Reasonable action

[tuck321]

GS first quarter plus 2.5 with a dash of ml and GS plus 5.5 first half
Why. Generally you change things up when what you do is not winning. The Hornets have played 4 home games since they lost at home to the Knicks. in those game they have never covered in the first half or the first quarter. In those games they are 4-0 su and 3-1 ats. They did not cover in the first half or the first quarter vs the Knicks so this trend is 5 games in length. against Washington they covered in the first quarter but lost the first half su. Against Houston they covered in the first quarter but probably pushed with a 2 point win in the first half. Got blown away in both by the Lakers. Won the first quarter put pushed su vs the Kings. Lost both to the Spurs. In their last 10 home games they have covered in the first half 1 time. The Clippers playing worse 4 in 6 b-b on a 10 game losing streak when NO was bouncing back off a 26 point loss at Utah.
The referees in the game are 48-50 su against the home team. GS and the Hornets have eactly the same number of ats wins with them.
GS has bounced back the last 4 times off an ats loss. They are also (gulp)awful in first game of a b-b. They are 2-0-1 ats away off a 20 plus loss. NO plays at Spurs tomorrow. As I said its hard to say which is best here. First quarter or first half. Looking at GS the first quarter looks best as they have tended to be weak in the second quarter. When they played Dallas they pushed 1 quarter and lost the rest which screams a fast start today. Looking at NO the first half looks best looking at their 1-9 record. I played them both but if forced to chose would go with the first quarter. GL

 

[RetroVK]

thanks for the insight tuck.

 

[tuck321]

OKC was down 29 points in the first half last time in Utah. Came back 22 of them second half. Getting more than 8 points they are 13-1 ats last 14 this season. Utah is certainly in a desperate spot and has been fine as a first half favorite but is missing AK and Boozer and as a over 8 favorite has failed 4 of their last 5 at home ats. Tend to think a fairly safe way to play is to just hope Utah gets a good first half advantage and take OKC in the second half. Jazz have covered 1 game last 9. In their last 10 home games they have won straight up in the second half twice.

 

[JPicks]

OKC was down 29 points in the first half last time in Utah. Came back 22 of them second half. Getting more than 8 points they are 13-1 ats last 14 this season. Utah is certainly in a desperate spot and has been fine as a first half favorite but is missing AK and Boozer and as a over 8 favorite has failed 4 of their last 5 at home ats. Tend to think a fairly safe way to play is to just hope Utah gets a good first half advantage and take OKC in the second half. Jazz have covered 1 game last 9. In their last 10 home games they have won straight up in the second half twice.

:shake:

 

[tuck321]

Something to think about regarding Indiana. if they cover today that would be 2 in a row. they have only covered 3 in a row once this year so it would set up as a good play on the Knicks. BC and I are both looking hard at Portland tomorrow hoping they get the win today.

 

[tuck321]

What i am saying is with this team you almost have to handicap the ats results. They never go long in any direction. The Spurs game was a great example. Betting on them to cover would have meant they covered 5 in a row. Just not happening.

 

[CASH]

looks like portland at -9 for tomorrow night already..

10:00 PM ET
Utah at Portland
<TABLE class=so-table><TBODY><TR><TD class=datahead width="11%">Teams</TD><TD class=datahead width="11%">ROT</TD><TD class=datahead>Record</TD><TD class=dataheadc width="23%">Consensus</TD><TD class=dataheadc width="25%">Odds</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datab>UTA </TD><TD class=data>519</TD><TD class=data>25-21 (8-15 V) </TD><TD class=datac>59%</TD><TD class=datac id=total_top9_767615>199</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datab>POR </TD><TD class=data>520</TD><TD class=data>28-17 (17-5 H) </TD><TD class=datac>41%</TD><TD class=datac id=spread_bottom9_767615>-9</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

 

[tuck321]

Have played Sixers minus 3 first quarter. If that loses will play them in the third. Washington usually a 1 quarter team where 3 not so much. Also another minor bet on Minn second quarter plus 1.5

 

[SF_capper]

gl tonight tuck. appreciate the thoughts

 

[CappingCrunch]

interesting fact.. thanks tuck.. BOL

 

[SportsNut]

Good post . I have been playing against the NOH in the 1st Half for awhile now and then on them at halftime. Definetly IMO have shown to be a slow starting team..:cheers:

 

[tuck321]

BOL all. Adding another first quarter bet on the Bobcats. 3 seems a little large here. Last 3 at the site they have covered getting 3 or more twice with 1 push. Denver playing 4 in 6 as well and the two teams not really enemies. Also the Bobcats tend to do well after the low scoring 70's games.

 

[Marlo]

Surprised I didnt see you on Cavs 1st quarter..good luck with your action Tuck.

 

[tuck321]

Honestly very small on the other side. Baron not in the starting line up. Think the Clippers will show up when he is not starting but it is a small bet.

 

[tuck321]

Wish Baron had been starting. Very hard to believe some times. Played many games. All on high level of competition and always played up looking to play against the best possible opponent. Sit there look some little girls and go down 11 -0. No guts

 

[Marlo]

obviously paid off though

 

[tuck321]

I take it back. I take it back. 26-26 maybe some guts. Naturally the smallest bet I made today. Go Clippers.

 

[Timh]

GL Tuck.