Reds/Brewers & Dodgers/Padres Parlay Preview Article

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MLB Parlay for Today at (+283) Features Low-Scoring Series Openers

Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Friday, September 8, 2022 at 8:10 p.m. ET at American Family Field in Milwaukee

Who Starts for Cincinnati?


Nick Lodolo starts for the Reds tonight.

Lodolo is coming off one of his best starts of the season.

On September 4, he shut out Colorado over the course of six innings.

Pattern-wise, one should expect another strong effort from him tonight.

His best starts tend to come in pairs.

For example, at the end of May he allowed a combined total of one earned run in two starts against the Orioles and Marlins.

Second Half of the Season

In general, Lodolo has improved greatly from the first half of the season to the second.

His FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) is 3.22 in the second half whereas it was 4.86 in the first half.

Among other things, he is doing a much better job of limiting home runs.

Lodolo's Style

Lodolo is adept at generating whiffs.

One common feature of his different pitches is a high spin rate, which makes it difficult for batters to track the location of his pitches.

Primarily, he throws a sinker, curveball, and changeup.

These three pitches make up 99.9 percent of his arsenal.

His curveball, for example, ranks in the 83rdpercentile in terms of spin rate.

Another feature of his pitches is heavy movement.

Typically, Lodolo's pitches show greater degrees of horizontal and vertical movement than those employed by other pitchers.

This level of movement makes his pitches more elusive.

Given the strong spin and movement of his pitches, it could be harder for a pitcher to command their location.

Lodolo is improving so significantly largely because he is figuring out how to command his pitches more effectively.

Lodolo vs. Brewer Batters

Tonight's Red starter matches up well against Brewer batters because he matches up well against them in view of the pitches that he throws and the fact that he's a lefty.

Throughout the season, Milwaukee has owned one of the worst lefty-hitting lineups.

Critically for tonight, they rank 29thin slugging .287 against Lodolo's pitches from lefties.

Who Starts for Milwaukee?

Milwaukee starts Jason Alexander tonight.

Alexander may seem tempting to fade because he's suffered a couple poor outings recently.

But it's hard to fault him for struggling in Arizona's uniquely dry climate in his last start and, three starts ago, for failing to limit the mighty Dodgers.

Alexander vs. Red Batters

Alexander's favorite pitches are his sinker, slider, and changeup.

These three pitches make up 96 percent of his arsenal.

Red batters, however, rank 25thin slugging against his favorite pitches.

Generally, Cincinnati repeatedly fails to generate any stretch of success.

Hence, the lineup repeatedly falls flat after participating in two straight victories.

In the second half of the season, the Reds have failed to exceed three runs in all five games that directly followed a two-game win streak.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres
Friday, September 9, 2022 at 9:40 p.m. ET at Petco Park in San Diego

Who Starts for San Diego?


Mike Clevinger starts for the Padres tonight.

Clevinger is in a nice bounce-back spot today because he is coming off a loss.

With six losses on the season, Clevinger has allowed two runs or fewer in every start that directly followed a loss except for when he pitched in high-altitude Denver.

Rematch

Moreover, Clevinger enjoys a rematch situation in which he faces the same team twice in a row.

Most recently, he shut out Arizona over six innings after pitching against them in his previous start.

His success against the same lineup, faced in consecutive outings, extends to his most recent rematch situations over the course of recent seasons.

Who Starts for Los Angeles?

Dustin May starts for the Dodgers.

Though a smaller historical data sample speaks for it, May is in a good spot tonight.

Most especially, he merits optimism tonight because he matches up well against Padre batters.

They rank 28thin slugging against his favorite pitches, the fastball, sinker, cutter, and curveball, from righties.

Best Bet: Parlay Reds/Brewers under 8.5 at -115 & Dodgers/Padres under 8 at +105 at +283 odds with BetOnline
 
The problem with Alexander isn’t his recent poor starts as much his k/bb screams that of a guy who gonna give up runs.

God knows everything in me wants to back Lodolo, he one my fav young pitchers and he a high strikeout guy vs milw! That all says milw Ff tt u2.5, Lodolo k’s over, reds Ff, the problem is Lodolo been a completely different pitcher home and away, he did finally have a solid road start but throughout the year the difference is staggering, including getting knocked around at milw in the only game all year he allowed 2 hr’s! It not like his home park is pitcher friendly by any stretch so I’m worried he just one these guys that a bit a head case and performs better when having the same routine in his home starts/sleeping in his own bed. That really only thing I can figure, even early in the year when he was still figure things out he dominated Cards at home, then several months later after he was inserted back into lineup and started pitching better he came to stl and got blown up for his worst start of the year!!

It gonna kill me to pass on him in some form of another then watch him dominate but the home/road splits are incredibly concerning for me, to back his k prop or any kind of undsr on this game. I don’t trust Alexander at all, he a straight sinker ball pitcher who walks too many (we have seen this story before from one of cards pitchers!). The conditions in milw look like ball gonna fly, that a scary under imo, one guy I don’t like at all and another who has had real issues on the road.
 
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