito back on June 22. Her series of works have been mediocre, and Rafael Bejarano will get the mount for the Gary Mandella trainee.
Unbridled Forever was a beaten favorite in her last start on Oct. 4 in the Indiana Oaks and figures to rate below these according to speed figs, despite coming in the money in six of seven starts this season. Stanwyck, like Ria Antonia, is winless this season, but has been in the money in six of seven starts. Like Unbridled Forever, her speed figs rate her as an outsider.
L’Amour de Ma Vie rounds out the field and gives it an international touch. The British-bred gray, whose name translates to 'The Love of My Life', is 0-for-3 in Group 1 stakes this year, but has won a Grade II in Dubai and ran second in another at Royal Ascot. The Pia Brandt trainee has competed in Britain, France, Italy, and the United Arab Emirates and has been up and down. She comes into this race off a disappointing ninth-place finish as the favorite in the Group 1 Premio Vittoro di Capua in Italy on Sept. 28.
