Thursday Night Football: Best Bets for Week 16
Los Angeles Rams vs. Seattle Seahawks
This is much more than a battle between division rivals. Both teams are 11-3 and remain eager to achieve the number one seed in the NFC – currently, the Rams sit at number one while the Seahawks are at number five. This game will thus have significant consequences for the playoff picture.
Both teams would obviously like to be fully healthy for this matchup, but injuries are inevitable. Most notably, Rams star wide receiver Davante Adams has failed to practice this week due to a hamstring injury. Hamstring injuries are notoriously pesky, so his status is very much up in the air. Seattle’s starting left tackle Charles Cross faces the same fate.
Seattle has an experienced veteran ready to replace Cross while Adams, who leads the NFL in receiving touchdowns, is irreplaceable. For reasons that I will explain, I don’t think that injuries should exercise a decisive influence on our betting choices for this matchup. But Adams’ banged-up condition must solidify our eagerness to invest in the Seahawks.
Thursday Night Odds
Oddsmakers opened this game as a PK where it remains. The Rams have scored over 40 points in each of their last two games and, largely due to their explosiveness on offense, are the recipient of much hype. Media talking heads are currently anointing them as the best team in the NFL. Conversely, folks are down on the Seahawks, who looked much more lackluster while eking out a two-point win over Indianapolis in their last game. This difference in public perception will likely ensure that the spread remains at PK despite the overwhelming details from the first meeting between these teams that substantiate a positive outlook for Seattle, including the bare fact that the Seahawks out-gained Los Angeles 414-249.
Thursday Night Picks (Seahawks PK at -108 with BetOnline)
Led by Mike Macdonald, a defensive-minded coach who had been Baltimore’s defensive coordinator when the Ravens had a top-five defense, the Seahawks can count on a low point total from the Rams. Analytics show the extent to which Macdonald succeeds in limiting the Rams’ offense. As evident, for example, in the Rams’ success rate in their meetings (except for last year’s Week 17 game without the Rams’ starters), Seattle under Macdonald reliably limits the efficiency of Los Angeles’ offense. Macdonald has the right personnel, including a safety duo that is dangerous in coverage, against the run, and at rushing the quarterback, to be both versatile and physical. Supported by strong cornerback play that helps the Seahawks rank seventh in pass defense, Seattle does not need to devote too many resources to stop the opponent’s run game and ranks third against the run. Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford played at home and had Adams healthy when he had his lowest pass yardage total (130) and worst completion percentage (53.6) of the season when he faced Seattle on 11/16.
Seattle would have won in Los Angeles if Sam Darnold had not thrown four interceptions. People speak of the Rams’ pressure, but Darnold recently thrived against a Falcons defense that is one of the best at getting sacks. Even if the Rams’ pressure were as good as it was on 11/16, there is no reason to think that Darnold will fail to make better decisions in the rematch. But, heading into this matchup, the Rams’ sack rate has been declining. Moreover, their cornerback play has been declining. In his last three games, Los Angeles cornerback Cobie Durant has surrendered 11 catches on 14 targets, 168 yards, and four touchdowns.
I’m seeing this weird narrative that Seattle’s offense is struggling, but the Colts deployed a new starting quarterback and dominated time of possession in their loss to Seattle last week. Before last week, the Seahawks had scored 30, 26, and 37 points in their previous respective games. In addition to Seattle’s offense trending in a promising direction, the Rams are looking vulnerable on defense. In its last two games against teams led by their starting quarterback, Los Angeles gave up 34 to Detroit and 31 to Carolina. Seattle’s top wide receiver is coming off two big games and has plenty of support with which to attain a high point total against the Rams, who depended on their last two opponents fielding defenses that rank over 15 spots behind Seattle’s.
The Seahawks have a radically harder schedule after this game and have the revenge factor and the fact that they’re only the five seed in their favor. Motivation-wise, Seattle will have the edge if any team does at all. Matchup-wise, Seattle absolutely has the edge, with its abilities to exploit the Rams’ cornerback group and to lock down Stafford.
Los Angeles’ Puka Nacua Under 94.5 Receiving Yards (-110) Bovada
Seattle ranks number six in DVOA against WR 2s and number one against WR 1s. Puka Nacua is the Rams’ WR 1, and the Seahawks have the personnel to shut him down. They have proven themselves against the best WR 1s, recently limiting Vikings superstar Justin Jefferson to four yards. Without a healthy Adams, the Rams’ pass attack will pose less of a threat in general, making it easier for the Seahawks to focus on Nacua. When these teams first met, Nacua accumulated 75 receiving yards. Logically speaking, one has to expect fewer yards from Nacua in the rematch.
One might worry that the Rams will try to feed Nacua more, but Seattle’s success against WR 1s and the availability of other wide receivers and of their tight ends invalidate this worry – the Rams would be even less competitive in this game if they were to try to force-feed Nacua. In any case, considerations of volume pose no concern because Seattle’s coaching- and personnel-driven success against their offense will limit the number of their possessions.
Los Angeles Rams vs. Seattle Seahawks
This is much more than a battle between division rivals. Both teams are 11-3 and remain eager to achieve the number one seed in the NFC – currently, the Rams sit at number one while the Seahawks are at number five. This game will thus have significant consequences for the playoff picture.
Both teams would obviously like to be fully healthy for this matchup, but injuries are inevitable. Most notably, Rams star wide receiver Davante Adams has failed to practice this week due to a hamstring injury. Hamstring injuries are notoriously pesky, so his status is very much up in the air. Seattle’s starting left tackle Charles Cross faces the same fate.
Seattle has an experienced veteran ready to replace Cross while Adams, who leads the NFL in receiving touchdowns, is irreplaceable. For reasons that I will explain, I don’t think that injuries should exercise a decisive influence on our betting choices for this matchup. But Adams’ banged-up condition must solidify our eagerness to invest in the Seahawks.
Thursday Night Odds
Oddsmakers opened this game as a PK where it remains. The Rams have scored over 40 points in each of their last two games and, largely due to their explosiveness on offense, are the recipient of much hype. Media talking heads are currently anointing them as the best team in the NFL. Conversely, folks are down on the Seahawks, who looked much more lackluster while eking out a two-point win over Indianapolis in their last game. This difference in public perception will likely ensure that the spread remains at PK despite the overwhelming details from the first meeting between these teams that substantiate a positive outlook for Seattle, including the bare fact that the Seahawks out-gained Los Angeles 414-249.
Thursday Night Picks (Seahawks PK at -108 with BetOnline)
Led by Mike Macdonald, a defensive-minded coach who had been Baltimore’s defensive coordinator when the Ravens had a top-five defense, the Seahawks can count on a low point total from the Rams. Analytics show the extent to which Macdonald succeeds in limiting the Rams’ offense. As evident, for example, in the Rams’ success rate in their meetings (except for last year’s Week 17 game without the Rams’ starters), Seattle under Macdonald reliably limits the efficiency of Los Angeles’ offense. Macdonald has the right personnel, including a safety duo that is dangerous in coverage, against the run, and at rushing the quarterback, to be both versatile and physical. Supported by strong cornerback play that helps the Seahawks rank seventh in pass defense, Seattle does not need to devote too many resources to stop the opponent’s run game and ranks third against the run. Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford played at home and had Adams healthy when he had his lowest pass yardage total (130) and worst completion percentage (53.6) of the season when he faced Seattle on 11/16.
Seattle would have won in Los Angeles if Sam Darnold had not thrown four interceptions. People speak of the Rams’ pressure, but Darnold recently thrived against a Falcons defense that is one of the best at getting sacks. Even if the Rams’ pressure were as good as it was on 11/16, there is no reason to think that Darnold will fail to make better decisions in the rematch. But, heading into this matchup, the Rams’ sack rate has been declining. Moreover, their cornerback play has been declining. In his last three games, Los Angeles cornerback Cobie Durant has surrendered 11 catches on 14 targets, 168 yards, and four touchdowns.
I’m seeing this weird narrative that Seattle’s offense is struggling, but the Colts deployed a new starting quarterback and dominated time of possession in their loss to Seattle last week. Before last week, the Seahawks had scored 30, 26, and 37 points in their previous respective games. In addition to Seattle’s offense trending in a promising direction, the Rams are looking vulnerable on defense. In its last two games against teams led by their starting quarterback, Los Angeles gave up 34 to Detroit and 31 to Carolina. Seattle’s top wide receiver is coming off two big games and has plenty of support with which to attain a high point total against the Rams, who depended on their last two opponents fielding defenses that rank over 15 spots behind Seattle’s.
The Seahawks have a radically harder schedule after this game and have the revenge factor and the fact that they’re only the five seed in their favor. Motivation-wise, Seattle will have the edge if any team does at all. Matchup-wise, Seattle absolutely has the edge, with its abilities to exploit the Rams’ cornerback group and to lock down Stafford.
Los Angeles’ Puka Nacua Under 94.5 Receiving Yards (-110) Bovada
Seattle ranks number six in DVOA against WR 2s and number one against WR 1s. Puka Nacua is the Rams’ WR 1, and the Seahawks have the personnel to shut him down. They have proven themselves against the best WR 1s, recently limiting Vikings superstar Justin Jefferson to four yards. Without a healthy Adams, the Rams’ pass attack will pose less of a threat in general, making it easier for the Seahawks to focus on Nacua. When these teams first met, Nacua accumulated 75 receiving yards. Logically speaking, one has to expect fewer yards from Nacua in the rematch.
One might worry that the Rams will try to feed Nacua more, but Seattle’s success against WR 1s and the availability of other wide receivers and of their tight ends invalidate this worry – the Rams would be even less competitive in this game if they were to try to force-feed Nacua. In any case, considerations of volume pose no concern because Seattle’s coaching- and personnel-driven success against their offense will limit the number of their possessions.
