Rays vs. Nationals: MLB Top Bets
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Washington Nationals
Tuesday, September 8, 2020 at 6:05 p.m. ET at Nationals Park in Washington D.C.
Ryan Yarbrough’s ERA
Tampa Bay's Ryan Yarbrough (0-2, 3.65 ERA) is Tuesday's starter as he returns from a groin injury. His last start was on August 28.
If you were to look only at his ERA, you would get the impression that Yarbrough has improved relative to last year.
But Yarbrough is striking out 1.1 fewer batters per nine innings, walking .88 more batters per nine innings, and allowing .27 more home runs per nine innings.
Also based on his 4.55 FIP (like ERA, but factors out fielding) and his 4.33 xFIP (like FIP but adjusts for league-average ratio of fly balls to home runs), Yarbrough is performing about as poorly as he ever has in his career.
Ryan Yarbrough’s Pitch Quality
In addition to Yarbrough’s ERA, it’s easy to look at the opposing BA of his pitches in order to fabricate a narrative about his improvement.
But he’s clearly benefitted from facing lineups that match up with him poorly based on their stats against his favorite pitches.
One benefactor of this match-up luck has been his fastball (which some databases call a sinker). Last year, it yielded a .321 BA. This year, its opposing BA is .174.
This improvement in BA cannot be a reflection of his pitch quality for several reasons.
His fastball/sinker velocity has dropped from last year to this year. Likewise, its spin rate dropped, making it less deceptive for batters. This pitch moves less than it did last year.
Also, pitching charts show that he is doing a worse job of locating his fastball/sinker, most frequently leaving this pitch in the middle, more hittable parts of the zone.
Similar stories can be told about the rest of his pitches — he also emphasizes a change-up and cutter. Each pitch’s average velocity is down from last year.
Yarbrough vs Nationals Batters
As a southpaw, Yarbrough matches up terribly with the Nationals. They lead the MLB in BA (.302) against lefty pitchers.
Against his three favorite pitches from lefties, the fastball/sinker, change-up, and cutter, the Nationals rank first in slugging .622.
Yarbrough throws these three pitches with combined 93.6 percent frequency. So there is no way for him to avoid Washington’s match-up advantages.
One lefty killer to watch out for is Trea Turner. The Washington shortstop is hitting .395 and slugging .684 against southpaws.
Anibal Sanchez
Washington starter Anibal Sanchez’s surface stats — he’s 1-4 with a 6.48 ERA — do reflect how he’s pitching individually overall.
But they do not reflect his tendency to perform much better at home where his FIP and xFIP are each about 1.00 lower than on the road.
One thing that Sanchez does well in his best games is start at-bats with a strike.
He enjoys more diverse first-pitch selection than Yarbrough does.
While Sanchez is like Yarbrough in that he primarily throws three pitches, he also mixes in a number of other pitches.
So unlike Yarbrough, Sanchez does not throw any pitch to start off an at-bat with more than 37 percent frequency.
Especially with his cutter, Sanchez is a strong fly ball-inducing pitcher. He’ll locate his cutters high and induce batters to swing underneath them.
Sanchez’s variety keeps him less predictable. He enhances his unpredictability by being deceptive.
Two of his favorite pitches — his fastball and cutter — share similar vertical and horizontal release points such that batters can’t discern which pitch is leaving his hand.
Sanchez vs Rays Batters
Besides being at home, Sanchez is glad to face the Rays on Tuesday because he matches up well with them in two respects.
One, they rank below league-average in slugging against his three favorite pitches from righties, his fastball, cutter, and spit finger, which combine to make up 80 percent of his arsenal.
Two, they are at their worst against fly ball pitchers. They bat .226 and slug .377 against them. With his 35 percent ground ball rate, Sanchez certainly counts as a fly ball pitcher.
Expect Joey Wendle, for example, to struggle. He’s 0-for-2 with a strikeout against Sanchez.
The Verdict
Unfortunately, many bettors will only want to look at both team’s records and compare the starters’ ERAs.
But a deeper dive suggests that the surface stats are misleading in their support of Tampa Bay and the match-up details overwhelmingly favor the Nationals.
Let's make a first-half play on Washington in order to take advantage of its edge in starting pitching.
Best Bet: Nationals First-Half ML (odds TBA)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Washington Nationals
Tuesday, September 8, 2020 at 6:05 p.m. ET at Nationals Park in Washington D.C.
Ryan Yarbrough’s ERA
Tampa Bay's Ryan Yarbrough (0-2, 3.65 ERA) is Tuesday's starter as he returns from a groin injury. His last start was on August 28.
If you were to look only at his ERA, you would get the impression that Yarbrough has improved relative to last year.
But Yarbrough is striking out 1.1 fewer batters per nine innings, walking .88 more batters per nine innings, and allowing .27 more home runs per nine innings.
Also based on his 4.55 FIP (like ERA, but factors out fielding) and his 4.33 xFIP (like FIP but adjusts for league-average ratio of fly balls to home runs), Yarbrough is performing about as poorly as he ever has in his career.
Ryan Yarbrough’s Pitch Quality
In addition to Yarbrough’s ERA, it’s easy to look at the opposing BA of his pitches in order to fabricate a narrative about his improvement.
But he’s clearly benefitted from facing lineups that match up with him poorly based on their stats against his favorite pitches.
One benefactor of this match-up luck has been his fastball (which some databases call a sinker). Last year, it yielded a .321 BA. This year, its opposing BA is .174.
This improvement in BA cannot be a reflection of his pitch quality for several reasons.
His fastball/sinker velocity has dropped from last year to this year. Likewise, its spin rate dropped, making it less deceptive for batters. This pitch moves less than it did last year.
Also, pitching charts show that he is doing a worse job of locating his fastball/sinker, most frequently leaving this pitch in the middle, more hittable parts of the zone.
Similar stories can be told about the rest of his pitches — he also emphasizes a change-up and cutter. Each pitch’s average velocity is down from last year.
Yarbrough vs Nationals Batters
As a southpaw, Yarbrough matches up terribly with the Nationals. They lead the MLB in BA (.302) against lefty pitchers.
Against his three favorite pitches from lefties, the fastball/sinker, change-up, and cutter, the Nationals rank first in slugging .622.
Yarbrough throws these three pitches with combined 93.6 percent frequency. So there is no way for him to avoid Washington’s match-up advantages.
One lefty killer to watch out for is Trea Turner. The Washington shortstop is hitting .395 and slugging .684 against southpaws.
Anibal Sanchez
Washington starter Anibal Sanchez’s surface stats — he’s 1-4 with a 6.48 ERA — do reflect how he’s pitching individually overall.
But they do not reflect his tendency to perform much better at home where his FIP and xFIP are each about 1.00 lower than on the road.
One thing that Sanchez does well in his best games is start at-bats with a strike.
He enjoys more diverse first-pitch selection than Yarbrough does.
While Sanchez is like Yarbrough in that he primarily throws three pitches, he also mixes in a number of other pitches.
So unlike Yarbrough, Sanchez does not throw any pitch to start off an at-bat with more than 37 percent frequency.
Especially with his cutter, Sanchez is a strong fly ball-inducing pitcher. He’ll locate his cutters high and induce batters to swing underneath them.
Sanchez’s variety keeps him less predictable. He enhances his unpredictability by being deceptive.
Two of his favorite pitches — his fastball and cutter — share similar vertical and horizontal release points such that batters can’t discern which pitch is leaving his hand.
Sanchez vs Rays Batters
Besides being at home, Sanchez is glad to face the Rays on Tuesday because he matches up well with them in two respects.
One, they rank below league-average in slugging against his three favorite pitches from righties, his fastball, cutter, and spit finger, which combine to make up 80 percent of his arsenal.
Two, they are at their worst against fly ball pitchers. They bat .226 and slug .377 against them. With his 35 percent ground ball rate, Sanchez certainly counts as a fly ball pitcher.
Expect Joey Wendle, for example, to struggle. He’s 0-for-2 with a strikeout against Sanchez.
The Verdict
Unfortunately, many bettors will only want to look at both team’s records and compare the starters’ ERAs.
But a deeper dive suggests that the surface stats are misleading in their support of Tampa Bay and the match-up details overwhelmingly favor the Nationals.
Let's make a first-half play on Washington in order to take advantage of its edge in starting pitching.
Best Bet: Nationals First-Half ML (odds TBA)
