Rays vs. Yankees Game 3: MLB Best Bets
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees
Wednesday, October 7, 2020 at 7:10 p.m. ET (TBS) at Petco Park
Charlie Morton
Tampa Bay starter Charlie Morton has, perhaps due to his age (he’s 36 years old ), regressed in some respects.
Last year, velocity was much more of a weapon for him.
For example, he likes to throw a four-seam fastball. Whereas this pitch averaged 95.11 mph for him last year, it averages 93.84 this year.
This depreciation in average pitch velocity is a widespread trend in his pitching arsenal.
He still relies on his fastball. In fact, he throws it more frequently than he did last year and he throws it more often than any other pitch.
But — and its reduced velocity plays a role here — opponents are performing better against this pitch this year. Right now, his fastball yields a .271 BA.
Obviously, a pitcher should inspire some concern when his favorite pitch is evidently so hittable.
His other pitches are, based on average BA, even more hittable.
Morton vs. Yankee Batters
The only pitch that he can be proud of is his curveball.
Of course, Morton won’t just throw curveballs. It is his second-most frequent pitch and, no matter what, he will foreground other, less effective options.
Also, he throws his curveball most often when he’s ahead in the count or when there are two strikes.
So the success of Morton’s curveball hinges on his success of his other pitches because he is more likely to throw other pitches before he gets ahead of the count or before he reaches two strikes in the count.
I like Yankee batters today because I trust them most especially against those other pitches that Morton will throw.
But it’s even true that the Yanks rank seventh in slugging against Morton’s three favorite pitches, which are the fastball, sinker, and, yes, the curveball.
His curveball won’t catch them off guard, either.
Active Yankee hitters have accumulated a total of 160 at-bats against Morton in their career.
They feature four different players who slug over .530 against Morton.
Look out, for example, for Giancarlo Stanton. He’s 9-for-26 (.346) with two doubles and a homer (.538 slugging rate) in his career against Morton.
Masahiro Tanaka’s Spot
Keep in mind with your MLB Picks that Yankee starter Masahiro Tanaka is in a nice bounce-back spot after losing in his last start.
Tanaka had lost two games before. So far, he’s allowed a combined total of one run in 10 innings pitched in his first game immediately following a loss.
Tanaka’s Stuff
Tanaka is unique because his favorite pitch is his slider. This pitch is a classic two-strike pitch. But Tanaka is sufficiently comfortable with it to throw it more than any other pitch in basically every other situation in the count to both lefties and righties.
Unlike Morton’s favorite pitch, Tanaka’s is effective. Opponents hit .238 against it and their slugging rate remains under .400 when hitters face him.
He doesn’t rely on this pitch too much, though. He throws it 38 percent of the time overall. Tanaka also favors a fastball and splitter each with 23-24 percent frequency.
To make up for the slight lack of velocity, which really is only perceptible when one compares it with the older Morton’s velocity, he relies on deception and location.
One thing that he’ll try to do is to mix the vertical and horizontal release points of his different pitches in order deceive batters as to which pitch he’s releasing.
Good location is also important and useful for him. It’s evident in the fact that his three most frequent strike locations are in the lowest row of the strike zone.
Tanaka vs. Ray Batters
Tanaka matches up well with Tampa Bay because its lineup ranks 27th in slugging against Tanaka’s pitches.
Expect, for example, Ji-Man Choi to struggle. He’s 4-for-21 (.190) against Tanaka.
The Verdict
With their match-up advantage, expect them to jet past the Rays. Because I want to focus on New York’s edge in starting pitching, I make this a first-half play.
Best Bet: Yankees First-Five ML (-130) with Bovada
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees
Wednesday, October 7, 2020 at 7:10 p.m. ET (TBS) at Petco Park
Charlie Morton
Tampa Bay starter Charlie Morton has, perhaps due to his age (he’s 36 years old ), regressed in some respects.
Last year, velocity was much more of a weapon for him.
For example, he likes to throw a four-seam fastball. Whereas this pitch averaged 95.11 mph for him last year, it averages 93.84 this year.
This depreciation in average pitch velocity is a widespread trend in his pitching arsenal.
He still relies on his fastball. In fact, he throws it more frequently than he did last year and he throws it more often than any other pitch.
But — and its reduced velocity plays a role here — opponents are performing better against this pitch this year. Right now, his fastball yields a .271 BA.
Obviously, a pitcher should inspire some concern when his favorite pitch is evidently so hittable.
His other pitches are, based on average BA, even more hittable.
Morton vs. Yankee Batters
The only pitch that he can be proud of is his curveball.
Of course, Morton won’t just throw curveballs. It is his second-most frequent pitch and, no matter what, he will foreground other, less effective options.
Also, he throws his curveball most often when he’s ahead in the count or when there are two strikes.
So the success of Morton’s curveball hinges on his success of his other pitches because he is more likely to throw other pitches before he gets ahead of the count or before he reaches two strikes in the count.
I like Yankee batters today because I trust them most especially against those other pitches that Morton will throw.
But it’s even true that the Yanks rank seventh in slugging against Morton’s three favorite pitches, which are the fastball, sinker, and, yes, the curveball.
His curveball won’t catch them off guard, either.
Active Yankee hitters have accumulated a total of 160 at-bats against Morton in their career.
They feature four different players who slug over .530 against Morton.
Look out, for example, for Giancarlo Stanton. He’s 9-for-26 (.346) with two doubles and a homer (.538 slugging rate) in his career against Morton.
Masahiro Tanaka’s Spot
Keep in mind with your MLB Picks that Yankee starter Masahiro Tanaka is in a nice bounce-back spot after losing in his last start.
Tanaka had lost two games before. So far, he’s allowed a combined total of one run in 10 innings pitched in his first game immediately following a loss.
Tanaka’s Stuff
Tanaka is unique because his favorite pitch is his slider. This pitch is a classic two-strike pitch. But Tanaka is sufficiently comfortable with it to throw it more than any other pitch in basically every other situation in the count to both lefties and righties.
Unlike Morton’s favorite pitch, Tanaka’s is effective. Opponents hit .238 against it and their slugging rate remains under .400 when hitters face him.
He doesn’t rely on this pitch too much, though. He throws it 38 percent of the time overall. Tanaka also favors a fastball and splitter each with 23-24 percent frequency.
To make up for the slight lack of velocity, which really is only perceptible when one compares it with the older Morton’s velocity, he relies on deception and location.
One thing that he’ll try to do is to mix the vertical and horizontal release points of his different pitches in order deceive batters as to which pitch he’s releasing.
Good location is also important and useful for him. It’s evident in the fact that his three most frequent strike locations are in the lowest row of the strike zone.
Tanaka vs. Ray Batters
Tanaka matches up well with Tampa Bay because its lineup ranks 27th in slugging against Tanaka’s pitches.
Expect, for example, Ji-Man Choi to struggle. He’s 4-for-21 (.190) against Tanaka.
The Verdict
With their match-up advantage, expect them to jet past the Rays. Because I want to focus on New York’s edge in starting pitching, I make this a first-half play.
Best Bet: Yankees First-Five ML (-130) with Bovada
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