Redskins@Packers

[Wikeman]

I like analyzing Packers games. The team is nicely one-dimensional on offense, and good on defense, so if you can guess which day Favre will have, your chances of picking the right side are good.
Both teams have been doing well, but the approach is different:
GB is 4-1 coming off a sloppy 20-27 loss against the Bears @Lambeau last week.
Redskins are 3-1 coming of a crushing 34-3 home win against the Lions.
Public perception has GB as the stronger team, 55% are on the Packers laying a field goal.
The bookies largely stick to -3 with larger juice instead of moving the line to -3.5 (which would probably create an influx of Redskins money).
The teams didn’t meet since 2004, so no meaningful H2H stats.

Trend reasons for backing/fading the Redskins:
- Nothing strongly for or against in trends.
- Last year Redskins had only two road wins (SU and ATS), one ATS push, and 5 losses.

Trend reasons for backing/fading Packers:
- GB is a streaky team rather than a rebound team.
- Lambeau mystique has gone, GB laid two eggs @home and only covered 2 times ATS last season.

Matchup:
- GB has an one-dimensional offense (passing), and they will be up against the #8 passing defense so far (LY Redskins’ passing defense was ranked #23 though). Switching to rushing won’t help, Redskins are #8 in that category too (#27 last year).
- Redskins #10 rushing offense vs #14 defense.
- Redskins #19 passing offense vs #23 defense.

Summary:
The Redskins seem more balanced and likely to move the ball in this game. Santana Moss and Antwaan Randle El will probably both be playing giving Campbell good options.

The stats are not very robust, and both teams are probably overperforming to some degree. However, I think the Redskins have shown some consistently good passing defense against good QBs (Eli Manning, McNabb, Kitna). On the other hand Campbell can always become a liability in a game. He personally idolizes Favre, whatever effect that may have.

Overall Redskins +3 is my lean.

 

[Tide High]

i'd lean skins, but not enough to make a bet, yet.

where did you hear moss and randle el would be in? randle el didn't practice yesterday

 

[Wikeman]

i'd lean skins, but not enough to make a bet, yet.
where did you hear moss and randle el would be in? randle el didn't practice yesterday

It seems Randle didn't practice today either. My bad, he will probably be out. Moss has practiced from Tue and should be in.

 

[ATLHawksBandwagon]

Don't worry about the pass defense (I think you might be since you listed last years rank), last year they were decimated by injuries. I think the key between this being a decisive Redskins win and a close game is going to be the defensive line. They were unbelievable last week, Williams didn't have to blitz at all because they were in the backfield all game. Andre Carter has looked like a totally different player this year, at this rate he'll be in the Pro Bowl. I don't see why the defense would have more trouble with the Packers passing offense than they would with the Lions.
All I'm saying is that this defense is legit, I talked about it before the season, the CBs being healthy is what it's all about.

GL man. 3.5 would be awesome, don't see it happening though.

 

[C-Gold]

Redskins defense line wasn't nasty at all last week....

They just so often had BOTH defensive tackles line up in the C Gap, daring the Lions to run... but Mike Martz is too egotistical to try and do that. The Lions didn't start running up the middle to exploit that until the 3rd quarter.

Jason Campbell completed a lot of balls, but did you see how far they were? Almost every single ball was thrown 5 yards or less ( really even 2 yards or less), and I guess I counted 4 balls thrown over 10 yards ( 2 of them were play action).

Mark Brunell completed what was it, 26 straight passes running that Horizontal offense?

That was a 2 possesion game until the 4th quarter and was a lot closer than the score dictated.

 

[ATLHawksBandwagon]

I am actually happy about the length of the passes? I think you're arguing just to argue because Jason Campbell's problem is obviously not his down field passes, it's his touch on the short ones. When Santana gets back I'm sure they will be just fine going deep.

 

[EDizzle]

I have watched every skins game this season and I have seem some good things and some things that could bite them in the ass later in the season.

So far this season Gibbs has done a good job of keeping the "training wheels" on young Jason Campell. The majority of his passes are 15 yards and under. You see a lot of screens and dumps offs into the flats. He dumps off to his running backs at a high frequency and expect them to break tackles. I realize his QB rating is over 80, but that is due to high percentage passing and not taking risking interceptions by throwing the deep ball. Horizontal offense?? I totally agree. He had a good game last week, but not that great. Or maybe he just didnt screw up? He didnt really do anything to actually win the game. The defense just shut down detroit.

But as far as this weeks matchup I think Green Bay is in a good spot at home coming off a crummy loss on SNF. And I think a FG spread is about right. Green Bay's D is still underrated IMO they have the best 2 corners in the game. I'm not sure if Al Harris is playing. They have a very solid LB core, Hawk and Barnett are studs. I think they can keep Washingtons offense in check, especially with all their injuries on the right side of their line. Somebody needs to attack that.

On positive side Washingtons D has been playing great so far this season despite doing anything to bolster their Dline in the off season. They will certainly be in for a test coming into Lambeau with Farve throwing the ball as many times as he is. They played lights out against Detroit, can they repeat that kind of performance?

Also whats the word on Santana Moss and Randel El?

 

[ATLHawksBandwagon]

Moss has fully participated in practice the last two day, so he's definitely starting, and Randle El hasn't practiced and isn't expected to play. ... I just wanted to throw in that the Skins aren't gonna ask Campbell to do more than he needs to. I don't think there should be any criticism whatsoever over the "horizontal passing game" because he has struggled with short passes more than deep balls. The Skins offense is a grinding, run dominated one ... I am completely confident in his ability to get the ball downfield, it's the intermediate passes that have scared me with him.

 

[C-Gold]

Campbell throws a majority of his passes under 15 yards? I really only saw 4 balls be completed past 5-7 yards and a majority of those passes were in the backfield or 2 yards past the line.

JC kept dropping back and hitting 2 yard dump offs to Betts etc.

2 of his 4 balls completed past 10 yards were off of play action where there wasn't much of a read, and the receiver ( Mccardel) was wide open.

I guess JC had a 37 yard pass to randel el, but he hits the guy on a slant 1-2 yards past the line and Randel el takes off.

Gibbs certainly doesn't trust Campbell enough to open up the offense. He basically just ran a vanilla offense and let the Lions make their mistakes.

I know everybody says "campbell throws a pretty deep ball". but I don't see it.

Don't be confused, he certainly has a strong arm. but I don't see the pretty deep ball. In fact the only balls that really weren't completed last week were the intermediate and deeper balls.

What about that big time overthrow of Santana Moss in the eagles game? I just don't see him throwing as pretty of a deep ball as everybody says.

Remember when Mark Brunell completed 26 straight passes on dinks and dunks against Houston last year? That is what Jason did last week only he wasn't as effective.

I know people want to hype him up because...

 

[Tito]

go ahead c-gold...say it - "b/c he's black"


good lord dude, wtf happened that makes you so disgruntled w/ black people...do you realize how big a thing it is for you?

 

[Throwback420]

^ shits funny

 

[C-Gold]

:down2: Putting words in other peoples mouth...

 

[Wikeman]

:down2: Putting words in other peoples mouth...

Nobody hypes JC in this thread, so you sort of whip up a discussion with yourself. Not that I mind

I don't understand why anyone even mentions race here. There are plenty of black QBs, nothing special about that, and considering how scarce QB talent is, I am sure they would be dumped for a better white or yellow guy (and the opposite way around). I don't see the black QBs of the league being particularly popular.

 

[C-Gold]

Young quarterbacks are overhyped

What do you always hear?

"Johnny quarterback is going to be good... He has a strong arm blah blah"

Then fans only see what they want to see. If he plays good, then it makes them think that they are right and that he will be good. If the guy fucks up, then they excuse it with " oh well, he is still young" and they always assume, the player will get better.

That doesn't always happen. Some guys don't have the discipline or mental capacity to get better.

If Peyton Manning didn't study his playbook, or defenses or practice constantly with his receivers, do you think he would be good? I don't. There is no guy that is so physically gifted that he doesn't have to work hard at quarterback.

 

[Tito]

:down2: Putting words in other peoples mouth...

Hey, I apologize if that was not what you were going to say. I just have a feeling that it was

I don't think Jc is getting more hype than any of the other young qb's. Shit, I didn't even know he was being hyped at all or at least I haven't heard it.

GL this Sunday :cheers:

 

[STEED]

good luck bro.

 

[C-Gold]

If you lived in Washington you would be sick of hearing how much hype Jason Campbell gets. I heard redskins fans say he was the next Vince Young, Dough Williams and Warren Moon. They talk about him being the QB for the next 10 years.

Mark Brunell played similar last year and they practically booed him off the field. He was this boring old man to them that only threw 5 yard dump off passes.

You see the same thing with Jason.