Red Sox vs. Rays: Best MLB Bets
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Thursday, September 10, 2020 at 6:40 p.m. ET at Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, Florida
Mike Kickham
By all appearances, Boston is following a bullpen approach to tonight’s game.
Mike Kickham (1-0, 5.40 ERA), though, is by no means a one-inning reliever.
This year, he’s pitched a combined total of five innings in two games. But in both games, he came out of the bullpen.
He has history as a starting pitcher. Last year, for example, when he was still in Triple A, his longest outing lasted seven innings.
So Kickham is very much somebody who can eat up a lot of innings for Boston.
For my first-five wager for today, i’m going to regard Kickham as a starter who lasts (at least) five innings.
Kickham Breakdown
Kickham is not somebody who wants to blow opponents away with high-velocity stuff.
But be avails himself of other methods in order to delay hitters’ reaction time.
His two primary pitches are his cutter and curveball. Both pitches combine to make up almost 84 percent of his pitching arsenal.
He keeps the average vertical and horizontal release points of both pitches very similar.
As a result, his release of each pitch looks similar and batters struggle to discern which pitch is leaving his hand. This struggle causes a delayed reaction in their swing.
This struggle will be exacerbated by how different each pitch is. The measured disparity between both primary pitches forces batters to make a larger (and also later) adjustment in their swing.
For starters, the velocity differential between both pitches is notable. If batters expect an 85 mph cutter, they may be thrown off-balance by a curveball that averages seven fewer mph.
Likewise, Kickham’s curveball shows vastly stronger vertical and horizontal movement.
Kickham vs. Rays Batters
I expect Tampa Bay batters to struggle today because they rank 24th in slugging a very paltry .306 against Kickham’s two favorite pitches from lefties.
Expect Willy Adames to struggle. His high BA is rather a reflection of earlier portions of the season. Right now, he has a total of two hits in Tampa Bay’s past five games.
Josh Fleming
Unlike his Boston counterpart, Tampa Bay southpaw Josh Fleming (3-0, 3.52 ERA) is a regular starter. He’s lasted five innings in all three of his starts this season.
Like Kickham, Fleming very much has two primary options. His sinker and slider combine to make up about 87 percent of his arsenal.
Fleming vs Red Sox Batters: Plate Discipline
A crucial aspect of Fleming’s pitching style is that he is a plate-nibbler.
Pitching charts show that Fleming lives on the borders of the strike zone.
Whereas Kickham relies more on spin, Fleming leans more on the horizontal movement of his pitches.
Fleming’s strong pitch movement exacerbates the difficulty that batters have in trying to determine whether to swing or not.
They have a hard time figuring out whether Fleming’s pitches will land inside or outside of the strike zone.
So Fleming has benefited from facing teams that rank poorly in plate discipline. Lineups that don’t have a good eye are going to struggle with Fleming’s border approach.
When Fleming first played the Marlins, they mustered all of three hits and zero runs in 5.1 innings.
Like the Marlins, Boston ranks bottom-five in swing percentage at pitches outside the zone. They aren’t good at taking would-be balls.
The Trop
Tonight’s venue is noteworthy because last year, with a much stronger offense, Boston’s lineup struggled more at Tropicana Field than at many other venues.
Overall, Boston hit .240 at this venue. This number was as high as it was because Red Sox righties slugged .415 here, which was still .51 points lower than the team's overall slugging rate.
The thing is: the right-handed portion of Boston’s lineup has regressed significantly in terms of quality and success.
Last year, Red Sox righties slugged a collective .477. This year, that number is .441.
So, Boston righties aren’t as threatening. Plus, its lefties only hit .215 and slugged .398 at the Trop.
Boston’s batting numbers at Tropicana will continue to be much worse than they are overall. Hence, tonight presents a good opportunity to fade Boston batters.
Fleming vs. Boston Batters: Match-Up
Regardless of venue, I also dislike Red Sox batters today because they rank below-average against Fleming’s favorite pitches, the sinker and slider.
Besides the departure of Mookie Betts, Boston’s righty batting numbers are down because of J.D. Martinez’s regression.
His BA is currently .216 and he remains almost non-existent in September.
The Verdict
I have broken down two relatively unknown starters. Don’t overlook either one as they each possess decisive match-up advantages against their opposing lineup.
Best Bet: First-Five Under (Odds TBA)
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Thursday, September 10, 2020 at 6:40 p.m. ET at Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, Florida
Mike Kickham
By all appearances, Boston is following a bullpen approach to tonight’s game.
Mike Kickham (1-0, 5.40 ERA), though, is by no means a one-inning reliever.
This year, he’s pitched a combined total of five innings in two games. But in both games, he came out of the bullpen.
He has history as a starting pitcher. Last year, for example, when he was still in Triple A, his longest outing lasted seven innings.
So Kickham is very much somebody who can eat up a lot of innings for Boston.
For my first-five wager for today, i’m going to regard Kickham as a starter who lasts (at least) five innings.
Kickham Breakdown
Kickham is not somebody who wants to blow opponents away with high-velocity stuff.
But be avails himself of other methods in order to delay hitters’ reaction time.
His two primary pitches are his cutter and curveball. Both pitches combine to make up almost 84 percent of his pitching arsenal.
He keeps the average vertical and horizontal release points of both pitches very similar.
As a result, his release of each pitch looks similar and batters struggle to discern which pitch is leaving his hand. This struggle causes a delayed reaction in their swing.
This struggle will be exacerbated by how different each pitch is. The measured disparity between both primary pitches forces batters to make a larger (and also later) adjustment in their swing.
For starters, the velocity differential between both pitches is notable. If batters expect an 85 mph cutter, they may be thrown off-balance by a curveball that averages seven fewer mph.
Likewise, Kickham’s curveball shows vastly stronger vertical and horizontal movement.
Kickham vs. Rays Batters
I expect Tampa Bay batters to struggle today because they rank 24th in slugging a very paltry .306 against Kickham’s two favorite pitches from lefties.
Expect Willy Adames to struggle. His high BA is rather a reflection of earlier portions of the season. Right now, he has a total of two hits in Tampa Bay’s past five games.
Josh Fleming
Unlike his Boston counterpart, Tampa Bay southpaw Josh Fleming (3-0, 3.52 ERA) is a regular starter. He’s lasted five innings in all three of his starts this season.
Like Kickham, Fleming very much has two primary options. His sinker and slider combine to make up about 87 percent of his arsenal.
Fleming vs Red Sox Batters: Plate Discipline
A crucial aspect of Fleming’s pitching style is that he is a plate-nibbler.
Pitching charts show that Fleming lives on the borders of the strike zone.
Whereas Kickham relies more on spin, Fleming leans more on the horizontal movement of his pitches.
Fleming’s strong pitch movement exacerbates the difficulty that batters have in trying to determine whether to swing or not.
They have a hard time figuring out whether Fleming’s pitches will land inside or outside of the strike zone.
So Fleming has benefited from facing teams that rank poorly in plate discipline. Lineups that don’t have a good eye are going to struggle with Fleming’s border approach.
When Fleming first played the Marlins, they mustered all of three hits and zero runs in 5.1 innings.
Like the Marlins, Boston ranks bottom-five in swing percentage at pitches outside the zone. They aren’t good at taking would-be balls.
The Trop
Tonight’s venue is noteworthy because last year, with a much stronger offense, Boston’s lineup struggled more at Tropicana Field than at many other venues.
Overall, Boston hit .240 at this venue. This number was as high as it was because Red Sox righties slugged .415 here, which was still .51 points lower than the team's overall slugging rate.
The thing is: the right-handed portion of Boston’s lineup has regressed significantly in terms of quality and success.
Last year, Red Sox righties slugged a collective .477. This year, that number is .441.
So, Boston righties aren’t as threatening. Plus, its lefties only hit .215 and slugged .398 at the Trop.
Boston’s batting numbers at Tropicana will continue to be much worse than they are overall. Hence, tonight presents a good opportunity to fade Boston batters.
Fleming vs. Boston Batters: Match-Up
Regardless of venue, I also dislike Red Sox batters today because they rank below-average against Fleming’s favorite pitches, the sinker and slider.
Besides the departure of Mookie Betts, Boston’s righty batting numbers are down because of J.D. Martinez’s regression.
His BA is currently .216 and he remains almost non-existent in September.
The Verdict
I have broken down two relatively unknown starters. Don’t overlook either one as they each possess decisive match-up advantages against their opposing lineup.
Best Bet: First-Five Under (Odds TBA)
