Regular Season 1-Goal Games - Post Season Meaning: 06-07 Playoffs

[BetCrimes1984]

I remember before the 03-04 playoffs started, someone posted an article by this guy about his take on what regular season stats to pay attention to when trying to anticipate post season success stories, and highest on his list was how teams performed in 1-goal-margin games.
I subsequently did a thread based on his assertions for that season, with Tampa & Calgary featuring highly in those tables, and what followed we all know. I repeated the dose last season and Carolina & Edmonton, the eventual finalists, again each featured highly in 1 of the 2 relevant categories for these stats.

Note: I have treated Shoot-out wins as ties, and hence they do not feature as part of these records since it, as a feature, was implimented by the league.

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Before presenting this season's stats, first a look back at the last 4 regular seasons....

Figures highlighted in red encompass the 4 top teams in winning percentage for 1-goal results from the reg. season. Teams highlighted in red played out the Conference Finals, with the bolded team the winner of those CFs.

01-02

[COLOR=#ff000]Detroit[/COLOR] ........... 20-10 ..... [COLOR=#ff000]66.6%[/COLOR]
Chicago .......... 20-10 ..... [COLOR=#ff000]66.6%[/COLOR]
Los Angeles ..... 17-16 ..... 51.5%
[COLOR=#ff000]Colorado[/COLOR] ......... 16-8 ....... [COLOR=#ff000]66.6%[/COLOR]
S. Louis .......... 15-15 ..... 50.0%
Phoenix .......... 13-11 ..... [COLOR=#ff000]54.1%[/COLOR]
San Jose ........ 11-10 ..... 52.3%
Vancouver ...... 11-15 ..... 42.3%

Detroit beat Colorado in the Western Conference Finals.

New York ......... 20-17 ..... [COLOR=#ff000]54.0%[/COLOR]
Boston ............ 20-19 ..... 51.2%
New Jersey ...... 19-15 ..... [COLOR=#ff000]55.8%[/COLOR]
[COLOR=#ff000]Toronto[/COLOR] .......... 18-12 ..... [COLOR=#ff000]60.0%[/COLOR]
[COLOR=#ff000]Carolina[/COLOR] ........ 16-15 ..... [COLOR=#ff000]51.6%[/COLOR]
Philadelphia ..... 13-13 ..... 50.0%
Montreal ......... 12-12 ..... 50.0%
Ottawa ........... 12-15 ..... 44.4%

Carolina had to beat New Jersey and Toronto (the 2 top % winners) on the way to making the Stanley Cup Finals.


02-03

[COLOR=#ff000]Anaheim[/COLOR] ....... 24-15 ...... [COLOR=#ff000]61.5%[/COLOR]
[COLOR=#ff000]Minnesota[/COLOR] ...... 21-16 ...... 56.7%
Edmonton ...... 19-18 ...... 51.3%
Detroit .......... 18-9 ........ [COLOR=#ff000]66.6%[/COLOR]
S. Louis ......... 15-9 ........ [COLOR=#ff000]62.5%[/COLOR]
Vancouver ..... 15-10 ...... [COLOR=#ff000]60.0%[/COLOR]
Colorado ........ 14-15 ...... 48.2%
Dallas ............ 10-8 ....... 55.5%

Anaheim had to beat Detroit (the top % winner) and Minnesota (who beat Vancouver, who in turn beat S. Louis) on the way to making the Stanley Cup Finals.

[COLOR=#ff000]New Jersey[/COLOR] .... 24-15 ..... [COLOR=#ff000]61.5%[/COLOR]
Toronto .......... 22-14 ..... [COLOR=#ff000]61.1%[/COLOR]
Washington ..... 20-15 ..... 57.1%
Philadelphia ..... 18-9 ....... [COLOR=#ff000]66.6%[/COLOR]
Boston ........... 16-10 ...... [COLOR=#ff000]61.5%[/COLOR]
[COLOR=#ff000]Ottawa[/COLOR] .......... 16-12 ...... 57.1%
New York ........ 11-10 ..... 52.3%
Tampa Bay ...... 11-14 ..... 44.0%

New Jersey had to beat Boston and Ottawa (who beat Philadelphia, who in turn beat Toronto) on the way to making the Stanley Cup Finals.


03-04

S. Louis ........ 23-11 ..... [COLOR=#ff000]67.6%[/COLOR]
[COLOR=#ff000]Calgary[/COLOR] ....... 19-13 ..... 59.3%
[COLOR=#ff000]San Jose[/COLOR] ...... 19-13 ..... 59.3%
Vancouver .... 19-17 ..... 52.7%
Nashville ...... 18-11 ...... [COLOR=#ff000]62.0%[/COLOR]
Detroit ......... 17-8 ....... [COLOR=#ff000]68.0%[/COLOR]
Dallas .......... 15-9 ....... [COLOR=#ff000]62.5%[/COLOR]
Colorado ...... 14-15 ...... 48.2%

Calgary had to beat Detroit (the top % winner, who beat Nashville) and San Jose (who beat S.Louis) on the way to making the Stanley Cup Finals.

Montreal .......... 19-14 ..... [COLOR=#ff000]57.5%[/COLOR]
[COLOR=#ff000]Tampa Bay[/COLOR] ..... 18-14 ..... [COLOR=#ff000]56.2%[/COLOR]
New Jersey ...... 17-12 ..... [COLOR=#ff000]58.6%[/COLOR]
Toronto ........... 15-10 ..... [COLOR=#ff000]60.0%[/COLOR]
Boston ............ 14-32 ..... 30.4%
[COLOR=#ff000]Philadelphia[/COLOR] ...... 12-12 ..... 50.0%
Ottawa ............. 9-17 ...... 34.6%
New York .......... 8-16 ...... 33.3%

Tampa had to beat Montreal (the top 1 goal game winner) and Philadelphia (who beat Toronto and New Jersey) on the way to making the Stanley Cup Finals.


05-06

Calgary ........ 22-14 ..... [COLOR=#ff000]61.1%[/COLOR]
San Jose ...... 20-15 ..... [COLOR=#ff000]57.1%[/COLOR]
Nashville ...... 18-11 ..... [COLOR=#ff000]62.0%[/COLOR]
Detroit ........ 16-11 ..... [COLOR=#ff000]59.2%[/COLOR]
Colorado ...... 16-15 ..... 51.6%
Edmonton ... 15-13 ..... 53.5%
Dallas .......... 15-14 ..... 51.7%
Anaheim ....... 13-15 ..... 46.4%

Edmonton had to beat Detroit & San Jose on the way to the Stanley Cup Finals, while an injury to Nashville's 1st choice goalie undermined their topping these 1-goal standings.

Montreal ......... 21-14 ..... 60.0%
Philadelphia ..... 20-10 ..... [COLOR=#ff000]66.6%[/COLOR]
[COLOR=#ff000]Carolina[/COLOR] ........ 20-11 ..... [COLOR=#ff000]64.5%[/COLOR]
[COLOR=#ff000]Buffalo[/COLOR] ........... 18-10 ..... [COLOR=#ff000]64.2%[/COLOR]
Tampa Bay ..... 17-8 ....... [COLOR=#ff000]68.0%[/COLOR]
New Jersey ..... 15-13 ..... 53.5%
New York ........ 9-22 ...... 29.0%
Ottawa ........... 8-9 ....... 47.0%

Carolina had to beat Montreal & Buffalo on the way to making the Stanley Cup Finals.


Every Stanley Cup Final winner from the last 4 seasons has been amongst the top 4 playoff teams within their conference for 1-goal game winning percentages, and has totaled at least 18 such wins, from the regular season.

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As for the finals themselves, if whats then looked at is how the Finalists performed in 1 goal games against all other (eventual) playoff teams during the regular season, this is what is found....


01-02
[COLOR=#ff000]Detroit[/COLOR] .......... 10-5 ..... [COLOR=#ff000]66.6%[/COLOR]
Carolina .......... 7-13 ..... 35.0%

02-03
[COLOR=#ff000]New Jersey[/COLOR] ... 10-9 ..... [COLOR=#ff000]52.6%[/COLOR]
Anaheim ......... 7-11 ..... 38.8%

03-04
[COLOR=#ff000]Tampa Bay[/COLOR] .... 7-7 ....... [COLOR=#ff000]50.0%[/COLOR]
Calgary ........... 6-9 ...... 40.0%

05-06
Carolina ........ 7-6 ...... 53.8%
Edmonton ....... 9-5 ...... [COLOR=#ff000]64.2%[/COLOR]


The only team not to win the Stanley Cup with a better reg. season record in 1-goal games vs all other eventual playoff teams, Edmonton, both (1) suffered a Finals ending injury to their 1st choice goalie in a tied 3rd period of Game 1 of the Finals (the guy who helped generate those previous stats), and (2) did not finish within the top 4 playoff teams within their conference for 1-goal game winning percentages (Carolina did).
Even so, it can be observed that no Stanley Cup winner (1) has had less than 7 such reg. season wins over all other eventual playoff teams, and (2) has not had a losing record for such games.


With the recent past now covered, onto this season's stats...

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06-07 1-Goal Game results


Western Conference - vs All Teams

Vancouver ...... 25-14 ...... 64.1%
Dallas ............ 19-10 ...... [COLOR=#ff000]65.5%[/COLOR]
Anaheim ......... 19-14 ...... 57.5%
Detroit ........... 16-10 ...... 61.5[COLOR=#ff000]%[/COLOR]
Nashville ........ 15-10 ...... 60.0%
Minnesota ...... 14-12 ...... 53.8%
Calgary .......... 12-17 ...... 41.3%
San Jose ........ 11-11 ...... 50.0%


Eastern Conference - vs All Teams

New Jersey ...... 22-8 ....... 73.3%
Pittsburgh ....... 16-13 ...... [COLOR=#ff000]55.1%[/COLOR]
Buffalo ............ 15-12 ...... 55.5%
Tampa Bay ...... 14-13 ...... 51.8[COLOR=#ff000]%[/COLOR]
Atlanta ........... 14-16 ...... 46.6%
NY Rangers ...... 11-19 ...... 36.6%
Ottawa ............ 8-16 ....... 33.3%
NY Islanders ...... 6-14 ...... 30.0%


Relating this season's overall figures to the observations derived from recent SC winners as related to such figures -

All recent Stanley Cup winners have been amongst the top 4 Conf. percentage figures and have totaled at least 18 such wins
Vancouver
Dallas
New Jersey



Western Conference - vs Playoff Teams

Vancouver ...... 12-9 ..... 57.1%
Detroit ........... 11-6 ..... 64.7[COLOR=#ff000]%[/COLOR]
Anaheim .......... 9-10 .... 47.3%
Calgary ........... 7-8 ...... 46.6%
Dallas ............. 6-4 ...... [COLOR=#ff000]60.0%[/COLOR]
San Jose ......... 6-7 ...... 46.1%
Nashville ......... 5-5 ...... 50.0%
Minnesota ....... 4-7 ...... 36.3%


Eastern Conference - vs Playoff Teams

New Jersey ....... 12-5 ...... 70.5%
Tampa Bay ........ 11-5 ...... 68.7[COLOR=#ff000]%[/COLOR]
Pittsburgh .......... 9-9 ....... 50.0%
Atlanta .............. 8-7 ....... 53.3[COLOR=#ff000]%[/COLOR]
Buffalo .............. 7-5 ....... 58.3%
NY Rangers ........ 6-15 ..... 28.5%
Ottawa ............. 4-9 ....... 30.7%
NY Islanders ...... 2-11 ...... 15.3%


Relating this season's overall figures to the observations derived from recent SC winners as related to such figures -

All recent Stanley Cup winners have had no less than 7 such wins and have not had a losing record
Vancouver
Detroit
New Jersey
Tampa Bay
Pittsburgh
Atlanta
Buffalo


The only 2 teams to cover both lists:
Vancouver
New Jersey
Welcome 06-07's Stanley Cup finalists:cheers: (

if only it was so easy)

 

[Joe Public]

Look at those gutty, gritty Penguins.

Great thread, Bet.

 

[BetCrimes1984]

Thanks, Joe.


I should make a note of those teams who fit into (any) 3 of the 4 "qualifying" categories

Buffalo .......... Doesnt have 18(+) reg season 1 goal wins
Pittsburgh ..... Doesnt have 18(+) reg season 1 goal wins
Tampa Bay .... Doesnt have 18(+) reg season 1 goal wins
Dallas ........... Doesnt have 7(+) 1 goal wins vs other playoff teams
Detroit ......... Doesnt have 18(+) reg season 1 goal wins

It stands to reason that after Vancouver & New Jersey, it would be odds on the SC winner comes from this group.


For those out there who like Calgary & Minny, the signs are not good.

 

[Yanks27Sox9]

great read, BC. i love this kinda stuff.

 

[BetCrimes1984]

no probs, Yanks. Proved rather helpful last season (although my belief in Edmonton wouldnt have been tempered even if they hadnt featured significantly in these stats. The fact is they were playing so well they had to).

 

[Joe Public]

I would think that the only other thing that might throw a wrench into this is how teams are playing lately.

Basically the hot goalie thing. That being that they can step up and steal games or even series, and so that might dampen this a bit.

But overall, I think if you sort of stick to this you'll probably be pretty good, especially if you contrast it with the earlier posted stats about what teams' records would be without the shootout since that will no longer apply going forward.

 

[BetCrimes1984]

I think the thing about teams stealing a series is, I'm not about to say what's above nullifies that reality, but what it does show is of the 8 previous finalists it covers, only 1 - Carolina in 01-02 - *came from nowhere* relative to these stats (hitting only 1 of the 4 categories) to make the finals, and then they were well beaten (although they did put up a decent fight) by a side who fitted comfortably within all the categories of note mentioned.

Thats a long winded way of saying, steal 1 series sure, but if you're outside these significant categories, your chances of stealing more than 1 or maybe even 2 series, is pushing a lot of shit uphill.

 

[B.A.R.]

Sexy thread BC

 

[BetCrimes1984]

Just thought it appropriate to reflect on the teams who've made the Conference finals through the lense of the 1-goal game stats.

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Anaheim

Has gone 6-1 in 1-goal-games these playoffs so far (2-1 in OT games).

While the Ducks didnt feature in the list of teams hitting at least 3 of the 4 "categories" related to recent Stanley Cup winners, they did (1) have the 2nd= most 1-goal wins in the reg. season out of all the teams in the NHL, and (2) had a reg season winning percentage good enough for 2nd place in the Eastern Conf (just not quite good enough to break the top 4 in the west, otherwise they would have made that list of teams). As far as 1-goal games in the reg season against other playoff teams go, they were only 1 reversed result off having a 50%+ record (the mark all recent SC winners have managed, at least).

Irrespective of their just falling short in these various ways, their post season efforts for 1-goal results clearly have them well ahead of any other team to this point. Their adjusted figures now read

- in all 1-goal games this season, now - 25-15 ......... 62.5%
- in 1-goal games vs playoff teams, now - 15-11 ...... 57.6%



Detroit

Has gone 3-3 in 1-goal-games these playoffs so far (2-0 in OT games).

Detroit featured amongst that small group of teams hitting at least 3 of the 4 "categories" related to recent Stanley Cup winners. Bettered all round only by Vancouver in the West, their post season efforts in 1-goal games havent mirrored those reg. season stats as strongly (in fact, they're doing poorly in said games that dont go into OT).

- in all 1-goal games this season, now - 19-13 ....... 59.3%
- in 1-goal games vs playoff teams, now - 14-9 ...... 60.8%


Interestingly, if you add up the percentage figures for each category and divide by 2, both the Wings and Ducks produce the number 60.05%. Overall they are neck and neck, but needless to say the Ducks have been much more clinical for post season specific games. Detroit losing Schneider would seem to logically feel his absence more the longer they are without him, making my choice the Ducks.

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Buffalo

Has gone 5-3 in 1-goal-games these playoffs so far (1-1 in OT games).

Buffalo featured amongst that small group of teams hitting at least 3 of the 4 "categories" related to recent Stanley Cup winners. Their post season results have been pretty much in keeping with their regular season tallies.

- in all 1-goal games this season, now - 20-15 ....... 57.1%
- in 1-goal games vs playoff teams, now - 12-8 ...... 60.0%



Ottawa


Has gone 4-2 in 1-goal-games these playoffs so far (0-1 in OT games).

Ottawa came nowhere near featuring amongst the best performing teams for the listed categories of note. Horrible regular season figures against all teams, and against eventual playoff teams, in 1-goal games which - with the exception of the 02-03 reg season - was simply in keeping with where they'd featured in all recent results tables for teams making the playoffs. Naturally, their present post season performances in 1-goal games have been somewhat suprising in this light. It must be noted they are the only conference finalist without a win in overtime.

- in all 1-goal games this season, now - 12-18 ....... 40.0%
- in 1-goal games vs playoff teams, now - 8-11 ...... 42.1%


Comparing Buffalo & Ottawa's regular season figures is comparing chalk & cheese. Results purely from this post season provide a closer picture. What is interesting is that Ottawa, along with the Rangers and Islanders, all made up the bottom 3 Eastern teams for these stats, and Buffalo has gotten to (now) meet each in turn (thou to be fair to the post-trade Rangers, their late season form taken as a snap shot would have had them amongst the best of the Eastern teams for these stats). No team with figures as poor as Ottawa has, has come near to featuring in the SC Finals (in the short time I've been keeping these stats) let alone winning them (Carolina as a real outsider in 01-02 comes closest, but even then their 1-goal game figures were still easily superior to Ottawas). Buffalo has to be my projected Eastern winner.

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A quick summary sees Detroit & Buffalo featuring in at least 3 of the 4 listed categories of note for recent SC winners, while Ottawa & Anaheim did not. I'd be suprised, therefore, if neither of the former teams make the SC Finals.

 

[catfood]

Great thread BC. Ottawas one goal game defeats during this year must be taken with a grain of salt I think. They did go through a period where they 'sacrificed' games as they were trying defensive schemes. I cant verify this with stats and I dont know if anyone else noticed, but Ottawa are a lot sharper in closing out games now than theyve ever been. The 'old' sens used to have the habit of getting caught/overlapped in the 3rd period.

 

[BetCrimes1984]

catfood - I think its obviously a fair observation that Ottawa are playing above the level their regular seasons stats would suggest. But I also think its important to realise what these stats impart as related to having meaning for the post season: teams with good records for these games have had that preparation during the regular season, for success in close post season games. So while Ottawa's stats may not reflect their real capability as opposed to what figures they might have put up (without the experimenting you allude to), they still reflect that they havent had that level of preparation the other 3 finalists have had. How much that hurts them, remains to be seen.

 

[catfood]

Oh I hear you BC, and for the record, the experimenting I alluded to was out of Alfredsson's mouth during an interview. I just wish there was a site where these stats could be broken down like 1st half/2nd half of the season or month by month, Id be very curious to see it.

 

[BetCrimes1984]

I forgot to update this before the finals, but I will update the situation before game 5:

In the playoffs so far...

Anaheim is 12-2 SU in games decided by 1 goal
Ottawa is 7-6 SU in games decided by 1 goal

 

[Santacapper]

never ceases to amaze what a predictor this can be :cheers:

 

[catfood]

Yes it is quite the predicator, if we took this stat mixed with the team with the most amount of canadians on it, we could pick a futures in the winter with a high chance of cashing.