White Sox Hang Tight With Red Sox; Dodger and Padre Lineups Rediscover Themselves
Boston (15-18) at Chicago White Sox (14-16)
When: 7:10 p.m. ET
MLB Pick: White Sox First-Half RL
Boston's Eduardo Rodriguez (2-2, 6.16 ERA) has been hit-or-miss. In his two wins, he allowed three runs combined in 12.2 innings. In his two losses, he allowed 11 runs in eight innings combined.
Rodriguez is a southpaw who primarily throws a fastball. This makes up 46% of his arsenal, although there's nothing special about it. It features average velocity, moderate movement, and one could consider its average release points to be similar enough to those of his change-up to generate some deception.
Relying on his fastball has been a poor strategy for Rodriguez. This pitch lacks the quality to survive its consistently poor location. For example, he places it in the heart of the plate with 6.90 percent frequency. Overall, opponents are slugging .623 against it. But he continues to rely on it for lack of alternatives. When runners enter scoring position, he has become predictable in throwing his cutter more often. Opponents are slugging .400 against his cutter compared to .250 against it overall. Rodriguez' predictability and thin quality help explain why his ERA is so high overall and with men on base.
Although Rodriguez dominated the White Sox last year, it is unfair to compare the Rodriguez of last September to the one at this point in the season, four months before September. Rodriguez is currently worse off and the White Sox are primed to take advantage because they rank fourth in slugging against the fastball thrown by lefties. Watch out for James McCann, a new addition to the lineup this year who is 3-for-10 (.300) with a double and two homers vs Rodriguez.
Chicago counters with a lefty of its own, Manny Banuelos (2-0, 2.70 ERA). Banuelos joined the starting rotation at the end of last month. After two starts, he has allowed two runs in 9.2 innings. Obviously, though, one would think that Boston should pose a bigger challenge to him than Baltimore.
Banuelos relies on a variety of pitches--four different ones that he utilizes with between 11 and 35 percent frequency. Besides variety, he sequences his pitches well in order to stay unpredictable. For example, he throws his slider, which is a classic two-strike pitch, with 40% frequency as a first pitch to lefties, meaning that he commands his pitches well enough to work backwards with them. He is a plate nibbler who concentrates his location on the borders of the zone. His pitches feature heavy movement, which he uses to induce batters to chase.
Whether as a long reliever throwing a few innings or as a starter, Banuelos has thrived particularly against teams who are struggling to hit lefties. Boston, like other victims of Banuelos, ranks well below average in slugging against lefties. As a team, Boston is 2-6 against lefty starters, yielding -6.6 units.
Los Angeles Dodgers (21-13) at San Diego (18-15)
When: 8:40 p.m. ET
MLB Pick: First-Half Over
San Diego's Joey Lucchesi (3-2, 4.94 ERA) has been hit-or-miss. In his worst three outings he allowed four, five, and seven runs. In his best three outings, he allowed zero or one run.
Lucchesi is unique in that, besides being a southpaw, he relies on a sinker-slider combo. Both pitches make up 86 percent of his arsenal. The key pattern is that, when Lucchesi has struggled, his opponent has slammed either pitch. The Dodgers match up well with him because they rank above-average in slugging against the sinker thrown by lefties and fourth in slugging against the change-up from lefties.
Multiple different Dodgers have hit well for power against him. In 35 career at-bats, they are slugging .600 against him. Watch out especially for Enrique Hernandez, who is 3-for-8 with a double and a homer against Lucchesi.
It may seem scary to go against L.A. starter Rich Hill (0-0, 1.50 ERA) considering the strong numbers that he has accrued in his career against active Padre batters. But those are currently deceptive.
Although Hill owned Padre batters multiple times last year, those numbers are meaningless because he repeatedly got to face them past July. Throughout his career, Hill has proven to be a late-season guy. In his career, his ERA is 4.27 in the first half of the season, compared to 3.52 in the second half. Last year, for example, his favorite and famous curveball yielded a .379 opposing slugging rate in the first half of the season, compared to a .304 opposing slugging rate in the second.
His last start against Pittsburgh, which was his debut start this season because he was out for five weeks with a strained knee, is cause for concern. He succeeded against Pittsburgh last year, but yielded a 5.45 FIP (like ERA, but factors out fielding) and surrendered two home runs this year. Importantly, the Pirates slugged .615 against his curveball, almost .300 higher than they did when they faced Hill last July. I lack faith in Hill because the vertical release point of his curveball was as high as it's ever been, which indicates that he is still trying to rediscover the right delivery for this pitch.
Some Padres have already earned strong numbers against the better version of Hill. In particular, Hunter Renfroe is 6-for-18 (.333) with a double and two homers.
Boston (15-18) at Chicago White Sox (14-16)
When: 7:10 p.m. ET
MLB Pick: White Sox First-Half RL
Boston's Eduardo Rodriguez (2-2, 6.16 ERA) has been hit-or-miss. In his two wins, he allowed three runs combined in 12.2 innings. In his two losses, he allowed 11 runs in eight innings combined.
Rodriguez is a southpaw who primarily throws a fastball. This makes up 46% of his arsenal, although there's nothing special about it. It features average velocity, moderate movement, and one could consider its average release points to be similar enough to those of his change-up to generate some deception.
Relying on his fastball has been a poor strategy for Rodriguez. This pitch lacks the quality to survive its consistently poor location. For example, he places it in the heart of the plate with 6.90 percent frequency. Overall, opponents are slugging .623 against it. But he continues to rely on it for lack of alternatives. When runners enter scoring position, he has become predictable in throwing his cutter more often. Opponents are slugging .400 against his cutter compared to .250 against it overall. Rodriguez' predictability and thin quality help explain why his ERA is so high overall and with men on base.
Although Rodriguez dominated the White Sox last year, it is unfair to compare the Rodriguez of last September to the one at this point in the season, four months before September. Rodriguez is currently worse off and the White Sox are primed to take advantage because they rank fourth in slugging against the fastball thrown by lefties. Watch out for James McCann, a new addition to the lineup this year who is 3-for-10 (.300) with a double and two homers vs Rodriguez.
Chicago counters with a lefty of its own, Manny Banuelos (2-0, 2.70 ERA). Banuelos joined the starting rotation at the end of last month. After two starts, he has allowed two runs in 9.2 innings. Obviously, though, one would think that Boston should pose a bigger challenge to him than Baltimore.
Banuelos relies on a variety of pitches--four different ones that he utilizes with between 11 and 35 percent frequency. Besides variety, he sequences his pitches well in order to stay unpredictable. For example, he throws his slider, which is a classic two-strike pitch, with 40% frequency as a first pitch to lefties, meaning that he commands his pitches well enough to work backwards with them. He is a plate nibbler who concentrates his location on the borders of the zone. His pitches feature heavy movement, which he uses to induce batters to chase.
Whether as a long reliever throwing a few innings or as a starter, Banuelos has thrived particularly against teams who are struggling to hit lefties. Boston, like other victims of Banuelos, ranks well below average in slugging against lefties. As a team, Boston is 2-6 against lefty starters, yielding -6.6 units.
Los Angeles Dodgers (21-13) at San Diego (18-15)
When: 8:40 p.m. ET
MLB Pick: First-Half Over
San Diego's Joey Lucchesi (3-2, 4.94 ERA) has been hit-or-miss. In his worst three outings he allowed four, five, and seven runs. In his best three outings, he allowed zero or one run.
Lucchesi is unique in that, besides being a southpaw, he relies on a sinker-slider combo. Both pitches make up 86 percent of his arsenal. The key pattern is that, when Lucchesi has struggled, his opponent has slammed either pitch. The Dodgers match up well with him because they rank above-average in slugging against the sinker thrown by lefties and fourth in slugging against the change-up from lefties.
Multiple different Dodgers have hit well for power against him. In 35 career at-bats, they are slugging .600 against him. Watch out especially for Enrique Hernandez, who is 3-for-8 with a double and a homer against Lucchesi.
It may seem scary to go against L.A. starter Rich Hill (0-0, 1.50 ERA) considering the strong numbers that he has accrued in his career against active Padre batters. But those are currently deceptive.
Although Hill owned Padre batters multiple times last year, those numbers are meaningless because he repeatedly got to face them past July. Throughout his career, Hill has proven to be a late-season guy. In his career, his ERA is 4.27 in the first half of the season, compared to 3.52 in the second half. Last year, for example, his favorite and famous curveball yielded a .379 opposing slugging rate in the first half of the season, compared to a .304 opposing slugging rate in the second.
His last start against Pittsburgh, which was his debut start this season because he was out for five weeks with a strained knee, is cause for concern. He succeeded against Pittsburgh last year, but yielded a 5.45 FIP (like ERA, but factors out fielding) and surrendered two home runs this year. Importantly, the Pirates slugged .615 against his curveball, almost .300 higher than they did when they faced Hill last July. I lack faith in Hill because the vertical release point of his curveball was as high as it's ever been, which indicates that he is still trying to rediscover the right delivery for this pitch.
Some Padres have already earned strong numbers against the better version of Hill. In particular, Hunter Renfroe is 6-for-18 (.333) with a double and two homers.
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