Best MLB Parlay Picks Today
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox
Wednesday, September 8, 2021 at 7:10 p.m. ET at Fenway Park in Boston
Bounce-Back Opportunity for McClanahan
Tampa Bay starter Shane McClanahan is coming off a tough-luck outing against these same Red Sox.
On September 2, he yielded an unfortunately high .571 BABIP (batting average of balls in play), despite inducing fairly average (by his standards) levels of soft, medium, and hard contact.
His 1.17 FIP (like ERA, but factors out fielding) and 1.88 xFIP, (like FIP, but calculates how many home runs a pitcher should have allowed by accounting for how many fly balls he has allowed and for the league average ratio of home runs to fly balls) show how strongly he did perform in that outing.
McClanahan vs. Red Sox Batters
McClanahan's tough-luck outing against the Red Sox allowed their collective BA against him to skyrocket since he's only seen them in 45 at-bats.
While 45 at-bats present a relatively small data sample, his overall success against Boston batters in promising.
They slug a paltry .378 with him on the mound him with a combined total of two extra-base hits against him.
Nathan Eovaldi at Home
Red Sox starter Nathan Eovaldi is in a great spot at home, where he pitches distinctly better than on the road.
This season, his home ERA is 3.08, compared to 4.87 on the road.
Likewise, his home FIP is 2.36, compared to 3.88 outside of Fenway.
Given his improved ability at home, it's bizarre to note that the "under" hits at a vastly stronger rate in his road games.
For whatever reason, he has been getting more run support at home, where his lineup has produced over 15 runs for him multiple times.
But there is no logical reason why this tendency to receive more run support at home, beyond the obvious fact that lineups typically perform better in their home ballpark, should continue.
If we like McClanahan -- which we do -- and we like Eovaldi, then we need to take the first-half "under."
Eovaldi vs. Ray Batters
As one would expect given Eovaldi's season-long home/away numbers, Eovaldi's one bad start against the Rays came in Tampa Bay.
When facing these Rays at home this season, Eovaldi has allowed two earned runs in 14 innings.
Expect little from Randy Arozarena, for example. He's 1-for-11 (.091) in his career facing Eovaldi.
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Wednesday, September 8, 2021 at 7:40 p.m. ET at American Family Field in Milwaukee
In Gibson We Trust
A few times this year, Philly starter Kyle Gibson has laid an absolute egg.
Thankfully, Gibson got his occasional catastrophe out of the way in his last start.
Gibson vs. Brewer Batters
Today's start is a great bounce-back opportunity for him because of his superb success against Brewer batters.
They have collected a combined total of 130 at-bats against him, producing a .208 BA and .285 slugging rate.
Stated differently, in those 130 at-bats Gibson has allowed only four doubles and two home runs.
Expect little from Avisail Garcia, for example, who's 5-for-28 (.179) with seven strikeouts in his career against Gibson, whom he faced in a White Sox uniform when Gibson pitched for the Twins.
Because of guys like Garcia, Brewer hitters have almost as many strikeouts as hits against Gibson.
Freddy Peralta
Brewer starter Freddy Peralta is hard to like as the favored pitcher because he remains unsharp after his four-run, two-inning outing in his first post-injury start last week.
Philly batters have seen only very little of him, but Didi Gregorius and Bryce Harper have hit homers off of him.
Phillies as Underdogs
Betting-wise, Philadelphia has been great to back as the underdog this season.
In this role, the Phillies are generating +12 units, whereas they're costing their backers 10.9 units when they're the favored team.
The Verdict
The total is too high in Boston since McClanahan is in a nice bounce-back spot and Eovaldi flourishes at home.
Meanwhile, the Phillies will continue to be profitable underdogs to back thanks to their pitching advantage.
Best Bet: Parlay Rays/Red Sox First-Half Under 5 at -105 & Phillies First-Half ML at +130 at +349 odds with Bovada
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox
Wednesday, September 8, 2021 at 7:10 p.m. ET at Fenway Park in Boston
Bounce-Back Opportunity for McClanahan
Tampa Bay starter Shane McClanahan is coming off a tough-luck outing against these same Red Sox.
On September 2, he yielded an unfortunately high .571 BABIP (batting average of balls in play), despite inducing fairly average (by his standards) levels of soft, medium, and hard contact.
His 1.17 FIP (like ERA, but factors out fielding) and 1.88 xFIP, (like FIP, but calculates how many home runs a pitcher should have allowed by accounting for how many fly balls he has allowed and for the league average ratio of home runs to fly balls) show how strongly he did perform in that outing.
McClanahan vs. Red Sox Batters
McClanahan's tough-luck outing against the Red Sox allowed their collective BA against him to skyrocket since he's only seen them in 45 at-bats.
While 45 at-bats present a relatively small data sample, his overall success against Boston batters in promising.
They slug a paltry .378 with him on the mound him with a combined total of two extra-base hits against him.
Nathan Eovaldi at Home
Red Sox starter Nathan Eovaldi is in a great spot at home, where he pitches distinctly better than on the road.
This season, his home ERA is 3.08, compared to 4.87 on the road.
Likewise, his home FIP is 2.36, compared to 3.88 outside of Fenway.
Given his improved ability at home, it's bizarre to note that the "under" hits at a vastly stronger rate in his road games.
For whatever reason, he has been getting more run support at home, where his lineup has produced over 15 runs for him multiple times.
But there is no logical reason why this tendency to receive more run support at home, beyond the obvious fact that lineups typically perform better in their home ballpark, should continue.
If we like McClanahan -- which we do -- and we like Eovaldi, then we need to take the first-half "under."
Eovaldi vs. Ray Batters
As one would expect given Eovaldi's season-long home/away numbers, Eovaldi's one bad start against the Rays came in Tampa Bay.
When facing these Rays at home this season, Eovaldi has allowed two earned runs in 14 innings.
Expect little from Randy Arozarena, for example. He's 1-for-11 (.091) in his career facing Eovaldi.
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Wednesday, September 8, 2021 at 7:40 p.m. ET at American Family Field in Milwaukee
In Gibson We Trust
A few times this year, Philly starter Kyle Gibson has laid an absolute egg.
Thankfully, Gibson got his occasional catastrophe out of the way in his last start.
Gibson vs. Brewer Batters
Today's start is a great bounce-back opportunity for him because of his superb success against Brewer batters.
They have collected a combined total of 130 at-bats against him, producing a .208 BA and .285 slugging rate.
Stated differently, in those 130 at-bats Gibson has allowed only four doubles and two home runs.
Expect little from Avisail Garcia, for example, who's 5-for-28 (.179) with seven strikeouts in his career against Gibson, whom he faced in a White Sox uniform when Gibson pitched for the Twins.
Because of guys like Garcia, Brewer hitters have almost as many strikeouts as hits against Gibson.
Freddy Peralta
Brewer starter Freddy Peralta is hard to like as the favored pitcher because he remains unsharp after his four-run, two-inning outing in his first post-injury start last week.
Philly batters have seen only very little of him, but Didi Gregorius and Bryce Harper have hit homers off of him.
Phillies as Underdogs
Betting-wise, Philadelphia has been great to back as the underdog this season.
In this role, the Phillies are generating +12 units, whereas they're costing their backers 10.9 units when they're the favored team.
The Verdict
The total is too high in Boston since McClanahan is in a nice bounce-back spot and Eovaldi flourishes at home.
Meanwhile, the Phillies will continue to be profitable underdogs to back thanks to their pitching advantage.
Best Bet: Parlay Rays/Red Sox First-Half Under 5 at -105 & Phillies First-Half ML at +130 at +349 odds with Bovada
