Red Sox vs Yankees: MLB Picks and Predictions
Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees
Sunday, August 16, 2020 at 7 p.m. ET (ESPN) at Yankee Stadium
Boston’s Current Losing Streak
While a team’s personnel changes everyday — at the very least, a new pitcher will start — I think that team rhythm is an important handicapping factor.
Pitchers obviously still form a part of their team and Boston’s pitchers are, collectively, getting hammered.
Right now, the Red Sox are suffering a six-game losing streak. They have allowed eight runs or more in each game. On Thursday, they even allowed 17 runs.
In terms of ERA, Boston’s starters are the second-worst in baseball. Their collective ERA is 6.46, almost as bad as Detroit’s.
Its bullpen has not fared better. The Red Sox relievers own the eighth-worst combined ERA.
Yankees On Fire
Unlike Boston, the Yankees have won four in a row. Each victory came by a margin of at least three runs.
Whereas Boston is consistently giving up eight runs or more per game, New York has scored eight runs or more in three of these four wins.
One Yankee hitter to keep an eye on is Clint Frazier. In his past seven days, he’s 4-for-8 (.500) with two doubles and a homer.
Boston’s Pitching Tonight
For Boston, Chris Mazza (0-0, 0.00 ERA) has been announced as tonight’s starter.
Mazza is 30 years-old. But he’s spent the vast majority of his career in the minors.
Last year, he pitched in nine professional games and failed to make a strong professional impression. His ERA was 5.51.
He’s pitched very little this year. While he hasn’t given up any runs, he places himself in precarious positions especially with his high walk rate (6.75 batters walked per nine innings).
Mazza is a reliever. So Boston will pitch a bullpen game tonight.
His inefficiency presents an obstacle to a Boston bullpen that, as one would expect from its high collective ERA, doesn’t have many reliable arms.
In the same vein, one of Boston’s few, top relievers right now, Heath Hembree, may not see the mound tonight.
While Hembree has pitched in consecutive games twice this year, he threw seven pitches or fewer in both of the first games. Last night, he threw 16 pitches. So he won’t be remotely fresh.
The key takeaway is that Boston relies heavily on low-quality relievers who have high ERAs right now — which is why Boston’s bullpen ranks so poorly-- and they will be seeing a lot of tonight’s innings.
Yankees Pitching
J.A. Happ (0-1, 10.29 ERA) will start tonight for the Yankees.
It’s easy to see his ERA and want to run away.
But it’s absolutely rash to draw conclusions after two starts.
In terms of pitch velocity, spin rate, and pitch movement, he is very much the same pitcher as last year.
His mechanics look fine. When a pitcher’s vertical and horizontal release points remain consistent from game to game, it shows that he has a pitch delivery that he can comfortably repeat. This is the case with Happ.
Evidently, there is nothing wrong with Happ, which means that you can forget about his past two games.
Happ vs Red Sox Batters
I really like Happ tonight because of his positive history against Boston.
Active Red Sox batters have seen Happ a lot and they reliably struggle against him.
In 175 combined at-bats, their BA against Happ is .211 and their slugging rate is only .342.
Xander Bogaerts, for example, is 7-for-42 (.167) with more strikeouts than hits.
Happ has faced 10 different teams at least 10 times.
Of those 10 teams, Boston is the team against which he owns his highest win percentage.
He is 11-4 with a 3.00 ERA in 24 career starts against Boston.
The Verdict
It could be the case that Boston has lost interest in this season.
The Red Sox are almost 10 games below .500 — which is unheard of for them — and multiple games behind the second-worst team in their division, Toronto.
Conversely, the Yankees are in first place and on fire.
While their left-handed starting pitchers have gotten off to a rough start, James Paxton is turning his season around. Happ looks to do the same.
Given his strong history against active Boston batters and against Boston, we should expect a strong performance from him tonight.
Hot Yankee batters will help Happ out by exploiting Boston’s weak bullpen.
Best Bet: Yankees RL (odds TBA)
Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees
Sunday, August 16, 2020 at 7 p.m. ET (ESPN) at Yankee Stadium
Boston’s Current Losing Streak
While a team’s personnel changes everyday — at the very least, a new pitcher will start — I think that team rhythm is an important handicapping factor.
Pitchers obviously still form a part of their team and Boston’s pitchers are, collectively, getting hammered.
Right now, the Red Sox are suffering a six-game losing streak. They have allowed eight runs or more in each game. On Thursday, they even allowed 17 runs.
In terms of ERA, Boston’s starters are the second-worst in baseball. Their collective ERA is 6.46, almost as bad as Detroit’s.
Its bullpen has not fared better. The Red Sox relievers own the eighth-worst combined ERA.
Yankees On Fire
Unlike Boston, the Yankees have won four in a row. Each victory came by a margin of at least three runs.
Whereas Boston is consistently giving up eight runs or more per game, New York has scored eight runs or more in three of these four wins.
One Yankee hitter to keep an eye on is Clint Frazier. In his past seven days, he’s 4-for-8 (.500) with two doubles and a homer.
Boston’s Pitching Tonight
For Boston, Chris Mazza (0-0, 0.00 ERA) has been announced as tonight’s starter.
Mazza is 30 years-old. But he’s spent the vast majority of his career in the minors.
Last year, he pitched in nine professional games and failed to make a strong professional impression. His ERA was 5.51.
He’s pitched very little this year. While he hasn’t given up any runs, he places himself in precarious positions especially with his high walk rate (6.75 batters walked per nine innings).
Mazza is a reliever. So Boston will pitch a bullpen game tonight.
His inefficiency presents an obstacle to a Boston bullpen that, as one would expect from its high collective ERA, doesn’t have many reliable arms.
In the same vein, one of Boston’s few, top relievers right now, Heath Hembree, may not see the mound tonight.
While Hembree has pitched in consecutive games twice this year, he threw seven pitches or fewer in both of the first games. Last night, he threw 16 pitches. So he won’t be remotely fresh.
The key takeaway is that Boston relies heavily on low-quality relievers who have high ERAs right now — which is why Boston’s bullpen ranks so poorly-- and they will be seeing a lot of tonight’s innings.
Yankees Pitching
J.A. Happ (0-1, 10.29 ERA) will start tonight for the Yankees.
It’s easy to see his ERA and want to run away.
But it’s absolutely rash to draw conclusions after two starts.
In terms of pitch velocity, spin rate, and pitch movement, he is very much the same pitcher as last year.
His mechanics look fine. When a pitcher’s vertical and horizontal release points remain consistent from game to game, it shows that he has a pitch delivery that he can comfortably repeat. This is the case with Happ.
Evidently, there is nothing wrong with Happ, which means that you can forget about his past two games.
Happ vs Red Sox Batters
I really like Happ tonight because of his positive history against Boston.
Active Red Sox batters have seen Happ a lot and they reliably struggle against him.
In 175 combined at-bats, their BA against Happ is .211 and their slugging rate is only .342.
Xander Bogaerts, for example, is 7-for-42 (.167) with more strikeouts than hits.
Happ has faced 10 different teams at least 10 times.
Of those 10 teams, Boston is the team against which he owns his highest win percentage.
He is 11-4 with a 3.00 ERA in 24 career starts against Boston.
The Verdict
It could be the case that Boston has lost interest in this season.
The Red Sox are almost 10 games below .500 — which is unheard of for them — and multiple games behind the second-worst team in their division, Toronto.
Conversely, the Yankees are in first place and on fire.
While their left-handed starting pitchers have gotten off to a rough start, James Paxton is turning his season around. Happ looks to do the same.
Given his strong history against active Boston batters and against Boston, we should expect a strong performance from him tonight.
Hot Yankee batters will help Happ out by exploiting Boston’s weak bullpen.
Best Bet: Yankees RL (odds TBA)
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