Last Chance Value Picks for Betting Ravens vs. Browns
Baltimore Ravens vs. Cleveland Browns
Monday, December 14, 2020 at 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN) at FirstEnergy Stadium in Cleveland, Ohio
Jarvis Landry
Over/Under 4.5 Receptions
Targets
The absence of Odell Beckham Jr. is a blessing for Cleveland’s offense. Quarterback Baker Mayfield no longer feels pressured to throw the ball to the diva wide receiver.
Instead, Baker loves throwing the ball to Jarvis Landry. He has 78 targets, 44 more than any other Cleveland pass-catcher.
Landry has been favored a lot especially lately, In Cleveland’s last two games, he has been targeted a combined total of 21 times.
Marlon Humphrey
It’s true that the Raven secondary is very good. You might be afraid of trusting Landry because Marlon Humphrey will try to cover him.
While Humphrey is a great cornerback, his greatness consists in his ability to limit his opposing wide receiver’s yardage and touchdown totals.
So while Humphrey ranks highly in categories like yards per reception allowed, he ranks a drastically more modest 61st in receptions allowed.
We do not care if Landry only has 10 yards or fails to score a touchdown. He will be targeted many times and he will face the right-matchup to hit the ‘over’ on receptions.
Best Bet: Landry Over 4.5 Receptions at -143 with Bovada
Baker Mayfield
Over/Under 217.5 Yards
Humphrey
This bet builds off of the last one. While Landry remains Mayfield’s top target, he will struggle to get many yards off of his receptions.
Five of the last six wide receivers that Humphrey shadowed failed to exceed 50 yards. The one exception barely exceeded this receiving yardage total and required 12 targets to do so.
Options
Without many yards for Landry, it’s hard to imagine which other wide receiver will accrue many yards. Without Odell Beckham, Mayfield failed to reach 205 passing yards in all three games where Landry failed to exceed 52 receiving yards.
Mayfield has not developed the anticipated chemistry with his new tight end from Atlanta.
Otherwise, Mayfield’s other favorite target is Rashard Higgins, who has played great in a couple outings against awful pass defenses like Cincinnati’s and Tennessee’s, but is otherwise typically quiet.
Pressure
Don’t let Mayfield’s recent passing numbers scare you off of betting the “under” in passing yards. He’s thrived because he’s had a clean pocket with sufficient time to throw.
Baltimore will be completely different than the low-ranked pass defenses of Tennessee and Jacksonville.
The Ravens own the highest blitz rate in the NFL. Their aggressiveness makes them a terrible match-up for Mayfield.
Under pressure, Mayfield ranks 38th in passer rating. When facing pressure, Mayfield has a 32.0 passer rating with one touchdown to four interceptions.
He’s faced two defenses that rank top-five in pressure rate, Baltimore and Pittsburgh, and he failed to reach 200 passing yards against either defense, even though he had opportunities to accrue garbage-time stats.
Best Bet: Mayfield Under 217.5 Passing Yards at -114 with Bovada
Gus Edwards
Over/Under 31.5 Rushing Yards
Snaps
Gus Edwards does not receive a lot of rushing opportunities. This is especially true with the developing surge of rookie running back JK Dobbins.
Whereas Edwards hasn’t attempted even 10 rushes in any of his past three games, Dobbins has seen 26 rush attempts in his past two games combined.
Offensive Line
Baltimore’s run-blocking unit is a mess.
Eight-time Pro Bowler Marshal Yanda retired from the guard position. Ronnie Stanley, a Pro Bowler at left tackle, landed on Injured Reserve.
So right tackle Orlando Brown had to move to left tackle.
Rookie Tyre Phillips, who was placed on IR and is now healthy, has had to move from right guard to right tackle.
Browns Run Defense
Edwards’ biggest games have come before Dobbins started earning regularly more rush attempts and they have come against bottom-ranked run defenses like Houston’s.
But Cleveland ranks eighth in opposing rushing yards per game.
The Brown defensive line gets credit with Larry Ogunjobi stepping up to secure the interior.
Likewise, with Sione Takitaki, the Browns boast higher-quality linebackers that, like Ogunjobi, are earning higher grades from PFF.
Of course, Garrett is a run-stopper, too, and he’ll feast upon the rookie Phillips.
Expect Edwards to see too little attention and find too little production against this Cleveland defense who Baltimore will want to exploit in the air because top cornerback Denzel Ward is still out.
Best Bet: Edwards Under 31.5 Rushing Yards at -114 with Bovada
Baltimore Ravens vs. Cleveland Browns
Monday, December 14, 2020 at 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN) at FirstEnergy Stadium in Cleveland, Ohio
Jarvis Landry
Over/Under 4.5 Receptions
Targets
The absence of Odell Beckham Jr. is a blessing for Cleveland’s offense. Quarterback Baker Mayfield no longer feels pressured to throw the ball to the diva wide receiver.
Instead, Baker loves throwing the ball to Jarvis Landry. He has 78 targets, 44 more than any other Cleveland pass-catcher.
Landry has been favored a lot especially lately, In Cleveland’s last two games, he has been targeted a combined total of 21 times.
Marlon Humphrey
It’s true that the Raven secondary is very good. You might be afraid of trusting Landry because Marlon Humphrey will try to cover him.
While Humphrey is a great cornerback, his greatness consists in his ability to limit his opposing wide receiver’s yardage and touchdown totals.
So while Humphrey ranks highly in categories like yards per reception allowed, he ranks a drastically more modest 61st in receptions allowed.
We do not care if Landry only has 10 yards or fails to score a touchdown. He will be targeted many times and he will face the right-matchup to hit the ‘over’ on receptions.
Best Bet: Landry Over 4.5 Receptions at -143 with Bovada
Baker Mayfield
Over/Under 217.5 Yards
Humphrey
This bet builds off of the last one. While Landry remains Mayfield’s top target, he will struggle to get many yards off of his receptions.
Five of the last six wide receivers that Humphrey shadowed failed to exceed 50 yards. The one exception barely exceeded this receiving yardage total and required 12 targets to do so.
Options
Without many yards for Landry, it’s hard to imagine which other wide receiver will accrue many yards. Without Odell Beckham, Mayfield failed to reach 205 passing yards in all three games where Landry failed to exceed 52 receiving yards.
Mayfield has not developed the anticipated chemistry with his new tight end from Atlanta.
Otherwise, Mayfield’s other favorite target is Rashard Higgins, who has played great in a couple outings against awful pass defenses like Cincinnati’s and Tennessee’s, but is otherwise typically quiet.
Pressure
Don’t let Mayfield’s recent passing numbers scare you off of betting the “under” in passing yards. He’s thrived because he’s had a clean pocket with sufficient time to throw.
Baltimore will be completely different than the low-ranked pass defenses of Tennessee and Jacksonville.
The Ravens own the highest blitz rate in the NFL. Their aggressiveness makes them a terrible match-up for Mayfield.
Under pressure, Mayfield ranks 38th in passer rating. When facing pressure, Mayfield has a 32.0 passer rating with one touchdown to four interceptions.
He’s faced two defenses that rank top-five in pressure rate, Baltimore and Pittsburgh, and he failed to reach 200 passing yards against either defense, even though he had opportunities to accrue garbage-time stats.
Best Bet: Mayfield Under 217.5 Passing Yards at -114 with Bovada
Gus Edwards
Over/Under 31.5 Rushing Yards
Snaps
Gus Edwards does not receive a lot of rushing opportunities. This is especially true with the developing surge of rookie running back JK Dobbins.
Whereas Edwards hasn’t attempted even 10 rushes in any of his past three games, Dobbins has seen 26 rush attempts in his past two games combined.
Offensive Line
Baltimore’s run-blocking unit is a mess.
Eight-time Pro Bowler Marshal Yanda retired from the guard position. Ronnie Stanley, a Pro Bowler at left tackle, landed on Injured Reserve.
So right tackle Orlando Brown had to move to left tackle.
Rookie Tyre Phillips, who was placed on IR and is now healthy, has had to move from right guard to right tackle.
Browns Run Defense
Edwards’ biggest games have come before Dobbins started earning regularly more rush attempts and they have come against bottom-ranked run defenses like Houston’s.
But Cleveland ranks eighth in opposing rushing yards per game.
The Brown defensive line gets credit with Larry Ogunjobi stepping up to secure the interior.
Likewise, with Sione Takitaki, the Browns boast higher-quality linebackers that, like Ogunjobi, are earning higher grades from PFF.
Of course, Garrett is a run-stopper, too, and he’ll feast upon the rookie Phillips.
Expect Edwards to see too little attention and find too little production against this Cleveland defense who Baltimore will want to exploit in the air because top cornerback Denzel Ward is still out.
Best Bet: Edwards Under 31.5 Rushing Yards at -114 with Bovada
