Rams vs Browns: Week 3 NFL Sunday Night Game Totals Pick
Rams vs Browns
Sunday, September 22 2019 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC) at FirstEnergy Stadium
Odds
Oddsmakers opened the total at 51 points and it has dropped steadily to as low as 47.5 points. One trend to note is that the „under“ is 10-2 in Cleveland’s last 12 night games.
Cleveland’s Pass Attack Is Broken
Under a new head coach, new offensive coordinator, and new primary receiver, Cleveland’s pass attack is struggling.
Its struggles begin with Baker Mayfield, whose passer rating is down 20 points from last year, despite getting to face a low-quality Jets secondary in Week 2.
Mayfield’s struggles derive from issues with style, play-calliing, and chemistry. Regarding style, he’s trying too hard to push the ball downfield.
He’s getting greedy by going for chunk plays even when a check-down would be more appropriate. Currently, he ranks sixth in average intended air yards.
His drop in completion rate and his higher interception rate are consequences of this stylistic tendency. He’s trying to fit balls into tighter windows, which leaves him with less margin of error. What also reduces his margin of error is Cleveland’s increased offensive predictability, featuring less play-action and more 11 personnel.
Another consequence is that Mayfield is taking more time to throw— he ranks third in average seconds to throw. Holding onto the ball makes him more susceptible to pressure especially because this year’s offensive line misses the departed Kevin Zeitler. This pressure encourages him to force more passes or to attempt more difficult passes on the move.
Los Angeles hardly seems like the opponent for Cleveland to fix its pass attack against. The Rams rank fourth in pass defense by DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) thanks to a strong secondary in which veteran safety Eric Weddle has found a new home. Marcus Peters and Aqib Talib are two of the better corners at preventing opposing receivers from gaining separation.
L.A.’s Pass Attack Doesn’t Promise Anything, Either
Jared Goff is resuming his lackluster play from the end of last season, in which he logged a sub-90 passer rating in six of his final eight games (including playoffs). So far this year, Goff’s passer rating is 87.2.
Goff’s two primary weaknesses are arguably downfield throwing and facing pressure. Last year, he was one of the best quarterbacks when throwing from an clean pocket and one of the worst when his pocket wasn’t clean.
His offensive line ranks middle-of-the-road in pass protection based on adjusted sack rate allowed. It will be heavily burdened by a Cleveland pass rush that ranks second in adjusted sack rate. The Browns feature a difference-maker in strong, explosive, and physical defensive end Myles Garrett, who’s tied for the league lead in sacks with four.
Even if his pocket is clean, Goff must contend with a Cleveland secondary that forms a strength of its defense especially thanks to its cornerbacks. One corner to note is Pro Bowler Denzel Ward who has dropped his burn rate from two percent last year to zero percent this year. Another is recent first-round pick Greedy Williams, who leads all rookie corners in coverage rating.
Clock-Draining Alternatives To Passing Downfield
Whereas Baker will try, but mostly fail, to complete plays downfield, Jared Goff won’t even try for chunk plays. Last week, for example, only one of Goff’s 28 pass attempts spanned at least 20 yards. Last week was no exception for Goff, who ranks 25th in average intended air yards.
I expect a lot of running — and, hence, clock-draining — from both teams. For all of Cleveland’s downfield passing ambition, it has featured Nick Chubb even more by getting him more touches out of the backfield.
On the other side, the Rams also know that run defense is a relative weakness for Cleveland, meaning we will see the Rams focus on Todd Gurley.
Best Bet: Under 49 at -125 odds with Pinnacle
Rams vs Browns
Sunday, September 22 2019 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC) at FirstEnergy Stadium
Odds
Oddsmakers opened the total at 51 points and it has dropped steadily to as low as 47.5 points. One trend to note is that the „under“ is 10-2 in Cleveland’s last 12 night games.
Cleveland’s Pass Attack Is Broken
Under a new head coach, new offensive coordinator, and new primary receiver, Cleveland’s pass attack is struggling.
Its struggles begin with Baker Mayfield, whose passer rating is down 20 points from last year, despite getting to face a low-quality Jets secondary in Week 2.
Mayfield’s struggles derive from issues with style, play-calliing, and chemistry. Regarding style, he’s trying too hard to push the ball downfield.
He’s getting greedy by going for chunk plays even when a check-down would be more appropriate. Currently, he ranks sixth in average intended air yards.
His drop in completion rate and his higher interception rate are consequences of this stylistic tendency. He’s trying to fit balls into tighter windows, which leaves him with less margin of error. What also reduces his margin of error is Cleveland’s increased offensive predictability, featuring less play-action and more 11 personnel.
Another consequence is that Mayfield is taking more time to throw— he ranks third in average seconds to throw. Holding onto the ball makes him more susceptible to pressure especially because this year’s offensive line misses the departed Kevin Zeitler. This pressure encourages him to force more passes or to attempt more difficult passes on the move.
Los Angeles hardly seems like the opponent for Cleveland to fix its pass attack against. The Rams rank fourth in pass defense by DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) thanks to a strong secondary in which veteran safety Eric Weddle has found a new home. Marcus Peters and Aqib Talib are two of the better corners at preventing opposing receivers from gaining separation.
L.A.’s Pass Attack Doesn’t Promise Anything, Either
Jared Goff is resuming his lackluster play from the end of last season, in which he logged a sub-90 passer rating in six of his final eight games (including playoffs). So far this year, Goff’s passer rating is 87.2.
Goff’s two primary weaknesses are arguably downfield throwing and facing pressure. Last year, he was one of the best quarterbacks when throwing from an clean pocket and one of the worst when his pocket wasn’t clean.
His offensive line ranks middle-of-the-road in pass protection based on adjusted sack rate allowed. It will be heavily burdened by a Cleveland pass rush that ranks second in adjusted sack rate. The Browns feature a difference-maker in strong, explosive, and physical defensive end Myles Garrett, who’s tied for the league lead in sacks with four.
Even if his pocket is clean, Goff must contend with a Cleveland secondary that forms a strength of its defense especially thanks to its cornerbacks. One corner to note is Pro Bowler Denzel Ward who has dropped his burn rate from two percent last year to zero percent this year. Another is recent first-round pick Greedy Williams, who leads all rookie corners in coverage rating.
Clock-Draining Alternatives To Passing Downfield
Whereas Baker will try, but mostly fail, to complete plays downfield, Jared Goff won’t even try for chunk plays. Last week, for example, only one of Goff’s 28 pass attempts spanned at least 20 yards. Last week was no exception for Goff, who ranks 25th in average intended air yards.
I expect a lot of running — and, hence, clock-draining — from both teams. For all of Cleveland’s downfield passing ambition, it has featured Nick Chubb even more by getting him more touches out of the backfield.
On the other side, the Rams also know that run defense is a relative weakness for Cleveland, meaning we will see the Rams focus on Todd Gurley.
Best Bet: Under 49 at -125 odds with Pinnacle
