Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees: MLB Betting Picks and Predictions
Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees
Sunday, August 2, 2020 at 7:08 p.m. ET (ESPN) in Yankee Stadium, the Bronx, New York
Does James Paxton Have A Problem
In his season debut on July 25, James Paxton allowed three runs and five hits in one inning against a Nationals lineup that was missing star Juan Soto.
Let me be clear: I am fully aware that, just because a pitcher lays en egg in one game, it is by no means necessarily decided that he’ll lay another egg in his next game.
What truly concerns me is the way in which Paxton struggled.
It’s not just that he struggled in the early going. Starting slow is not unusual for Paxton even when he’s fully fit. Last year, for example, his first-inning ERA was a shocking 9.00.
When Paxton, last year, was struggling in the first inning, he was still able to express very characteristic aspects of his pitching.
So this is what is unique and truly problematic about Paxton’s first start in 2020: he was not at all himself and he showed no promise of returning to himself.
The Usual Paxton vs The Non-Paxton
Typically, Paxton is a hard fastball thrower. He likes to average around 95 or 96 with this pitch and it usually makes up at least 50 percent of his arsenal in a given game.
In his 2020 debut, Paxton — or rather, non-Paxton — threw his fastball with career-low frequency. Only 4.88 percent of his pitches were fastballs
Moreover, his fastball had never been so slow in a regular season contest. Even in his terrible first innings of 2019, he still flashed his characteristic fastball velocity.
It’s normal for pitchers to have games where their velocity is down a bit. Typically, their velocity spikes again in their next outing.
But for Paxton to average four fewer mph in his fastballs than he normally does represents an alarming disparity.
If you look at a graph of his average vertical release points over the years, you will see a tremendous plummet in 2020.
The vertical release points of Paxton’s pitches are lower than they have ever been before.
One may surmise that his velocity is off because he is struggling with his mechanics.
For some reason, he is not comfortable with his delivery.
This discomfort may be magnified by his decision to throw pitches — non-fastballs — with a higher frequency than normal.
But his pitch selection only gauges the surface of his problem because one still has to ask why he isn’t throwing his favorite pitch. He’s almost completely avoiding it.
In general, he left way too many pitches down the middle. His fastball was no different in this respect.
Without the high velocity, without the fastball, with deteriorated accuracy, Paxton is not himself.
Paxton’s departure from himself is probably explained by the back surgery that he endured in February.
He may still be hurting. At all events, he needs time to rediscover himself. He is so far from himself that I really doubt that he can magically turn things around by his next start.
And yet, the Yankees need Paxton because they are having considerable issues in their rotation. So Paxton will be out there and I think he will struggle.
Red Sox Batters vs Lefties
Even if Paxton were to turn things around, Boston looks redoubtable on Sunday due to the match-up.
Currently, Red Sox batters are hitting .311 and slugging .534 against left-handed pitchers. They rank in both categories among baseball’s best.
One lefty-killer is right-handed slugger J.D. Martinez. Martinez is 7-for-17 (.412) with a double, triple, and homer in his career against Paxton.
Xander Bogaerts is slugging .474 in his career against Paxton. Lefty Jackie Bradley Jr. — who is also hot right now -- is doing even better.
Boston’s Pitching Options
It seems likely that Boston will pitch a bullpen game on Sunday.
This means that we should expect Red Sox relievers to pitch who are capable of going multiple innings.
I’m talking about guys like Josh Osich, Matt Hall, and Colten Brewer.
Hall shows just how poor Boston’s bullpen gets when its top guys aren’t fresh. Hall’s career ERA is 10.13.
Osich’s career ERA approaches 5.00 and Brewer gave up two runs in an inning on Friday night against his former club.
New York has a lot of dominant bats waiting to exploit this low-quality pitching. Giancarlo Stanton, for example, currently boasts a .421 BA and 1.384 OPS (on-base plus slugging).
The Verdict
Boston’s pitching options are severely limited in a bullpen game and yet, with glaring deficiencies in terms both of quality and of depth in its rotation, there are no alternatives.
With numerous Yankee sluggers primed to take advantage, it only remains for us to consider whether to take the „over“ or the Yankees.
Because Paxton is so far removed from being Paxton, I want to take the „over.“
I will bet on the „over“ for the first five innings because I want to take advantage of Paxton’s abominable form.
Best Bet: First-Half Over (odds TBA)
Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees
Sunday, August 2, 2020 at 7:08 p.m. ET (ESPN) in Yankee Stadium, the Bronx, New York
Does James Paxton Have A Problem
In his season debut on July 25, James Paxton allowed three runs and five hits in one inning against a Nationals lineup that was missing star Juan Soto.
Let me be clear: I am fully aware that, just because a pitcher lays en egg in one game, it is by no means necessarily decided that he’ll lay another egg in his next game.
What truly concerns me is the way in which Paxton struggled.
It’s not just that he struggled in the early going. Starting slow is not unusual for Paxton even when he’s fully fit. Last year, for example, his first-inning ERA was a shocking 9.00.
When Paxton, last year, was struggling in the first inning, he was still able to express very characteristic aspects of his pitching.
So this is what is unique and truly problematic about Paxton’s first start in 2020: he was not at all himself and he showed no promise of returning to himself.
The Usual Paxton vs The Non-Paxton
Typically, Paxton is a hard fastball thrower. He likes to average around 95 or 96 with this pitch and it usually makes up at least 50 percent of his arsenal in a given game.
In his 2020 debut, Paxton — or rather, non-Paxton — threw his fastball with career-low frequency. Only 4.88 percent of his pitches were fastballs
Moreover, his fastball had never been so slow in a regular season contest. Even in his terrible first innings of 2019, he still flashed his characteristic fastball velocity.
It’s normal for pitchers to have games where their velocity is down a bit. Typically, their velocity spikes again in their next outing.
But for Paxton to average four fewer mph in his fastballs than he normally does represents an alarming disparity.
If you look at a graph of his average vertical release points over the years, you will see a tremendous plummet in 2020.
The vertical release points of Paxton’s pitches are lower than they have ever been before.
One may surmise that his velocity is off because he is struggling with his mechanics.
For some reason, he is not comfortable with his delivery.
This discomfort may be magnified by his decision to throw pitches — non-fastballs — with a higher frequency than normal.
But his pitch selection only gauges the surface of his problem because one still has to ask why he isn’t throwing his favorite pitch. He’s almost completely avoiding it.
In general, he left way too many pitches down the middle. His fastball was no different in this respect.
Without the high velocity, without the fastball, with deteriorated accuracy, Paxton is not himself.
Paxton’s departure from himself is probably explained by the back surgery that he endured in February.
He may still be hurting. At all events, he needs time to rediscover himself. He is so far from himself that I really doubt that he can magically turn things around by his next start.
And yet, the Yankees need Paxton because they are having considerable issues in their rotation. So Paxton will be out there and I think he will struggle.
Red Sox Batters vs Lefties
Even if Paxton were to turn things around, Boston looks redoubtable on Sunday due to the match-up.
Currently, Red Sox batters are hitting .311 and slugging .534 against left-handed pitchers. They rank in both categories among baseball’s best.
One lefty-killer is right-handed slugger J.D. Martinez. Martinez is 7-for-17 (.412) with a double, triple, and homer in his career against Paxton.
Xander Bogaerts is slugging .474 in his career against Paxton. Lefty Jackie Bradley Jr. — who is also hot right now -- is doing even better.
Boston’s Pitching Options
It seems likely that Boston will pitch a bullpen game on Sunday.
This means that we should expect Red Sox relievers to pitch who are capable of going multiple innings.
I’m talking about guys like Josh Osich, Matt Hall, and Colten Brewer.
Hall shows just how poor Boston’s bullpen gets when its top guys aren’t fresh. Hall’s career ERA is 10.13.
Osich’s career ERA approaches 5.00 and Brewer gave up two runs in an inning on Friday night against his former club.
New York has a lot of dominant bats waiting to exploit this low-quality pitching. Giancarlo Stanton, for example, currently boasts a .421 BA and 1.384 OPS (on-base plus slugging).
The Verdict
Boston’s pitching options are severely limited in a bullpen game and yet, with glaring deficiencies in terms both of quality and of depth in its rotation, there are no alternatives.
With numerous Yankee sluggers primed to take advantage, it only remains for us to consider whether to take the „over“ or the Yankees.
Because Paxton is so far removed from being Paxton, I want to take the „over.“
I will bet on the „over“ for the first five innings because I want to take advantage of Paxton’s abominable form.
Best Bet: First-Half Over (odds TBA)
