MLB Parlay Picks of the Day
Boston Red Sox vs. Minnesota Twins
Monday, April 12, 2021 at 2:10 p.m. ET at Target Field in Minneapolis, Minnesota
Martin Perez
Boston starter Martin Perez has never been more than a mediocre left-handed pitcher.
In a sense, he is a man of many pitches and a man of few pitches at the same time.
He offers a variety of types of pitches in his arsenal. But he only has one — hit cutter — that he can typically rely on to yield low BA and slugging averages.
He throws his cutter around 30 percent of the time, leaving him very vulnerable when he throws his other pitches.
Because so little of his stuff is effective, he’s been a pitcher throughout his career whose ERA revolves around 4.00 or 5.00 year after year.
Perez vs. Twin Batters
Perez will struggle to lower his current 5.40 ERA today because he faces a Twin lineup that ranks third in BA — with a .310 BA — against left-handed pitchers.
Among Twin batters, Nelson Cruz and Andrelton Simmons have seen Perez the most. Cruz is hitting .300 and slugging .633 against Perez while Simmons hits .304 and slugs .478 against him.
J.A. Happ
One noticeable aspect of left-handed Minnesota starter J.A. Happ is his improvement against right-handed batters.
Relative to his career average, Happ is allowing since 2020 lower BA and slugging rates against right-handed hitters.
His fastball, which is his favorite pitch overall, is effective against them. He’ll also mix in a change-up, which is a classic weapon against opposite-handed batters.
Happ’s fastball has a nice amount of spin to it at 2371 RPM. His change-up doesn’t have a lot of spin, but is thrown relatively hard and averages fewer MPH than his fastball than is the case with most pitchers who throw a fastball and change-up.
He’ll typically keep the horizontal and vertical release points of both pitches very similar to each other in order to prevent opposing batters from easily discerning which pitch is approaching them.
J.A. Happ vs. Red Sox Batters
Righty J.D. Martinez has one career extra-base hit in 34 at-bats against Happ.
Fellow righty Xander Bogaerts struggles against him, too, producing a .170 career BA.
Overall, in a combined total of 162 at-bats facing Happ, Boston hitters have a .216 BA and .346 slugging rate.
Happ’s advantage against Boston and his edge over Perez will secure the Twins a lead through five innings.
Texas Rangers vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Monday, April 12, 2021 at 7:10 p.m. ET at Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, Florida
Tyler Glasnow
Tampa Bay starter Tyler Glasnow is a typical power pitcher.
He relies most on his four-seam fastball, which averages 97.6 MPH in 2021.
His other primary pitch is his slider, which is averaging 87.7 MPH.
Both pitches play off each other by creating a change of pace.
Glasnow also uses them to change the batter’s eye level, elevating his fastball and then throwing his slider low in the strike zone.
To remain less predictable and create variety, he’ll switch things up and start with his slider, although the slider is classically more of a two-strike pitch.
Glasnow vs. Ranger Batters
Glasnow matches up well with Ranger batters because they struggle with the aspects of power that he brings.
Against the high-velocity fastball (averaging 94-99 mph), Texas is hitting .174 and slugging .304 so far.
Facing power pitchers, Texas’ BA is .200 and its slugging rate is .300.
Dane Dunning vs. Tampa Bay Batters
Texas starter Dane Dunning is, compared to Glasnow, much more of a one-pitch guy.
Dunning throws his sinker with 71.4 percent frequency.
As a so-called sinkerballer, he matches up poorly with a Tampa Bay lineup that hits .316 and slugs .526 against this pitch thrown by righties.
Dunning’s struggles tonight will ensure success for Glasnow-led Tampa Bay.
Since this is a parlay, don’t worry about how chalky the Rays are. But if you want to maximize your potential payout, play the Rays on the run-line.
Los Angeles Angels vs. Kansas City Royals
Monday, April 12, 2021 at 8:10 p.m. ET at Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri
Alex Cobb
Angel starter Alex Cobb has found success in terms of win-loss record and ERA in a number of different ballparks.
Kansas City’s Kauffman Stadium is not one of those ballparks. Look to fade Cobb when he pitches in Kansas City where he is 1-3 with a 5.06 ERA in four career starts.
His numbers against Royal batters are good but meaningless because 24 of the 71 at-bats that Royal batters have accumulated against him come from former Red Sox batter Andrew Benintendi.
Several other Royal batters look drastically more promising. Whit Merrifield, for example, has a home run in three at-bats against Cobb. Salvador Perez is 5-for-15 (.333) in his career against Cobb.
Brady Singer
While Angel batters have never faced young Royal starter Brady Singer, they have seen his favorite pitches a lot of times so far.
Singer primarily throws a sinker and a slider that tends to miss the strike zone.
Angel batters have seen 334 sinkers and sliders this year and hit .312 and slug .455 combined against these two pitches.
Their success tonight will allow them to keep pace with the success that Royal batters will find against Cobb.
So expect a high-scoring first five innings.
Best Bet: Parlay Twins First-Half ML, Rays First-Half ML, Angels/Royals First-Half Over (Odds TBA)
Boston Red Sox vs. Minnesota Twins
Monday, April 12, 2021 at 2:10 p.m. ET at Target Field in Minneapolis, Minnesota
Martin Perez
Boston starter Martin Perez has never been more than a mediocre left-handed pitcher.
In a sense, he is a man of many pitches and a man of few pitches at the same time.
He offers a variety of types of pitches in his arsenal. But he only has one — hit cutter — that he can typically rely on to yield low BA and slugging averages.
He throws his cutter around 30 percent of the time, leaving him very vulnerable when he throws his other pitches.
Because so little of his stuff is effective, he’s been a pitcher throughout his career whose ERA revolves around 4.00 or 5.00 year after year.
Perez vs. Twin Batters
Perez will struggle to lower his current 5.40 ERA today because he faces a Twin lineup that ranks third in BA — with a .310 BA — against left-handed pitchers.
Among Twin batters, Nelson Cruz and Andrelton Simmons have seen Perez the most. Cruz is hitting .300 and slugging .633 against Perez while Simmons hits .304 and slugs .478 against him.
J.A. Happ
One noticeable aspect of left-handed Minnesota starter J.A. Happ is his improvement against right-handed batters.
Relative to his career average, Happ is allowing since 2020 lower BA and slugging rates against right-handed hitters.
His fastball, which is his favorite pitch overall, is effective against them. He’ll also mix in a change-up, which is a classic weapon against opposite-handed batters.
Happ’s fastball has a nice amount of spin to it at 2371 RPM. His change-up doesn’t have a lot of spin, but is thrown relatively hard and averages fewer MPH than his fastball than is the case with most pitchers who throw a fastball and change-up.
He’ll typically keep the horizontal and vertical release points of both pitches very similar to each other in order to prevent opposing batters from easily discerning which pitch is approaching them.
J.A. Happ vs. Red Sox Batters
Righty J.D. Martinez has one career extra-base hit in 34 at-bats against Happ.
Fellow righty Xander Bogaerts struggles against him, too, producing a .170 career BA.
Overall, in a combined total of 162 at-bats facing Happ, Boston hitters have a .216 BA and .346 slugging rate.
Happ’s advantage against Boston and his edge over Perez will secure the Twins a lead through five innings.
Texas Rangers vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Monday, April 12, 2021 at 7:10 p.m. ET at Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, Florida
Tyler Glasnow
Tampa Bay starter Tyler Glasnow is a typical power pitcher.
He relies most on his four-seam fastball, which averages 97.6 MPH in 2021.
His other primary pitch is his slider, which is averaging 87.7 MPH.
Both pitches play off each other by creating a change of pace.
Glasnow also uses them to change the batter’s eye level, elevating his fastball and then throwing his slider low in the strike zone.
To remain less predictable and create variety, he’ll switch things up and start with his slider, although the slider is classically more of a two-strike pitch.
Glasnow vs. Ranger Batters
Glasnow matches up well with Ranger batters because they struggle with the aspects of power that he brings.
Against the high-velocity fastball (averaging 94-99 mph), Texas is hitting .174 and slugging .304 so far.
Facing power pitchers, Texas’ BA is .200 and its slugging rate is .300.
Dane Dunning vs. Tampa Bay Batters
Texas starter Dane Dunning is, compared to Glasnow, much more of a one-pitch guy.
Dunning throws his sinker with 71.4 percent frequency.
As a so-called sinkerballer, he matches up poorly with a Tampa Bay lineup that hits .316 and slugs .526 against this pitch thrown by righties.
Dunning’s struggles tonight will ensure success for Glasnow-led Tampa Bay.
Since this is a parlay, don’t worry about how chalky the Rays are. But if you want to maximize your potential payout, play the Rays on the run-line.
Los Angeles Angels vs. Kansas City Royals
Monday, April 12, 2021 at 8:10 p.m. ET at Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri
Alex Cobb
Angel starter Alex Cobb has found success in terms of win-loss record and ERA in a number of different ballparks.
Kansas City’s Kauffman Stadium is not one of those ballparks. Look to fade Cobb when he pitches in Kansas City where he is 1-3 with a 5.06 ERA in four career starts.
His numbers against Royal batters are good but meaningless because 24 of the 71 at-bats that Royal batters have accumulated against him come from former Red Sox batter Andrew Benintendi.
Several other Royal batters look drastically more promising. Whit Merrifield, for example, has a home run in three at-bats against Cobb. Salvador Perez is 5-for-15 (.333) in his career against Cobb.
Brady Singer
While Angel batters have never faced young Royal starter Brady Singer, they have seen his favorite pitches a lot of times so far.
Singer primarily throws a sinker and a slider that tends to miss the strike zone.
Angel batters have seen 334 sinkers and sliders this year and hit .312 and slug .455 combined against these two pitches.
Their success tonight will allow them to keep pace with the success that Royal batters will find against Cobb.
So expect a high-scoring first five innings.
Best Bet: Parlay Twins First-Half ML, Rays First-Half ML, Angels/Royals First-Half Over (Odds TBA)
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