Rays vs. Red Sox ALDS Game 3 Odds, Preview, and Prediction
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox
Sunday, October 10, 2021 at 4:07 p.m. ET at Fenway Park in Boston
Nathan Eovaldi
Red Sox starter Nathan Eovaldi is already off to a strong beginning this postseason.
In the Wild Card game against the Yankees, he helped lead Boston to victory by allowing one earned run in 5.1 innings.
Unlike his Tampa Bay counterpart, Eovaldi boasts a meaningful level of variety in his pitching arsenal.
He doesn't throw a single pitch more than 42.3 percent of the time.
Similar to his Tampa Bay counterpart, his favorite pitch is the 4-seam fastball.
This pitch's greatest virtue is arguably its velocity. It ranks in the 86th percentile in the category.
What I like about Eovaldi's pitching arsenal is the way that he plays different pitches off each other.
For example, he likes to follow up his heater with a much slower curveball.
He'll also switch up location, often electing to throw his heater up high in the strike zone before locating his curveball around the batter's knees. With this sort of change in location, he changes the batter's eye level.
Thus, Eovaldi keeps the opposing hitter off-balance by creating drastic changes in pace and location.
His best pitch is arguably his curveball. This fact makes him match up uniquely well against the Rays because the curveball is a classic weapon against opposite-handed batters and Tampa Bay is notorious for stocking up on left-handed hitters.
Opponents this season hit a paltry .129 against Eovaldi's curveball. He has yet to give up an extra-base hit when he throws this pitch.
Eovaldi vs. Ray Batters
I wanted to talk a lot about Eovaldi because I really like him today. We will see him put his strengths on full display today.
Eovaldi is uniquely strong at home where, during the regular season, Boston won 65 percent of the games in which he started. At home, his FIP (like ERA, but factors out fielding) was 2.43, compared to 3.39 on the road.
He cannot prove more often that he is well-equipped to handle the Rays at home. In three home starts against them this year, he allowed two earned runs in a combined total of 21 innings.
Expect little from Nelson Cruz, for example, He's 2-for-14 (.143) lifetime against Eovaldi.
Drew Rasmussen
Tampa Bay starter Drew Rasmussen is also known for his fastball and his fastball velocity.
However, he is much more dependent on this single pitch than Eovaldi. He throws his fastball with 65 percent frequency. His second favorite pitch is the slider, which he throws 30 percent of the time.
His extensive concentration on two pitches is unusual because starters will typically develop strong comfort with at least a third pitch in order to keep hitters off-balance during the course of their multiple-inning outings.
Rasmussen vs. Red Sox Batters
Rasmussen's data sample against Boston batters is small. His success against them stems almost entirely from a small stretch in the beginning of September when Boston was barely playing better than .500-ball and was not hitting consistently except when the game was already easily out of reach.
Expect a strong effort from Red Sox hitters today because they rank fourth in slugging .463 against Rasmussen's two favorite pitches from righties combined.
Alex Verdugo, for example, will have a strong outing today. He's 3-for-6 (.500) with a double and a homer in his career against Eovaldi.
The Verdict
With relievers like Ryan Brasier, who hasn't conceded a run in nearly a month, Boston possesses the bullpen power to keep its lead secure.
The Red Sox will lead thanks to their edge in starting pitching and their strong lineup will help keep the game out of reach for Tampa Bay.
Best Bet: Red Sox ML at -102 with BetOnline
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox
Sunday, October 10, 2021 at 4:07 p.m. ET at Fenway Park in Boston
Nathan Eovaldi
Red Sox starter Nathan Eovaldi is already off to a strong beginning this postseason.
In the Wild Card game against the Yankees, he helped lead Boston to victory by allowing one earned run in 5.1 innings.
Unlike his Tampa Bay counterpart, Eovaldi boasts a meaningful level of variety in his pitching arsenal.
He doesn't throw a single pitch more than 42.3 percent of the time.
Similar to his Tampa Bay counterpart, his favorite pitch is the 4-seam fastball.
This pitch's greatest virtue is arguably its velocity. It ranks in the 86th percentile in the category.
What I like about Eovaldi's pitching arsenal is the way that he plays different pitches off each other.
For example, he likes to follow up his heater with a much slower curveball.
He'll also switch up location, often electing to throw his heater up high in the strike zone before locating his curveball around the batter's knees. With this sort of change in location, he changes the batter's eye level.
Thus, Eovaldi keeps the opposing hitter off-balance by creating drastic changes in pace and location.
His best pitch is arguably his curveball. This fact makes him match up uniquely well against the Rays because the curveball is a classic weapon against opposite-handed batters and Tampa Bay is notorious for stocking up on left-handed hitters.
Opponents this season hit a paltry .129 against Eovaldi's curveball. He has yet to give up an extra-base hit when he throws this pitch.
Eovaldi vs. Ray Batters
I wanted to talk a lot about Eovaldi because I really like him today. We will see him put his strengths on full display today.
Eovaldi is uniquely strong at home where, during the regular season, Boston won 65 percent of the games in which he started. At home, his FIP (like ERA, but factors out fielding) was 2.43, compared to 3.39 on the road.
He cannot prove more often that he is well-equipped to handle the Rays at home. In three home starts against them this year, he allowed two earned runs in a combined total of 21 innings.
Expect little from Nelson Cruz, for example, He's 2-for-14 (.143) lifetime against Eovaldi.
Drew Rasmussen
Tampa Bay starter Drew Rasmussen is also known for his fastball and his fastball velocity.
However, he is much more dependent on this single pitch than Eovaldi. He throws his fastball with 65 percent frequency. His second favorite pitch is the slider, which he throws 30 percent of the time.
His extensive concentration on two pitches is unusual because starters will typically develop strong comfort with at least a third pitch in order to keep hitters off-balance during the course of their multiple-inning outings.
Rasmussen vs. Red Sox Batters
Rasmussen's data sample against Boston batters is small. His success against them stems almost entirely from a small stretch in the beginning of September when Boston was barely playing better than .500-ball and was not hitting consistently except when the game was already easily out of reach.
Expect a strong effort from Red Sox hitters today because they rank fourth in slugging .463 against Rasmussen's two favorite pitches from righties combined.
Alex Verdugo, for example, will have a strong outing today. He's 3-for-6 (.500) with a double and a homer in his career against Eovaldi.
The Verdict
With relievers like Ryan Brasier, who hasn't conceded a run in nearly a month, Boston possesses the bullpen power to keep its lead secure.
The Red Sox will lead thanks to their edge in starting pitching and their strong lineup will help keep the game out of reach for Tampa Bay.
Best Bet: Red Sox ML at -102 with BetOnline
