2021 MLB Win Totals: Best Bets to Make Right Now
Tampa Bay Rays
Over/Under 85.5 Wins (at BetOnline)
Regression In Starting Pitching
Last year, Tampa Bay made a World Series run that was surprising given the quantity of lower-profile players on its roster.
I think that the Rays will regress especially since some of their better and more important players have left the team
One such player was starting pitcher Blake Snell. The former AL Cy Young Award winner achieved a 3.24 ERA last season. He is now in San Diego.
Fellow starter Charlie Morton played a significant role in the last postseason, giving up one earned run in 12.2 innings against postseason AL opponents. He is in Atlanta.
Those are two guys who are annually capable of keeping their ERA under 3.00,
Michael Wacha is one replacement. He’s becoming a hot potato, having since 2019 been bounced around from the Cardinals to the Mets and now to the Rays.
Chris Archer, who is still often overrated because of his great performance two centuries ago (in 2015), has failed to keep his ERA under 4.00 in four consecutive seasons.
With Wacha and Archer supplanting Snell and Morton, the Rays suffer a significant regression in their starting pitching.
Competition
Note for your Sports Betting that pitching was absolutely responsible for Tampa Bay’s surprising run last season.
With Snell and Morton gone, the Rays needed to acquire some meaningful hitters in order to compensate for their regression in pitching. But they didn’t do that.
Their lineup remains heavily dependent on Randy Arozarena, who is going to be a focal point for opposing scouting reports now that he has become a known commodity.
It remains up in the air whether he can build off of his breakout season where he injected tremendous power into an otherwise not super powerful Ray lineup.
This overall decrease in team quality will be underscored by the improved competition in its division.
With exception to Baltimore, Tampa Bay’s AL East opponents look significantly more powerful.
The Yankees will be the Yankees. The Red Sox were not as bad as their record suggests. They were clearly demoralized by the fact that they were a typical playoff team who wasn’t going to sniff the playoffs.
Boston still has top-quality hitters like J.D. Martinez and Xander Bogaerts to go along with at least a few guys capable of holding up the rotation until star Chris Sale returns.
Toronto is a young team on the rise that acquired talented hitters like former Astro George Springer. With important veterans returning to the rotation, Toronto, too, can present more of a challenge.
AL East opponents will be the Rays’ most frequent opponents. So a stronger AL East supports an investment in the “under” for Tampa Bay’s win total.
Best Bet: Under 85.5 Wins at -115 with BetOnline
Kansas City Royals
Over/Under 72.5 Wins (at BetOnline)
Strong Lineup
This lineup looks way too good for a team listed at 72.5 wins.
One key here is contact hitter Whit Merrifield. After a bit of a down year in last year’s unusual season, there’s no reason to not expect him to return to form. He hit over .300 in 2018 and 2019.
Adalberto Mondesi is an excellent baserunner, as evident by the number of steals that he accrues.
Carlos Santana effectively gets on base as he draws a lot of walks. A change of scenery — he had a down season in Cleveland last year — will allow him to rediscover his usual power.
Even if Salvador Perez regresses after his breakout year last year — he hit .333 — it’s reasonable to expect some middle ground between him and Santana in the middle of the lineup.
Between Mondesi advancing the bases while getting on base at a decent clip — he has a .251 career BA — and with Merrifield being a consistent force, the top of Kansas City’s lineup can be the kind of respectable that you expect out of a .500 team in a superior division.
Plus, there’s still Jorge Soler to worry about with the power that he brings into the Royal lineup. He hit 48 home runs in 2019 and is lately looking like the same man capable of that same slugging prowess.
Hunter Dozier could be a steal in the bottom of the lineup if he approaches anything like his 2019 form.
Pitching
Brad Keller remains the team’s ace. Mike Minor, based on deeper metrics, really wasn’t so much worse than he was in his excellent 2019 season. So we should see him approach that 3.59 ERA figure.
Youth in the form especially of Brady Singer bodes encouragement. Singer’s strong stuff and improved ability to avoid the long ball explains his late-season surge. He is developing well.
The same kind of upside characterizes other young elements of the Royal rotation which could be bolstered by some higher-level prospects.
KC’s bullpen is supported by returners, some of whom locked down hitters with ERAs well under 2.00, who will close out games in the last few innings.
This pitching depth will secure Kansas City’s spot ahead of weak teams like Detroit whose continued struggles will help give the Royals a high number of victories from AL Central competition.
Best Bet: Over 72.5 Wins at -130 with BetOnline
Tampa Bay Rays
Over/Under 85.5 Wins (at BetOnline)
Regression In Starting Pitching
Last year, Tampa Bay made a World Series run that was surprising given the quantity of lower-profile players on its roster.
I think that the Rays will regress especially since some of their better and more important players have left the team
One such player was starting pitcher Blake Snell. The former AL Cy Young Award winner achieved a 3.24 ERA last season. He is now in San Diego.
Fellow starter Charlie Morton played a significant role in the last postseason, giving up one earned run in 12.2 innings against postseason AL opponents. He is in Atlanta.
Those are two guys who are annually capable of keeping their ERA under 3.00,
Michael Wacha is one replacement. He’s becoming a hot potato, having since 2019 been bounced around from the Cardinals to the Mets and now to the Rays.
Chris Archer, who is still often overrated because of his great performance two centuries ago (in 2015), has failed to keep his ERA under 4.00 in four consecutive seasons.
With Wacha and Archer supplanting Snell and Morton, the Rays suffer a significant regression in their starting pitching.
Competition
Note for your Sports Betting that pitching was absolutely responsible for Tampa Bay’s surprising run last season.
With Snell and Morton gone, the Rays needed to acquire some meaningful hitters in order to compensate for their regression in pitching. But they didn’t do that.
Their lineup remains heavily dependent on Randy Arozarena, who is going to be a focal point for opposing scouting reports now that he has become a known commodity.
It remains up in the air whether he can build off of his breakout season where he injected tremendous power into an otherwise not super powerful Ray lineup.
This overall decrease in team quality will be underscored by the improved competition in its division.
With exception to Baltimore, Tampa Bay’s AL East opponents look significantly more powerful.
The Yankees will be the Yankees. The Red Sox were not as bad as their record suggests. They were clearly demoralized by the fact that they were a typical playoff team who wasn’t going to sniff the playoffs.
Boston still has top-quality hitters like J.D. Martinez and Xander Bogaerts to go along with at least a few guys capable of holding up the rotation until star Chris Sale returns.
Toronto is a young team on the rise that acquired talented hitters like former Astro George Springer. With important veterans returning to the rotation, Toronto, too, can present more of a challenge.
AL East opponents will be the Rays’ most frequent opponents. So a stronger AL East supports an investment in the “under” for Tampa Bay’s win total.
Best Bet: Under 85.5 Wins at -115 with BetOnline
Kansas City Royals
Over/Under 72.5 Wins (at BetOnline)
Strong Lineup
This lineup looks way too good for a team listed at 72.5 wins.
One key here is contact hitter Whit Merrifield. After a bit of a down year in last year’s unusual season, there’s no reason to not expect him to return to form. He hit over .300 in 2018 and 2019.
Adalberto Mondesi is an excellent baserunner, as evident by the number of steals that he accrues.
Carlos Santana effectively gets on base as he draws a lot of walks. A change of scenery — he had a down season in Cleveland last year — will allow him to rediscover his usual power.
Even if Salvador Perez regresses after his breakout year last year — he hit .333 — it’s reasonable to expect some middle ground between him and Santana in the middle of the lineup.
Between Mondesi advancing the bases while getting on base at a decent clip — he has a .251 career BA — and with Merrifield being a consistent force, the top of Kansas City’s lineup can be the kind of respectable that you expect out of a .500 team in a superior division.
Plus, there’s still Jorge Soler to worry about with the power that he brings into the Royal lineup. He hit 48 home runs in 2019 and is lately looking like the same man capable of that same slugging prowess.
Hunter Dozier could be a steal in the bottom of the lineup if he approaches anything like his 2019 form.
Pitching
Brad Keller remains the team’s ace. Mike Minor, based on deeper metrics, really wasn’t so much worse than he was in his excellent 2019 season. So we should see him approach that 3.59 ERA figure.
Youth in the form especially of Brady Singer bodes encouragement. Singer’s strong stuff and improved ability to avoid the long ball explains his late-season surge. He is developing well.
The same kind of upside characterizes other young elements of the Royal rotation which could be bolstered by some higher-level prospects.
KC’s bullpen is supported by returners, some of whom locked down hitters with ERAs well under 2.00, who will close out games in the last few innings.
This pitching depth will secure Kansas City’s spot ahead of weak teams like Detroit whose continued struggles will help give the Royals a high number of victories from AL Central competition.
Best Bet: Over 72.5 Wins at -130 with BetOnline
