Red Sox Won’t Keep Pace With Tigers in Primetime Finale
The Red Sox will try to sweep Detroit at 7 ET on ESPN. The hometown of Eminem enjoys a decisive pitching advantage that gives it underdog value.
Detroit Tigers (29-34) at Boston Red Sox (43-19)
MLB Pick: Detroit 1H
Southpaw Matt Boyd (3-4, 3.23 ERA) shows significant growth in his fourth year, dropping his FIP (like ERA, but factors out luck) from 4.53 last season to 3.85 this season. In 2015, he used to rely primarily on his fastball, until opponents began slamming it because they could sit on it. In the ensuing years, he focused on reducing his fastball usage and developing higher-quality secondary stuff in order to keep hitters off-balance. This season, he’s throwing his fastball with 22% lower frequency than in 2015 and has discovered a second primary pitch, the slider, which he throws as often as his fastball and twice as often as in any season prior. Despite his increased slider usage, opponents are slugging a career-low .200 against it. His slider velocity has dropped significantly, creating a greater velocity differential between his two primary pitches which throws hitters off-balance. Moreover, he’s reduced his slider's vertical movement so that it’s harder for batters to track.
Boyd matches up well with Boston, which ranks 29th in slugging the fastball and slider from lefties. In the past week they rank 29th in the category and last against lefties overall. Mookie Betts is still on the DL.
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Boston is forced to rely on southpaw Jalen Beeks, (0-0, 0.00 ERA) who will make his MLB debut after initially scheduled starter Drew Pomeranz hit the DL.
According to scouting reports, Beeks is expected to end up in the bullpen because he’s undersized. His delivery isn’t clean, particularly because, when his front foot steps forward, his arm lags behind, so that it carries extra stress in an effort to locate the pitch and discourages a consistent delivery. So he struggles with command and tires and loses velocity throughout a start. Both of these struggles explain his problematic 13.7% ratio of homers to fly balls and his inconsistency from outing to outing. He’s liable to walk a lot of batters or leave pitches over the heart of the plate. Another reason for his inconsistency is his difficulty in developing a decent third pitch. His curveball is considered potentially average. It can occasionally help to keep hitters off-balance, but it’s not a reliable strike or whiff pitch and he’s really struggled when it’s not working for him.
Bettors should always look for underdog value in Detroit against a southpaw. They’re yielding +6.7 units against lefty starters and +7.2 units as underdogs and are facing a southpaw who is pitching tonight rather out of necessity than by Boston’s choice. The Tigers haven’t seen him before, but his stuff isn’t going to surprise them, which is why he struggled in his Double A and Triple A debuts. Beeks needs time to adapt his command and quality of stuff to higher-level expectations and even if he were ready, he faces a tough match-up. Beeks is a strikeout pitcher, but it’s tough to blow pitches past the Tigers, who rank fifth in zone contact percentage and boast the second-lowest strikeout percentage against southpaws. They rank fourth in slugging against lefties both overall and in the past month and against the fastball and cutter — Beeks’ two favorite pitches — thrown by lefties.
Nick Castellanos is red-hot. He's batting .441 in his past seven days and .458 against lefties. Jose Iglesias is slugging .450 in his past seven days and .541 against lefties.
I’ll chalk it up with the 1H RL. If I can find it at -110 or cheaper, I prefer doing that instead of ML, but that’s a matter of personal preference.
The Red Sox will try to sweep Detroit at 7 ET on ESPN. The hometown of Eminem enjoys a decisive pitching advantage that gives it underdog value.
Detroit Tigers (29-34) at Boston Red Sox (43-19)
MLB Pick: Detroit 1H
Southpaw Matt Boyd (3-4, 3.23 ERA) shows significant growth in his fourth year, dropping his FIP (like ERA, but factors out luck) from 4.53 last season to 3.85 this season. In 2015, he used to rely primarily on his fastball, until opponents began slamming it because they could sit on it. In the ensuing years, he focused on reducing his fastball usage and developing higher-quality secondary stuff in order to keep hitters off-balance. This season, he’s throwing his fastball with 22% lower frequency than in 2015 and has discovered a second primary pitch, the slider, which he throws as often as his fastball and twice as often as in any season prior. Despite his increased slider usage, opponents are slugging a career-low .200 against it. His slider velocity has dropped significantly, creating a greater velocity differential between his two primary pitches which throws hitters off-balance. Moreover, he’s reduced his slider's vertical movement so that it’s harder for batters to track.
Boyd matches up well with Boston, which ranks 29th in slugging the fastball and slider from lefties. In the past week they rank 29th in the category and last against lefties overall. Mookie Betts is still on the DL.
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Boston is forced to rely on southpaw Jalen Beeks, (0-0, 0.00 ERA) who will make his MLB debut after initially scheduled starter Drew Pomeranz hit the DL.
According to scouting reports, Beeks is expected to end up in the bullpen because he’s undersized. His delivery isn’t clean, particularly because, when his front foot steps forward, his arm lags behind, so that it carries extra stress in an effort to locate the pitch and discourages a consistent delivery. So he struggles with command and tires and loses velocity throughout a start. Both of these struggles explain his problematic 13.7% ratio of homers to fly balls and his inconsistency from outing to outing. He’s liable to walk a lot of batters or leave pitches over the heart of the plate. Another reason for his inconsistency is his difficulty in developing a decent third pitch. His curveball is considered potentially average. It can occasionally help to keep hitters off-balance, but it’s not a reliable strike or whiff pitch and he’s really struggled when it’s not working for him.
Bettors should always look for underdog value in Detroit against a southpaw. They’re yielding +6.7 units against lefty starters and +7.2 units as underdogs and are facing a southpaw who is pitching tonight rather out of necessity than by Boston’s choice. The Tigers haven’t seen him before, but his stuff isn’t going to surprise them, which is why he struggled in his Double A and Triple A debuts. Beeks needs time to adapt his command and quality of stuff to higher-level expectations and even if he were ready, he faces a tough match-up. Beeks is a strikeout pitcher, but it’s tough to blow pitches past the Tigers, who rank fifth in zone contact percentage and boast the second-lowest strikeout percentage against southpaws. They rank fourth in slugging against lefties both overall and in the past month and against the fastball and cutter — Beeks’ two favorite pitches — thrown by lefties.
Nick Castellanos is red-hot. He's batting .441 in his past seven days and .458 against lefties. Jose Iglesias is slugging .450 in his past seven days and .541 against lefties.
I’ll chalk it up with the 1H RL. If I can find it at -110 or cheaper, I prefer doing that instead of ML, but that’s a matter of personal preference.
