Bears vs Redskins: Week 3 NFL Monday Night Football Picks & Predictions
Bears vs Redskins
Monday, September 23 2019 at 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN) at FedEx Field
Odds
Most oddsmakers have the visiting Bears favored by four points. Chicago has been favored by as many as 5.5 points and as few as 3.5 points. Recent history speaks for the Redskins. Against Washington, the Bears are enduring 0-5 ATS and 0-7 SU runs. In their last 10 against the NFC East in general, the Bears are 1-9 ATS.
Mitchell Trubisky Is Bad, Really Bad
Quarterback Mitchell Trubisky is the biggest reason why Chicago is finding it difficult to score. In two weeks, against the Packers and Broncos, respectively, the Bears have scored a combined total of 26 points with Trubisky completing 58 percent of his passes for fewer than five yards per pass attempt, for zero touchdowns and one interception, and for a 65 passer rating.
Against Green Bay, Trubisky often struggled to deliver his passes quickly enough. He misidentified his most propitious targets, made poor decisions both in passing plays and RPOs, and committed a number of other errors.
One could at least excuse Trubisky for playing a Packer defense that’s been a positive surprise and relatively difficult to score on.
No excuse is in store for Trubisky’s paltry Week 2 performance against a Denver defense whose once vaunted pass rush has been nearly absent (zero sacks and two quarterback hits through two games) and which has nothing at cornerback past Chris Harris.
Denver should have been an opponent that Trubisky showed encouraging signs against. But he showed no confidence, attempting 27 passes for a total of 120 yards. Only eight of those attempts traveled at least 10 yards past the line of scrimmage and he completed one of them.
Instead, on nearly half his throws, he sought a wide-open pass-catcher near the line of scrimmage and he wasn’t even very efficient on those passes. His inaccuracy was repeatedly evident in his over- and under-throwing receivers.
Keep in mind that Trubisky has looked lost despite having an offensive genius in Matt Nagy to operate under.
Washington Stands Up To Chicago’s Pass Rush
In order to support a bet on Chicago, one would have to really love its defense. The Bears held Green Bay to 10 points in the Packers’ first game under a new head coach and new offensive coordinator. They then surprised nobody by holding a hapless Flacco-led Denver offense to 14 points.
Chicago’s pass rush is a key to its defensive success. But it will contend with a Redskin offensive line that ranks third in pass protection based on sack rate. Washington blockers include Pro Bowlers at left tackle and right guard.
The latter, Brandon Scherff, was PFF’s highest-graded pass-protecting guard last year. At center, Chase Roullier allowed only one sack among 19 quarterback pressures.
Even if Chicago’s pass rush occasionally bests Washington’s protection unit, Redskin quarterback Case Keenum has earned in recent years one of the best passer ratings when under pressure.
Case Keenum Is Underrated
Quarterback A is completing 67 percent of his passes for 624 yards, five touchdowns, five interceptions, and an 82.8 passer rating. Quarterback B is completing 69 percent of his passes for 601 yards, five touchdowns, zero interceptions, and a 111.2 passer rating.
The second option, Case Keenum, has been sharp and efficient, while sharing the wealth with a number of pass-catchers. The former, Matt Ryan, would get the respect from NFL oddsmakers that Keenum’s team is not getting.
Look for Keenum to maintain his strong numbers against a Bears secondary that's led by two former All-Pro but massively underachieving defensive backs in Kyle Fuller and Eddie Jackson. Both carry a PFF grade that’s over 20 points lower from last year’s.
Conclusion
One team, Chicago, is favored, but finds it extremely difficult to score against anybody. The other team is a live home underdog led by a strongly performing quarterback behind a top-notch protection unit going against an underachieving secondary. Take the Redskins for an NFL Pick.
Best Bet: Redskins +4 at -105 odds with Heritage
Bears vs Redskins
Monday, September 23 2019 at 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN) at FedEx Field
Odds
Most oddsmakers have the visiting Bears favored by four points. Chicago has been favored by as many as 5.5 points and as few as 3.5 points. Recent history speaks for the Redskins. Against Washington, the Bears are enduring 0-5 ATS and 0-7 SU runs. In their last 10 against the NFC East in general, the Bears are 1-9 ATS.
Mitchell Trubisky Is Bad, Really Bad
Quarterback Mitchell Trubisky is the biggest reason why Chicago is finding it difficult to score. In two weeks, against the Packers and Broncos, respectively, the Bears have scored a combined total of 26 points with Trubisky completing 58 percent of his passes for fewer than five yards per pass attempt, for zero touchdowns and one interception, and for a 65 passer rating.
Against Green Bay, Trubisky often struggled to deliver his passes quickly enough. He misidentified his most propitious targets, made poor decisions both in passing plays and RPOs, and committed a number of other errors.
One could at least excuse Trubisky for playing a Packer defense that’s been a positive surprise and relatively difficult to score on.
No excuse is in store for Trubisky’s paltry Week 2 performance against a Denver defense whose once vaunted pass rush has been nearly absent (zero sacks and two quarterback hits through two games) and which has nothing at cornerback past Chris Harris.
Denver should have been an opponent that Trubisky showed encouraging signs against. But he showed no confidence, attempting 27 passes for a total of 120 yards. Only eight of those attempts traveled at least 10 yards past the line of scrimmage and he completed one of them.
Instead, on nearly half his throws, he sought a wide-open pass-catcher near the line of scrimmage and he wasn’t even very efficient on those passes. His inaccuracy was repeatedly evident in his over- and under-throwing receivers.
Keep in mind that Trubisky has looked lost despite having an offensive genius in Matt Nagy to operate under.
Washington Stands Up To Chicago’s Pass Rush
In order to support a bet on Chicago, one would have to really love its defense. The Bears held Green Bay to 10 points in the Packers’ first game under a new head coach and new offensive coordinator. They then surprised nobody by holding a hapless Flacco-led Denver offense to 14 points.
Chicago’s pass rush is a key to its defensive success. But it will contend with a Redskin offensive line that ranks third in pass protection based on sack rate. Washington blockers include Pro Bowlers at left tackle and right guard.
The latter, Brandon Scherff, was PFF’s highest-graded pass-protecting guard last year. At center, Chase Roullier allowed only one sack among 19 quarterback pressures.
Even if Chicago’s pass rush occasionally bests Washington’s protection unit, Redskin quarterback Case Keenum has earned in recent years one of the best passer ratings when under pressure.
Case Keenum Is Underrated
Quarterback A is completing 67 percent of his passes for 624 yards, five touchdowns, five interceptions, and an 82.8 passer rating. Quarterback B is completing 69 percent of his passes for 601 yards, five touchdowns, zero interceptions, and a 111.2 passer rating.
The second option, Case Keenum, has been sharp and efficient, while sharing the wealth with a number of pass-catchers. The former, Matt Ryan, would get the respect from NFL oddsmakers that Keenum’s team is not getting.
Look for Keenum to maintain his strong numbers against a Bears secondary that's led by two former All-Pro but massively underachieving defensive backs in Kyle Fuller and Eddie Jackson. Both carry a PFF grade that’s over 20 points lower from last year’s.
Conclusion
One team, Chicago, is favored, but finds it extremely difficult to score against anybody. The other team is a live home underdog led by a strongly performing quarterback behind a top-notch protection unit going against an underachieving secondary. Take the Redskins for an NFL Pick.
Best Bet: Redskins +4 at -105 odds with Heritage
