Saints' Defense Will Make Sheep Out Of Rams' Offense
Rams (14-3 SU, 8-7-2 ATS, 8-8-1 O/U) at Saints (14-3 SU, 10-7 ATS, 7-10 O/U)
Sunday, January 20, 3:05 p.m. ET (FOX)
NFL Pick: Rams TT Under
One counter to my pick is the Rams' rushing offense, which accrued 273 yards against Dallas' highly-ranked run defense. Based on factors like how the Cowboys lined up at the line of scrimmage and which hand a certain defensive lineman had on the ground, Dallas tipped off to the Rams' offense what they were going to do. L.A. dominated Dallas because of this knowledge. One can only assume that the Saints won't allow themselves to be so predictable on defense.
New Orleans has one of the best rush defenses. In the regular season, it was tied for lowest average opposing YPC and held the likes of Todd Gurley, Saquon Barkley, and Ezekiel Elliott each to one of their worst performances. Zeke, for example, was limited on 13 of his carries to two yards or more. He needed until the fourth quarter, when New Orleans' defense was gassed because its offense couldn't possess the ball much, to achieve a run longer than seven yards.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="de"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Stat of the Day: New Orleans <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Saints?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc^tfw">#Saints</a> linebacker Demario Davis made his playoff debut in Sunday's victory over the Eagles and led the Saints in tackles with eight. <a href="https://t.co/JtT7bMD2YS">pic.twitter.com/JtT7bMD2YS</a></p>— New Orleans Saints (@Saints) <a href=" ">15. Januar 2019</a></blockquote>
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Their linebackers excel at penetrating opposing defenses. Demario Davis and A.J. Klein combined for 18 tackles for loss in the regular season. Davis was a huge acquisition in the offseason because the depth in New Orleans' front seven allows it now to employ defensive sets that are more conducive to stopping the run. Defensive end Cameron Jordan will start in the Pro Bowl after leading the team with 18 tackles for loss. While the Saints will miss Sheldon Rankins, David Onyemata is a competent backup at defensive tackle with six tackles for loss, despite starting only four games.
The Rams' success on the ground masked an ongoing issue, the poor play of quarterback Jared Goff. Opposing defenses appear to have figured out how to stop the Rams' pass attack. In four of his past six games, including the win against Dallas, Goff's passer rating has been under 80, although his early-season success has kept his overall passer rating above 100. The two exceptions came against basement dwellers San Francisco and Arizona in Weeks 16 and 17, respectively.
Goff's struggles haven't only come against the top-ranked Bears' pass defense, but against the Eagles, which rank 15th in pass defense, against Dallas, which ranks 16th, and against Detroit, which ranks 31st. Part of his demise derives from the injury to Cooper Kupp, who had caught 40 passes for 566 yards in seven games played. When the Saints and Rams played in the regular season, a 45-35 New Orleans victory in Week 9, Kupp was L.A.'s second-leading receiver, accruing six receptions for 89 yards and a touchdown.
The two key changes that defenses have made have been to avoid biting on playactions as well as L.A.'s pre-snap tactics and to take away L.A.'s deep ball, instead forcing the Rams to work thier way methodically down the field. In Goff's four bad games down the stretch, he averaged no more than 6.6 YPA, although he averaged 8.4 in the regular season. New Orleans' pass defense is also helped by the acquisition of Eli Apple, who jells with former Ohio State teammate and last year's Rookie of the Year Marshon Lattimore. The Saints' starkly improving secondary is helped by a defensive line that ranks fourth in adjusted sack rate.
Overall, New Orleans' defense is trending in the opposite direction of L.A.'s offense. In eight of their last nine games, the Saints have allowed 17 points or fewer. The one exception was a more desperate and stacked Pittsburgh. Expect that trend to continue against the Rams.
Rams (14-3 SU, 8-7-2 ATS, 8-8-1 O/U) at Saints (14-3 SU, 10-7 ATS, 7-10 O/U)
Sunday, January 20, 3:05 p.m. ET (FOX)
NFL Pick: Rams TT Under
One counter to my pick is the Rams' rushing offense, which accrued 273 yards against Dallas' highly-ranked run defense. Based on factors like how the Cowboys lined up at the line of scrimmage and which hand a certain defensive lineman had on the ground, Dallas tipped off to the Rams' offense what they were going to do. L.A. dominated Dallas because of this knowledge. One can only assume that the Saints won't allow themselves to be so predictable on defense.
New Orleans has one of the best rush defenses. In the regular season, it was tied for lowest average opposing YPC and held the likes of Todd Gurley, Saquon Barkley, and Ezekiel Elliott each to one of their worst performances. Zeke, for example, was limited on 13 of his carries to two yards or more. He needed until the fourth quarter, when New Orleans' defense was gassed because its offense couldn't possess the ball much, to achieve a run longer than seven yards.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="de"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Stat of the Day: New Orleans <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Saints?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc^tfw">#Saints</a> linebacker Demario Davis made his playoff debut in Sunday's victory over the Eagles and led the Saints in tackles with eight. <a href="https://t.co/JtT7bMD2YS">pic.twitter.com/JtT7bMD2YS</a></p>— New Orleans Saints (@Saints) <a href=" ">15. Januar 2019</a></blockquote>
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Their linebackers excel at penetrating opposing defenses. Demario Davis and A.J. Klein combined for 18 tackles for loss in the regular season. Davis was a huge acquisition in the offseason because the depth in New Orleans' front seven allows it now to employ defensive sets that are more conducive to stopping the run. Defensive end Cameron Jordan will start in the Pro Bowl after leading the team with 18 tackles for loss. While the Saints will miss Sheldon Rankins, David Onyemata is a competent backup at defensive tackle with six tackles for loss, despite starting only four games.
The Rams' success on the ground masked an ongoing issue, the poor play of quarterback Jared Goff. Opposing defenses appear to have figured out how to stop the Rams' pass attack. In four of his past six games, including the win against Dallas, Goff's passer rating has been under 80, although his early-season success has kept his overall passer rating above 100. The two exceptions came against basement dwellers San Francisco and Arizona in Weeks 16 and 17, respectively.
Goff's struggles haven't only come against the top-ranked Bears' pass defense, but against the Eagles, which rank 15th in pass defense, against Dallas, which ranks 16th, and against Detroit, which ranks 31st. Part of his demise derives from the injury to Cooper Kupp, who had caught 40 passes for 566 yards in seven games played. When the Saints and Rams played in the regular season, a 45-35 New Orleans victory in Week 9, Kupp was L.A.'s second-leading receiver, accruing six receptions for 89 yards and a touchdown.
The two key changes that defenses have made have been to avoid biting on playactions as well as L.A.'s pre-snap tactics and to take away L.A.'s deep ball, instead forcing the Rams to work thier way methodically down the field. In Goff's four bad games down the stretch, he averaged no more than 6.6 YPA, although he averaged 8.4 in the regular season. New Orleans' pass defense is also helped by the acquisition of Eli Apple, who jells with former Ohio State teammate and last year's Rookie of the Year Marshon Lattimore. The Saints' starkly improving secondary is helped by a defensive line that ranks fourth in adjusted sack rate.
Overall, New Orleans' defense is trending in the opposite direction of L.A.'s offense. In eight of their last nine games, the Saints have allowed 17 points or fewer. The one exception was a more desperate and stacked Pittsburgh. Expect that trend to continue against the Rams.
