Reds @ Cubs, 7/8

JROCK1966

JROCK1966

Big Blue Nation
2018 Overall Posted MLB YTD: -$433.85

I'm attempting to try and make up / recover losses from my posted parlay adventures and other posts earlier this season. I ended up losing $508.65 in all that. Last three days, I'm up $74.80 so I'm sitting at -$433.85. Not sure if I will be successful at all but let's see if backing Jon Lester can help me out today.

Away dogs with losing records in the month of July, on Sundays, playing teams with winning records and the opponent has between 9-13 more wins, and coming off a 1-run loss are 0-6 SU & 1-5 RL in SDQL dbase history. This trend is active on the Reds today. See pic 1. In pic 2, the Cubs are 8-5 SU & 5-8 RL this season vs. opponents with losing records and facing a right-handed starter. However, upon closer inspection, Jon Lester is 3-0 SU and 2-1 RL in 3 of those games. The lone RL loss was last Sunday vs. the Twins when the BP blew a huge lead. After yesterday's meltdown, the Reds have their work cut out for them today mentally-speaking to bounce back from that loss....but also physically-speaking in facing Lester. The historical SDQL for this spot just gives some mojo backing the home team.

cubs1.jpgcubs2.jpg
 
I think I'll play the Rays today as well. Away favs with winning or even records, on Sundays in July, vs. a team with a losing record, 7-11 more wins than the opponent, won the previous game by 1-5 runs, and have a starting pitcher with an ERA > 3.5 have gone 2-0 SU and 1-1 RL in SDQL history. Eovaldi's splits are 1-4 SU and 1-4 RL in away games this season but look who his losses were to....Scherzer, Loasiga, Morton, and Chen. Chen has been really good at home this season. If I'm Eovaldi, I'm finally looking forward to getting a win and not having to face a good team and/or good pitcher. The Mets are starting a guy today that has struggled during his time in the BP. I have not looked up Flexen's stats but I would hazard a guess he has struggled to throw strikes and that's why they are starting him. You start a guy like that because if your team gets down runs then you still have a chance to come back vice bringing him out of the pen and not being able to throw strikes. When you do that in the late stages of a game then it's game over! I really like Eovaldi's chances today to get into the win column this afternoon.

rays1.jpgrays2.jpg
 
solid point rock.....flexen got pounded pretty good in his starts last year and the mets pen's home era of 4.86 bodes well for the rays as they seem to be able to use a bunch of pitchers in a game effectively....i think snell went 7 yesterday so tb pen should be ok
 
I'm not seeing any reason the Royals can keep it close today. Red Sox on Sundays this season are 5-2 SU and 4-3 RL. Losses came at Yankees Stadium and at Oakland vs. Mengden (pic 1). The other RL loss came at Tampa Bay who we know have played really well at home. Porcello as a fav on the road has lost only once to Snell and Tampa Bay. Junis at home vs. winning teams has only won twice which was earlier this season. He's been struggling since.

redsox1.jpgredsox2.jpgredsox3.jpg
 
A's / Indians Under: 5 different trends listed below and the only Over came on a Friday night. Gotta go or I would explain more but briefly, was trying to find a play backing the A's and settled for the Under.

as1.jpgas2.jpgas3.jpgas4.jpgas5.jpg
 
My Card thus far for today:
  1. Baseball 958 Chicago Cubs* -1½ +135 vs Cincinnati Reds
    L Castillo - R Listed J Lester - L Listed
    Risking $15.00 To Win $20.25
  2. 7/8/2018 2:20 PM MLB Baseball 958 Chicago Cubs* -145 vs Cincinnati Reds
    L Castillo - R Listed J Lester - L Listed
    Risking $21.75 To Win $15.00
  3. 7/8/2018 1:10 PM MLB Baseball 965 Oakland Athletics/Cleveland Indians* Under 9 +100
    B Anderson - L Listed S Bieber - R Listed
    Risking $15.00 To Win $15.00
  4. 7/8/2018 2:15 PM MLB Baseball 973 Boston Red Sox* -2½ +110 vs Kansas City Royals
    R Porcello - R Listed J Junis - R Listed
    Risking $15.00 To Win $16.50
  5. 7/8/2018 1:10 PM MLB Baseball 975 Tampa Bay Rays* -1½ +115 vs New York Mets
    N Eovaldi - R Listed C Flexen - R Listed
    Risking $15.00 To Win $17.25
  6. 7/8/2018 1:10 PM MLB Baseball 975 Tampa Bay Rays* -141 vs New York Mets
    N Eovaldi - R Listed C Flexen - R Listed
    Risking $21.15 To Win $15.00
BOLTA!!
 
1 Parlay for fun...

Risking $6.90 to Win $53.71
Cubs -145
Athletics/Cleveland Indians Under 9½ -125
Red Sox -1½ -145
Rays -141

:oops:
 
I'll have the sox lineups here soon. They fielded their best defense and almost best O yesterday. Not sure who will rest today but their lineup changes has as effect on their production....thoughts in a bit
 
Gonna pass on the Red Sox....part of my confidence in my play posted earlier was I did not feel like Junis was going to slow down these Red Sox bats. Not knowing anything about Fillmyer I can't say that. In addition, he's a ground ball pitcher (see pic 1) and wind is cutting across right to left at Kaufmann which is not bad if a pitcher wants sinking movement on the fastball. Think I'll just take the cancelled wagers back and watch everything else.

PS - Rays off to a great start!

fillmyer.jpgfillmyer1.jpg
 
filmeier on a pitch count....75....and kc pen used hard last night and they suck....martinez out for sox and replaced by pearce who has been hot since joining sox....not sure that what kc has to offer can slow sox bats down
 
BJPLAYER said:
filmeier on a pitch count....75....and kc pen used hard last night and they suck....martinez out for sox and replaced by pearce who has been hot since joining sox....not sure that what kc has to offer can slow sox bats down
Click to expand...

Maybe Butera still has something left in his arm! :D
 
Tomlin's in for Cleveland to pitch the 9th...I thought I was in good shape with my Under now this.

:holycow:
 
BJPLAYER said:
filmeier on a pitch count....75....and kc pen used hard last night and they suck....martinez out for sox and replaced by pearce who has been hot since joining sox....not sure that what kc has to offer can slow sox bats down
Click to expand...
Nice call!

:shake:
 
My day can go from good to great if the Cubs can score 1 more run then hold on in the 9th!! Leggo Cubbies!

:cheerclap:
 
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