MLB Parlay for June 28: A Bet That Pays (+601)
Boston Red Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Tuesday, June 28, 2022 at 7:07 p.m. ET at Rogers Centre in Toronto
Who Starts for Boston?
Boston starts Michael Wacha tonight.
His 2.34 ERA may make him look automatically reliable.
However, his 3.97 FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) reflects how poorly he's actually been performing.
In terms of his ERA, Wacha has benefitted from an unsustainably high strand rate and a very fortunately low opposing BABIP (batting average of balls in play).
Wacha vs. Blue Jay Hitters
I dislike Wacha today because he matches up poorly with Blue Jay hitters given the pitches that he throws.
Primarily, Wacha throws a fastball and changeup.
These are the two pitches that he throws over 15 percent of the time. He throws each one over 30 percent of the time.
Toronto, however, ranks ninth in slugging against his favorite pitches from righties.
Wacha vs. Righties
Wacha is an interesting specimen to study because he is a right-handed pitcher who performs vastly better against opposite-handed batters.
This fact is strange but easily easily explainable.
His changeup is his best pitch and it is a classic weapon that pitchers employ when facing opposite-handed batters.
Hence, he features it primarily against left-handed hitters.
One should thus expect righties to perform better against Wacha.
Whereas lefties are batting .157 and slugging .252 against him, righties are hitting .250 and slugging .403 with him on the mound.
Who Are Toronto's Top Righty Batters?
Toronto's lineup merits optimism today also because its top batters are right-handed.
For example, team BA leader Alejandro Kirk is right-handed.
Moreover, team home run leader Vlad Guerrero Jr. is also a righty.
Who Pitches for Toronto
Toronto starts Ross Stripling who finally gets another taste of tough competition.
Most of his opponents have been easy tests: three of his last four were a White Sox team that is terrible against righties, lowly Kansas City, and pitiful Detroit.
Boston has a strong lineup in general, but it also deserves optimism today because it matches up well with Stripling, ranking seventh in slugging against his favorite pitches from righties.
Houston Astros vs. New York Mets
Tuesday, June 28, 2022 at 7:10 p.m. ET (TBS) at Citi Field in Queens New York
Who Starts for Houston?
The Astros start southpaw Framber Valdez tonight.
While he's still yielding negative units for his backers due to the start of his season, Houston has won seven of the last nine games in which he started.
Pertinently to my favorite bet for this game, all seven of those wins came when Houston was favored.
I like Valdez tonight in particular because the Mets rank 23rd in slugging against his favorite pitches from lefties.
Who Starts for the Mets?
Houston gets to face Carlos Carrasco yet again.
In his last start, Carrasco yielded five earned runs in 2.1 innings in Houston.
We should expect a similar result tonight because the Astros match up excellently with Carrasco.
They rank second in slugging against his favorite pitches from righties.
San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Tuesday, June 28, 2022 at 9:40 p.m. ET at Chase Field in Phoenix
Who Starts for San Diego?
San Diego starts southpaw Sean Manaea to face Arizona for a second straight time.
Manaea has a great recent history in this situation where he has to face the same team in consecutive starts.
While tonight witnesses the first time in which he faces this situation this season, last year, he yielded an FIP in the second start three out of four times.
Plus, Manaea benefits from matching up well with the Diamondbacks who rank 27thin slugging against his favorite pitches from lefties.
Who Starts for Arizona?
The Diamondbacks start Zac Gallen who, like Manaea, is strong in immediate rematches.
He's faced this situation twice this year, allowing a combined total of one earned run in nine innings in consecutive meetings with the Mets and, most recently, a combined total of two earned runs in 11 innings in consecutive games against the Cubs.
Plus, he matches up well against the Padres, who rank 27thin slugging against his favorite pitches from righties.
Best Bet: Parlay Red Sox/Blue Jays Over 10 at +110, Astros ML at -122, Padres/Diamondbacks Under 8 at -120 at +601 odds with BetOnline
Boston Red Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Tuesday, June 28, 2022 at 7:07 p.m. ET at Rogers Centre in Toronto
Who Starts for Boston?
Boston starts Michael Wacha tonight.
His 2.34 ERA may make him look automatically reliable.
However, his 3.97 FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) reflects how poorly he's actually been performing.
In terms of his ERA, Wacha has benefitted from an unsustainably high strand rate and a very fortunately low opposing BABIP (batting average of balls in play).
Wacha vs. Blue Jay Hitters
I dislike Wacha today because he matches up poorly with Blue Jay hitters given the pitches that he throws.
Primarily, Wacha throws a fastball and changeup.
These are the two pitches that he throws over 15 percent of the time. He throws each one over 30 percent of the time.
Toronto, however, ranks ninth in slugging against his favorite pitches from righties.
Wacha vs. Righties
Wacha is an interesting specimen to study because he is a right-handed pitcher who performs vastly better against opposite-handed batters.
This fact is strange but easily easily explainable.
His changeup is his best pitch and it is a classic weapon that pitchers employ when facing opposite-handed batters.
Hence, he features it primarily against left-handed hitters.
One should thus expect righties to perform better against Wacha.
Whereas lefties are batting .157 and slugging .252 against him, righties are hitting .250 and slugging .403 with him on the mound.
Who Are Toronto's Top Righty Batters?
Toronto's lineup merits optimism today also because its top batters are right-handed.
For example, team BA leader Alejandro Kirk is right-handed.
Moreover, team home run leader Vlad Guerrero Jr. is also a righty.
Who Pitches for Toronto
Toronto starts Ross Stripling who finally gets another taste of tough competition.
Most of his opponents have been easy tests: three of his last four were a White Sox team that is terrible against righties, lowly Kansas City, and pitiful Detroit.
Boston has a strong lineup in general, but it also deserves optimism today because it matches up well with Stripling, ranking seventh in slugging against his favorite pitches from righties.
Houston Astros vs. New York Mets
Tuesday, June 28, 2022 at 7:10 p.m. ET (TBS) at Citi Field in Queens New York
Who Starts for Houston?
The Astros start southpaw Framber Valdez tonight.
While he's still yielding negative units for his backers due to the start of his season, Houston has won seven of the last nine games in which he started.
Pertinently to my favorite bet for this game, all seven of those wins came when Houston was favored.
I like Valdez tonight in particular because the Mets rank 23rd in slugging against his favorite pitches from lefties.
Who Starts for the Mets?
Houston gets to face Carlos Carrasco yet again.
In his last start, Carrasco yielded five earned runs in 2.1 innings in Houston.
We should expect a similar result tonight because the Astros match up excellently with Carrasco.
They rank second in slugging against his favorite pitches from righties.
San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Tuesday, June 28, 2022 at 9:40 p.m. ET at Chase Field in Phoenix
Who Starts for San Diego?
San Diego starts southpaw Sean Manaea to face Arizona for a second straight time.
Manaea has a great recent history in this situation where he has to face the same team in consecutive starts.
While tonight witnesses the first time in which he faces this situation this season, last year, he yielded an FIP in the second start three out of four times.
Plus, Manaea benefits from matching up well with the Diamondbacks who rank 27thin slugging against his favorite pitches from lefties.
Who Starts for Arizona?
The Diamondbacks start Zac Gallen who, like Manaea, is strong in immediate rematches.
He's faced this situation twice this year, allowing a combined total of one earned run in nine innings in consecutive meetings with the Mets and, most recently, a combined total of two earned runs in 11 innings in consecutive games against the Cubs.
Plus, he matches up well against the Padres, who rank 27thin slugging against his favorite pitches from righties.
Best Bet: Parlay Red Sox/Blue Jays Over 10 at +110, Astros ML at -122, Padres/Diamondbacks Under 8 at -120 at +601 odds with BetOnline
