CollegeKingRex
CTG Regular
AL East Preview: Is it the crapshoot everyone thinks it might be?
When the Hilton opened its baseball season wins totals in February, no division was considered tighter from top to bottom than the American League East. Boston (84.5 wins) was slated at the top, with Tampa Bay (80 wins) was touted, ever so slightly, to bring up the rear.
The differences in those teams are minimal, even though how those teams are constructed are not. Boston is projected by some simulation systems to both score AND give up more than 700 runs. Meanwhile, the Rays should be the worst offensive team in the division, but has enough good pitching to overcome that and compete.
Baltimore, the New York Yankees and Toronto all opened within a game of each other, and remain that way at the Westgate and offshore as well. Bet33.com currently has the Yankees at 82.5 wins, with the Blue Jays and Orioles at 83 each.
Boston's offense should be the best in baseball from top to bottom if everyone stays healthy. The Red Sox have stockpiled some scary youth talent and should some of those pieces mature, then last year's 71-91 mark will be long forgotten, and soon. Will Middlebrooks, Jackie Bradley, Jr. and Xander Bogaerts didn't hit last year, and it was too much to ask a lineup that regularly featured A.J. Pierzynski, Jonny Gomes and a banged-up Dustin Pedroia to overcome that. This time around, Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval are added to the middle of the lineup to support Pedroia, Ortiz and Mike Napoli. Remember the name Rusney Castillo as well, another young Red Sox OF that could come up as the everyday right fielder not long after Patriots Day.
The Boston rotation will showcase a plethora of mid to back-end starters. Rick Porcello and Wade Miley are durable and will eat innings, but Clay Buchholz, Justin Masterson and Joe Kelly all seem destined to miss starts at some point. Who fills in? The bullpen should be adequate, and those who are bullish on Boston are counting on it to outscore foes.
Tampa Bay enters the season eager to erase the taste of 2014. The Rays lost their 81st game in the last week of the 2014 regular season, ending a streak of six straight seasons over over-.500 ball dating to 2008; the Yankees and Cardinals are the only two franchises who can boast longer runs of the same. Even when at 76-81, they had still outscored opponents by 12 runs, which only told a partial story about a strong run of bad luck for the Rays last year.
I won't bore you with boring phrases such as "cluster luck", "league-average sequencing" and "Pythagorean luck" which speak to how fortunate Baltimore was in pitching last year and how unlucky Tampa was. Just remember: worst lineup, best pitching.
Baltimore and Toronto are expected to finish close to each other according to most projections. The Orioles did less in this offseason than any other team in baseball, standing pat off a 96-win season. Travis Snider takes over in right field for Nick Markakis, and the O's lost 2014 home run king Nelson Cruz to Seattle. Baltimore's pitching is a smidge better than Boston, while the offense is expected to be a bit worse, but not much. The shrewd front office and manager have helped Baltimore outdo their projections for the better part of this decade.
The Jays took a big hit in their starting rotation when stud youngster Marcus Stroman was lost to a season-ending knee injury. Innings-eaters Mark Buehrle and R.A. Dickey will anchor the rotation, but some of the young arms are going to have to produce to keep Toronto competitive at the top. The batting order is perhaps unrivaled in baseball from 1 through 5, and they play in a very hitting-friendly park. There appears to be little help at the bottom of the order, however, and this tempers any extreme hope for the Jays, who haven't been to the playoffs since winning a second World Series back in the early 90s.
The Yankees are probably considered a contender in name only; it's hard to ever write off New York in April. The rotation is spearheaded by a Japanese pitcher who has a minor ligament tear in his pitching arm. CC Sabathia was subpar last year, and then missed time with a serious injury. Michael Pineda has had serious shoulder problems, and there is little behind them. The Yankees might well struggle with left-handed pitching; the opening day projected lineup has zero right-handed hitters (three switch hitters) and six lefties.
The Yankees won 84 games last year, despite a Pythag win run total suggesting they should have won 77. This makes the second season in a row that Joe Girardi found a way to win more games than he lost despite being outscored for the season, an indication of good managing. New York has veterans who have won at the highest level, and Alex Rodriguez returns as a potential key piece in the summer that he'll turn 40.
1. Tampa Bay
2. Boston
3. Baltimore
4. Toronto
5. N.Y. Yankees
In a race that's slated to be tighter than any on paper, might as well go with the longest shot on the board. It holds true in horse racing, and also for the 2015 American League East. The Rays have the lowest OVER/UNDER season wins total on the board both offshore and in Las Vegas.
The Rays were a very unlucky team both at the plate and in the field in 2014. The pitching rotation should be best in the division by a fair amount, the defense should be perhaps the best in baseball (in a pitcher's park at home) and the offense should be adequate enough to win scads of close, low-scoring games. This might not happen. Tampa might end up going 86-76 and missing the playoffs entirely while still going over their projected season wins by the linesmakers by eight or nine wins. But by and large I think the AL East is down a tick or two from last year, and will call for Tampa to win 89 games and a division crown.
Boston should contend for a wild-card and finish second in the division. The Red Sox are the mirror opposite of the Giants, having success in odd-numbered years this decade. Still, the Red Sox are counting on a lot of young bats and a rotation full of middling and back-end starters from a team that only won 71 games last season. A jump of a dozen wins or so is plausible, but any more than that might be tough.
Baltimore and Toronto to me look real close to Boston; I see very little difference. Obviously, injuries and luck will have to something to do with all of that. While I can't predict injuries, I can't ignore Buck Showalter's impact on Baltimore, either. They outdo my projection almost every season, and I would hardly be surprised if they won the division again. Therefore, I will project the Orioles in front of Toronto. The front office basically sat pat on a team that won 96 games last season. They won't be that lucky this time around, but they would still have to lose a dozen games from that pace to not make the playoffs. That is a big number.
Toronto has a strong lineup at the top, two veteran arms that will eat innings and save the pen for the back-end rotation guys. The Jays have lots of good young arms, but whether they are ready to pitch at this level is probably the key to them having a chance to play meaningful baseball in October for the first time in many of their fans' lifetime. A breakout season from a bottom-of-the-order guy would help tremendously, and catcher Russell Martin figures to improve the Jays defensively by 30 or more runs, which could be as much as four wins. Four wins in this division, this year, would mean the world.
Yankee manager Joe Girardi cobbled together 239 starts from over-age-40 players Ichiro Suzuki and Derek Jeter, and just 169 starts from the entire roster of under-30 players. This is quite likely the first time in history a team got more starts (a full half-season worth) from 40-and-over players than those under age 30. It was the second time in a row that New York had fewer runs than its opponents over a season, yet finished above .500, a testament to good managing. That's the only thing keeping this flawed bunch out of the cellar in 2015, and it can certainly happen.
Futures Recommendations: Tampa Bay to win the division
Tampa Bay season wins OVER
Yankees season wins UNDER
When the Hilton opened its baseball season wins totals in February, no division was considered tighter from top to bottom than the American League East. Boston (84.5 wins) was slated at the top, with Tampa Bay (80 wins) was touted, ever so slightly, to bring up the rear.
The differences in those teams are minimal, even though how those teams are constructed are not. Boston is projected by some simulation systems to both score AND give up more than 700 runs. Meanwhile, the Rays should be the worst offensive team in the division, but has enough good pitching to overcome that and compete.
Baltimore, the New York Yankees and Toronto all opened within a game of each other, and remain that way at the Westgate and offshore as well. Bet33.com currently has the Yankees at 82.5 wins, with the Blue Jays and Orioles at 83 each.
Boston's offense should be the best in baseball from top to bottom if everyone stays healthy. The Red Sox have stockpiled some scary youth talent and should some of those pieces mature, then last year's 71-91 mark will be long forgotten, and soon. Will Middlebrooks, Jackie Bradley, Jr. and Xander Bogaerts didn't hit last year, and it was too much to ask a lineup that regularly featured A.J. Pierzynski, Jonny Gomes and a banged-up Dustin Pedroia to overcome that. This time around, Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval are added to the middle of the lineup to support Pedroia, Ortiz and Mike Napoli. Remember the name Rusney Castillo as well, another young Red Sox OF that could come up as the everyday right fielder not long after Patriots Day.
The Boston rotation will showcase a plethora of mid to back-end starters. Rick Porcello and Wade Miley are durable and will eat innings, but Clay Buchholz, Justin Masterson and Joe Kelly all seem destined to miss starts at some point. Who fills in? The bullpen should be adequate, and those who are bullish on Boston are counting on it to outscore foes.
Tampa Bay enters the season eager to erase the taste of 2014. The Rays lost their 81st game in the last week of the 2014 regular season, ending a streak of six straight seasons over over-.500 ball dating to 2008; the Yankees and Cardinals are the only two franchises who can boast longer runs of the same. Even when at 76-81, they had still outscored opponents by 12 runs, which only told a partial story about a strong run of bad luck for the Rays last year.
I won't bore you with boring phrases such as "cluster luck", "league-average sequencing" and "Pythagorean luck" which speak to how fortunate Baltimore was in pitching last year and how unlucky Tampa was. Just remember: worst lineup, best pitching.
Baltimore and Toronto are expected to finish close to each other according to most projections. The Orioles did less in this offseason than any other team in baseball, standing pat off a 96-win season. Travis Snider takes over in right field for Nick Markakis, and the O's lost 2014 home run king Nelson Cruz to Seattle. Baltimore's pitching is a smidge better than Boston, while the offense is expected to be a bit worse, but not much. The shrewd front office and manager have helped Baltimore outdo their projections for the better part of this decade.
The Jays took a big hit in their starting rotation when stud youngster Marcus Stroman was lost to a season-ending knee injury. Innings-eaters Mark Buehrle and R.A. Dickey will anchor the rotation, but some of the young arms are going to have to produce to keep Toronto competitive at the top. The batting order is perhaps unrivaled in baseball from 1 through 5, and they play in a very hitting-friendly park. There appears to be little help at the bottom of the order, however, and this tempers any extreme hope for the Jays, who haven't been to the playoffs since winning a second World Series back in the early 90s.
The Yankees are probably considered a contender in name only; it's hard to ever write off New York in April. The rotation is spearheaded by a Japanese pitcher who has a minor ligament tear in his pitching arm. CC Sabathia was subpar last year, and then missed time with a serious injury. Michael Pineda has had serious shoulder problems, and there is little behind them. The Yankees might well struggle with left-handed pitching; the opening day projected lineup has zero right-handed hitters (three switch hitters) and six lefties.
The Yankees won 84 games last year, despite a Pythag win run total suggesting they should have won 77. This makes the second season in a row that Joe Girardi found a way to win more games than he lost despite being outscored for the season, an indication of good managing. New York has veterans who have won at the highest level, and Alex Rodriguez returns as a potential key piece in the summer that he'll turn 40.
1. Tampa Bay
2. Boston
3. Baltimore
4. Toronto
5. N.Y. Yankees
In a race that's slated to be tighter than any on paper, might as well go with the longest shot on the board. It holds true in horse racing, and also for the 2015 American League East. The Rays have the lowest OVER/UNDER season wins total on the board both offshore and in Las Vegas.
The Rays were a very unlucky team both at the plate and in the field in 2014. The pitching rotation should be best in the division by a fair amount, the defense should be perhaps the best in baseball (in a pitcher's park at home) and the offense should be adequate enough to win scads of close, low-scoring games. This might not happen. Tampa might end up going 86-76 and missing the playoffs entirely while still going over their projected season wins by the linesmakers by eight or nine wins. But by and large I think the AL East is down a tick or two from last year, and will call for Tampa to win 89 games and a division crown.
Boston should contend for a wild-card and finish second in the division. The Red Sox are the mirror opposite of the Giants, having success in odd-numbered years this decade. Still, the Red Sox are counting on a lot of young bats and a rotation full of middling and back-end starters from a team that only won 71 games last season. A jump of a dozen wins or so is plausible, but any more than that might be tough.
Baltimore and Toronto to me look real close to Boston; I see very little difference. Obviously, injuries and luck will have to something to do with all of that. While I can't predict injuries, I can't ignore Buck Showalter's impact on Baltimore, either. They outdo my projection almost every season, and I would hardly be surprised if they won the division again. Therefore, I will project the Orioles in front of Toronto. The front office basically sat pat on a team that won 96 games last season. They won't be that lucky this time around, but they would still have to lose a dozen games from that pace to not make the playoffs. That is a big number.
Toronto has a strong lineup at the top, two veteran arms that will eat innings and save the pen for the back-end rotation guys. The Jays have lots of good young arms, but whether they are ready to pitch at this level is probably the key to them having a chance to play meaningful baseball in October for the first time in many of their fans' lifetime. A breakout season from a bottom-of-the-order guy would help tremendously, and catcher Russell Martin figures to improve the Jays defensively by 30 or more runs, which could be as much as four wins. Four wins in this division, this year, would mean the world.
Yankee manager Joe Girardi cobbled together 239 starts from over-age-40 players Ichiro Suzuki and Derek Jeter, and just 169 starts from the entire roster of under-30 players. This is quite likely the first time in history a team got more starts (a full half-season worth) from 40-and-over players than those under age 30. It was the second time in a row that New York had fewer runs than its opponents over a season, yet finished above .500, a testament to good managing. That's the only thing keeping this flawed bunch out of the cellar in 2015, and it can certainly happen.
Futures Recommendations: Tampa Bay to win the division
Tampa Bay season wins OVER
Yankees season wins UNDER
