MLB Parlay Picks of the Day
Blurb: Wednesday’s MLB betting card will keep us busy from the early afternoon through the evening. Let’s create a parlay to make the day extra profitable.
Meta: Wednesday parlay stats, analysis, predictions, previews. Click here for our free MLB betting picks!
Top Sportsbooks have released their odds for a tremendous number of baseball games today.
Two in particular catch my eye: Texas vs. Los Angeles Angels and Pittsburgh vs. Detroit.
You should expect a clear winner in each game, for reasons that I will explain.
Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Angels
Wednesday, April 21, 2021 at 4:07 p.m. ET at Angel Stadium in Anaheim, California
Don’t Worry About Jose Quintana
It would be a shame to miss a strong betting opportunity because you are misled by Jose Quintana’s current 16.20 ERA.
For starters, he’s only pitched in two games. But in case two bad outings suffice to worry you, let’s take a deeper look into them.
His FIP (like ERA, but factors out fielding) is 3.69, which is a good number.
He is able to perform well because his pitches remain similar in terms of the velocity and movement that they possessed last year.
With his quality, he’s able to induce batters to swing at a higher rate of his pitches outside the zone than at almost any other point in his career.
Quintana just needs to throw more strikes in order to avoid walking as many batters. He didn’t have this problem with walks during Spring Training and there’s no reason for it to continue.
There is nothing physically wrong with him. Instead, he’s encountering a lot of bad luck, which is evident in the ridiculously high BABIP (batting average of balls in play) that he’s allowing and that’s contributing to this gross disparity between his ERA and his FIP.
Quintana vs. Texas Batters
Completely unlike Quintana’s first two opponents, Texas matches up poorly with Quintana.
Texas ranks 25th in hitting .207 against left-handed pitchers.
From the lefty Quintana, Ranger batters will see a healthy mixture of curveballs, fastballs, change-ups, and sinkers. He throws each pitch over 20 percent of the time, but none of the pitches as much as 30 percent of the time.
Quintana has always been solid about playing his pitches well off each other, for example alternating between a high fastball and a curveball that changes the batter’s eye level with its low placement.
Against these four pitches from lefties, Texas ranks 26th in slugging.
Unlike Quintana’s first two opponents, the Rangers can be said to have a rather lefty-heavy lineup.
Joey Gallo is a lefty. Its active leader in slugging, Nate Lowe, is also a lefty.
Quintana can shut guys like them down. Lefties are hitting only .143 so far against Quintana.
Mike Foltynewicz
Ranger starter Mike Foltynewicz does not enjoy the same level of variety as Quintana.
The new Ranger pitcher will mix up a fastball, slider and sinker. He throws each pitch with between 20 and 40 percent frequency.
Foltynewicz has been struggling, too, only the underlying metrics like FIP don’t paint a redeeming picture for him like they do for Quintana.
The 0-3 starter will move to 0-4 tonight as he goes against an Angel lineup that ranks 10th in slugging against his three favorite pitches from righties.
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Detroit Tigers
Wednesday, April 21, at 6:40 p.m. ET at Comerica Park in Detroit
Mitch Keller
Pirate starter Mitch Keller relies primarily on his fastball, slider, and curveball. All three pitches combine to make up 95 percent of his arsenal.
His performances thus far have been consistently predictable: he performs well against the teams that do not tend to hit his type of pitches well and he is surer to perform poorly against the teams that do.
Detroit is one of those teams that match up well against Keller because it ranks fourth in slugging against Keller’s three favorite pitches from righties.
The Tigers boast a bevy of batters — like Jeimer Candelario and Willi Castro to name a couple -- who can bat from the opposite side of the plate.
This versatility in personnel is important against a pitcher in Keller who really struggles against guys batting from the left side of the plate.
So far, lefties are hitting .385 and slugging .654 against Keller.
Spencer Turnbull
Detroit starter Spencer Turnbull is well-trained, fit, fresh, healthy, and ready to make his season debut after preparing at an alternate training site after he recovered from COVID.
Turnbull does not have the problem against opposite-handed batters that Keller does.
Last year, lefties hit only .218 and slugged .319 against Turnbull, partly because he possesses a classic weapon against opposite-handed batters with his effective change-up.
Overall, Turnbull promises to be effective today because the Pirates rank 26th in slugging against his three favorite pitches — the fastball, sinker, and slider — from righties.
Tarik Skubal should see some extra pitching time today since Turnbull probably won’t go more than five innings.
Pittsburgh’s lefty-laden lineup will continue to struggle against the lefty Skubal as the Pirates rank 24th in slugging against lefties.
Parlay Verdict
The Angels will outpace Texas with their pitching advantage while Turnbull and company will out-duel the struggling Keller.
For the above reasons, parlay the Angels money-line with the Tigers money-line.
Best Bet: Parlay Angels ML at -166 & Tigers ML at -116 at +198 odds with Heritage
Blurb: Wednesday’s MLB betting card will keep us busy from the early afternoon through the evening. Let’s create a parlay to make the day extra profitable.
Meta: Wednesday parlay stats, analysis, predictions, previews. Click here for our free MLB betting picks!
Top Sportsbooks have released their odds for a tremendous number of baseball games today.
Two in particular catch my eye: Texas vs. Los Angeles Angels and Pittsburgh vs. Detroit.
You should expect a clear winner in each game, for reasons that I will explain.
Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Angels
Wednesday, April 21, 2021 at 4:07 p.m. ET at Angel Stadium in Anaheim, California
Don’t Worry About Jose Quintana
It would be a shame to miss a strong betting opportunity because you are misled by Jose Quintana’s current 16.20 ERA.
For starters, he’s only pitched in two games. But in case two bad outings suffice to worry you, let’s take a deeper look into them.
His FIP (like ERA, but factors out fielding) is 3.69, which is a good number.
He is able to perform well because his pitches remain similar in terms of the velocity and movement that they possessed last year.
With his quality, he’s able to induce batters to swing at a higher rate of his pitches outside the zone than at almost any other point in his career.
Quintana just needs to throw more strikes in order to avoid walking as many batters. He didn’t have this problem with walks during Spring Training and there’s no reason for it to continue.
There is nothing physically wrong with him. Instead, he’s encountering a lot of bad luck, which is evident in the ridiculously high BABIP (batting average of balls in play) that he’s allowing and that’s contributing to this gross disparity between his ERA and his FIP.
Quintana vs. Texas Batters
Completely unlike Quintana’s first two opponents, Texas matches up poorly with Quintana.
Texas ranks 25th in hitting .207 against left-handed pitchers.
From the lefty Quintana, Ranger batters will see a healthy mixture of curveballs, fastballs, change-ups, and sinkers. He throws each pitch over 20 percent of the time, but none of the pitches as much as 30 percent of the time.
Quintana has always been solid about playing his pitches well off each other, for example alternating between a high fastball and a curveball that changes the batter’s eye level with its low placement.
Against these four pitches from lefties, Texas ranks 26th in slugging.
Unlike Quintana’s first two opponents, the Rangers can be said to have a rather lefty-heavy lineup.
Joey Gallo is a lefty. Its active leader in slugging, Nate Lowe, is also a lefty.
Quintana can shut guys like them down. Lefties are hitting only .143 so far against Quintana.
Mike Foltynewicz
Ranger starter Mike Foltynewicz does not enjoy the same level of variety as Quintana.
The new Ranger pitcher will mix up a fastball, slider and sinker. He throws each pitch with between 20 and 40 percent frequency.
Foltynewicz has been struggling, too, only the underlying metrics like FIP don’t paint a redeeming picture for him like they do for Quintana.
The 0-3 starter will move to 0-4 tonight as he goes against an Angel lineup that ranks 10th in slugging against his three favorite pitches from righties.
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Detroit Tigers
Wednesday, April 21, at 6:40 p.m. ET at Comerica Park in Detroit
Mitch Keller
Pirate starter Mitch Keller relies primarily on his fastball, slider, and curveball. All three pitches combine to make up 95 percent of his arsenal.
His performances thus far have been consistently predictable: he performs well against the teams that do not tend to hit his type of pitches well and he is surer to perform poorly against the teams that do.
Detroit is one of those teams that match up well against Keller because it ranks fourth in slugging against Keller’s three favorite pitches from righties.
The Tigers boast a bevy of batters — like Jeimer Candelario and Willi Castro to name a couple -- who can bat from the opposite side of the plate.
This versatility in personnel is important against a pitcher in Keller who really struggles against guys batting from the left side of the plate.
So far, lefties are hitting .385 and slugging .654 against Keller.
Spencer Turnbull
Detroit starter Spencer Turnbull is well-trained, fit, fresh, healthy, and ready to make his season debut after preparing at an alternate training site after he recovered from COVID.
Turnbull does not have the problem against opposite-handed batters that Keller does.
Last year, lefties hit only .218 and slugged .319 against Turnbull, partly because he possesses a classic weapon against opposite-handed batters with his effective change-up.
Overall, Turnbull promises to be effective today because the Pirates rank 26th in slugging against his three favorite pitches — the fastball, sinker, and slider — from righties.
Tarik Skubal should see some extra pitching time today since Turnbull probably won’t go more than five innings.
Pittsburgh’s lefty-laden lineup will continue to struggle against the lefty Skubal as the Pirates rank 24th in slugging against lefties.
Parlay Verdict
The Angels will outpace Texas with their pitching advantage while Turnbull and company will out-duel the struggling Keller.
For the above reasons, parlay the Angels money-line with the Tigers money-line.
Best Bet: Parlay Angels ML at -166 & Tigers ML at -116 at +198 odds with Heritage
