How About Some Parlay Action On Series Finale Between Reds And Cubs?
Cincinnati (23-28) at Chicago Cubs (30-20)
When: 2:20 p.m. ET
MLB Pick: Parlay Cubs ML & First-Half Under
Jose Quintana (4-3, 3.30 ERA) continues to improve in his second full season of being a Cub. He has been especially successful at home, where his ERA is 1.93, compared to 5.11 away. He has thrived at home despite facing many of the better lineups in terms of runs per game, which include that of the Dodgers, Brewers, and Phillies. The Cubs are 4-1 in his starts at home, where he's yielding +2.9 units.
Compared to last year, Quintana is striking out more batters while allowing fewer walks and homers. He's inducing ground balls at the highest rate of his career. As a result, his ERA is down from 4.03 last year to 3.30 this year. The key to this improvement is his curveball, which is the pitch that he's best known for. He's reduced its opposing BA from .222 last year to .189, currently. He made a huge mechanical adjustment by altering its average horizontal release point. It now carries more velocity and elusive horizontal movement and he continues to concentrate its location in the bottom row of the strike zone.
His curveball is important because it's one of his most frequent pitches. It complements his fastball well, which is his most frequent pitch and which he likes to elevate. With his curveball, he changes the batter's eye level and creates a 15 mph velocity differential after throwing a high fastball.
It will be crucial for Quintana to prevent the long ball. He has allowed an ERA of higher than 4.00 in each of the starts in which he allowed at least one homer. Conversely, he has allowed four earned runs in the five starts combined, totaling 37 innings, in which he did not allow a homer. In 122 career at-bats, the Reds have hit only two homers against him. Joey Votto is the only Red with historic success against Quintana. But the aging star's success is itself a piece of history. This year, his BA is .215 and slugging .343. Both are career-worsts for him.
Cincinnati is least likely to hurt Quintana in Chicago. Away from home, the Reds are batting .207 and slugging .351. Conversely, their BA is .237 and slugging .437 at home. This disparity helps explain why so many of their games are low-scoring. The "under" is 31-18-1 (63.3%) in Cincinnati games overall, 17-9-1 (65.4%) in its road games, and 20-10-1 (66.7%) in its games as an underdog.
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Tanner Roark (3-3, 3.51 ERA) will be the Reds' greatest hope today. Like Quintana, he is undervalued because oddsmakers have yet to account for the leaps and bounds that he made after last year. He is striking out 1.48 more batters and conceding .85 fewer homers per nine innings. As a result, his ERA is down from 4.34 last year to 3.51 this year.
Roark's walk rate is higher than last year's largely because he was adjusting to the somewhat new pitcher that he has fashioned himself into. He is more of a plate nibbler, concentrating the location of his pitches along the borders of the strike zone while avoiding the middle, more hittable parts of the strike zone.
He's also throwing one of his favorite pitches, the slider, more often than he ever has before. This developed proclivity likewise generated initial turbulence because he wanted to use it as a weapon against left-handed batters, who regularly crushed this pitch. Since May, though, he focuses on throwing it against right-handed batters. They see it 37% of the time and hit .188 against it in 64 attempts. This year's version of his slider carries less vertical movement, so that it slides more purely, and he locates it with 50% frequency in the three spots furthest inside the strike zone against right-handed batters.
Two key trends favor Roark: his career daytime ERA is 3.12, compared to 3.88 at night. Also, he loves pitching in Wrigley Field, where his career ERA is 3.03 in five career starts.
Chicago will emerge victorious thanks to its renewed focus. After losing in the ninth inning yesterday, it will be extra determined to bounce back and finish the series on top. It will thrive especially against a tired Cincy byllpen that has thrown 8.1 innings in the past two days and will have nothing new to show the Cubs.
Cincinnati (23-28) at Chicago Cubs (30-20)
When: 2:20 p.m. ET
MLB Pick: Parlay Cubs ML & First-Half Under
Jose Quintana (4-3, 3.30 ERA) continues to improve in his second full season of being a Cub. He has been especially successful at home, where his ERA is 1.93, compared to 5.11 away. He has thrived at home despite facing many of the better lineups in terms of runs per game, which include that of the Dodgers, Brewers, and Phillies. The Cubs are 4-1 in his starts at home, where he's yielding +2.9 units.
Compared to last year, Quintana is striking out more batters while allowing fewer walks and homers. He's inducing ground balls at the highest rate of his career. As a result, his ERA is down from 4.03 last year to 3.30 this year. The key to this improvement is his curveball, which is the pitch that he's best known for. He's reduced its opposing BA from .222 last year to .189, currently. He made a huge mechanical adjustment by altering its average horizontal release point. It now carries more velocity and elusive horizontal movement and he continues to concentrate its location in the bottom row of the strike zone.
His curveball is important because it's one of his most frequent pitches. It complements his fastball well, which is his most frequent pitch and which he likes to elevate. With his curveball, he changes the batter's eye level and creates a 15 mph velocity differential after throwing a high fastball.
It will be crucial for Quintana to prevent the long ball. He has allowed an ERA of higher than 4.00 in each of the starts in which he allowed at least one homer. Conversely, he has allowed four earned runs in the five starts combined, totaling 37 innings, in which he did not allow a homer. In 122 career at-bats, the Reds have hit only two homers against him. Joey Votto is the only Red with historic success against Quintana. But the aging star's success is itself a piece of history. This year, his BA is .215 and slugging .343. Both are career-worsts for him.
Cincinnati is least likely to hurt Quintana in Chicago. Away from home, the Reds are batting .207 and slugging .351. Conversely, their BA is .237 and slugging .437 at home. This disparity helps explain why so many of their games are low-scoring. The "under" is 31-18-1 (63.3%) in Cincinnati games overall, 17-9-1 (65.4%) in its road games, and 20-10-1 (66.7%) in its games as an underdog.
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Tanner Roark (3-3, 3.51 ERA) will be the Reds' greatest hope today. Like Quintana, he is undervalued because oddsmakers have yet to account for the leaps and bounds that he made after last year. He is striking out 1.48 more batters and conceding .85 fewer homers per nine innings. As a result, his ERA is down from 4.34 last year to 3.51 this year.
Roark's walk rate is higher than last year's largely because he was adjusting to the somewhat new pitcher that he has fashioned himself into. He is more of a plate nibbler, concentrating the location of his pitches along the borders of the strike zone while avoiding the middle, more hittable parts of the strike zone.
He's also throwing one of his favorite pitches, the slider, more often than he ever has before. This developed proclivity likewise generated initial turbulence because he wanted to use it as a weapon against left-handed batters, who regularly crushed this pitch. Since May, though, he focuses on throwing it against right-handed batters. They see it 37% of the time and hit .188 against it in 64 attempts. This year's version of his slider carries less vertical movement, so that it slides more purely, and he locates it with 50% frequency in the three spots furthest inside the strike zone against right-handed batters.
Two key trends favor Roark: his career daytime ERA is 3.12, compared to 3.88 at night. Also, he loves pitching in Wrigley Field, where his career ERA is 3.03 in five career starts.
Chicago will emerge victorious thanks to its renewed focus. After losing in the ninth inning yesterday, it will be extra determined to bounce back and finish the series on top. It will thrive especially against a tired Cincy byllpen that has thrown 8.1 innings in the past two days and will have nothing new to show the Cubs.
