Pitchers Stated to Struggle in Yankees-Red Sox Clash Friday
Boston hosts rival New York on Friday at 7:10 ET. Both starters have double-digit win totals, but neither one will pitch well enough to deserve a win.
Yankees at Red Sox
MLB Pick: 1H Over
Yankee Luis Severino's (14-4, 2.94 ERA) ERA is deceiving. A pitcher’s overall performance means little compared to current form. Severino has allowed 19 runs in his past four starts, in each of which he’s lasted no more than five innings and in each of which his ERA and FIP (like ERA, but factors out luck) were over 5.00. He struggled even though only one of his last four opponents ranks in the top half in runs per game. Boston ranks first in the category.
Severino relies on his fastball half the time and a slider with 37% frequency. He isn’t afraid to challenge hitters with his fastball. It’s second most frequent pitch location is dead middle of the zone. Severino’s fastball can escape damage with its average 95 mph velocity and high spin rate, which gives it the appearance of rising. He trusts his fastball in all scenarios, but features his high-velo slider more with two strikes. Opponents bat .171 against his slider, which he used to locate more effectively and keep it down in the zone. But three of his last four opponents have crushed his slider, which he’s leaving with over two percent additional frequency dead middle and otherwise elevating more often to where it’s vulnerable.
Boston’s top hitters, besides J.D. Martinez, have been struggling. But they’ve also faced the likes of Minnesota’s Jose Berrios and Philadelphia’s top two pitchers, Aaron Nola and Jake Arrieta. When Severino last visited Boston, he allowed five runs with a high amount of line drives and little soft contact. Severino has yielded above his season average in hard contact in three of his last four starts. In the other start, he allowed a 40% line drive rate. Besides poor location, Severino has had the misfortune of facing teams who rank strongly against high velocity. Two of Severino’s last opponents, Kansas City and Cleveland, rank in the top four in slugging against the high-velo (95-100 mph) fastball. Boston ranks fifth in the category and 9th in slugging against the high-velo (87-92 mph) slider. Boston is metrically underachieving in both categories. Watch for J.D. Martinez, who slugs .618 against the high-velo fastball.
<iframe width="560" height="315" src="
" frameborder="0" allow="autoplay; encrypted-media" allowfullscreen></iframe>
Boston’s Rick Porcello (13-4, 4.03 ERA) shows misleading form. Two of his last four starts were great, but they came against the worst lineups in baseball, Baltimore and KC, on the road. In each of his last three home starts, he’s allowed at least four runs. He’s conceded five homers in them, which is problematic because the Yanks rank first in homers per game.
On the season, Porcello has focused on his sinker and slider. But lately, he’s emphasized his fastball as often, which is worrisome because the Yanks rank third in slugging against the fastball. Unlike Severino, he relies on his pitches having similar release points in order to deceive the batter, pitch sequencing, and good location. His location has suffered. Compared to his season average, his pitches are landing dead middle with almost two percent more frequency. The rates at which he starts the batter off with a strike and places his pitches in the zone are down. Moreover, his fastball and sinker have less horizontal movement, his pitches have lost meaningful velocity and spin, and opponents are chasing his stuff less frequently.
Porcello was great against the Yanks at home, but that was in April during his amazing start to the season. For comparison’s sake, in April, he allowed three runs in seven innings in Toronto. But in July he allowed eight runs in two innings against the same team.
The top Yankee hitters have been struggling— Miguel Andujar and Didi Gregorius in terms of extra-base hits and Giancarlo Stanton. But they’ve still scored at least five runs in their past six games. Brett Gardner is 16-for-52 (.308) with five doubles and two homers against Porcello.
Boston hosts rival New York on Friday at 7:10 ET. Both starters have double-digit win totals, but neither one will pitch well enough to deserve a win.
Yankees at Red Sox
MLB Pick: 1H Over
Yankee Luis Severino's (14-4, 2.94 ERA) ERA is deceiving. A pitcher’s overall performance means little compared to current form. Severino has allowed 19 runs in his past four starts, in each of which he’s lasted no more than five innings and in each of which his ERA and FIP (like ERA, but factors out luck) were over 5.00. He struggled even though only one of his last four opponents ranks in the top half in runs per game. Boston ranks first in the category.
Severino relies on his fastball half the time and a slider with 37% frequency. He isn’t afraid to challenge hitters with his fastball. It’s second most frequent pitch location is dead middle of the zone. Severino’s fastball can escape damage with its average 95 mph velocity and high spin rate, which gives it the appearance of rising. He trusts his fastball in all scenarios, but features his high-velo slider more with two strikes. Opponents bat .171 against his slider, which he used to locate more effectively and keep it down in the zone. But three of his last four opponents have crushed his slider, which he’s leaving with over two percent additional frequency dead middle and otherwise elevating more often to where it’s vulnerable.
Boston’s top hitters, besides J.D. Martinez, have been struggling. But they’ve also faced the likes of Minnesota’s Jose Berrios and Philadelphia’s top two pitchers, Aaron Nola and Jake Arrieta. When Severino last visited Boston, he allowed five runs with a high amount of line drives and little soft contact. Severino has yielded above his season average in hard contact in three of his last four starts. In the other start, he allowed a 40% line drive rate. Besides poor location, Severino has had the misfortune of facing teams who rank strongly against high velocity. Two of Severino’s last opponents, Kansas City and Cleveland, rank in the top four in slugging against the high-velo (95-100 mph) fastball. Boston ranks fifth in the category and 9th in slugging against the high-velo (87-92 mph) slider. Boston is metrically underachieving in both categories. Watch for J.D. Martinez, who slugs .618 against the high-velo fastball.
<iframe width="560" height="315" src="
Boston’s Rick Porcello (13-4, 4.03 ERA) shows misleading form. Two of his last four starts were great, but they came against the worst lineups in baseball, Baltimore and KC, on the road. In each of his last three home starts, he’s allowed at least four runs. He’s conceded five homers in them, which is problematic because the Yanks rank first in homers per game.
On the season, Porcello has focused on his sinker and slider. But lately, he’s emphasized his fastball as often, which is worrisome because the Yanks rank third in slugging against the fastball. Unlike Severino, he relies on his pitches having similar release points in order to deceive the batter, pitch sequencing, and good location. His location has suffered. Compared to his season average, his pitches are landing dead middle with almost two percent more frequency. The rates at which he starts the batter off with a strike and places his pitches in the zone are down. Moreover, his fastball and sinker have less horizontal movement, his pitches have lost meaningful velocity and spin, and opponents are chasing his stuff less frequently.
Porcello was great against the Yanks at home, but that was in April during his amazing start to the season. For comparison’s sake, in April, he allowed three runs in seven innings in Toronto. But in July he allowed eight runs in two innings against the same team.
The top Yankee hitters have been struggling— Miguel Andujar and Didi Gregorius in terms of extra-base hits and Giancarlo Stanton. But they’ve still scored at least five runs in their past six games. Brett Gardner is 16-for-52 (.308) with five doubles and two homers against Porcello.
