Best MLB Parlay Picks Today
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Friday, September 10, 2021 at 7:10 p.m. ET at Comerica Park in Detroit
Double Trouble
While Michael Wacha is correctly listed as tonight's starting pitcher for the Rays, it's been reported that Chris Archer will also see action.
It's likely that Wacha won't pitch long enough (at least five innings) to get the decision.
I liked Wacha before hearing about this strategy and I like him more because now he can concentrate more energy and intensity into fewer innings.
Wacha's Strengths
Wacha has three primary pitches: a 4-seam fastball, a cutter, and a change-up.
He's one of those pitchers who doesn't predicate his success -- success in getting strikeouts or success in general -- on throwing hard.
The rate at which he induces batters to chase his pitches out of the strike out is superb, for which reason he ranks in the 88th percentile in chase rate.
To get batters to chase, he makes use of a relatively high degree of movement in his pitches and good location.
Regarding the latter, heat maps show that he frequently places his pitches along the borders of the strike zone.
A pitch that he throws will start out appearing to land for a strike before it veers out of the strike zone where batters will try to make contact with it.
Tiger Batters vs. Wacha and Archer
One reason why I don't like Tiger batters tonight is their lack of discipline at the plate.
They rank 22nd at avoiding swinging at pitches located outside of the strike zone.
This weakness of Tiger batters plays into Wacha's strengths: Wacha loves to induce opposing batters to chase his pitches and he'll induce plenty of chasing tonight.
When Chris Archer replaces Wacha, Archer will benefit from facing a Tiger lineup whose success against his primary pitches -- the 4-seamer and slider -- has plummeted in the second half of the season, during which span it ranks 20th in slugging against these pitches from righties.
Matt Boyd
Tiger starter Matt Boyd hasn't put out a strong performance since the first-to-second week of June.
Boyd was out of commission between June 14 and August 29.
Since his return, he made two starts, both poor ones. He yielded two earned runs in four innings against Toronto and then five earned runs in four innings in Cincinnati.
Tampa Bay's Hot Lineup vs. Detroit Trends
In its last game, Tampa Bay ran into Red Sox starter Nathan Eovaldi, who is regularly excellent in his home ballpark, Fenway.
This exception against a pitcher in a great situation should not encourage you to overlook the fact that the Rays had scored five runs or more in each of their five games before that one. In three of those five games, they scored double digits.
The Rays enter Detroit tonight, therefore, in strong form. They face a Tiger team that hasn't won back-to-back games since the third-to-fourth week of August and that has shown paltry hitting form since its exceptional explosion last Friday.
Statistically, Tampa Bay concentrates its scoring rather in those middle innings, especially the fourth and fifth. This statistical fact and the attractive first-half run-line price make me want to take the Tampa Bay first-half run-line for this game.
Los Angeles Angels vs. Houston Astros
Friday, September 10, 2021 at 8:10 p.m. ET at Minute Maid Park In Houston
Angels vs. Left-Handed Pitching
Earlier in the year, the Angels were almost a must-play against left-handed pitching.
Since Houston's starter today is a lefty, it's crucial to give an update on the viability of the Angels vs. lefty pitching angle.
In short: the angle is worthless. In fact, the angle has almost reversed itself because the Angels have cooled off so markedly against left-handed pitching.
Since August 10, they have scored more than four runs one time in a full game when the opposing starting pitcher was a southpaw.
Framber Valdez's Strong Form
That recent exception -- Ryan Weathers -- is a starting pitcher with a putrid 5.34 ERA.
Framber Valdez, though, has been vastly more successful than Weathers both overall and recently.
Valdez has yielded a sub-four FIP (like ERA, but factors out fielding) in each of his last seven starts. In five of those starts, his FIP was 3.00 or below.
Unlike Weathers, Valdez is a reliable lefty.
In-Form Shohei Ohtani's vs. Astro Hitters
Angel starter Shohei Ohtani has been reliable to back all season. Recently, he's allowed two earned runs or fewer in seven of his last eight starts.
He'll be comfortable against a group of Astro batters who, in a combined total of 42 career at-bats, have mustered a .167 BA and .262 slugging rate against him.
Jose Altuve, for example, is 1-for-9 (.111) against Ohtani.
The Verdict
The Rays will rediscover their hitting prowess against Boyd while the Tigers rediscover their losing ways.
Meanwhile, Ohtani and Valdez will engage in a low-scoring pitcher's duel.
For the above reasons, parlay the Rays first-half run-line and the Angels/Astros first-half "under."
Best Bet: Rays First-Half RL at -125 & Angels/Astros First-Half Under 4 at -115 at +237 odds with Bovada
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Friday, September 10, 2021 at 7:10 p.m. ET at Comerica Park in Detroit
Double Trouble
While Michael Wacha is correctly listed as tonight's starting pitcher for the Rays, it's been reported that Chris Archer will also see action.
It's likely that Wacha won't pitch long enough (at least five innings) to get the decision.
I liked Wacha before hearing about this strategy and I like him more because now he can concentrate more energy and intensity into fewer innings.
Wacha's Strengths
Wacha has three primary pitches: a 4-seam fastball, a cutter, and a change-up.
He's one of those pitchers who doesn't predicate his success -- success in getting strikeouts or success in general -- on throwing hard.
The rate at which he induces batters to chase his pitches out of the strike out is superb, for which reason he ranks in the 88th percentile in chase rate.
To get batters to chase, he makes use of a relatively high degree of movement in his pitches and good location.
Regarding the latter, heat maps show that he frequently places his pitches along the borders of the strike zone.
A pitch that he throws will start out appearing to land for a strike before it veers out of the strike zone where batters will try to make contact with it.
Tiger Batters vs. Wacha and Archer
One reason why I don't like Tiger batters tonight is their lack of discipline at the plate.
They rank 22nd at avoiding swinging at pitches located outside of the strike zone.
This weakness of Tiger batters plays into Wacha's strengths: Wacha loves to induce opposing batters to chase his pitches and he'll induce plenty of chasing tonight.
When Chris Archer replaces Wacha, Archer will benefit from facing a Tiger lineup whose success against his primary pitches -- the 4-seamer and slider -- has plummeted in the second half of the season, during which span it ranks 20th in slugging against these pitches from righties.
Matt Boyd
Tiger starter Matt Boyd hasn't put out a strong performance since the first-to-second week of June.
Boyd was out of commission between June 14 and August 29.
Since his return, he made two starts, both poor ones. He yielded two earned runs in four innings against Toronto and then five earned runs in four innings in Cincinnati.
Tampa Bay's Hot Lineup vs. Detroit Trends
In its last game, Tampa Bay ran into Red Sox starter Nathan Eovaldi, who is regularly excellent in his home ballpark, Fenway.
This exception against a pitcher in a great situation should not encourage you to overlook the fact that the Rays had scored five runs or more in each of their five games before that one. In three of those five games, they scored double digits.
The Rays enter Detroit tonight, therefore, in strong form. They face a Tiger team that hasn't won back-to-back games since the third-to-fourth week of August and that has shown paltry hitting form since its exceptional explosion last Friday.
Statistically, Tampa Bay concentrates its scoring rather in those middle innings, especially the fourth and fifth. This statistical fact and the attractive first-half run-line price make me want to take the Tampa Bay first-half run-line for this game.
Los Angeles Angels vs. Houston Astros
Friday, September 10, 2021 at 8:10 p.m. ET at Minute Maid Park In Houston
Angels vs. Left-Handed Pitching
Earlier in the year, the Angels were almost a must-play against left-handed pitching.
Since Houston's starter today is a lefty, it's crucial to give an update on the viability of the Angels vs. lefty pitching angle.
In short: the angle is worthless. In fact, the angle has almost reversed itself because the Angels have cooled off so markedly against left-handed pitching.
Since August 10, they have scored more than four runs one time in a full game when the opposing starting pitcher was a southpaw.
Framber Valdez's Strong Form
That recent exception -- Ryan Weathers -- is a starting pitcher with a putrid 5.34 ERA.
Framber Valdez, though, has been vastly more successful than Weathers both overall and recently.
Valdez has yielded a sub-four FIP (like ERA, but factors out fielding) in each of his last seven starts. In five of those starts, his FIP was 3.00 or below.
Unlike Weathers, Valdez is a reliable lefty.
In-Form Shohei Ohtani's vs. Astro Hitters
Angel starter Shohei Ohtani has been reliable to back all season. Recently, he's allowed two earned runs or fewer in seven of his last eight starts.
He'll be comfortable against a group of Astro batters who, in a combined total of 42 career at-bats, have mustered a .167 BA and .262 slugging rate against him.
Jose Altuve, for example, is 1-for-9 (.111) against Ohtani.
The Verdict
The Rays will rediscover their hitting prowess against Boyd while the Tigers rediscover their losing ways.
Meanwhile, Ohtani and Valdez will engage in a low-scoring pitcher's duel.
For the above reasons, parlay the Rays first-half run-line and the Angels/Astros first-half "under."
Best Bet: Rays First-Half RL at -125 & Angels/Astros First-Half Under 4 at -115 at +237 odds with Bovada
