Bet This MLB Parlay at (+283) on Monday
Boston Red Sox vs. Los Angeles Angels
Monday, June 6, 2022 at 9:38 p.m. ET at Angel Stadium in Anaheim, California
Who Is Starting for Boston?
Boston is starting Michael Wacha tonight.
By various statistical measures, Wacha is enjoying his best season in years.
He isn't doing anything too sexy: he isn't inducing more swinging strikes or generating more strikeouts.
Wacha isn't throwing harder, either.
But Wacha is also not the kind of pitcher who accumulates strikeouts by blowing pitches past opposing batters.
Wacha's Style
Primarily, Wacha throws a changeup and fastball.
It is rare to see a pitcher whose most frequent pitch is his changeup, but Wacha is such a pitcher.
By far, his changeup and fastball are his most frequent pitches.
One thing he does well is play both pitches off each other.
They create a nice change of pace through their average 8.1 mph velocity differential.
In addition to using this change of pace to keep hitters off-balance, he'll change their eye level by having his normally low changeup follow his typically high fastball.
Plus, Wacha is comfortable throwing three other pitches, thus injecting variety into his arsenal.
Heat maps provide evidence of these locational tendencies.
They also show his great control. He repeatedly locates pitches along the edges of the strike zone where it is more difficult for batters to make good contact.
Hence, he has starkly reduced the rate at which opponents generate hard contact off his pitches.
Angel Batters
Overall, L.A. is slumping. The Angels have lost 11 straight.
In particular, their lineup is struggling recently.
They've scored one run or fewer in four of their last six games.
The two exceptions did come most recently.
They scored two runs in their second-to-last game and seven in their last game.
But when they scored seven, they relied mostly on a fortunately high BABIP (batting average of balls in play) against opposing starter Kyle Gibson whose 3.14 FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) shows that he actually performed excellently against the Angels.
Wacha promises to thrive tonight because, during their most recent hitting struggle, the Angels rank 27thin slugging .213 against Wacha's favorite pitches from righties.
Who Is Pitching for the Angels?
L.A. starts Noah Syndergaard who has been a bad pitcher to back. L.A. is yielding -2.2 units in his starts.
Thor relies primarily on three pitches, his sinker, changeup, and fastball.
One characteristic of his pithing is his higher velocity: his sinker and fastball both average 94 mph.
He will be more vulnerable to lineups who can handle his heat.
How Does Boston Match Up With Thor?
I like Red Sox batters tonight because they rank third in slugging against Syndergaard's favorite pitches and fifth in slugging against the 94 mph fastball and sinker.
Plus, the Red Sox are hitting the ball well right now.
Currently, they enjoy a four-game win streak during which they've amassed 27 runs through consistent hitting.
Look out, for example, for Rafael Devers who brings a five-game hitting streak into tonight's contest.
During this streak, Devers has accrued three doubles and one home run.
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres
Monday, June 6, 2022 at 9:40 p.m. ET at Petco Park in San Diego
Who Pitches for the Mets?
New York starts Carlos Carrasco who is a reliable pitcher.
Before his last start, Carrasco yielded a sub-three FIP in three straight starts.
In his last start, Carrasco was unusually unsharp.
But despite deviating from his usual sharpness and walking five batters, he allowed zero runs.
He will be sharper tonight because he is normally a pitcher who walks one or maybe two batters at most.
Carrasco vs. Padre Batters
Carrasco can still thrive even when he is not sharp because of his excellent pitching repertoire.
He relies primarily on a fastball, changeup, and slider, using them to earn, among other things, an elite chase rate.
Carrasco matches up well with Padre batters as they rank 25thin slugging against his favorite pitches.
Who Pitches for San Diego?
San Diego starts Blake Snell who, after succeeding against a Cardinal lineup that is normally elite against lefties, has established his footing in this season.
Snell will thrive tonight against a Met lineup that is significantly weaker away from home.
On the road, the Mets rank 27thin slugging .306 against Snell's favorite pitches from lefties.
Best Bet: Parlay Red Sox ML at +105 & Mets/Padres Under 7.5 at -115 at +283 odds with BetOnline
Boston Red Sox vs. Los Angeles Angels
Monday, June 6, 2022 at 9:38 p.m. ET at Angel Stadium in Anaheim, California
Who Is Starting for Boston?
Boston is starting Michael Wacha tonight.
By various statistical measures, Wacha is enjoying his best season in years.
He isn't doing anything too sexy: he isn't inducing more swinging strikes or generating more strikeouts.
Wacha isn't throwing harder, either.
But Wacha is also not the kind of pitcher who accumulates strikeouts by blowing pitches past opposing batters.
Wacha's Style
Primarily, Wacha throws a changeup and fastball.
It is rare to see a pitcher whose most frequent pitch is his changeup, but Wacha is such a pitcher.
By far, his changeup and fastball are his most frequent pitches.
One thing he does well is play both pitches off each other.
They create a nice change of pace through their average 8.1 mph velocity differential.
In addition to using this change of pace to keep hitters off-balance, he'll change their eye level by having his normally low changeup follow his typically high fastball.
Plus, Wacha is comfortable throwing three other pitches, thus injecting variety into his arsenal.
Heat maps provide evidence of these locational tendencies.
They also show his great control. He repeatedly locates pitches along the edges of the strike zone where it is more difficult for batters to make good contact.
Hence, he has starkly reduced the rate at which opponents generate hard contact off his pitches.
Angel Batters
Overall, L.A. is slumping. The Angels have lost 11 straight.
In particular, their lineup is struggling recently.
They've scored one run or fewer in four of their last six games.
The two exceptions did come most recently.
They scored two runs in their second-to-last game and seven in their last game.
But when they scored seven, they relied mostly on a fortunately high BABIP (batting average of balls in play) against opposing starter Kyle Gibson whose 3.14 FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) shows that he actually performed excellently against the Angels.
Wacha promises to thrive tonight because, during their most recent hitting struggle, the Angels rank 27thin slugging .213 against Wacha's favorite pitches from righties.
Who Is Pitching for the Angels?
L.A. starts Noah Syndergaard who has been a bad pitcher to back. L.A. is yielding -2.2 units in his starts.
Thor relies primarily on three pitches, his sinker, changeup, and fastball.
One characteristic of his pithing is his higher velocity: his sinker and fastball both average 94 mph.
He will be more vulnerable to lineups who can handle his heat.
How Does Boston Match Up With Thor?
I like Red Sox batters tonight because they rank third in slugging against Syndergaard's favorite pitches and fifth in slugging against the 94 mph fastball and sinker.
Plus, the Red Sox are hitting the ball well right now.
Currently, they enjoy a four-game win streak during which they've amassed 27 runs through consistent hitting.
Look out, for example, for Rafael Devers who brings a five-game hitting streak into tonight's contest.
During this streak, Devers has accrued three doubles and one home run.
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres
Monday, June 6, 2022 at 9:40 p.m. ET at Petco Park in San Diego
Who Pitches for the Mets?
New York starts Carlos Carrasco who is a reliable pitcher.
Before his last start, Carrasco yielded a sub-three FIP in three straight starts.
In his last start, Carrasco was unusually unsharp.
But despite deviating from his usual sharpness and walking five batters, he allowed zero runs.
He will be sharper tonight because he is normally a pitcher who walks one or maybe two batters at most.
Carrasco vs. Padre Batters
Carrasco can still thrive even when he is not sharp because of his excellent pitching repertoire.
He relies primarily on a fastball, changeup, and slider, using them to earn, among other things, an elite chase rate.
Carrasco matches up well with Padre batters as they rank 25thin slugging against his favorite pitches.
Who Pitches for San Diego?
San Diego starts Blake Snell who, after succeeding against a Cardinal lineup that is normally elite against lefties, has established his footing in this season.
Snell will thrive tonight against a Met lineup that is significantly weaker away from home.
On the road, the Mets rank 27thin slugging .306 against Snell's favorite pitches from lefties.
Best Bet: Parlay Red Sox ML at +105 & Mets/Padres Under 7.5 at -115 at +283 odds with BetOnline
