Ramble's Week 6 CFB

RambleOn

RambleOn

The Law of Winning
Week 1: 1-1 (.1 units)
Week 2: 3-0 +3 units
Week 3: 3-4-2 (1.4 units)
Week 4: 0-3 (3.3 units)
Week 5: 8-12-1
Overall: 15-20-3 (4.95 units)

One so far...

Locked in:

FAU +138 (.5 unit) LOSS
Boise St -14 1st H WINNER
Boise St 2nd H Under 26.5 (.25 units) WINNER
USF 2nd H -7 (.75 units)
Oregon St +6 2nd H (.5 unit)
 Utah -4.5/UCF -6.5 (.5 unit)
Ole Miss -2.5 (2 units)
UCLA -17
Utah -10 (-130) (BAR)


Leans:

Maryland -14
Toledo +7
Vanderbilt +4.5
Navy +5
Army +19
UL Laf -1.5
UAB +5
Miami -2.5
FAU +3.5



Will be adding as the week progresses. :cheers:
 
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I really thought the Ole Miss line was going to be too jacked for me to play it this week. I honestly thought we were going to start this year out 4-0 and lose to Florida, and we started out 2-2 and beat Florida. Not sure which outcome I would be happier with in all honesty. Bottom line here is that our two losses are by a combined 9 pts. If you didn't watch the game, we were leading Wake Forrest with 1 minute to go, and Wake promptly drove the field and kicked a last second FG. Against Vandy, we had SIX, yes, SIX turnovers and still were in the game until the end until we fumbled the balll on the ONE yard line going in for what should have been the winning scores. I told ETG I needed to see what Ole Miss did this weekend against Florida, to see if we had given up or not after the close losses. Obviously, the Vandy game was an aberration, as we looked pretty damn amazing in the win over Florida in the Swamp. A lot of heart these Ole Miss kids have, in my opinion. Houston Nutt's play calling has changed everything in Oxford, and I think we see good things for this team from here on out.

Well, that really doesn't help anyone but bottom line is that Ole Miss wins this game. I haven't seen SC play a complete game and I feel that Ole Miss defense can cause some problems and force SC to play from behind, which I don't think they're going to be able to do very well. This team is stoked and this is Homecoming in Oxford. I will be attending the game and screaming Hotty Toddy until my lungs no longer work, en route to a victory. :shake:
 
Like it, Ramble. GL. Can't decide whether to attend this game or the Ole Miss/AU game. Can only pick one to go to. Gotta love that Grove...
 
Reposting some thoughts from ETG's thread:

Not trying to be HOMERISH, but PLEASE tell me what you see in SC here.

Getting 7, maybe. But +2.5?

Guys, Ole Miss is a damn good 3-2 team. We could be 5-0 at this point. And no, don't get me wrong, I'm saying saying "what if" and "could have" showing bias. From a capping perspective, I think this fact is very important. If we WERE 5-0, and had just beat Fla, would the Rebs really be laying -2.5 here? No, not even close. We'd be laying at LEAST 6.5 here. Despite the two close losses, this Ole Miss team is the same team as that 5-0 team. A last second drive to lose by a FG in one loss, and an uncharacteristic 6 turnover game where we were in it the whole game doesn't change anything. I think the Rebels showed at the Swamp that they WERE that 5-0 team and not just a semi-good 3-2 team, if that makes any sense. I would LOVE for someone to tell me how picking SC to win in Oxford for Homecoming when the team is this high is a good bet.

And don't tell me "LET DOWN", because these kids have had TWO let down games already. :shake:
 
Adding some leans:

Maryland -14
Toledo +7
Vanderbilt +4.5
Navy +5
Army +19
UL Laf -1.5
UAB +5
Miami -2.5
 
TopDaddy said:
Like it, Ramble. GL. Can't decide whether to attend this game or the Ole Miss/AU game. Can only pick one to go to. Gotta love that Grove...
Click to expand...

TD -

I think you should come to this one. Auburn is a bigger game, but this Homecoming is going to be special after the win over Florida. It's going to be a fucking hellatious weekend. I'm probably heading up Thursday night. I bartended all through college so I should have some beers waiting for me when I get there. :shake:
 
i like ole miss ramble...think they are very solid and they'll be able to score on scar, and it's tough for scar to win a shootout...

md - i think the line is about right here, but i'd lean your way if i had to play this one as i don't know how virginia is going to score many points...i'm still not a huge fan of md, but i think va is the worst bcs team

toledo - should be a close, high scoring affair. always love getting points in the glass bowl at night. this is a good play that almost made my card, but i think toledo has to start strong, which is something they haven't been doing well, even in that fresno game that they had a chance to win. they're not a very good team, and playing a bad defense at a very tough venue to play will help them quite a bit, but i'm not sure it will help them get over the hump as ball state has been winning and covering with a bad defense...i might play the over if the number is right

i like navy...seems like a solid play. they've been a good bet away from home and this is set up to be a very close game...i just personally haven't had a good read on this air force team and i haven't gotten a chance to watch them much this year...i'd lean navy

army - just not good. not ready to back them, but don't think tulane is ready to lay this many either....no interest, but would prob play tulane gun to my head

ull - i actually lean the other way here. think ull has been playing over their heads and have virtually nothing defensively. ul monroe was the last of potential plays that was off my card

uab - should be a close game. i've had memphis rated higher than what they actually are, but even i'm still not convinced they win this by a td...line is very sharp imo

miami - i like this one; was surprised not to see this as a pk though...prob take the home team if i had to but it's tough one to make a play either way because i think the turnovers are going to be huge, which is obviously tough to cap

fau - i like this one too...fau should be able to score at will; i just have some defensive concerns and mtsu a very wishy washy type of team...think you're on the right side here with this lean

gl this week ramble:cheers:
 
Thanks a ton Broadway. :shake:

Check this out about Ole Miss:


WHAT TO WATCH FOR: This game will be the 81st Homecoming game at Ole Miss since 1924 ... The Rebels are 65-13-2 (.825 winning pct.) all-time in Homecoming games and are riding an 11-game win streak on Homecoming ... The Rebels are shooting for back-to-back SEC victories for the first time since 2004 ... Ole Miss is off to its best start since 2003 and looking to equal its most wins since that season ... The Rebels are facing their third and final SEC Eastern Division foe of the regular season ... The Ole Miss offense is third in the SEC with 386.4 yards per outing ... Jamarca Sanford is this week’s SEC Defensive Player of the Week.


I knew we were good on Homecoming, but not THAT good. 11 straight and 85% overall. Let down game? Give me a fucking break. This is a huge game for the Rebs and they will be up for it. :shake:
 
You Rebel fans kill me. I work with one and I told him Friday in the break room it would be a close game at Florida and to tune in because I was calling for the upset (in jest fwiw). I did expect a one score game though. So he goes on and on about Vandy and how bad it hurts and screw the Rebels. He comes in this AM and its Hotty Toddy this and we should be undefeated etc etc.

ANYWAY, you posted above that Vandy was up with 1 min to go as if Wake just robbed you with a last second comeback. Didn't Ole Miss just comeback on Wake after being down and then let Wake catch right back up in under a minute? I guess I am just saying two ways to look at that loss. Also, how about that last series in the first half in the Swamp. Does that not give you at least some skepticism about how your team will perform this week?

AGAIN, not taking away anything from the tremendous victory at Florida but did Ole Miss steal that game as much as Florida sort of gave it away?

With that said I would back Ole Miss before I took the Cocks.
 
Ramble I sure like Kentucky this weekend. What you think. I think Kentucky keeps it close especially with a possible let down spot for Bama. Don't think KU wins but keeps it close.Whats your opinion on this one.
 
PURPLE & GOLD said:
You Rebel fans kill me. I work with one and I told him Friday in the break room it would be a close game at Florida and to tune in because I was calling for the upset (in jest fwiw). I did expect a one score game though. So he goes on and on about Vandy and how bad it hurts and screw the Rebels. He comes in this AM and its Hotty Toddy this and we should be undefeated etc etc.

ANYWAY, you posted above that Vandy was up with 1 min to go as if Wake just robbed you with a last second comeback. Didn't Ole Miss just comeback on Wake after being down and then let Wake catch right back up in under a minute? I guess I am just saying two ways to look at that loss. Also, how about that last series in the first half in the Swamp. Does that not give you at least some skepticism about how your team will perform this week?

AGAIN, not taking away anything from the tremendous victory at Florida but did Ole Miss steal that game as much as Florida sort of gave it away?

With that said I would back Ole Miss before I took the Cocks.
Click to expand...

P&G -

You missed the whole point of my post. Like I said above, I'm not saying "shoulda woulda" meaning we SHOULD be 5-0. The Wake game was back and forth for the entire game, and so was the Florida game. We were actually leading Vandy 17-0 to start the game. My point was that we COULD have won both of those games, meaning from a capping persepctive I think it is beneficial to look at us from a 5-0 perspective. Does that make sense? It's not like Wake manhandled us and Vandy dog-whipped us. We were winning the Wake game until 3 seconds left on the clock. We had 6 turnovers against Vandy and still were in the game until the end. Those types of losses don't look as bad as if they both rolled over us. Looking at it from that perspective, I think -2.5 is short at home against SC, when if we had lucked into those 2 wins, we would be laying 6 or more. :shake:
 
nawlins51 said:
Ramble I sure like Kentucky this weekend. What you think. I think Kentucky keeps it close especially with a possible let down spot for Bama. Don't think KU wins but keeps it close.Whats your opinion on this one.
Click to expand...

No, I don't think this is a "let down" for Alabama, nawlins. I'm not even sure I believe in "let downs". Maybe a team has a let down if they have no business being in a game and lucking into a win, the next game they perform poorly and maybe the first game was simply lucky? Remember the line in the Bama/UGA game was ALL based on public perception, imo. There were MANY who thought UGA would roll Bama. I had Bama ML, and wasn't surprised when they won the game. Surprised that they dominated 31-0 to start, yes, but the win was predictable. Bama is a better team than many give them credit for and I'm not betting against them at ANY time in the near future until I see some chinks in their armor. All I can say badly about their Saturday performance is that they didn't play a complete game. Luckily so, because I took UGA -7 2nd H knowing they would come back. UGA was too talented not to. Anyway, those are just my thoughts. I think Bama continues to be undervalued and I'll continue to back them until they show me otherwise. I know thats a "ramble" for lack of a better word, but basically for a "let down" situation I have to see a team that didn't deserve it get the win, and I think Bama deserved every damn bit of theirs. :shake:
 
I was really just making fun of the guy I work with.
He said "Screw the Rebels" Friday afternoon cause of the Vandy loss.
He comes by my desk this morning Whistling Dixie. He was FIRED UP!
In his mind Ole Miss is 5-0. Talk about a great coaching matchup.
Spurrier and Nutt will both be ready to get the W in this one.

As for Bama, I agree they WERE undervalued but I expect alot of SU wins with ATS losses coming their way. Saban has a lot to do with why you cashed -7 2nd H for Georgia. Saban will milk a 3 point lead starting in the 2nd Qtr. It WILL bite Bama in the ass just wait and see.
 
PURPLE & GOLD said:
I was really just making fun of the guy I work with.
He said "Screw the Rebels" Friday afternoon cause of the Vandy loss.
He comes by my desk this morning Whistling Dixie. He was FIRED UP!
In his mind Ole Miss is 5-0. Talk about a great coaching matchup.
Spurrier and Nutt will both be ready to get the W in this one.

As for Bama, I agree they WERE undervalued but I expect alot of SU wins with ATS losses coming their way. Saban has a lot to do with why you cashed -7 2nd H for Georgia. Saban will milk a 3 point lead starting in the 2nd Qtr. It WILL bite Bama in the ass just wait and see.
Click to expand...

Yes, it's hard to be an Ole Miss fan these days, so we have our share of fair-weather ones.

I'm sure Alabama is going to have some ATS losses, but I won't bet against them to find out.
 
I've come to realize that I'm just not a good football capper, and I'm going to quit telling myself I am. I do poorly in NFL and make bad decisions in college. College basketball is the only sport I manage a profit at almost every season.

That being said, I'm done wasting my time when I'm just going to lose money. If I have a strong opinion, I'll post it, but I'm going to tail from now on and see what happens. :shake:
 
All we can do is cap the game ramble ... we cant run out there and knock down the hail mary for them....
 
Thanks BAR and VK. Was really pissed last night. Not a whole lot of $ lost, but when the breaks are going against you, you feel like it's all a waste.

Adding

Boise St -14 1st H (etg tail)

Even though I capped this out, I'm going to post this as an etg tail, haha.
 
Cool, I didn't realize that you were on it as well....NICE!

:cheers:

As always, :popcorn:
 
Ramble - you start looking into tomorrow night any more at this point? In so, any leans? Reading into some chit' now on my end.
 
RambleOn said:
Thanks BAR and VK. Was really pissed last night. Not a whole lot of $ lost, but when the breaks are going against you, you feel like it's all a waste.

Adding

Boise St -14 1st H (etg tail)

Even though I capped this out, I'm going to post this as an etg tail, haha.
Click to expand...

I feel the same way at times as I have put in a lot of work to be down 5+ units on the year.

Nothing you can do about FAU last night though.

Good to see you hit the Boise 1st H - you certainly deserved it.

Looking forward to killing it in hoops soon. :cheers:
 
Dmoney416 said:
I feel the same way at times as I have put in a lot of work to be down 5+ units on the year.

Nothing you can do about FAU last night though.

Good to see you hit the Boise 1st H - you certainly deserved it.

Looking forward to killing it in hoops soon. :cheers:
Click to expand...

I feel you, DMoney. Hell you work harder than I ever have at college football. Sucks to devote so much time and just not get the breaks. I'm sure we'll turn it around.

Can't wait for college basketball. Ended the year great with Kansas to win it all at +400 or so and ready to make some more money this year. Ordering my Blue Ribbon soon.
 
JPicks said:
Great night Ramble. Hope you don't hang up the cleats.
Click to expand...

Thanks JPicks.

Really wasn't meaning I was going to quit, just quit thinking that I am good at betting football. I love it and I understand it, the situations, and the lines, but don't seem to make good decisions when it comes to adding to my card. My leans went 7-1 last week, mostly dogs, but my played games went 0-4. That absolutely sucks knowing I left money on the table.

Anyway, even if I did mean I was going to quit, I've threatened that so many times there is no reason to believe me. :36_11_6:
 
RambleOn said:
Thanks JPicks.

Really wasn't meaning I was going to quit, just quit thinking that I am good at betting football. I love it and I understand it, the situations, and the lines, but don't seem to make good decisions when it comes to adding to my card. My leans went 7-1 last week, mostly dogs, but my played games went 0-4. That absolutely sucks knowing I left money on the table.

Anyway, even if I did mean I was going to quit, I've threatened that so many times there is no reason to believe me. :36_11_6:
Click to expand...


All my ex-girlfriends used to do this with suicide .. they never went through with it either ....

nice rebound tonight .
 
Oregon St 2ND HALF was my only winner last night.

Adding:

BYU -28
Marshall +3.5

I've got 4 plays left for the weekend. 3-1 is the worst I will accept out of BYU, Marshall, UCLA, and Ole Miss. Anything worse, and the ship is heading back to the dock until college basketball.

Keep up the good work, those that are winning week after week. I just can't seem to do it.
 
RambleOn said:
No, I don't think this is a "let down" for Alabama, nawlins. I'm not even sure I believe in "let downs". Maybe a team has a let down if they have no business being in a game and lucking into a win, the next game they perform poorly and maybe the first game was simply lucky? Remember the line in the Bama/UGA game was ALL based on public perception, imo. There were MANY who thought UGA would roll Bama. I had Bama ML, and wasn't surprised when they won the game. Surprised that they dominated 31-0 to start, yes, but the win was predictable. Bama is a better team than many give them credit for and I'm not betting against them at ANY time in the near future until I see some chinks in their armor. All I can say badly about their Saturday performance is that they didn't play a complete game. Luckily so, because I took UGA -7 2nd H knowing they would come back. UGA was too talented not to. Anyway, those are just my thoughts. I think Bama continues to be undervalued and I'll continue to back them until they show me otherwise. I know thats a "ramble" for lack of a better word, but basically for a "let down" situation I have to see a team that didn't deserve it get the win, and I think Bama deserved every damn bit of theirs. :shake:
Click to expand...

Thanks Ramble.I may pass on this game and just watch it. Personally I am not sold on Bama.The question I have been asking myself are- Was Georgia overrated?
With that said I just might watch this one before I fade Bama. Kentucky has been playing well and so has Bama. If Bama comes out and destroy's KU then I will definitley believe.
Ramble thanks for answering my question buddy.
 
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