tuck321
Not all those who wander are lost
Today I lost on
1. The Brewers. It was a stupid pick as I was laying real money odds against a quality team that was in winning mode, with a decent pitcher and my team had no motivational edge. Got what I deserved
2. I lost with Boston. This was a play on one of the best home teams in baseball in the day where they are close to unbeatable and I had a quality young pitcher going against a starting pitcher who was just not good at all in day games. I had to lay 13 cents. I thought fair value was at least 60 cents and I lost with a strange decision by the manager when he selected a relief pitcher with a 2 run lead in the 7th with an era vs the Angels over 9. Clean hands here. Those who won with the Angels deserve the money but may have problems in gambling situations generally.
3. I lost with under in WS. My hands are not clean here. I did not check the weather. This was in general a good play I think on the under but you probably should pass on it if you are aware of the possibility of rain delays. Weak action by me.
4. I did not play Oakland. No idea why I did not play that. Lirano had shown nothing and Minn had a pitcher they liked going against a team they dominate the next day. Oakland had been winning and were going with a pitcher they had been winning with who was playing quite reasonably. Just weak action.
5. I did not post but did play Houston. I mention this only to be accurate. I do not keep records and will never start. Basic concepts. Hot team playing a weak team that usually loses to them is playing an unknown pitcher getting solid plus money. Not a hard play. Just obvious action.
6. I won with the WS posted. Want to just win? Just play the home team when Emmel is the umpire. Have mentioned him many times but it appaently does not stick.
7. I won posted with the Giants. Spent some of the morning listening to a podcat of the Frisco Chronicle on the Giants that encouraged me and how much does it take to bet against a dead team getting plus money.
8. I won posted with Arizona. Real brain teaser. Better team. Plus money. A total reversal from the joke Haren game where a over rated pitcher was given a silly spread. Here a fine road pitcher going for the better team was given 0 respect. Actually got some ALT Runline in that one.
9. I won posted with under in KC second game where I gave I think clearly my reasoning.
10. One other loser. I lost with Tomko first half plus .5 and ml. I stand by that play. Carmona was on bad rest, playing at a site where he had been hit very hard and where the players on the current team had good knowledge of him. No one on the Cleveland team had had had much contact with Tomko and he was playing on good rest when he had been playing reasonably. Carmona had nothing. He pitched like a clown. Tomko pitched like someone on drugs. I lost but do not fault myself.
I was sloppy with weather on one game. I just made bad decisions on Oakland and the Brewers.
People make mistakes. You get pushed for time and things happen. But I did not bet the Angels. I did not play LA. I did not play joke pitchers in Pitt as favorites starting for a weak team. I tried to stay in a reasonable framework. And surprise! I won money.
1. The Brewers. It was a stupid pick as I was laying real money odds against a quality team that was in winning mode, with a decent pitcher and my team had no motivational edge. Got what I deserved
2. I lost with Boston. This was a play on one of the best home teams in baseball in the day where they are close to unbeatable and I had a quality young pitcher going against a starting pitcher who was just not good at all in day games. I had to lay 13 cents. I thought fair value was at least 60 cents and I lost with a strange decision by the manager when he selected a relief pitcher with a 2 run lead in the 7th with an era vs the Angels over 9. Clean hands here. Those who won with the Angels deserve the money but may have problems in gambling situations generally.
3. I lost with under in WS. My hands are not clean here. I did not check the weather. This was in general a good play I think on the under but you probably should pass on it if you are aware of the possibility of rain delays. Weak action by me.
4. I did not play Oakland. No idea why I did not play that. Lirano had shown nothing and Minn had a pitcher they liked going against a team they dominate the next day. Oakland had been winning and were going with a pitcher they had been winning with who was playing quite reasonably. Just weak action.
5. I did not post but did play Houston. I mention this only to be accurate. I do not keep records and will never start. Basic concepts. Hot team playing a weak team that usually loses to them is playing an unknown pitcher getting solid plus money. Not a hard play. Just obvious action.
6. I won with the WS posted. Want to just win? Just play the home team when Emmel is the umpire. Have mentioned him many times but it appaently does not stick.
7. I won posted with the Giants. Spent some of the morning listening to a podcat of the Frisco Chronicle on the Giants that encouraged me and how much does it take to bet against a dead team getting plus money.
8. I won posted with Arizona. Real brain teaser. Better team. Plus money. A total reversal from the joke Haren game where a over rated pitcher was given a silly spread. Here a fine road pitcher going for the better team was given 0 respect. Actually got some ALT Runline in that one.
9. I won posted with under in KC second game where I gave I think clearly my reasoning.
10. One other loser. I lost with Tomko first half plus .5 and ml. I stand by that play. Carmona was on bad rest, playing at a site where he had been hit very hard and where the players on the current team had good knowledge of him. No one on the Cleveland team had had had much contact with Tomko and he was playing on good rest when he had been playing reasonably. Carmona had nothing. He pitched like a clown. Tomko pitched like someone on drugs. I lost but do not fault myself.
I was sloppy with weather on one game. I just made bad decisions on Oakland and the Brewers.
People make mistakes. You get pushed for time and things happen. But I did not bet the Angels. I did not play LA. I did not play joke pitchers in Pitt as favorites starting for a weak team. I tried to stay in a reasonable framework. And surprise! I won money.
