MLB Parlay Picks of the Day
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Wednesday, May 12, 2021 at 12:35 ET at PNC Park in Pittsburgh
Sonny Gray
Red starter Sonny Gray has turned his season around, yielding a combined total of two earned runs in his past two starts against high-ceiling White Sox and Dodger lineups.
Three changes help explain Gray’s improvement: he is throwing more of his sinker, his pitches have improved in terms of velocity, and he has figured out his curveball.
After averaging no more than 92.3 mph in his first two starts, Gray’s sinker is averaging over 93 mph in his last two starts.
This pitch’s potential to be an effective weapon for him is particularly evident in Gray’s last start, where this pitch yielded .182 BA and slugging rates.
Gray’s 4-seam fastball has witnessed a similar uptick in velocity in order to become, once again, a serviceable pitch for him particularly early in the count.
Moreover, Gray figured out his curveball, which his last two opponents have produced zero hits against after slamming it in his first two starts.
His curveball creates a solid change of pace relative to his other pitches and is typically a strong weapon against left-handed batters.
Gray vs. Pirate Batters
Today, Gray is in a particularly strong spot because his career daytime ERA is 3.13, compared to .378 at night.
Moreover, in a combined total of 69 at-bats, only one Pirate hitter is slugging over .333 in his career against Gray.
Trevor Cahill vs. Red Batters
Red batters haven’t seen too much of Pirate starter Trevor Cahill, but the initial results look promising.
Tyler Naquin, Nick Senzel, Tucker Barnhart, and Mike Moustakas all slug at least 1.000 in at least three career at-bats against Cahill.
This lineup will succeed against Cahill today because it matches up well with him.
Cahill primarily throws a sinker, change-up, curveball, and cutter. He throws all four pitches with over 17 percent frequency.
Cincinnati ranks third in slugging .471 against these four pitches combined from righties.
Trend
Lastly, the Reds are in a strong spot today as they are 5-1 after losing the previous game by 5+ runs.
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals
Wednesday, May 12, 2021 at 7:05 p.m. ET at Nationals Park in Washington D.C.
Zack Wheeler
Zack Wheeler is enjoying his relocation to Philadelphia.
Last year was his first year on the Phillies and he produced a career-best year.
As measured by stats like ERA, Wheeler is again producing the best season of his career.
Wheeler has upped his strikeout rate this season largely because of his sinker. This pitch’s whiff rate has spiked 9.1 percent since last season.
Opponents struggle against his sinker’s relatively strong horizontal movement and its frequent location on the border or lower half of the strike zone.
Wheeler vs. Nationals Batters
Wheeler’s last few starts in Nationals Park have been strong. So his career numbers in Washington mask this recent improvement.
His improvement in Nationals Park will continue also because the National lineup is arguably weaker this year than in recent years.
Active National batters, in any case, only slug .354 against Wheeler in a combined total of 164 at-bats.
Expect little from the characteristically dangerous Juan Soto. Soto has been cold since his return from the IL and is 4-for-21 (.190) with eight strikeouts in his career against Wheeler.
Jon Lester
In a combined total of 97 at-bats, the Reds slug .559 against National starter Jon Lester.
Jean Segura, J.T. Realmuto, Bryce Harper, and Andrew McCutchen all slug over .500 in at least eight at-bats against Lester.
This lineup will thrive today because it already does well against Lester’s pitches.
Philly ranks 7th in slugging .480 against Lester’s three favorite pitches —the changeup, cutter, and fastball — from lefties.
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves
Wednesday, May 12, 2021 at 7:20 p.m. ET at Truist Park in Cumberland, Georgia
Hyun Jin Ryu vs. Brave Batters
Toronto starter Hyun Jin Ryu has had a couple of bad outings this season, including his last one.
But he should bounce back because he has generally been solid, allowing two earned runs or fewer in four of six starts.
He benefits from a strong match-up against an Atlanta team that is yielding -3.8 units against lefties.
The Braves rank second-to-last in hitting .181 against left-handed pitching.
They have already struggled against Ryu, producing a .171 BA and .250 slugging rate in a combined total of 76 at-bats against him.
Ryu even has strong numbers against Brave righties like Marcell Ozuna. Ryu can dominate right-handed hitting because he is very comfortable throwing his changeup, which is a classic weapon against opposite-handed batters.
Max Fried vs. Toronto Hitters
Toronto does not share Atlanta’s problem with left-handed pitching.
To the contrary, the Blue Jays rank third in slugging .515 against Fried’s favorite pitches — the fastball, slider, and curveball — from lefties.
Fried’s first and last starts notwithstanding, he has been a considerable disappointment this season, showing among other problems a relatively strong vulnerability to the long ball.
Parlay Verdict
Expect the Reds to have an advantage with an improved Gray especially during the day and against Pirate batters.
The Phillies will thrive behind an improved Wheeler in Nationals Park.
Lastly, Atlanta will struggle against another lefty.
Best Bet: Parlay Reds 1H ML at -185, Phillies 1H ML at -150, Blue Jays 1H ML at -130 at +354 odds with Bovada
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Wednesday, May 12, 2021 at 12:35 ET at PNC Park in Pittsburgh
Sonny Gray
Red starter Sonny Gray has turned his season around, yielding a combined total of two earned runs in his past two starts against high-ceiling White Sox and Dodger lineups.
Three changes help explain Gray’s improvement: he is throwing more of his sinker, his pitches have improved in terms of velocity, and he has figured out his curveball.
After averaging no more than 92.3 mph in his first two starts, Gray’s sinker is averaging over 93 mph in his last two starts.
This pitch’s potential to be an effective weapon for him is particularly evident in Gray’s last start, where this pitch yielded .182 BA and slugging rates.
Gray’s 4-seam fastball has witnessed a similar uptick in velocity in order to become, once again, a serviceable pitch for him particularly early in the count.
Moreover, Gray figured out his curveball, which his last two opponents have produced zero hits against after slamming it in his first two starts.
His curveball creates a solid change of pace relative to his other pitches and is typically a strong weapon against left-handed batters.
Gray vs. Pirate Batters
Today, Gray is in a particularly strong spot because his career daytime ERA is 3.13, compared to .378 at night.
Moreover, in a combined total of 69 at-bats, only one Pirate hitter is slugging over .333 in his career against Gray.
Trevor Cahill vs. Red Batters
Red batters haven’t seen too much of Pirate starter Trevor Cahill, but the initial results look promising.
Tyler Naquin, Nick Senzel, Tucker Barnhart, and Mike Moustakas all slug at least 1.000 in at least three career at-bats against Cahill.
This lineup will succeed against Cahill today because it matches up well with him.
Cahill primarily throws a sinker, change-up, curveball, and cutter. He throws all four pitches with over 17 percent frequency.
Cincinnati ranks third in slugging .471 against these four pitches combined from righties.
Trend
Lastly, the Reds are in a strong spot today as they are 5-1 after losing the previous game by 5+ runs.
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals
Wednesday, May 12, 2021 at 7:05 p.m. ET at Nationals Park in Washington D.C.
Zack Wheeler
Zack Wheeler is enjoying his relocation to Philadelphia.
Last year was his first year on the Phillies and he produced a career-best year.
As measured by stats like ERA, Wheeler is again producing the best season of his career.
Wheeler has upped his strikeout rate this season largely because of his sinker. This pitch’s whiff rate has spiked 9.1 percent since last season.
Opponents struggle against his sinker’s relatively strong horizontal movement and its frequent location on the border or lower half of the strike zone.
Wheeler vs. Nationals Batters
Wheeler’s last few starts in Nationals Park have been strong. So his career numbers in Washington mask this recent improvement.
His improvement in Nationals Park will continue also because the National lineup is arguably weaker this year than in recent years.
Active National batters, in any case, only slug .354 against Wheeler in a combined total of 164 at-bats.
Expect little from the characteristically dangerous Juan Soto. Soto has been cold since his return from the IL and is 4-for-21 (.190) with eight strikeouts in his career against Wheeler.
Jon Lester
In a combined total of 97 at-bats, the Reds slug .559 against National starter Jon Lester.
Jean Segura, J.T. Realmuto, Bryce Harper, and Andrew McCutchen all slug over .500 in at least eight at-bats against Lester.
This lineup will thrive today because it already does well against Lester’s pitches.
Philly ranks 7th in slugging .480 against Lester’s three favorite pitches —the changeup, cutter, and fastball — from lefties.
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves
Wednesday, May 12, 2021 at 7:20 p.m. ET at Truist Park in Cumberland, Georgia
Hyun Jin Ryu vs. Brave Batters
Toronto starter Hyun Jin Ryu has had a couple of bad outings this season, including his last one.
But he should bounce back because he has generally been solid, allowing two earned runs or fewer in four of six starts.
He benefits from a strong match-up against an Atlanta team that is yielding -3.8 units against lefties.
The Braves rank second-to-last in hitting .181 against left-handed pitching.
They have already struggled against Ryu, producing a .171 BA and .250 slugging rate in a combined total of 76 at-bats against him.
Ryu even has strong numbers against Brave righties like Marcell Ozuna. Ryu can dominate right-handed hitting because he is very comfortable throwing his changeup, which is a classic weapon against opposite-handed batters.
Max Fried vs. Toronto Hitters
Toronto does not share Atlanta’s problem with left-handed pitching.
To the contrary, the Blue Jays rank third in slugging .515 against Fried’s favorite pitches — the fastball, slider, and curveball — from lefties.
Fried’s first and last starts notwithstanding, he has been a considerable disappointment this season, showing among other problems a relatively strong vulnerability to the long ball.
Parlay Verdict
Expect the Reds to have an advantage with an improved Gray especially during the day and against Pirate batters.
The Phillies will thrive behind an improved Wheeler in Nationals Park.
Lastly, Atlanta will struggle against another lefty.
Best Bet: Parlay Reds 1H ML at -185, Phillies 1H ML at -150, Blue Jays 1H ML at -130 at +354 odds with Bovada
