Reds over 10.5

[tuck321]

Last 20 at home Reds are 12 over and 8 under. This year they are 1-5 at home vs Houston. Paulino is someone who still should be in double a. Last 4 starts of which 3 in mlb and 1 in double a 14 runs in 15 innings. The Reds are going to pound him and the Astros will return the favor. Last 7 games between them in Cinn 5 over, a push and a under. The 8 games where the Reds went under in last 20 all involved a reasonable starting pitcher for the opposition. Bottom line we have 2 teams that are not friendly, a very weak link and who cares as the spectators enjoy thoom city. Played Detroit under. Think I am going to be doing that a lot. GL

 

[xpression syst_m]

agree with this one at first look, having both of these pens is a nice bonus for sure.

 

[BetCrimes1984]

be interested to see ump & conditions. Stros pretty much had 3 days off after their latter 2 efforts in St Lou.

BOL tuck

 

[tuck321]

The last game the Astro's played where the win was snatched away had to have set them off. If they had taken 3 of 4 you figure a good mood but now not so much and the next day Shearn and Gutierrez might actually pitch a real game and then another over with Wandy and Belisle.

 

[Trueblue]

line seems to be moving in favor of the under. Any ump/weather info?

 

[Trueblue]

tuck, i looked over the game a bit and the main thing that worries me along with the fact that the Reds are coming off a long trip is that the 21 year young Bailey looked and pitched very well in his first returning game on the road at Pac Bell. Yes, it was the Giants, but I read this on yahoo:

"He was regularly hitting 94 mph on the radar and topping out at 96-97. He also was able to throw his breaking pitches for strikes."


However, Bailey is also scheduled to pitch the season closer, making that 2 starts within this week. I think that given the rotation switch they made with Shearn and Bailey, the Reds will have to be conservative with his PC for him to throw. I wouldn't be surprised to see him go 5 innings, leaving them to the mercy of their bullpen. Yes, I can see the angle that the Reds are just trying to use him to close out the last few meaningless games of the season. However, that also makes me question their motivation to hit the ball.

I guess I'd just like some assurance that Reds aren't on cruise control and want to GTFO of this week and watch the play-offs on TV now that they are home. Their last 5 games they have averaged less then 4 runs a game against a sub-par at best pitching crew... I'll keep digging..

 

[tuck321]

In Baileys last 4 minor leaque starts before that mlb game he went 17 innings and gave up 17 runs. In the five starts before them he had 2 good games and 3 terrible ones. There is some doubt in my mind that he can keep up the quality of his starts. The last 2 Reds games they were playing a broken down Giants team they had gone 4-1 against that was going with young pitchers. Do not see motivation but vs a Houston team that was 5-1 at their home this season I see motivation. No way to know umps but my weather report show around 90, some chance of storms and 45% humidity. Wind direction seemed vague. Just seems percentage to me. No monster bet but a bet. GL

 

[phoso1]

I like the Reds tonite....dont know about the over....but if the they set it at 10.5 they must know something....on the other hand ....i hit big on SFO/SD OVER last nite...i knew it was going over...but the line was set 7.5 -25 U .......its a fuckin mind game.

 

[gpcyan3]

My opinion doesnt mean much, as I struggled terribly with MLB this year, but I have watched my fair share of Reds games and I have seen every game Homer has pitched.

Couple things I have noticed:

The Reds organization really wants to get wins for this kid. He is their franchise player in the future and they want to instill some confidence in him. This usually means the Reds provide a decent amount of run support for him. The games I have watched this year they have (for the most part) sent out a good lineup for him. Red's Manager will also not be afraid to pull him in the 5th if he is up for a win and looks to be struggling with his pitches.

Seems every part of this ballclub is on the same page for HB. They want to win the game when he pitches. That page is get him comfortable, don't let him pitch himself out of a win, and provide enough runs so he isn't afraid to go after batters.

just my 2 cents

 

[RetroVK]

The games I have watched this year they have (for the most part) sent out a good lineup for him

They don't have a good lineup to possibly send out without Griffey and without Hamilton. Play on the over here has to be on the two pitchers and the ballpark because these two lineups are atrocious. Wish you good luck with this and I think it is a reasonable play. I desperately hope the reds lose as I have a huge future on the under for their season wins. I kind of like the reds to win here though.

 

[Trueblue]

someone smacked the under 10.5 all the way to + juice at my book..hmm.

 

[gpcyan3]

Good points vegaskyle. w/o Griffey and Ham they'll hafta rely on Dunn and Phillips to hit the long ball...

you dont have much to worry about their future under. No way they are hitting the over this season for wins. (I had them over =( )

I'm not playing this game, just wanted to give my opinion.

 

[RetroVK]

so far so good ... 9 runs already ... and need just one more from houston to secure victory or two more from reds. go hitters !

 

[RetroVK]

Houston ties it at 5. money in the bank barring weather. good call ! now come on houston win this thing !

gpcyan3 -- i think homer bailey will be a stud for them the next couple of years. wierd because he pitches so damn well in minors but got smashed up in spring ball and has not looked spectacular starting in the majors. But he has all the tools and once he gets comfortable i see him doing a lot for that club.

 

[BetCrimes1984]

:smiley_abcs:

 

[footballjunkie]

great call man, tailed ya on that pick