27-27-1 (6.98 units)
Weeks 1 and 3 were winning weeks. That is all you need to know about that 2nd week. Some really bad bets and a few that just didn't get the right bounce. Now, I did end up with a few more Lions bets on Sunday (as I indicated) but never did post them it looks like. No biggie. I'm very happy with my bounceback last week. Good capping has been there 2 out of 3 weeks. I simply do not need that Fondy style card like week #2 and must really shop props better juice-wise.
A note -- I haven't posted much of my live action (quarters-halves etc) due to the numbers moving fast. I'll try to when I can if those numbers are available. Frankly, I think this year in the NFL I have 7-8 of those -- mostly unders. Mixed bag so far.
With how this year is going, I feel like getting through these first 3 weeks without being just crushed is a pretty good thing. I was talking to a couple of guys that run things locally and the amount of guys tapping out already is wild!
Some early thoughts for each game and we'll proceed from there...
I don't know what to make of this Cowboys team. I think there was some false hope in week 1 with that Browns win. Look deeper inside that box and the offense was very average. Also, the Browns are the Browns. More Rico please!
What happened in Nola last weekend? What a weird game. Yeah, we know that Saints offense would come back to earth a bit but that was pathetic -- both ways. Falcons have a nice balanced offense and a solid defense. I feel like they may go on a run soon. Cousins is starting to look more comfortable with this team. They have two good RB's (one soon to be great) and nice options outside. Good barometer game here.
The Steelers have won every game and have not scored a lot. Good defense and maybe not the best opponents just yet. A.R. seemingly is worsening each outing. He isn't the answer. Shocker, right? Pittsburgh defense should create opportunities with this guy. Big game for Indy, but they will have to play damn near perfect on offense. Pitt seems like some value here. You have to think they run the ball left and right here and kill a lot of clock.
Is this a get-well game for Houston? We know this team was a bit overhyped entering the year. They are not as bad as last week though. The Jags look brutal so far. There isn't much more to say about this one. I like Houston to win, but this is a game that could be tighter than the Texans faithful would like. Wounded dogs always worry me.
Aaron Jones returns to Lambeau with the red-hot Vikings. I'm not sure what to think of the Vikings. With Jones, they obviously have a great core of skill guys now. Darnold has been excellent so far. We've seen this in the league before -- a journeyman QB(that is what he has turned into) starts to break out a bit mid-career in a perfect situation. I hate that JJ got hurt, but perhaps a blessing all-around. I have no clue what to bet here if you read this long. Let's see how the QB situation goes for GB. Malik had his career start last week -- happy for him. I doubt they let Love play this week.
What do we make of the Bengals? The offense was so very good on Monday. The defense was brutal though. We then look back on the KC game and they played pretty well on defense. This is simply the league in a nutshell so far! I get ya a few weeks ago they had this circled as a win. Enter Andy Dalton! What a difference and frankly that should end the Bryce Young career. Sad. Good guy by all accounts. My goodness, the Bengals MUST win this game. Gut check time. Moss and Brown are both playing well at RB and Tee is back. This team should rebound.
The injury-plagued Rams head to Chicago. What a comeback last week. That was vintage Stafford right there. We've seen him lead broken down squads to improbable wins here in Detroit. We knew that whole scene last week. The Bears should be winless right now. They play ugly games and under bettors have been very happy so far. Nice yardage for Caleb last week but that is way to many pass attempts to get there, Why couldn't the Bears run last week?? The Colts run defense is not good. Another NFL mystery. With that being said, I lean Chicago here. The total is set where it should be. My first inclination was a Rams 1h tt under. I don't think the number will line up though.
The Donks head to Jersey this week -- this reminds me of one of my favorite prop bets last year -- Breece Hall breakout game in Denver. This also reminds me I am not betting his props, unless receiving anymore. He honestly is both a top fantasy RB and could also keep losing carries to Braelon as the season goes. At some point, the YPC comes into play. Allen produces much better. I have a feeling the B. Allen props will be adjusted this week a bit better. Rodgers looking much more comfortable and linemakers have decided this team is good if you look at the line. Hmmmmm.
Gut check win for the Eagles in the dome last week. Meanwhile Tampa Bay came back to earth with a shocking loss. Tampa and Detroit game skewed many, and that is what happens in this league sometimes. Eagles last left Tampa with a crushing defeat in the wildcard. They need AJ back, no doubt. I am staying far away from this game. More Bucky please!
This next game will definitely get my attention this week -- Redskins visit Arizona. We saw the JD5 breakout game on Monday night. That was fun to watch. Now, what isn't fun to watch? The Skins defense. Brutal. Tampa and Cincy just scored at will. This game, with an active Kyler, sets up for overs in many different forms. Posted plays coming on this one!
The Niners are absolutely reeling. They have been eliminated from Super Bowl contention via a super secret system I have implemented. They need a win here, and here come the Patriots! Jaccoby is still the QB but the Patriots plan on finishing the season with 'The Drake'. That has to be a comforting feeling for Brissett. Anyways, despite injuries the Niners should get back on track here and will be involved in a ML parlay of some sort.
The Brownies head to Vegas for what shapes up to be a game no one wants to watch. Brutal! No clue, no bets and don't care. These teams suck.
The champs head to L.A to face the Chargers without Derwin, who has been suspended. The 2-0 start was a bit smoke and mirrors but that is a JH type team. He'll win a few extra they shouldn't this year. We are probably 2 years away from full contention out there. The posted total here makes sense. This should be a pretty ugly affair. Pretty stout line though, that means the Chiefs are over a 2 TD favorite at home.
The Bills and Ravens on SNF is EXACTLY what we need to cap off the day. The Ravens are going with the hockey method and playing 3 'periods'. The 4th is not included I guess these past few weeks. Buffalo is riding high and having fun. The offense is so much fun, and they way they started these last two games only helps their defense. This should be a great game. Buffalo can become the AFC favorite right now, or Baltimore can turn this back into a 3-headed race (Sorry Jets fans, not just yet...)
Another MNF double-dip. The game in Miami also was a DH affair last year. Remember those last 5 mins? The Dolphins haven't been the same since -- that cost them HF in the playoffs and they have spiraled ever since. This is a matchup that not many will care about after the 1st quarter...
Because MNF is BACK in Detroit! Not too many better advantages right now in the league than a Ford Field Primetime affair. Detroit rebounded last week and have a lot of revenge for these Seahawks. Seattle has been their nemesis lately, all in Detroit. Big, big game for the Lions...
We'll get into this game more in the next two days....
Few notes...
Detroit is changing. The 2h performance was reminiscent of KC. They actually stayed on the ground (maybe a bit too much) and ran the clock. Hence, all unders so far. They are helping the defense via the offense. The duo had 39 for 188 last week. That wins a lot of games!
Goff is still a bit off, but last week was better. I do look for them to get Laporta going a bit. He's off to a slower start. Jamo looks good though and the Sun God is coming around as well since the week 1 off performance and the injury.
I am going to be 100% honest with you -- this line is OFF a bit. I have this valued at around 5-6 points.
Seattle is 3-0 but that is the easiest schedule in the league so far. They are a solid team, for sure, but Detroit is a PK or +1 at worst in Seattle.
More to come on this one -- and yes, RENO will be in attendance!
Detroit ML -190 3 units
better safe than sorry, playing the ML. I'll add on a flat 3 as well.
likely adding to 1-2 ml parlays
Weeks 1 and 3 were winning weeks. That is all you need to know about that 2nd week. Some really bad bets and a few that just didn't get the right bounce. Now, I did end up with a few more Lions bets on Sunday (as I indicated) but never did post them it looks like. No biggie. I'm very happy with my bounceback last week. Good capping has been there 2 out of 3 weeks. I simply do not need that Fondy style card like week #2 and must really shop props better juice-wise.
A note -- I haven't posted much of my live action (quarters-halves etc) due to the numbers moving fast. I'll try to when I can if those numbers are available. Frankly, I think this year in the NFL I have 7-8 of those -- mostly unders. Mixed bag so far.
With how this year is going, I feel like getting through these first 3 weeks without being just crushed is a pretty good thing. I was talking to a couple of guys that run things locally and the amount of guys tapping out already is wild!
Some early thoughts for each game and we'll proceed from there...
I don't know what to make of this Cowboys team. I think there was some false hope in week 1 with that Browns win. Look deeper inside that box and the offense was very average. Also, the Browns are the Browns. More Rico please!
What happened in Nola last weekend? What a weird game. Yeah, we know that Saints offense would come back to earth a bit but that was pathetic -- both ways. Falcons have a nice balanced offense and a solid defense. I feel like they may go on a run soon. Cousins is starting to look more comfortable with this team. They have two good RB's (one soon to be great) and nice options outside. Good barometer game here.
The Steelers have won every game and have not scored a lot. Good defense and maybe not the best opponents just yet. A.R. seemingly is worsening each outing. He isn't the answer. Shocker, right? Pittsburgh defense should create opportunities with this guy. Big game for Indy, but they will have to play damn near perfect on offense. Pitt seems like some value here. You have to think they run the ball left and right here and kill a lot of clock.
Is this a get-well game for Houston? We know this team was a bit overhyped entering the year. They are not as bad as last week though. The Jags look brutal so far. There isn't much more to say about this one. I like Houston to win, but this is a game that could be tighter than the Texans faithful would like. Wounded dogs always worry me.
Aaron Jones returns to Lambeau with the red-hot Vikings. I'm not sure what to think of the Vikings. With Jones, they obviously have a great core of skill guys now. Darnold has been excellent so far. We've seen this in the league before -- a journeyman QB(that is what he has turned into) starts to break out a bit mid-career in a perfect situation. I hate that JJ got hurt, but perhaps a blessing all-around. I have no clue what to bet here if you read this long. Let's see how the QB situation goes for GB. Malik had his career start last week -- happy for him. I doubt they let Love play this week.
What do we make of the Bengals? The offense was so very good on Monday. The defense was brutal though. We then look back on the KC game and they played pretty well on defense. This is simply the league in a nutshell so far! I get ya a few weeks ago they had this circled as a win. Enter Andy Dalton! What a difference and frankly that should end the Bryce Young career. Sad. Good guy by all accounts. My goodness, the Bengals MUST win this game. Gut check time. Moss and Brown are both playing well at RB and Tee is back. This team should rebound.
The injury-plagued Rams head to Chicago. What a comeback last week. That was vintage Stafford right there. We've seen him lead broken down squads to improbable wins here in Detroit. We knew that whole scene last week. The Bears should be winless right now. They play ugly games and under bettors have been very happy so far. Nice yardage for Caleb last week but that is way to many pass attempts to get there, Why couldn't the Bears run last week?? The Colts run defense is not good. Another NFL mystery. With that being said, I lean Chicago here. The total is set where it should be. My first inclination was a Rams 1h tt under. I don't think the number will line up though.
The Donks head to Jersey this week -- this reminds me of one of my favorite prop bets last year -- Breece Hall breakout game in Denver. This also reminds me I am not betting his props, unless receiving anymore. He honestly is both a top fantasy RB and could also keep losing carries to Braelon as the season goes. At some point, the YPC comes into play. Allen produces much better. I have a feeling the B. Allen props will be adjusted this week a bit better. Rodgers looking much more comfortable and linemakers have decided this team is good if you look at the line. Hmmmmm.
Gut check win for the Eagles in the dome last week. Meanwhile Tampa Bay came back to earth with a shocking loss. Tampa and Detroit game skewed many, and that is what happens in this league sometimes. Eagles last left Tampa with a crushing defeat in the wildcard. They need AJ back, no doubt. I am staying far away from this game. More Bucky please!
This next game will definitely get my attention this week -- Redskins visit Arizona. We saw the JD5 breakout game on Monday night. That was fun to watch. Now, what isn't fun to watch? The Skins defense. Brutal. Tampa and Cincy just scored at will. This game, with an active Kyler, sets up for overs in many different forms. Posted plays coming on this one!
The Niners are absolutely reeling. They have been eliminated from Super Bowl contention via a super secret system I have implemented. They need a win here, and here come the Patriots! Jaccoby is still the QB but the Patriots plan on finishing the season with 'The Drake'. That has to be a comforting feeling for Brissett. Anyways, despite injuries the Niners should get back on track here and will be involved in a ML parlay of some sort.
The Brownies head to Vegas for what shapes up to be a game no one wants to watch. Brutal! No clue, no bets and don't care. These teams suck.
The champs head to L.A to face the Chargers without Derwin, who has been suspended. The 2-0 start was a bit smoke and mirrors but that is a JH type team. He'll win a few extra they shouldn't this year. We are probably 2 years away from full contention out there. The posted total here makes sense. This should be a pretty ugly affair. Pretty stout line though, that means the Chiefs are over a 2 TD favorite at home.
The Bills and Ravens on SNF is EXACTLY what we need to cap off the day. The Ravens are going with the hockey method and playing 3 'periods'. The 4th is not included I guess these past few weeks. Buffalo is riding high and having fun. The offense is so much fun, and they way they started these last two games only helps their defense. This should be a great game. Buffalo can become the AFC favorite right now, or Baltimore can turn this back into a 3-headed race (Sorry Jets fans, not just yet...)
Another MNF double-dip. The game in Miami also was a DH affair last year. Remember those last 5 mins? The Dolphins haven't been the same since -- that cost them HF in the playoffs and they have spiraled ever since. This is a matchup that not many will care about after the 1st quarter...
Because MNF is BACK in Detroit! Not too many better advantages right now in the league than a Ford Field Primetime affair. Detroit rebounded last week and have a lot of revenge for these Seahawks. Seattle has been their nemesis lately, all in Detroit. Big, big game for the Lions...
We'll get into this game more in the next two days....
Few notes...
Detroit is changing. The 2h performance was reminiscent of KC. They actually stayed on the ground (maybe a bit too much) and ran the clock. Hence, all unders so far. They are helping the defense via the offense. The duo had 39 for 188 last week. That wins a lot of games!
Goff is still a bit off, but last week was better. I do look for them to get Laporta going a bit. He's off to a slower start. Jamo looks good though and the Sun God is coming around as well since the week 1 off performance and the injury.
I am going to be 100% honest with you -- this line is OFF a bit. I have this valued at around 5-6 points.
Seattle is 3-0 but that is the easiest schedule in the league so far. They are a solid team, for sure, but Detroit is a PK or +1 at worst in Seattle.
More to come on this one -- and yes, RENO will be in attendance!
Detroit ML -190 3 units
better safe than sorry, playing the ML. I'll add on a flat 3 as well.
likely adding to 1-2 ml parlays
. Semcon or nothing
