I knew Ohio people were delusional but this has to take the cake... Learn who the Brewers GM is as well...
http://www.theclevelandfan.com/article_detail.php?blgId=3410
What C.C. Should Yield Us From Milwaukee
July 5, 2008 · By Dennis Nosco
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On June 27, 2002 the Indians [/FONT]
[FONT=arial,helvetica,sans-serif]traded Bartolo Colon[/FONT][FONT=arial,helvetica,sans-serif]
in a six player deal to Montreal. The three prospects the Indians got back were probably the top three prospects in the Expos organization at that time and were rated by Baseball America as the #1, 3 and 11 prospects in an organization that had been ranked as having the 16<sup>th</sup> best prospect pool in baseball at that time. The story at the time was that the Expos knew they would be relocating and that their GM Omar Minaya was more interested in making a splash rather than making a balanced deal. It must be pointed out that Colon was NOT a free agent until after the next season, meaning the Expos did own his rights for at least a season and a half at the time the deal was made. Also note that Colon was a Type A pitcher in the Elias rankings at the time of the trade meaning he would be a Type A free agent and net the Expos two top draft picks if they kept him but didn't sign him before he signed with someone else in free agency. At the time and since then it was speculated that a trade like this would never happen again. [/FONT]
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Turn the clock forward to July 25, 2007. The Milwaukee Brewers under the direction of GM Bob Melvin, in the thick of a pennant race, sent three prospects to the San Diego Padres for [/FONT]
[FONT=arial,helvetica,sans-serif]Scott Linebrink[/FONT][FONT=arial,helvetica,sans-serif]
. Linebrink was a free agent after the 2007 season and it was pretty clear he was going to be a Type A free agent as he was [/FONT]
[FONT=arial,helvetica,sans-serif]EASILY[/FONT][FONT=arial,helvetica,sans-serif]
a Type A free agent in the 2006 rankings. Therefore, if the Brewers couldn't sign him in time, they were going to offer him arbitration as he was reasonably priced (he made $2,125,000 in 2007) and they would get two top draft picks for him (which they did, as they didn't sign him) if he signed elsewhere. At the time Linebrink was a setup man and a good one, leading the NL in holds from 2004-6, BUT HE WAS STILL JUST A SETUP MAN. [/FONT]
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The three prospects (Will Inman, Steve Garrison and Joe Thatcher), all pitchers, the Padres obtained in that deal were good ones as they ranked #6, #7 and #19 in the Padres top 30 prospect list as ranked by Baseball America. Also note that the Padres had the 12<sup>th</sup> best farm system (out of 30 teams) in baseball when those prospect rankings came out in January 2008. To add more perspective, before the 2007 season these three guys were ranked #3, #23 and #28 among the Brewers top 30 prospects in January 2007 in a prospect list that was ranked 5<sup>th</sup> in all of baseball [/FONT]
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Now, turn the clock one more time to July 5, 2008 and the Indians are talking to the Brewers and the same said GM, Bob Melvin. The Brewers are again in a pennant race and are talking to the Indians, apparently seriously, about CC Sabathia, the reigning Cy Young Award winner. Clearly Sabathia would be a Type A free agent this winter and net the Brewers two high draft choices if they couldn't sign him as they would surely offer him arbitration because Sabathia WILL get a monster long-term deal from someone. [/FONT]
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It is not known who the Brewers are offering but, given the similarities between Linebrink's situation and Sabathia's and given that Cy Young award winners have to be worth SIGNIFICANTLY more than even very good setup men and the minor fact that the Brewers would have Sabathia for 3 more weeks than they had Linebrink, one would expect that the Indians would get a load of prospects for Sabathia much better than the ones the Padres got for Linebrink meaning that the prospects the Indians get for Sabathia, in dealing with Milwaukee, should be pretty close to what they obtained for Colon. [/FONT]
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Now, in Cleveland, many fans tend to underrate our players, pooh-pooh the possibility of getting really good deals in these kinds of trades and seem to think it would be OK for us to give up the farm (pun definitely intended) to make a deadline deal for even a mediocre piece if we are in contention. Basically, it means we, as Cleveland baseball fans, have an inferiority complex. As fans, we need to get over that and expect more out of our front office. [/FONT]
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The history above, some of it recent and with the same team we are supposedly negotiating with now, tells you that we should get a great haul. THAT is the standard Mark Shapiro should be held to in this trade. Anything less than that, any acceptance by the Indians of another team's suspect players (as we did when accepting suspects Matt Lawton, Billy Traber and Alex Escobar as the centerpieces in the Robbie Alomar trade with the Mets) is unacceptable, in my opinion. [/FONT]
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WHO MIGHT BE COMING OUR WAY [/FONT]
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Now, although it has been beaten to death in the media, let's examine the Brewers who SHOULD be coming back in this trade. [/FONT]
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In January, 2008 the top five Brewers' prospects, according to Baseball America, were 1B/OF Matt LaPorta, LHP Manny Parra, SS Alcides Escobar, RHP Jeremy Jeffress and 3B Matt Gamel. For reference, at that moment, the Brewers were rated to have only the 21<sup>st</sup> best prospects among the 30 major league teams meaning, essentially, they had a significantly below average farm system. Let's look at those prospects individually: [/FONT]
[FONT=arial,helvetica,sans-serif]LaPorta[/FONT][FONT=arial,helvetica,sans-serif]
is at AA and has only been in pro ball for one year and is, by all accounts, a 1B/DH type. He had a terrible junior year in college as you can tell by his stats, leading to him returning to college for his senior year and, in his relatively small sample size of one year as a pro, has looked good. [/FONT]
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Manny Parra is one of the better starting pitchers in the Brewers' rotation. [/FONT]
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Escobar is a great-fielding SS whose hitting is still questionable as he entered the year with a .280/.317/.354 and he is still in AA. [/FONT]
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Jeffress is a 2006 first round pick who was suspended for 50 games in 2007 after testing positive for a drug of abuse (i.e., not performance-enhancing). [/FONT]
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Gamel is a pure hitter who is hitting about .388 at AA but had 53 errors in Class A last year and has 23 in 85 games this year, meaning he may not have enough defense to stay at the hot corner. [/FONT]
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Also, it should be noted that the Brewers' #1 prospect the previous year, Yovani Gallardo, is on the DL with a torn ACL. If he is in play (guys on the DL can't be traded) he is clearly the #1 guy you want to go after. [/FONT]
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The Brewers have some decent (but not great) position players besides the above guys in their system, one of them is Taylor Green, a class A third baseman who has shown only a little power in his three years as a professional and, although it is rumored the Indians are interested in him, doesn't appear to be a top prospect by any measuring stick and is certainly a significant step down from Gamel. The Brewers' system is pretty weak in pitching prospects after Parra who is now a major leaguer and Jeffress, who is still in A ball and obviously has some makeup question marks after his suspension. [/FONT]
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BOTTOM LINE [/FONT]
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If the Indians hold on to CC they will get two top draft picks in the 2008 draft if they don't re-sign him. That has to be the floor for ANY trade we make for CC: two top prospects. There is some talk that the Brewers might be including a major leaguer in the deal and one or two prospects. If Parra is not that major leaguer this could be a real problem. Looking over the Brewers major league roster I see a some decent but NOT great hitters (Hart, Hardy), some guys who could use a change of scenery but are REALLY suspect at this point (Weeks, Hall) and a couple of great hitters (Fielder and Braun) with Braun not really being considered as the long-term answer at 3B and so has becomes a defacto LFer just to get his potent bat in the lineup. I also see some question mark young starting pitchers with potential (Bush, Villaneuva) who are having really bad seasons. My fear is that we will get Weeks and/or Hall and one of the question mark pitchers in a redux of the Robbie Alomar trade along with a prospect like LaPorta who, to me, is a real question mark in the trade, also being thrown in. If that is the case we would have done really, really bad in this trade, as we did in the Alomar trade. [/FONT]
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Given what we know from last year with Linebrink and adding what CC brings to the table compared to Linebrink (including his hitting ability, which is a non-trivial factor), our haul should be one of the following: [/FONT]
- [FONT=arial,helvetica,sans-serif]Parra and Gamel [/FONT]
- [FONT=arial,helvetica,sans-serif]LaPorta, Gamel, Escobar (or Connor Gillespie, a good hitting OFer) and Jeffress (an all-prospect trade that probably won't help us much in 2009) [/FONT]
- [FONT=arial,helvetica,sans-serif]Braun and Gamel [/FONT]
- [FONT=arial,helvetica,sans-serif]Yovani Gallardo and Gamel or LaPorta (although I would obviously prefer Gamel) [/FONT]
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I am thinking we could get the first one done, I am MORE than willing to settle for #3 although I think it will hurt us in 2009 (as I don't see us then having enough starting pitching) and I am dreaming we could get the 4<sup>th</sup> one done, or maybe even one slightly better than that (Gallardo, Gamel and Gillespie) done if we throw in Casey Blake or a reliever. [/FONT] [FONT=arial,helvetica,sans-serif]
If we get less than one of those four or five options or something similar or better, we will have been hoodwinked in the deal, especially compared to the Linebrink deal last year. [/FONT]
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This, like the Colon deal, HAS to be a signature trade in Shapiro's reign here. We need to get a sweet deal here. Keep your fingers crossed.[/FONT]
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