Top Super Bowl LVI Parlay: A Rams-Bengals Bet That Pays +271
Los Angeles Rams vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Sunday, February 13, 2022 at 6:30 p.m. ET (NBC) at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California
Too Good To Be True
The running narrative on the Bengals is that their offensive line is awful.
On the other side, the Rams on their defensive line have perhaps the best player in all of football in repeat All-Pro selection Aaron Donald plus proven pass-rusher Von Miller.
It's easy to think that the Ram pass rush will master the Bengal pass protection, thereby making Bengal quarterback Joe Burrow's life miserable behind the pocket.
Football, though, is more than a calculation of sheer ability., which is why this apparent mismatch is too good to be true.
It is true that the Bengal offensive line is terrible.
Burrow, for example, was sacked nine times in his team's victory over Tennessee.
But Cincinnati will be able to make adjustments in order to render meaningless the low quality of its offensive linemen.
Rams' Defensive Style
The way that the Rams play defense will allow Cincinnati's offense to make important adjustments.
They typically like to rush with five defensive linemen instead of four.
If you look at video footage or drawings of how the Ram defense looks when it has five defensive linemen rushing, then you'll see that ample space exists on the second level of the defense.
Cincinnati will want to get rid of the ball quickly in order to negate the Ram pass rush and to exploit the space available on the second level of L.A.'s defense.
This is precisely what Burrow did in his team's triumph in Kansas City.
Consider, for example, his team's drive in overtime. In that drive, the Bengals only executed runs and short passes.
With high-volume ball-carrier Joe Mixon, the Bengals will force the Rams to keep employing five defensive linemen.
Against the Chiefs, Mixon also contributed three of Cincinnati's six running back catches.
His versatility -- along with the pass-catching of Samaje Perine -- will help Burrow get rid of the ball quickly and effectively.
Ram Pass Protection vs. Bengal Pass Defense
L.A. boasts one of the NFL's best pass protection units.
It ranks sixth in limiting the percentage at which it allows sacks.
This statistic is all the more impressive when you consider the respect in which Ram quarterback Matt Stafford differs from Burrow in Cincinnati's most recent play.
Stafford ranks ninth in deep ball attempts. Despite creating this disadvantage for the Ram pass-blockers -- who will have to protect Stafford longer as Ram wide receivers make their way downfield -- the L.A. sack rate is as strong as it is.
The Ram pass protection is a decisive factor because the Bengals' pass rush forms the strongest element of its entire defense.
Without an effective Bengal pass rush, you have quarterbacks like Jet Mike White and Charger Justin Herbert being able to amass tremendous yardage through the air while leading their team to 30 or even 40-point outputs.
Hence, despite the likes of Trey Hendrickson, the Bengal pass defense ranks 26th.
Side Verdict
While both offenses will be able to sustain drives -- Cincinnati with its balanced offense and short-passing game, L.A. with its superstar-laden passing attack featuring the historically successful Cooper Kupp -- one offense will have more trouble.
I think the Bengal offense, which mustered 19 points in the sack-fest against Tennessee and 24 in regulation in Kansas City, will have to do more grind work in order to withstand the Ram pass rush and get downfield.
I see L.A. putting over 30 points on the Bengals because it has the comfort running the ball that K.C. lacked when the Bengals dropped extra guys into coverage.
The room downfield and the time behind the pocket will be there for the Ram pass attack while the Bengals will grind out effective drives but won't keep pace.
Best Bet: Parlay Rams -4 at -108 & Over 48.5 at -108 at +271 odds with Heritage
Los Angeles Rams vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Sunday, February 13, 2022 at 6:30 p.m. ET (NBC) at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California
Too Good To Be True
The running narrative on the Bengals is that their offensive line is awful.
On the other side, the Rams on their defensive line have perhaps the best player in all of football in repeat All-Pro selection Aaron Donald plus proven pass-rusher Von Miller.
It's easy to think that the Ram pass rush will master the Bengal pass protection, thereby making Bengal quarterback Joe Burrow's life miserable behind the pocket.
Football, though, is more than a calculation of sheer ability., which is why this apparent mismatch is too good to be true.
It is true that the Bengal offensive line is terrible.
Burrow, for example, was sacked nine times in his team's victory over Tennessee.
But Cincinnati will be able to make adjustments in order to render meaningless the low quality of its offensive linemen.
Rams' Defensive Style
The way that the Rams play defense will allow Cincinnati's offense to make important adjustments.
They typically like to rush with five defensive linemen instead of four.
If you look at video footage or drawings of how the Ram defense looks when it has five defensive linemen rushing, then you'll see that ample space exists on the second level of the defense.
Cincinnati will want to get rid of the ball quickly in order to negate the Ram pass rush and to exploit the space available on the second level of L.A.'s defense.
This is precisely what Burrow did in his team's triumph in Kansas City.
Consider, for example, his team's drive in overtime. In that drive, the Bengals only executed runs and short passes.
With high-volume ball-carrier Joe Mixon, the Bengals will force the Rams to keep employing five defensive linemen.
Against the Chiefs, Mixon also contributed three of Cincinnati's six running back catches.
His versatility -- along with the pass-catching of Samaje Perine -- will help Burrow get rid of the ball quickly and effectively.
Ram Pass Protection vs. Bengal Pass Defense
L.A. boasts one of the NFL's best pass protection units.
It ranks sixth in limiting the percentage at which it allows sacks.
This statistic is all the more impressive when you consider the respect in which Ram quarterback Matt Stafford differs from Burrow in Cincinnati's most recent play.
Stafford ranks ninth in deep ball attempts. Despite creating this disadvantage for the Ram pass-blockers -- who will have to protect Stafford longer as Ram wide receivers make their way downfield -- the L.A. sack rate is as strong as it is.
The Ram pass protection is a decisive factor because the Bengals' pass rush forms the strongest element of its entire defense.
Without an effective Bengal pass rush, you have quarterbacks like Jet Mike White and Charger Justin Herbert being able to amass tremendous yardage through the air while leading their team to 30 or even 40-point outputs.
Hence, despite the likes of Trey Hendrickson, the Bengal pass defense ranks 26th.
Side Verdict
While both offenses will be able to sustain drives -- Cincinnati with its balanced offense and short-passing game, L.A. with its superstar-laden passing attack featuring the historically successful Cooper Kupp -- one offense will have more trouble.
I think the Bengal offense, which mustered 19 points in the sack-fest against Tennessee and 24 in regulation in Kansas City, will have to do more grind work in order to withstand the Ram pass rush and get downfield.
I see L.A. putting over 30 points on the Bengals because it has the comfort running the ball that K.C. lacked when the Bengals dropped extra guys into coverage.
The room downfield and the time behind the pocket will be there for the Ram pass attack while the Bengals will grind out effective drives but won't keep pace.
Best Bet: Parlay Rams -4 at -108 & Over 48.5 at -108 at +271 odds with Heritage
