Last Chance Value Picks for Betting Rams vs. Buccaneers
Mike Evans
Over/Under 55.5 Yards
Targets
With the addition of Antonio Brown, there is more variety in Tampa Bay’s wide receiver crew.
Still, as his team’s top receiver, Mike Evans is going to see coverage primarily from Jalen Ramsey.
Ramsey counts as an elite cornerback. He’s only seen 37 targets because quarterbacks don’t want to throw his way.
When he does get targeted, he allows a 51.4 completion percentage and 65.3 passer rating.
So it’s hard for me to imagine Brady wanting to throw much to Evans because he has little reason to do so.
So who’s going to see more targets instead of Evans?
Brady has always liked throwing to the slot. Chris Godwin is healthy and he’s Tampa Bay’s top slot wide receiver.
Plus, Godwin has the easiest matchup, among Tampa Bay’s wide receivers, against Troy Hill.
So I expect Brady to focus on finding Godwin.
The Number
I wanted to stay away from the ‘over’ on Godwin’s yardage total because the number (60.5) still seems too high to me.
I don’t think Tom Brady will have a good game in general — i’ll get more into this later — and Troy Hill isn’t bad.
Now, the over/under is 55.5 for Evans. Ramsey has allowed more than 55 yards one time this season and that was in the season opener.
Jalen Ramsey
Of the cornerbacks against which Evans has exceeded 55 receiving yards, none matches Ramsey in terms of opposing passer rating when targeted.
But Ramsey shows promise also because of one further statistic. He ranks ninth best in yards per reception allowed. Like the entire Rams secondary, he is great at taking away the deep ball.
This last statistic is important because Evans has accumulated a reputation for being a deep threat.
Evans is somebody who likes to run downfield and grab contested catches. But, given this last statistic, we can expect Ramsey to prevent the big play.
Therefore, Ramsey will make Evans work harder for any yards that he accumulates.
Best Bet: Evans Under 55.5 Yards at -114 with Bovada
Robert Woods
Over/Under 49.5 Yards
Bad Season
As measured by yards per game and average yards per reception, Robert Woods is having a down year and probably his worst year as a Ram.
Woods has exceeded 49 yards in four different games.
In the first game, he was covered by a raw rookie making his first NFL start, Dallas’ Trevon Diggs. In general, Diggs had an atrocious start to the season, as measured by stats like opposing completion rate, as he was regularly picked on by opposing quarterbacks.
In the second game, he was covered primarily by Buffalo’s Tre’Davious White. Woods benefitted from participating in a high-scoring game and from being covered by White, who is allowing a 131.6 passer rating when targeted.
In the third game, Woods accumulated 56 of his 71 yards on a single play, his longest of the season.
Lastly, Woods accumulated 85 yards against Miami. In that contest, Goff attempted 61 passes, 24 more than he had at any point of the season. Woods got most of his yards when his team was down 28-10.
So Woods is only reliable against weaker cornerbacks. But he won’t contend with weak cornerbacks tonight.
Carlton Davis
Carlton Davis will stick to Woods tonight on the outside.
Davis has taken massive strides forward this season. HIs improvement in stats like opposing passer rating when targeted provides evidence. This year, he ranks ninth in allowing a 63.3 passer rating.
He regularly faces top opposing wide receivers like Green Bay’s Davante Adams and Chicago’s Allen Robinson.
Those are typically the kind of guys who reach 50 receiving yards when covered by Davis. They are high-volume, top-level wide receivers.
Woods still sees a healthy number of targets. But besides having a bad season, he isn’t a big play-type of receiver as he ranks 94th in average target distance.
Davis’ weakness is the type of wide receiver who can burn him downfield for big gains. But that isn’t Woods’ style.
Best Bet: Woods Under 49.5 Yards at -114 with Bovada
Buccaneers vs. Rams
Over/Under 48
Rams Offense vs. Buccaneers Defense
The Rams want to run the ball in order to set up the pass.
Quarterback Jared Goff loves to attempt play-action passes — he regularly attempts more of these than any other quarterback.
In order to set up an effective play-action, teams need to run the ball well.
So Goff and the offense’s scoring output corresponds with its production on the ground.
The “under” is 5-0 in Ram games when the team runs for fewer than 150 yards.
This trend will continue against a Buccaneer run defense that ranks second in allowing 76.6 yards per game.
Tampa Bay is loaded in its linebacking corps with guys like Devin White, who allow minimal productivity when running backs reach the second level.
Offensive line will also be a relative issue for the Rams.
As measured by average time to throw, Goff likes to hang onto the ball more than most quarterbacks.
Part of the reason for this higher average is the fact that play-action plays take longer to develop.
Time, though, will be hard for Goff to find because he’ll miss starting left tackle Andrew Whitworth to injury.
While Whitworth was healthy, PFF had him ranked as the fifth best left tackle.
His role was huge as the main protector of Goff’s blindside.
Losing him creates flux in the Rams’ offensive line and will reduce its overall quality.
Tampa Bay, which ranks sixth in sack rate, will bring plenty of pass rush to attack Goff.
Tampa Bay Offense vs. Los Angeles Defense
I love the ‘under’ because I think quarterback Tom Brady will also be uncomfortable.
His worst games, as measured by passer rating, came against the Saints (twice) and Bears.
In all three of those games, Brady was sacked three times.
So when pressure is able to get to Brady, he struggles the most as a passer.
After all, he’s not a mobile quarterback who easily dodges opposing pass rushers or throws bullets on the run.
The Rams rank fourth in sack rate, a spot higher than the Saints.
They boast arguably the top defensive lineman in the game in five-time All-Pro Aaron Donald.
Best Bet: Under 48 at -105 with Bovada
Mike Evans
Over/Under 55.5 Yards
Targets
With the addition of Antonio Brown, there is more variety in Tampa Bay’s wide receiver crew.
Still, as his team’s top receiver, Mike Evans is going to see coverage primarily from Jalen Ramsey.
Ramsey counts as an elite cornerback. He’s only seen 37 targets because quarterbacks don’t want to throw his way.
When he does get targeted, he allows a 51.4 completion percentage and 65.3 passer rating.
So it’s hard for me to imagine Brady wanting to throw much to Evans because he has little reason to do so.
So who’s going to see more targets instead of Evans?
Brady has always liked throwing to the slot. Chris Godwin is healthy and he’s Tampa Bay’s top slot wide receiver.
Plus, Godwin has the easiest matchup, among Tampa Bay’s wide receivers, against Troy Hill.
So I expect Brady to focus on finding Godwin.
The Number
I wanted to stay away from the ‘over’ on Godwin’s yardage total because the number (60.5) still seems too high to me.
I don’t think Tom Brady will have a good game in general — i’ll get more into this later — and Troy Hill isn’t bad.
Now, the over/under is 55.5 for Evans. Ramsey has allowed more than 55 yards one time this season and that was in the season opener.
Jalen Ramsey
Of the cornerbacks against which Evans has exceeded 55 receiving yards, none matches Ramsey in terms of opposing passer rating when targeted.
But Ramsey shows promise also because of one further statistic. He ranks ninth best in yards per reception allowed. Like the entire Rams secondary, he is great at taking away the deep ball.
This last statistic is important because Evans has accumulated a reputation for being a deep threat.
Evans is somebody who likes to run downfield and grab contested catches. But, given this last statistic, we can expect Ramsey to prevent the big play.
Therefore, Ramsey will make Evans work harder for any yards that he accumulates.
Best Bet: Evans Under 55.5 Yards at -114 with Bovada
Robert Woods
Over/Under 49.5 Yards
Bad Season
As measured by yards per game and average yards per reception, Robert Woods is having a down year and probably his worst year as a Ram.
Woods has exceeded 49 yards in four different games.
In the first game, he was covered by a raw rookie making his first NFL start, Dallas’ Trevon Diggs. In general, Diggs had an atrocious start to the season, as measured by stats like opposing completion rate, as he was regularly picked on by opposing quarterbacks.
In the second game, he was covered primarily by Buffalo’s Tre’Davious White. Woods benefitted from participating in a high-scoring game and from being covered by White, who is allowing a 131.6 passer rating when targeted.
In the third game, Woods accumulated 56 of his 71 yards on a single play, his longest of the season.
Lastly, Woods accumulated 85 yards against Miami. In that contest, Goff attempted 61 passes, 24 more than he had at any point of the season. Woods got most of his yards when his team was down 28-10.
So Woods is only reliable against weaker cornerbacks. But he won’t contend with weak cornerbacks tonight.
Carlton Davis
Carlton Davis will stick to Woods tonight on the outside.
Davis has taken massive strides forward this season. HIs improvement in stats like opposing passer rating when targeted provides evidence. This year, he ranks ninth in allowing a 63.3 passer rating.
He regularly faces top opposing wide receivers like Green Bay’s Davante Adams and Chicago’s Allen Robinson.
Those are typically the kind of guys who reach 50 receiving yards when covered by Davis. They are high-volume, top-level wide receivers.
Woods still sees a healthy number of targets. But besides having a bad season, he isn’t a big play-type of receiver as he ranks 94th in average target distance.
Davis’ weakness is the type of wide receiver who can burn him downfield for big gains. But that isn’t Woods’ style.
Best Bet: Woods Under 49.5 Yards at -114 with Bovada
Buccaneers vs. Rams
Over/Under 48
Rams Offense vs. Buccaneers Defense
The Rams want to run the ball in order to set up the pass.
Quarterback Jared Goff loves to attempt play-action passes — he regularly attempts more of these than any other quarterback.
In order to set up an effective play-action, teams need to run the ball well.
So Goff and the offense’s scoring output corresponds with its production on the ground.
The “under” is 5-0 in Ram games when the team runs for fewer than 150 yards.
This trend will continue against a Buccaneer run defense that ranks second in allowing 76.6 yards per game.
Tampa Bay is loaded in its linebacking corps with guys like Devin White, who allow minimal productivity when running backs reach the second level.
Offensive line will also be a relative issue for the Rams.
As measured by average time to throw, Goff likes to hang onto the ball more than most quarterbacks.
Part of the reason for this higher average is the fact that play-action plays take longer to develop.
Time, though, will be hard for Goff to find because he’ll miss starting left tackle Andrew Whitworth to injury.
While Whitworth was healthy, PFF had him ranked as the fifth best left tackle.
His role was huge as the main protector of Goff’s blindside.
Losing him creates flux in the Rams’ offensive line and will reduce its overall quality.
Tampa Bay, which ranks sixth in sack rate, will bring plenty of pass rush to attack Goff.
Tampa Bay Offense vs. Los Angeles Defense
I love the ‘under’ because I think quarterback Tom Brady will also be uncomfortable.
His worst games, as measured by passer rating, came against the Saints (twice) and Bears.
In all three of those games, Brady was sacked three times.
So when pressure is able to get to Brady, he struggles the most as a passer.
After all, he’s not a mobile quarterback who easily dodges opposing pass rushers or throws bullets on the run.
The Rams rank fourth in sack rate, a spot higher than the Saints.
They boast arguably the top defensive lineman in the game in five-time All-Pro Aaron Donald.
Best Bet: Under 48 at -105 with Bovada
BOL to us tonight