MLB Picks & Baseball Predictions: Best Bets of the Day
A’s vs Rays
Wednesday, October 2 2019 at 8 p.m. ET (ESPN) in Oakland Coliseum
Both broader and more specific perspectives point to a successful outing from Tampa Bay starter Charlie Morton (16-6, 3.05 ERA).
Broadly speaking, Morton enjoyed his strongest regular season. His strikeout, walk, and opposing home run rates were the best or near the best of his 12-year career. His ERA finished at an all-time low, as did his 2.81 FIP (like ERA, but factors out fielding).
One reason for his improvement is that he’s throwing his curveball, which has always been solid for him, more than ever before. Opponents are hitting .151 against this pitch.
Put into betting terms, Morton was Tampa Bay’s second-most profitable pitcher, yielding +5.6 units. He partook in his team’s overall success on the road—the Rays were the second-strongest road team with 48 wins, although they probably would have trumped Minnesota’s road win total if they had played in the Central division.
In Morton’s road starts, Ray backers gained 6.3 units. Tampa Bay has won the last five games in which Morton started, although only one of those came on the road.
Unlike his counterpart, Morton has proven that the postseason moment isn’t too big for him. His most famous performance was in Game 7 in the 2017 World Series, when he secured glory for Houston by procuring the final 12 outs.
Oakland offers, in many ways, a positive venue for Morton. In three career starts in the Coliseum, Morton boasts a 1.65 ERA. This year, Morton faced the A’s once in their venue and once in Tampa Bay. In both starts, he allowed a total of six hits and one run, while pitching 13.1 innings.
Match-up wise, Morton is at his best against same-handed (i.e. right-handed) batters. They hit .202 and slug .296 against him.
This detail makes him a strong match-up against Oakland, whose lineup is rather righty-heavy as its three leaders in BA are all right-handed, for which reason Oakland performs markedly better against left-handed pitching.
Anyhow, the A’s' lineup enters postseason play in poor hitting form, regardless of the match-up. They haven’t exceeded three runs in any of their last seven games. During this seven-game span, they produced a total of 16 runs, barely over two runs per game.
Oakland counters with Sean Manaea (4-0, 1.21 ERA). For our bet to hit, we should expect him to be no better than Morton.
Manaea’s ERA looks attractive. But he’s only had five starts this season and, overall, they’ve been extremely favorable to him.
One start came against Detroit, a second came against Seattle. Both dwell in the basement of their respective division largely because of their regularly paltry offensive production.
Two starts were against Texas, a losing team and one which matches up unequivocally worse against left-handed starters based on BA and slugging rates.
So to salivate over Manaea over one positive start (against the Yankees) seems hard to justify, although it does make sense to me that Oakland wanted to start him over Mike Fiers, who suffered a catastrophe-filled September.
Luck has played a considerable role in Manaea’s initial success, which is substantiated by Manaea’s 3.42 FIP. He’s stranding runners at a 100% rate, which is unsustainable. Also, he’s yielding a .194 BABIP (batting average of balls in play) despite allowing hard contact at a 47 percent rate, which is nearly 10 percent higher than his previous career high.
Looking at the match-up, the Rays’ BA is about the same versus lefties as it is versus righties. Flexibility in personnel allows Tampa Bay to stack up against anyone.
Watch for Tommy Pham to play a key role as he bats .340 against lefties. Yandy Diaz bats .583 against them. Avi Garcia started out slow in general, but he’s typically much stronger against lefties and he’s been hot both in September and in his past seven days.
With the advantage in starting pitching, the match-up edge with a flexible lineup, and the odds discounting a strong road team, there’s plenty of betting value with Tampa Bay.
Best Bet: Rays first-half RL at -120 odds with 5Dimes
A’s vs Rays
Wednesday, October 2 2019 at 8 p.m. ET (ESPN) in Oakland Coliseum
Both broader and more specific perspectives point to a successful outing from Tampa Bay starter Charlie Morton (16-6, 3.05 ERA).
Broadly speaking, Morton enjoyed his strongest regular season. His strikeout, walk, and opposing home run rates were the best or near the best of his 12-year career. His ERA finished at an all-time low, as did his 2.81 FIP (like ERA, but factors out fielding).
One reason for his improvement is that he’s throwing his curveball, which has always been solid for him, more than ever before. Opponents are hitting .151 against this pitch.
Put into betting terms, Morton was Tampa Bay’s second-most profitable pitcher, yielding +5.6 units. He partook in his team’s overall success on the road—the Rays were the second-strongest road team with 48 wins, although they probably would have trumped Minnesota’s road win total if they had played in the Central division.
In Morton’s road starts, Ray backers gained 6.3 units. Tampa Bay has won the last five games in which Morton started, although only one of those came on the road.
Unlike his counterpart, Morton has proven that the postseason moment isn’t too big for him. His most famous performance was in Game 7 in the 2017 World Series, when he secured glory for Houston by procuring the final 12 outs.
Oakland offers, in many ways, a positive venue for Morton. In three career starts in the Coliseum, Morton boasts a 1.65 ERA. This year, Morton faced the A’s once in their venue and once in Tampa Bay. In both starts, he allowed a total of six hits and one run, while pitching 13.1 innings.
Match-up wise, Morton is at his best against same-handed (i.e. right-handed) batters. They hit .202 and slug .296 against him.
This detail makes him a strong match-up against Oakland, whose lineup is rather righty-heavy as its three leaders in BA are all right-handed, for which reason Oakland performs markedly better against left-handed pitching.
Anyhow, the A’s' lineup enters postseason play in poor hitting form, regardless of the match-up. They haven’t exceeded three runs in any of their last seven games. During this seven-game span, they produced a total of 16 runs, barely over two runs per game.
Oakland counters with Sean Manaea (4-0, 1.21 ERA). For our bet to hit, we should expect him to be no better than Morton.
Manaea’s ERA looks attractive. But he’s only had five starts this season and, overall, they’ve been extremely favorable to him.
One start came against Detroit, a second came against Seattle. Both dwell in the basement of their respective division largely because of their regularly paltry offensive production.
Two starts were against Texas, a losing team and one which matches up unequivocally worse against left-handed starters based on BA and slugging rates.
So to salivate over Manaea over one positive start (against the Yankees) seems hard to justify, although it does make sense to me that Oakland wanted to start him over Mike Fiers, who suffered a catastrophe-filled September.
Luck has played a considerable role in Manaea’s initial success, which is substantiated by Manaea’s 3.42 FIP. He’s stranding runners at a 100% rate, which is unsustainable. Also, he’s yielding a .194 BABIP (batting average of balls in play) despite allowing hard contact at a 47 percent rate, which is nearly 10 percent higher than his previous career high.
Looking at the match-up, the Rays’ BA is about the same versus lefties as it is versus righties. Flexibility in personnel allows Tampa Bay to stack up against anyone.
Watch for Tommy Pham to play a key role as he bats .340 against lefties. Yandy Diaz bats .583 against them. Avi Garcia started out slow in general, but he’s typically much stronger against lefties and he’s been hot both in September and in his past seven days.
With the advantage in starting pitching, the match-up edge with a flexible lineup, and the odds discounting a strong road team, there’s plenty of betting value with Tampa Bay.
Best Bet: Rays first-half RL at -120 odds with 5Dimes
