Revealing the truth about the touts trying to sell you picks

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TahoeLegend

Pretty much a regular
Revealing the true record of the touts trying to sell you picks

I keep track of as many of these guys as I can each year, but I only have access to what they post publicly.

Start with what was the Cantor Sportsbook Handicapping Championship last year, and has moved to the Golden Nugget this year. This is the best opportunity to see if any of them can actually handicap. Each week two handicappers compete against each other with the winner moving on in the contest and their picks are posted for the public, carried on radio, and shown on TV in Vegas.

They have to pay to enter and are competing for $25,000 so these are the best picks they can come up with.

The results from last year are still up on the Cantor website. The result? Of 16 "professional handicappers," most of them the Vegas guys you see all over the internet giving advice, every one but one finished below .500. The winner finished above .500 by two games, lives in San Diego and does not peddle his picks as far as I know.

This year, the first week results (up on the Las Vegas Sportsline site) are even worse. Chuck Edlen and Ken Thompson (nice guys, they just aren't good handicappers) were 1-6. The other handicapper, a Vegas guy, but I don't know him, was also 1-6.

And these guys are all trying to sell picks and insisting they can make you money. I heard all of them this week trying to sell picks and boasting how they were a dozen games over .500.

Ken Thompson has posted other picks on a gambling website. He is 1-3 on those picks.

Steve Fezzik is 1-3 on his picks so far.

Marco DeAngelo is faring better, going 3-1 so far (under .500 on public picks last year.

Lee Stirling is also in the black, going 7-5 (no idea how he has done in the past).

In the many years I have spent gambling I have never seen a tout who was not scrambling for money to pay their rent, desperate to get guys to buy picks so they can keep their head above water, and who struggled to go .500.

I don't include Phil Steele in that list anymore. I don't know how his picks are doing, but he makes enough money from his magazine and media appearances that he is no longer desperate.

I'll try to update this as the season progresses and if anyone is keeping track of tout, please let me know how they do.
 
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How about Jonathan Stone and his "Stone Cold Locks?" He feels you can move on a game as if it's already been played. Or the Vegas Nightmare?
 
He should have a great shot, VK, if the others perform as poorly as they did last year. Who is it, if you can reveal the name?

I haven't looked at last year's results in a while, but if I remember correctly, not only did every picker but one finish below .500 for the season, I think there were only three guys who had even one week above .500, and no one except the winner had more than one week above .500.

Bryan Leonard, the other guy who made it to the finals with the guy from San Diego--I think his last name is Green--was only .500 for all his picks heading into the finals, where he had a 2-5.

I know Fat Jack, who has one of the worst records of any tout in the business, was 2-5 in his only week.

There are good handicappers out there, but these guys styling themselves as "professional handicappers" and hustling around Vegas sportsbooks seem to get all the publicity.

Any idea how Scott Sharp is doing on his picks, Carolina? I don't have Sirius/FX.
 
Sounds like these guys were slightly behind the curve set by the equally prestigious monkeys-throwing-shit-at-the-wall contest.
 
some of the contests are hard to win. I think our ticket in the supercontest two years ago went 60% or something like that and still missed the money. over 1k entries this year or thereabouts I think .. have to run like a god to win that. Someone is gonna go on a bullshit run and win a boatload.
 
not even doing the local ones ( greatgiveaway etc)this year with all my travel despite free entries
 
I've won several. But you may know me better as ... Teddy Covers.
 
53percent said:
Well if you make money from betting there's no reason to need to sell anything
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With limits falling and books going the UK model (restrict anybody that wins or beats the close), those people that were winning each year are not going to win that much anymore. Even if their percentage stays the same they have to make up the shortfall somehow.
 
Anybody watch Money Talks last night on CNBC? Ridiculous

[video=youtube;WRcSsF0VGxE]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WRcSsF0VGxE[/video]
 
I like that OP,and this thread.
I listen an awful lot to these guys,they all do podcasts,I never take any notice of any of their picks ,just for information and keep me upto speed in general with line moves/injuries etc.
The guys Chuck Edel by the way,but whats a consonant between friends,These guys are stealing a living.
When I started reading I was expecting to see another name in there,it is not but suffice to say hes the biggest fraud of them all........

I read an excellent post somewhere else explaining what % theyd have to actually hit (and what unit stake youd need to bet) to enable people who pay for their picks to actually make money after the initial fee is taken out.Not good reading if you are actually a tout tbh.

With regards to what Alan said about the "uk model" ,I actually spoke to VK about this even before Hills had got a foothold in NV,shithouses,but buisness is buisness I guess.
 
VK said:
Making more money is not a reason?
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Well that's the reason anyone tries to sell anything .. And good luck to those who try to sell picks .. Obviously there's plenty of people willing to pay for it .. But you could make more money by increasing your bet amounts .. But then that would take a true conviction in your system or process or whatever else you use .. Selling picks is 100% a hedge against a losing bet .. Which you could say is smart for them .. I would say anyone buying them is pretty stupid though.
 
I gamble to win money. If I think I can win more money by buying information then I will. Heck I even pay "Rivals.com" money. My friend bets big and has been doing RAS cbb the last bunch of years... doubt he feels stupid.

Is my job auditing healthcare facilities a "hedge against a losing bet" ?
 
VK said:
some of the contests are hard to win. I think our ticket in the supercontest two years ago went 60% or something like that and still missed the money. over 1k entries this year or thereabouts I think .. have to run like a god to win that. Someone is gonna go on a bullshit run and win a boatload.
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the hilton contest entries went a combined 39% in Week 1 this year. Ya'll picked the wrong year.
 
JumpOnBoard said:
the hilton contest entries went a combined 39% in Week 1 this year. Ya'll picked the wrong year.
Click to expand...

All but finished one week in ... yay fun. wish we were at 40%. What hurts is they expanded to paying 30 spots this year .. if they had done that a couple years earlier we cash.
 
Just found a record for another "professional handicapper." Matt Youmans, handicapper for Las Vegas Sportsline.

3-17-1 so far in 2013.

I give him props for one thing though. He makes his picks public and keeps them up on the website. He's not failing, then trying to convince guys to buy his picks by lying about his record.
 
I guess he's trying to capitalize on the sector of the market that believes he's due.
 
You make an excellent point, Manchester.

I listen to the podcasts of all these guys when I have time. I save time and research because they do so much of it, and I get valuable info a lot of times without doing much work.

You just have to have the discipline to ignore their picks and make your own decisions.
 
VK said:
I gamble to win money. If I think I can win more money by buying information then I will. Heck I even pay "Rivals.com" money. My friend bets big and has been doing RAS cbb the last bunch of years... doubt he feels stupid.

Is my job auditing healthcare facilities a "hedge against a losing bet" ?
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Well, there's a reason you haven't made sports betting your primary source of income.....If you're that sure of your methods, what are you waiting for? I mean a job is really a hedge against being broke. And all people will pursue jobs according to some formula of their interest + their skills/talents + their motivation + their potential to earn more + barriers to entry .. You said in another thread you have more lucrative options per dollar/hour than this, I would say we all do. I don't think anyone here is a professional, full time gambler (egos and arrogant posturing aside). So our jobs afford us the disposable income to pursue this as a way to supplement income, have fun, etc...But I couldn't think of an easier way to earn a 1.1:1 ROI than this activity here. But, as long as something else is your primary source of income, you have assessed the risk of loss to be to great to take.

That's great for your friend....but a standard -110 bet requires 52.3% to break even...how much higher does that go when you add in a "broker" fee which is basically what this is....? You have to bet a substantial amount each wager or hit at an insanely high percentage to make this work....Paying for picks is much more detrimental to the average bettor's profitability than beating the closing number by .5 that you're so adamant about. Let's say a service charges $50 for a pick. If you bet 550/500 you're really betting 550/450 or -122 which requires 55% to profit. Further, you would have to bet over $11,000 on a single wager to bring the break even back down to 52.3%.

But, forgetting all of that, in this scenario it is RAS who I would suggest is selling your friend their picks as a hedge against their bet losing (assuming they even make bets themselves).
 
TahoeLegend said:
You make an excellent point, Manchester.

I listen to the podcasts of all these guys when I have time. I save time and research because they do so much of it, and I get valuable info a lot of times without doing much work.

You just have to have the discipline to ignore their picks and make your own decisions.
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Exactly,how the fuck am I supposed to know if the EMU centre is injured.Just put up with their bile for a few mins and take the informative stuff out.
 
Good points, 53,

I can't think of many things more taxing than trying to support yourself betting sports. Sure way to ruin your health, mental and physical, plus take all the fun out of something you enjoyed when it was a hobby.

I love betting football BECAUSE it is not my job, just an enjoyable hobby.

i learned long ago if you want to take all the fun out of something you love change it from a hobby to the way you make yoru living.

As for paying for picks I have yet to see a tout who can win at a percentage that you can pay for his picks then make a profit betting them. That's why I started this thread. If there is one out there all he has to do is post his picks and show us he can do it and we will all buy his picks.

The only picks that may be worth it are the $1.00 picks on Pregame.com. I don't have any evidence they are, but at least if you only pay one dollar there is a chance.
 
To piggyback 53%, a large problem with these services ... let's say RAS is good, even though that asshole had the time to get away from breaking down the numbers and spar with me on this site last year ... but let's say RAS is good, I mean he releases a play and the lines move some, I gather, right? I assume the business plan of an "honest" tout is to do the work for his non-professionally gambling customers and give them good plays. But their customers aren't sitting around waiting to beat the opening line. And their customers don't have half-a-dozen places to get a bet down. If the line moves quite a bit in the wrong direction by the time the customer can place a bet somewhere, the purchased play is worthless, and the bet itself is very possibly a sucker bet. This is just one of a million ways touts claim a winning percentage that their customers can't hit.
 
And it's actually the most honest way they fudge their percentages. Even though it's truly not a very honest practice.
 
ManchesterUk said:
Chad Millman interviewed Ed not long ago,he said the line moved 15 seconds after release
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Man, Can you post link? I like listening to Millman, simmons and cousin sal breakdown stuff. Id really like to hear this Ed speak, it was excellent watching him get aggro in that thread tip is referring. He needs to stay chill like Big Al Mcmordie lol.
 
53percent said:
Let's say a service charges $50 for a pick. If you bet 550/500 you're really betting 550/450 or -122 which requires 55% to profit. Further, you would have to bet over $11,000 on a single wager to bring the break even back down to 52.3%.
Click to expand...

Instead of $550 to win $450, aren't you actually betting $600 to win $450 though? You're losing the $50 either way, so, you lose and you're out $600, you win and you only make $450.
 
Johnnyonthespot said:
Man, Can you post link? I like listening to Millman, simmons and cousin sal breakdown stuff. Id really like to hear this Ed speak, it was excellent watching him get aggro in that thread tip is referring. He needs to stay chill like Big Al Mcmordie lol.
Click to expand...

I can tell you guys a pretty good story about Edward from last year...still a little too soon though. In due time. :shake:
 
53percent said:
Well, there's a reason you haven't made sports betting your primary source of income.....If you're that sure of your methods, what are you waiting for? I mean a job is really a hedge against being broke. And all people will pursue jobs according to some formula of their interest + their skills/talents + their motivation + their potential to earn more + barriers to entry .. You said in another thread you have more lucrative options per dollar/hour than this, I would say we all do. I don't think anyone here is a professional, full time gambler (egos and arrogant posturing aside). So our jobs afford us the disposable income to pursue this as a way to supplement income, have fun, etc...But I couldn't think of an easier way to earn a 1.1:1 ROI than this activity here. But, as long as something else is your primary source of income, you have assessed the risk of loss to be to great to take.

That's great for your friend....but a standard -110 bet requires 52.3% to break even...how much higher does that go when you add in a "broker" fee which is basically what this is....? You have to bet a substantial amount each wager or hit at an insanely high percentage to make this work....Paying for picks is much more detrimental to the average bettor's profitability than beating the closing number by .5 that you're so adamant about. Let's say a service charges $50 for a pick. If you bet 550/500 you're really betting 550/450 or -122 which requires 55% to profit. Further, you would have to bet over $11,000 on a single wager to bring the break even back down to 52.3%.

But, forgetting all of that, in this scenario it is RAS who I would suggest is selling your friend their picks as a hedge against their bet losing (assuming they even make bets themselves).
Click to expand...

I think you are wrong about quite a few things in this post, posturing aside.
 
RAS has real bettors not chump change bettors. They charge by the season, not the pick and for a lot of their customers it is less than a unit for the plays. The customers there have made out ... of course their claims about how much they are beating the close by are inaccurate in that as you mention, a lot of their clients cannot get the released number and because they have large bettors following them it is a bit of a self-fulfilling prophecy. That is to say .. RAS releases Troy +10, big bettors tail .. money comes in on one side and books move the line down. So they beat market because they have influence over big bettors. AKA a self-fulfilling prophecy. This is one of the things I was talking about in regards to whether we are talking a true market when singular opinions can influence a big chunk of that market. Obviously you have to do a proper cost analysis of what the service charges compared to how much you bet. If you bet tiny and they are charging $50 a pick then you are in for some trouble for sure.

I think this is one of the areas where some feel services are preying on the stupid. I mean it takes an idiot to not understand the relationship of the fee to the their average bet size ( and number of bets ) .....but there are a lot of idiots out there, I suppose.
 
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Are all of these directed at me? You only quoted the one but then responded again addressing things I said but going beyond what I said and it wasn't quoted so its rather unclear...
 
just commenting in general .. I think I was responding to about three different posts. My organizational skills are as good as my typing skills and attention to detail with my punctuation.
 
Play2win said:
still too soon?
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Well it's probably too late now....Kowboy Karl hasn't been around since he "ran" the MLB contest. And just like that, poof, he was gone...

usualsuspects5.jpg
 
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