Red Sox vs. Yankees Sunday Night Baseball Preview and Best Bet
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees
Sunday, July 18, 2021 at 7 p.m. ET (ESPN) at Bronx, New York
Martin Perez
Boston starter Martin Perez is coming off an awful outing in which he didn't survive four innings against the Phillies. He allowed three earned runs in 3.2 innings.
Pattern-wise, Perez's bad performances tend to come in pairs. For example, after he allowed six runs to Houston on July 8, he surrendered five to Toronto five days later.
Regarding his arsenal, Perez favors most of all his sinker, cutter, and change-up. He throws each pitch from 24 to 31.1 percent of the time.
In terms of which pitch he throws more often in a given outing, he'll vary.
Because Perez is flexible in terms of which pitch he'll throw more often, it may seem like he should benefit from being able to figure out which of his three primary pitches is working for him.
But he takes a long time to figure out what is working for him. So if he is able to go deep into an outing, he'll usually improve. But his FIP (like ERA, but factors out fielding) is at its highest -- at 5.73 -- when he faces the opposing lineup for the first time (as opposed to the second or third time) in a game.
Because of Perez's tendency to struggle rather earlier in an outing, we'll want to go against him with a first-half betting play instead of a full-game one.
Perez vs. Yankee Batters
Perez is in an awful spot today not simply because his bad performances tend to come in pairs.
Yankee Stadium is his least favorite venue by far. As measured by ERA, it is his worst one to pitch in.
In two career starts at Yankee Stadium, Perez is 0-2 with an 11.25 ERA.
He made both of those starts in recent years with one coming as a member of the Red Sox and the other as a member of Texas.
Active Yankee batters have accumulated 57 at-bats against Perez. They are hitting .281 and slugging .491 against him.
Watch out, for example, for Giancarlo Stanton, who is 4-for-8 (.500) with two homers in his career against Boston's southpaw.
Jameson Taillon's Situation
Yankee starter Jameson Taillon seems, on the surface, to be coming off a stronger outing than Perez.
However, the 3.00 ERA that he allowed in his last start was lucky from a statistical standpoint.
In that game, he yielded a .067 BABIP (batting average of balls in play) despite allowing a lower soft contact rate than his season average.
The extra rest that he's getting for this game won't help him, either, because his career ERA with six or more days of rest is 0.89 higher than it is with five.
Taillon Breakdown
Taillon, like Perez, primarily throws three pitches. Taillon mostly favors his fastball, slider, and curveball.
Still, Taillon has less variety in his repertoire than Perez in the sense that Taillon leans more heavily on a single pitch. Taillon, namely, throws his fastball nearly half the time.
What really hurts Taillon is the lack of active spin in this pitch.
A lower active spin rate means that Taillon is wasting energy when he throws this pitch and failing to achieve much deception with it.
Opposing batters have hit eight homers against this pitch alone because Taillon will miss his spots with his fastball without having the active spin rate to fool batters.
Taillon vs. Red Sox Batters
I like Red Sox batters today especially because they match up well against Taillon.
They rank fifth in slugging .439 against his three favorite pitches from righties.
Active Red Sox batters haven't faced Taillon that much. But their results so far are very promising.
Alex Verdugo, for example, is 2-for-3 (.667) against Taillon while Hunter Renfroe is 4-for-8 (.500) against him.
The Verdict
Perez is in an awful spot and an awful venue for him as he faces Yankee batters who, like their Boston counterparts, have achieved a track record that shows their readiness to thrive today.
Best Bet: First-Half Over 5 at -125 with Bovada
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees
Sunday, July 18, 2021 at 7 p.m. ET (ESPN) at Bronx, New York
Martin Perez
Boston starter Martin Perez is coming off an awful outing in which he didn't survive four innings against the Phillies. He allowed three earned runs in 3.2 innings.
Pattern-wise, Perez's bad performances tend to come in pairs. For example, after he allowed six runs to Houston on July 8, he surrendered five to Toronto five days later.
Regarding his arsenal, Perez favors most of all his sinker, cutter, and change-up. He throws each pitch from 24 to 31.1 percent of the time.
In terms of which pitch he throws more often in a given outing, he'll vary.
Because Perez is flexible in terms of which pitch he'll throw more often, it may seem like he should benefit from being able to figure out which of his three primary pitches is working for him.
But he takes a long time to figure out what is working for him. So if he is able to go deep into an outing, he'll usually improve. But his FIP (like ERA, but factors out fielding) is at its highest -- at 5.73 -- when he faces the opposing lineup for the first time (as opposed to the second or third time) in a game.
Because of Perez's tendency to struggle rather earlier in an outing, we'll want to go against him with a first-half betting play instead of a full-game one.
Perez vs. Yankee Batters
Perez is in an awful spot today not simply because his bad performances tend to come in pairs.
Yankee Stadium is his least favorite venue by far. As measured by ERA, it is his worst one to pitch in.
In two career starts at Yankee Stadium, Perez is 0-2 with an 11.25 ERA.
He made both of those starts in recent years with one coming as a member of the Red Sox and the other as a member of Texas.
Active Yankee batters have accumulated 57 at-bats against Perez. They are hitting .281 and slugging .491 against him.
Watch out, for example, for Giancarlo Stanton, who is 4-for-8 (.500) with two homers in his career against Boston's southpaw.
Jameson Taillon's Situation
Yankee starter Jameson Taillon seems, on the surface, to be coming off a stronger outing than Perez.
However, the 3.00 ERA that he allowed in his last start was lucky from a statistical standpoint.
In that game, he yielded a .067 BABIP (batting average of balls in play) despite allowing a lower soft contact rate than his season average.
The extra rest that he's getting for this game won't help him, either, because his career ERA with six or more days of rest is 0.89 higher than it is with five.
Taillon Breakdown
Taillon, like Perez, primarily throws three pitches. Taillon mostly favors his fastball, slider, and curveball.
Still, Taillon has less variety in his repertoire than Perez in the sense that Taillon leans more heavily on a single pitch. Taillon, namely, throws his fastball nearly half the time.
What really hurts Taillon is the lack of active spin in this pitch.
A lower active spin rate means that Taillon is wasting energy when he throws this pitch and failing to achieve much deception with it.
Opposing batters have hit eight homers against this pitch alone because Taillon will miss his spots with his fastball without having the active spin rate to fool batters.
Taillon vs. Red Sox Batters
I like Red Sox batters today especially because they match up well against Taillon.
They rank fifth in slugging .439 against his three favorite pitches from righties.
Active Red Sox batters haven't faced Taillon that much. But their results so far are very promising.
Alex Verdugo, for example, is 2-for-3 (.667) against Taillon while Hunter Renfroe is 4-for-8 (.500) against him.
The Verdict
Perez is in an awful spot and an awful venue for him as he faces Yankee batters who, like their Boston counterparts, have achieved a track record that shows their readiness to thrive today.
Best Bet: First-Half Over 5 at -125 with Bovada
