Boston Orchestra Features the Porcello Against Slumping Angels
The red-hot Red Sox host the Angels for the second game of a three-game series at 7:10 ET. Boston looks to continue its positive streak against a team heading in the opposite direction.
Los Angeles Angels (41-39) at Boston Red Sox (53-27)
MLB Pick: Red Sox 1H RL
The Angels are 1-5 in Andrew Heaney's (4-5, 3.43 ERA) road starts, yielding -5.2 units. Heaney tends to not be his usual self away, where his ERA Is 2.95 higher than at home.
Heaney relies on three pitches, the sinker, change-up and curveball. Heaney tries to deceive the opposing batter. His sinker and change-up share similar horizontal and vertical release points. Because his sinker and change-up are so distinct from one another in terms of velocity and horizontal and vertical movement, batters pay the price for taking more time to discern which pitch is approaching them. This deception achieves the same effect as velocity because in both cases batters are struggling to react quickly enough.
Despite Heaney’s deception, only his curveball is really untouchable. He features it against same-handed batters, who struggle to perceive it well. Whereas opponents are slugging over .400 against his sinker and change-up, they’re batting .134 against his curveball and have yet to hit a homer off it. Consequently, I don’t expect much from Boston’s left-handed batters.
The sinker is Heaney’s favorite pitch. He relies on it with 58% frequency against right-handed batters. Against righties, he also emphasizes his change-up particularly with runners in scoring position. Boston ranks 11th in slugging against the sinker from lefties and are the fifth most underachieving lineup against the change-up based on the metric SLG-xSLG.
The Red Sox are hitting lefties again. Last season, they were one of the worst teams in April against lefties. Likewise, they began slowly against them this season, but now rank 14th in slugging against them in June. They’ve dominated their last three southpaws faced, achieving combined 17 runs against Seattle’s James Paxton, Wade LeBlanc and Marco Gonzales. Heaney is less effective against righties, to whom he doesn’t offer his curveball as much. Righties are slugging .505 against Heaney away. Watch for Mookie Betts, who is slugging .780 against southpaws and .650 in the past week. J.D. Martinez is slugging .808 in the past seven days. In the past three years, he is slugging .628 against southpaws and promises to work towards that number. Likewise, Xander Bogaerts is slugging .500 in his past seven days and is underachieving against southpaws relative to his career numbers against southpaws compared to right-handed pitchers and based on the metric SLG-xSLG.
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Rick Porcello (9-3, 3.44 ERA) is continuing his best season in terms of FIP (like ERA, but factors out luck). His biggest improvement was to reduce the number of home runs allowed—he’s done so by more than 50%, compared to last season. He doesn’t leave as many pitches down the middle. In terms of pitches, he’s reduced the opposing slugging percentage against his slider by .159, even though he throws it with 10% more frequency. He improved its velocity and especially started throwing it more against lefties. Overall, his stuff is better, and opponents are chasing his pitches more often even though he isn’t throwing as many strikes, although he’s allowing significantly less hard contact when he does throw strikes.
Porcello is especially dominant at home against righties, against which he is yielding a 2.22 FIP. He therefore matches up well against LA's line-up, which is very righty-heavy. Its top seven regular hitters, in terms of BA, are all right-handed. In their recent slump, the Angels are 3-for-26 against Porcello’s two most frequent pitches, the slider and sinker. Overall, Porcello has a strong history against LA, yielding six runs in three starts against them dating to 2017, in which he lasted at least six innings in each.
LA has lost four in a row, scoring zero or one run in three of those losses. Conversely, Boston has won four out of five, producing nine runs or more in three of those games. Boston’s strong team form will continue tonight.
The red-hot Red Sox host the Angels for the second game of a three-game series at 7:10 ET. Boston looks to continue its positive streak against a team heading in the opposite direction.
Los Angeles Angels (41-39) at Boston Red Sox (53-27)
MLB Pick: Red Sox 1H RL
The Angels are 1-5 in Andrew Heaney's (4-5, 3.43 ERA) road starts, yielding -5.2 units. Heaney tends to not be his usual self away, where his ERA Is 2.95 higher than at home.
Heaney relies on three pitches, the sinker, change-up and curveball. Heaney tries to deceive the opposing batter. His sinker and change-up share similar horizontal and vertical release points. Because his sinker and change-up are so distinct from one another in terms of velocity and horizontal and vertical movement, batters pay the price for taking more time to discern which pitch is approaching them. This deception achieves the same effect as velocity because in both cases batters are struggling to react quickly enough.
Despite Heaney’s deception, only his curveball is really untouchable. He features it against same-handed batters, who struggle to perceive it well. Whereas opponents are slugging over .400 against his sinker and change-up, they’re batting .134 against his curveball and have yet to hit a homer off it. Consequently, I don’t expect much from Boston’s left-handed batters.
The sinker is Heaney’s favorite pitch. He relies on it with 58% frequency against right-handed batters. Against righties, he also emphasizes his change-up particularly with runners in scoring position. Boston ranks 11th in slugging against the sinker from lefties and are the fifth most underachieving lineup against the change-up based on the metric SLG-xSLG.
The Red Sox are hitting lefties again. Last season, they were one of the worst teams in April against lefties. Likewise, they began slowly against them this season, but now rank 14th in slugging against them in June. They’ve dominated their last three southpaws faced, achieving combined 17 runs against Seattle’s James Paxton, Wade LeBlanc and Marco Gonzales. Heaney is less effective against righties, to whom he doesn’t offer his curveball as much. Righties are slugging .505 against Heaney away. Watch for Mookie Betts, who is slugging .780 against southpaws and .650 in the past week. J.D. Martinez is slugging .808 in the past seven days. In the past three years, he is slugging .628 against southpaws and promises to work towards that number. Likewise, Xander Bogaerts is slugging .500 in his past seven days and is underachieving against southpaws relative to his career numbers against southpaws compared to right-handed pitchers and based on the metric SLG-xSLG.
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Rick Porcello (9-3, 3.44 ERA) is continuing his best season in terms of FIP (like ERA, but factors out luck). His biggest improvement was to reduce the number of home runs allowed—he’s done so by more than 50%, compared to last season. He doesn’t leave as many pitches down the middle. In terms of pitches, he’s reduced the opposing slugging percentage against his slider by .159, even though he throws it with 10% more frequency. He improved its velocity and especially started throwing it more against lefties. Overall, his stuff is better, and opponents are chasing his pitches more often even though he isn’t throwing as many strikes, although he’s allowing significantly less hard contact when he does throw strikes.
Porcello is especially dominant at home against righties, against which he is yielding a 2.22 FIP. He therefore matches up well against LA's line-up, which is very righty-heavy. Its top seven regular hitters, in terms of BA, are all right-handed. In their recent slump, the Angels are 3-for-26 against Porcello’s two most frequent pitches, the slider and sinker. Overall, Porcello has a strong history against LA, yielding six runs in three starts against them dating to 2017, in which he lasted at least six innings in each.
LA has lost four in a row, scoring zero or one run in three of those losses. Conversely, Boston has won four out of five, producing nine runs or more in three of those games. Boston’s strong team form will continue tonight.
