Ranking Divisional Round Offenses
1. Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs rank number one in points per game with 35.3. Much of that success was due to the insanity of Patrick Mahomes. There was the no-look pass and the left-handed pass. On the season, he threw for 50 touchdowns and 5,000 yards. Too much has been made about the loss of Kareem Hunt. Damien Williams has been electric as his replacement, averaging 5.1 YPC and seven yards per reception. Since Williams took over, the Chiefs scored 28 against L.A.’s strong defense, 31 in Seattle, where Seattle has one of the best home field advantages, and 35 in a non-competitive win against the Raiders.
2. Indianapolis Colts
What really distinguishes Indy’s offense is its offensive line. Despite battling some key injuries at different points during the season, they consistently do an awesome job of protecting Andrew Luck, ranking second in adjusted sack rate. The run game is also significantly better with a now healthy center Ryan Kelly. Last week against a highly-ranked Houston front seven, Marlon Mack ran for 148 yards on 6.2 YPC. The wide receiving crew is led by T.Y. Hilton, who accrued 76 receptions and 1,270 yards. Tight end Eric Ebron is also a huge factor. He added 750 yards and 13 touchdowns. Defenses have proven able to stop one player, but then the other player has a huge game. The Colts’ offense has been well-tested, facing four defenses that rank in the top-eight in scoring in the past five weeks and three of them on the road. The Colts scored 33 in Tennessee (with a little help from short fields), although the Titans allowed 18.9 points per home game, and 20+ in two games in Houston, although the Texans allowed 17.4 points per home game.
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3. L.A. Rams
The Rams suffered a three-game stretch after their bye week during which they looked mostly lackluster. Granted, they put up 30 points against Detroit. They laid an absolute clunker in a six-poin toss in Chicago and mustered 23 points in a loss vs the Eagles. In those games, Jared Goff’s passer rating was under 80. The big problem with the Rams’ offense—specifically its pass attack—was that it became much less explosive. Teams grew particularly keen on their play-action, which had been effective. But during that three game-stretch, play-action throws generated a 32 quarterback rating whereas it had yielded a 105 passer rating before that stretch. The Rams did score a lot in its final two games against bottom-feeders Arizona and San Francisco. It’s hard to take away what the Rams have accomplished during the whole of the season. They have the second-highest scoring offense. They enjoy two receivers in Robert Woods and Brandin Cooks who have over 1,200 receiving yards and one of the best running backs in Todd Gurley, who has run for 1,251 yards and 17 touchdowns.
4. New Orleans Saints
The Saints are another offense that has generated worry towards the end of the season via a couple clunkers in which it produced 10 points in Dallas and 12 in Carolina. The Saints have a Hall-of-Famer in quarterback Drew Brees, two starter-caliber running backs in Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram. Both average over 4.5 YPC and Kamara is a prolific pass-catcher out of the backfield and in open space. Crucially, the Saints’ offensive line has two Pro Bowlers—left tackle Terron Armstead and center Max Unger—who have helped the Saints’ offense rank top-10 in short yardage situations, stuff rate, and sack rate. The Saints also enjoy an All-Pro at wide receiver in Michael Thomas. The main problem with the Saints is that if a defense can eliminate Thomas, the rest of its receiving crew is very weak, consisting largely of unproven youngsters and aging veterans. None of them have over 430 yards receiving. Carolina, in its 12-9 loss versus New Orleans, was one team that recently showed how easily frustrated New Orleans’ offense is without an effective Thomas. In the Saints’ last three games in which Thomas accrued fewer than 50 receiving yards, New Orleans scored 14 points or fewer.
5. Los Angeles Chargers
Like the Saints, L.A. possesses a Hall-of-Famer at quarterback, two solid running backs in Melvin Gordon and Austin Ekeler who average over 5 YPC, and an elite wide receiver in Keenan Allen, who accrued 1,196 yards receiving. What makes L.A. inferior to New Orleans is its offensive line, which ranks in the bottom half in short yardage situations and stuff rate and 13th in adjusted sack rate.
6. New England Patriots
An aging Tom Brady, Julian Edelman, and the rest. Besides its inconsistency in scoring from one week to the next, the biggest problem with the offense is its lack of a deep threat. The Pats lack depth at wide receiver, which they tried to improve by acquiring Josh Gordon. Gordon is out of the league, though, and he had been an important deep threat. Gronk is slower, the running backs are good but not great. The pass-blocking looks better statistically because of Brady’s quick release. Overall, the offensive line is overrated because of how well it has done against weak defensive lines and injury-laden ones like Kansas City without Justin Houston and Indianapolis with several injuries, while it really struggled with the likes of Tennessee.
7. Dallas Cowboys
Ezekiel Elliott is an elite running back and receiver Amari Cooper is finally showing why he was a first-round draft pick. But i’m not sold on Dallas’ pass attack. Its offensive line ranks fifth-to-last in adjusted sack rate. Moreover, Dak Prescott ranks 13th in passing yards and isn’t a big-play passer. He’s especially weak against zone-heavy defenses, which helps explain why Dallas only had 10 points through three quarters against Seattle and was shut out by Indy. The Cowboys are good at accruing time of possession, but only rank 22nd in points per game.
8. Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles rank slightly higher than Dallas in points per game, but I don’t find them as promising because their offense shows less balance. Partly thanks to some key injuries, the Eagles rank 29th in rushing yards per game. In other words, Dallas has a Zeke Elliott, the Eagles do not.
1. Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs rank number one in points per game with 35.3. Much of that success was due to the insanity of Patrick Mahomes. There was the no-look pass and the left-handed pass. On the season, he threw for 50 touchdowns and 5,000 yards. Too much has been made about the loss of Kareem Hunt. Damien Williams has been electric as his replacement, averaging 5.1 YPC and seven yards per reception. Since Williams took over, the Chiefs scored 28 against L.A.’s strong defense, 31 in Seattle, where Seattle has one of the best home field advantages, and 35 in a non-competitive win against the Raiders.
2. Indianapolis Colts
What really distinguishes Indy’s offense is its offensive line. Despite battling some key injuries at different points during the season, they consistently do an awesome job of protecting Andrew Luck, ranking second in adjusted sack rate. The run game is also significantly better with a now healthy center Ryan Kelly. Last week against a highly-ranked Houston front seven, Marlon Mack ran for 148 yards on 6.2 YPC. The wide receiving crew is led by T.Y. Hilton, who accrued 76 receptions and 1,270 yards. Tight end Eric Ebron is also a huge factor. He added 750 yards and 13 touchdowns. Defenses have proven able to stop one player, but then the other player has a huge game. The Colts’ offense has been well-tested, facing four defenses that rank in the top-eight in scoring in the past five weeks and three of them on the road. The Colts scored 33 in Tennessee (with a little help from short fields), although the Titans allowed 18.9 points per home game, and 20+ in two games in Houston, although the Texans allowed 17.4 points per home game.
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3. L.A. Rams
The Rams suffered a three-game stretch after their bye week during which they looked mostly lackluster. Granted, they put up 30 points against Detroit. They laid an absolute clunker in a six-poin toss in Chicago and mustered 23 points in a loss vs the Eagles. In those games, Jared Goff’s passer rating was under 80. The big problem with the Rams’ offense—specifically its pass attack—was that it became much less explosive. Teams grew particularly keen on their play-action, which had been effective. But during that three game-stretch, play-action throws generated a 32 quarterback rating whereas it had yielded a 105 passer rating before that stretch. The Rams did score a lot in its final two games against bottom-feeders Arizona and San Francisco. It’s hard to take away what the Rams have accomplished during the whole of the season. They have the second-highest scoring offense. They enjoy two receivers in Robert Woods and Brandin Cooks who have over 1,200 receiving yards and one of the best running backs in Todd Gurley, who has run for 1,251 yards and 17 touchdowns.
4. New Orleans Saints
The Saints are another offense that has generated worry towards the end of the season via a couple clunkers in which it produced 10 points in Dallas and 12 in Carolina. The Saints have a Hall-of-Famer in quarterback Drew Brees, two starter-caliber running backs in Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram. Both average over 4.5 YPC and Kamara is a prolific pass-catcher out of the backfield and in open space. Crucially, the Saints’ offensive line has two Pro Bowlers—left tackle Terron Armstead and center Max Unger—who have helped the Saints’ offense rank top-10 in short yardage situations, stuff rate, and sack rate. The Saints also enjoy an All-Pro at wide receiver in Michael Thomas. The main problem with the Saints is that if a defense can eliminate Thomas, the rest of its receiving crew is very weak, consisting largely of unproven youngsters and aging veterans. None of them have over 430 yards receiving. Carolina, in its 12-9 loss versus New Orleans, was one team that recently showed how easily frustrated New Orleans’ offense is without an effective Thomas. In the Saints’ last three games in which Thomas accrued fewer than 50 receiving yards, New Orleans scored 14 points or fewer.
5. Los Angeles Chargers
Like the Saints, L.A. possesses a Hall-of-Famer at quarterback, two solid running backs in Melvin Gordon and Austin Ekeler who average over 5 YPC, and an elite wide receiver in Keenan Allen, who accrued 1,196 yards receiving. What makes L.A. inferior to New Orleans is its offensive line, which ranks in the bottom half in short yardage situations and stuff rate and 13th in adjusted sack rate.
6. New England Patriots
An aging Tom Brady, Julian Edelman, and the rest. Besides its inconsistency in scoring from one week to the next, the biggest problem with the offense is its lack of a deep threat. The Pats lack depth at wide receiver, which they tried to improve by acquiring Josh Gordon. Gordon is out of the league, though, and he had been an important deep threat. Gronk is slower, the running backs are good but not great. The pass-blocking looks better statistically because of Brady’s quick release. Overall, the offensive line is overrated because of how well it has done against weak defensive lines and injury-laden ones like Kansas City without Justin Houston and Indianapolis with several injuries, while it really struggled with the likes of Tennessee.
7. Dallas Cowboys
Ezekiel Elliott is an elite running back and receiver Amari Cooper is finally showing why he was a first-round draft pick. But i’m not sold on Dallas’ pass attack. Its offensive line ranks fifth-to-last in adjusted sack rate. Moreover, Dak Prescott ranks 13th in passing yards and isn’t a big-play passer. He’s especially weak against zone-heavy defenses, which helps explain why Dallas only had 10 points through three quarters against Seattle and was shut out by Indy. The Cowboys are good at accruing time of possession, but only rank 22nd in points per game.
8. Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles rank slightly higher than Dallas in points per game, but I don’t find them as promising because their offense shows less balance. Partly thanks to some key injuries, the Eagles rank 29th in rushing yards per game. In other words, Dallas has a Zeke Elliott, the Eagles do not.
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